Saturday, July 14, 2012

Thoughts on the Bristol White Sox


A couple of days ago I included some of my thoughts and observations about a number of players from the Burlington Royals, and today I am going to discuss what I saw from their opponents from July 4-6, the Bristol White Sox.  As I mentioned previously, I wrote a feature article on the White Sox’s first-round draft pick, Courtney Hawkins for Baseball America (link). 

The BA article was predominately positive, as it highlighted Hawkins’ raw tools and potential for future success.  Indeed, there is much to like about Hawkins.  Like Starling, Hawkins’ body immediately stands out.  However, unlike Starling, Hawkins does not need to add and probably should not add more muscle mass at this point in his career.  The 18-year-old is listed at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, which definitely appeared accurate in person.  Based on his size and athleticism alone, one can easily project power in Hawkins’ future, and a scout in attendance noted that Hawkins generates plus bat speed with his strong wrists.  While he patrolled center field for Bristol, the scout felt that Hawkins may have to move to a corner outfield spot down the road.  I agree and was a little disappointed by his speed, as Hawkins consistently turned in 4.4 and 4.5 seconds on home-to-first splits.  He does feature strong arm and looked to make instinctive reads off of the bat, so he should be fine in either outfield position.  At the plate Hawkins struggled a bit throughout the series.  The first game he was pitched backwards almost every at-bat, which he clearly was not expecting. He took a couple of ugly swings and did not hit a ball hard.  However, he showed some flashes of his potential in the final two games of the series, and he showed the ability to adjust to how pitchers attacked him.  After striking out on three straight fastballs in his 1st AB of the second game, he jumped on a first pitch fastball and drove it for a double into the right-center field gap in his second at bat.  Similarly, later in the series he put together some good AB and drove a 2-2 slider back up the middle for a hard-hit single.  While I was at first expecting a bit more out of the first-round talent, I learned that it would be foolish to expect too much from a teenager getting his first taste of professional ball.  The bottom line is that Hawkins has the physical tool to succeed at the highest level—the ability to make key adjustments and respond to failure will ultimately determine just how far Hawkins will go.

Unfortunately, none of the other players that I saw for Bristol particularly caught my eye.  I asked the scout that I sat with for two of the games if there were any players to look out for, but he also seemed to think that Hawkins was the only real ‘guy’ that the team had.  With that being said, I still took down some notes on a handful of players, such as Nick Basto, James Hudelson, Steven Nikorak, Jake Cose and Jefferson Olacio. 

Olacio is the player with the most potential, as the 18-year-old is a 6-foot-7, 230 pound left-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic.  In his previous start Olacio had mowed down his competition, striking out seven in five innings of work and not walking any. However, against Burlington both his stuff and command were lacking any #veneno.  It seemed as if his command issue stemmed from inconsistent mechanics—he had a tendency to pitch with only his upper half.  An inconsistent release point combined with some significant arm drag led to a rather unremarkable performance in which Olacio’s fastball ranged from 87-90 mph and his breaking balls (79-82) were too often either 58-footers or spinning across the heart of plate.  When it was all said and done with Olacio had thrown four innings, allowed four runs on two hits and seven walks, while striking out three. While the start was not impressive by any means, it is important to recognize that Olacio is still on 18 years old and may still be growing into his body.  Over the next few years he must continue to work hard to refine his movements, mechanics, and feel for pitching in order to be more consistent.

Some brief thoughts on the other guys that I mentioned:
·         I expected more out of Nick Basto. The shortstop is a fifth-round pick from this year’s draft, but he is not an elite athlete and will probably have to move to second, or more likely third base down the line. He put together a couple of scrappy AB, but was overpowered by fringe-average fastballs in on his hands. The scout that I talked to was not very impressed and felt that he would turn into a punch-less 3rd baseman.

·         3B Steve Nikorak (R/R 6’2, 215) made some nice plays defensively—one to his left and one to his right—that required accurate and strong throws from his knees.  While he flashed the leather and had an athletic body type, the bat was nothing special, and he is a 22-year-old that was just drafted out of college (Temple), so one would be wise to remain skeptical until he continues to hit up the minor-league ladder.

·         RHP Jake Cose (6’5, 180) is 21-years-old in his 2nd year w/ Bristol who was drafted in the 27th round of the 2011 draft.  He showed some decent stuff (88-91 FB, 78-81 SL, 78-81 CH) and has a projectable frame, but I think that if he was able to put on some more muscle mass he would be able to add some velo and improve a fringy arsenal into a more potent collection.

·         RHP James Hudelson (6’4, 200) is a 22 year old out of Missouri that is in his first season of professional ball. He featured a ¾ delivery that created some deception and a nice angle for his 88-90 mph 2-seamer.  He also flashed a couple of average sliders between 74-75 mph.  Given his age and limited upside, Hudelson’s ceiling appears to be a mid-relief type of guy.


Thursday, July 12, 2012

"Scouting" in North Carolina


Last week I started my summer internship with Baseball America in Durham, North Carolina.  While the majority of my work for BA will be conducted within the confines of their main office, there are a number of minor league teams within two or three hours.  Earlier this week the site posted an article that I wrote about the Chicago White Sox’s recent first round pick, Courtney Hawkins, which you can read here (if you are a BA subscriber).  If you are not a BA subscriber, the basic gist of the piece is that while Hawkins is “struggling”, the 18-year old is still getting adjusted to the rigors of professional baseball and has the raw ingredients for a special major-league player. 
               
I was able to see Hawkins and a number of other notable and rather unremarkable young players last week, as I attended three games between the Burlington Royals and the Bristol White Sox of the Rookie-level Appalachian League, and one game between the Delmarva Shorebirds and the Hickory Crawdads of the Low-A South Atlantic League.   
               
                Today I’ll include some of my notes and thoughts on various Burlington Royals, but tomorrow or the next few days I will write about some players from Bristol, Delmarva, and Hickory.

                Burlington features a number of impressive players for such a low level of the minor leagues.  The first and most well-known is center fielder Bubba Starling, a first-round pick in 2011 who is a tremendous athlete.  Listed at 6-foot-4 and 180 pounds, Starling signed for around $5 million, spurning the Nebraska Cornhuskers football team for a chance to play professional baseball.  He is extremely athletic and the body absolutely looks the part.  He has the frame to add some more muscle mass as he grows older, but he definitely looks like he belongs when he steps on the field.  Even though I only saw three games, it was apparent that Starling is still raw, but the tools are there.  His swing has some holes in it and I think that he will struggle with quality breaking balls all the way up the ladder, but he generates bat speed and showed the ability to work the opposite field, as he smashed a low and away fastball (that was probably a ball) into the right-CF gap for a triple.  His arm and speed are both solid-average to plus tools, and scouts project plus-power onto his bat.
               
Burlington’s second baseman for the series was Kenny Diekroeger, a 21-year-old 4th round pick in this past month’s draft from Stanford University.  You can read more about Diekroeger’s path to the big leagues from one of my fellow BA interns, John Sandberg, here.  Diekroeger has a solid build and good body and is listed at 6’2, 190, which seemed accurate when looking in person.  He moved over to shortstop for one game in the series, but he definitely profiles better at second base.  He is athletic and made a very nice play on a high chopper to his left that required an accurate, quick release.  While I only saw him make a few plays in the field, I’d say that he profiles as an average defensive second baseman.  Like most prospects, Diekroeger’s future will rely on his ability to hit.  While at Stanford he struggled to make a consistent impact, and his production actually decreased each season.  While his numbers have been solid thus far and he performed well in the series, I was not sold on his potential.  A couple of his hits were jam-shots and bleeders that found open space and I really believe that anything above average velocity will give Diekroeger trouble.  Given his age, I’d expect Diekroeger to move up to Low-A, if not High-A to start off 2013.  As he climbs the ladder we will truly see what kind of bat Diekroeger brings to the table.
               
Many of the other Royals were solid players, but lack the pedigree or notoriety of Starling and Diekroeger.  In the above referenced piece about Diekroger, is a short blog post on Terrance Gore, a diminutive 20-year-old outfielder with blazing speed.  He has a 30 (maybe 20) grade arm and will probably be reduced to a corner outfield spot (unless they are willing to take the defensive hit), which greatly reduces his value.  He has been rumored to be clocked at an astounding 3.8 seconds to first base from the right-side which grades out higher than “80” or elite, but I clocked him at a 4.03 while a scout I sat with had him a 3.95 on another occasion.  Regardless, Gore’s speed makes him an interesting prospect to keep an eye on.  I really liked a pair of left-handed starters that the Royals threw out, Patrick Conroy and Colin Rodgers, but because I was focused on Hawkins, Gore, and the other top guys (for my piece for Baseball America) I was not able to get as much detail as I’d like.  Regardless, here are some of my skeleton notes for the more under-the-radar Burlington guys:

·         LHP Patrick Conroy (6’4, 218), 20 years old, 1st season out of J.C. (Marin CC in Cali), 32nd round pick
o   86-89 FB
o   84-85 cutter
o   75-77 curve
o   Pitchability guy—still needs to polish some of his secondary command, but overall strong control
·         SS Humberto Arteaga (R/R, 6’1, 160), 18 year old out of Caracas
o   Listed as best fielder in Royal’s farm system by Baseball America, but I did not see it at all during the series
§  Made a couple of errors on routine plays, also did not appear to get to balls in the hole that I thought he had a shot for
§  Didn’t appear to be playing hard, running hard down the line
o   Good frame, body—can add mass down the road, needs to
o   F-8
o   5-3
o   1b (2-2 count; made nice adjustment—after missing slider earlier, went back up middle for hit)
·         RHP Jake Junis (6’3, 210), 29th round out of Illinois HS in 2012
o   87-90 FB
o   78-81 CH
·         LHP Daniel Stumpf (6’2, 200), San Jacinto College, 21 years old, 9th round pick in 2012
o   Good CH
o   Late life, burst on FB
·         LHP Colin Rodgers (6’0, 180), 3rd round pick in 2012 out of LA HS, 18 years old
o   86-88 FB
o   82-83 SL/CT (scout said created good angle with arm action)
o   72-75 CRV
o   74-75 CH