Revisiting the Draft Forecasts of WWBA, FLDCS Participants

It has been a while since my last rundown of amateur players, and I plan on continuing with the series, but since Baseball America recently released their HS Top 100 list ($ubscription only), I’d figure it’d be helpful to take a look back at some guys that I’ve already covered.

#11 Oscar Mercado: As I said in one of my first posts about the Florida Diamond Club Showcase, Mercado has been a known entity for quite some time—as he was a regular on the showcase circuit. However, he has obviously improved his stock quite a bit, as the quick twitch athleticism, fluid actions in the field, good bat speed, and plus instincts have enamored those within the industry. 

#17 Travis Demeritte: I was lucky enough to stumble upon Demeritte while in the back fields of the WWBA in Jupiter, and I was impressed with his arm strength and lateral movement/agility.  I was a bit concerned with his load/trigger phase as I felt that the hands were a bit noisy, but he generates easy plus bat speed and showed a patient, advanced approach during his at-bats.  I didn’t offer a draft projection in my original, brief analysis because I only saw Demeritte in passing, but others, like BP’s Jason Parks were very high on Demeritte’s skill set, so it is not too surprising to find the South Carolina commit listed so high in Baseball America’s Top 100.

#34 Jan Hernandez: As I mentioned in my last entry, much Hernandez’s value is dependent on his ability to stick at shortstop. Those within the industry are mixed, as Hernandez’s detractors are worried about how much bigger he will get over the next few years.  His frame (6-3, 195) and athleticism leave little to be desired, and I saw a nice, mechanically sound swing at the FLDCS with some power potential down the road. Feel free to draw some of your opinions by taking a look at this FREE video of Hernandez courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’ Nick Faleris.

#40 Tucker Neuhaus: I’ve written about Neuhaus extensively, both for Baseball America and out of personal interest, but I remained hesitant in offering a personal draft projection given my relative inexperience with amateur scouting, and the questions about his defensive profile.  BA’s HS Top 100 is based on talent alone (not signability, etc.), and I was a bit surprised to see Neuhaus up so high given the defensive question marks.  However, Neuhaus is a great, hard-working kid who features legitimate pull power and quality arm strength.  While I feel his body (6-3, 190) forces off 3B and into RF, the bat is a legitimate weapon, and it appears that scouts and those within the industry are confident enough in its ability to play up that it has lifted Neuhaus into the top half of the list.

#44 Josh Hart: As with Demerritte, I only got a chance to see Hart in passing while at the WWBA. As such, I didn’t have too much to say other than,

“Plus athlete with body for projection (6-3, 190). Good reads and quick breaks in the outfield—near diving play in shallow RCF. Premium projection and ceiling.”

Hart’s East Cobb team won the tournament, so scouts had a number of opportunities to see the center fielder in action, and it appears that they came away similarly impressed with the center fielder. I would personally be surprised to see the Georgia Tech commit ever set foot on campus, as I think Hart ends up receiving some big-time (over-slot) money to pry him away from his college commitment.

#52 Brian Navaretto: I wrote about Navaretto extensively in my post on Arlington Country Day’s contingent at the FLDCS. He clearly garnered the most attention of the group—and Nathan Rode suggested that the catching prospect projected to be a 2^nd -4^th round pick.  After a couple of weeks of calls/recon work with scouts it appears that Rode’s original suggestion was on point, as Navaretto checks in at #52 in BA’s HS Top 100 (perhaps 2^nd, likely 3^rd round pick depending on the number of college players selected). Just a quick rundown for those unwilling to read my original analysis: athletic frame, strong forearms/wrists, plus bat speed with leverage, swing got long at times, plays with energy and confidence, very strong arm (1.76-1.84 pop times).  Even though this year’s crop of amateur catching talent is particularly deep, I think that Navaretto climbs up draft boards with a strong spring campaign.

#69 Nick Longhi: Had a strong summer on showcase circuit and is a big dude with very real raw power. I wasn’t too sure about his draft prospects because the defensive profile limits him to LF or 1B, but his place in the BA Top 100 shows that some teams think that the LSU commit’s power potential is worth pursuing, regardless of any defensive limitations and swing mechanics that need ironing out.

#81 K.J. Woods: I didn’t have much to say about Woods—I only saw him in passing at the WWBA, but the 6-4, 210 pound OF/1B is a physical specimen. Ft. Mill, South Carolina native doesn’t have much projection remaining, but people are obviously drawn to the special combination of size/power potential and athleticism.

#96 Josh Greene: Like Neuhaus, another guy that I’ve written quite a bit about for both BA and personal interest. Unlike many to make the Top 100, Greene was not a big name coming into 2012. However, the Ocala native’s impressive skill set—plus(to plus-plus) speed, average arm strength, great instincts/reads—makes for a solid defensive center fielder.  The bat very much remains a question mark, but he features quick wrists and generates solid bat speed, and organizations are often willing to work with a youngster that provides solid defense at an up-the-middle position (regardless of the bat’s current grade).  With that being said, I was pleasantly surprised to find Greene within the Top 100, but his performance this summer/fall has clearly made believers out of more than just myself.

**Just missed Top 100: Christian Arroyo (gamer; absolutely love this kid despite the commitment to University of Florida) Brett Hanewich (Stanford commit, great athletic frame, two way threat—probably ends up as pitcher), Dane Dunning (also UF commit, serious room for projection), Sheldon Neuse (only saw a few innings for Texas Scout Yankees--liked lateral movements in field, approach at plate, instincts on basepaths)

Other Top 100 guys I’ve seen in person/Players to be covered in next post: #100 Edwin Diaz (PR), #75 Willie Abreu, #26 Chris Okey, #55 John Sternagel, #42 Zack Collins, NR Ronald Healy

FLDCS Observations: Railey, Greene, Hagenmiller, Hernandez

Last time I detailed the Arlington Country Day quartet of Brian Navaretto, Iramis Olivecia, Bernardo Bonifacio, and Blake Hennessey. Today I continue with some of my observations from the Florida Diamond Club Showcase.

2014 CF Matthew Railey, North Florida Christian HS, Tallahassee, FL: 6-0, 190, L/L, FSU commit.  Currently a junior, Railey more than held his own at the FLDCS with players one year his senior.  Although he came off the bench in both games and went 0-3, Railey worked two walks in game action, and showed out in batting practice.  Listed at 190 pounds, Railey is a fast-twitch, premium athlete.  While his frame may not ooze of projection as Josh Hart’s (previously covered) does, Railey has broad shoulders, a tapered waist and a well-proportioned, muscular physique.  Furthermore, the Tallahassee native has strong forearms and snappy wrists that allow the ball to jump off of his bat. Railey is able to generate plus bat speed with ease, but his swing has some serious length to it as he uses an extended load/trigger in which his hands drop significantly. While the (currently) lengthy swing will limit his ability to make consistent contact against top-notch pitching, Railey’s bat speed alone warrants potential plus-power. Turning in a 4.1 home-first split on a ground out to 2B, Railey is at least a plus-runner at present.  He flashed fringe-average arm strength in IF/OF, but the plus (to plus-plus) speed, range, and instincts should allow Railey to stick in CF.  At present, Railey is a bit raw and his lengthy swing can be exploited by quality pitching, but the tools (speed, power potential) and athleticism are evident. As a junior in high school, Railey still has nearly 18 months to grow as a ballplayer before the 2014 draft.  Although he is currently committed to play for the hometown Seminoles, I’d be surprised to see Railey wearing the Garnet and Gold at Mike Martin Field/Dick Howser Stadium, as a player with his defensive profile and tools/athleticism should be popped early in the draft.

2013 CF Josh Greene, Forest HS, Ocala, FL: 5-10, 165, L/L, High Point commit.

Despite being relatively unheralded before FLDCS, Greene dazzled on the final day of the showcase. Like Railey, Greene is at least a plus-runner at present, and he should be able to stick in CF.  Unlike Railey, however, Greene started in both of the North squad’s games.  In both contests he showed great instincts and reads off the bat.  His arm is nothing special—and though it was inconsistent at times he flashed average arm strength. At the plate, Greene has some length in swing but good bat speed and quick wrists.  He went 3-7 with a BB on the weekend, and was a nuisance on the basepaths.  While short and stout, with little room for further projection Greene provides some value defensively and showed that he could hit quality pitching.  While it is tough to gauge where he will end up in the draft, Greene certainly boosted his stock at the FLDCS.

2013 3B Ian Hagenmiller, Palm Beach Central, West Palm Beach, FL: 6-1, 210, R/R, uncommitted

Hagenmiller did not get much of a chance to shine in game action, as his team’s predominant 3B was Jan Hernandez (see below).  However, Hagenmiller showed extremely smooth actions in the field for a non-premium athlete. He has soft hands and flashed an extremely strong and consistent, accurate arm.  At the plate, Hagenmiller utilizes a toe-tap and a high hand set.  He showed the ability to backspin the ball and tap into some of his strength and raw power during batting practice, but he struggled to make contact in game action, striking out in 3 of his 4 at-bats. Probably destined for college ball or a late-round selection, Hagenmiller provides a solid blend of defensive chops at the hot corner and power potential (and a strong arm—90 mph off the mound).

2013 SS/3B Jan Hernandez, Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, Caguas, PR: 6-2, 195, R/R, uncommitted

Here’s what fine folks over at Baseball Prospectus had to say while watching Hernandez play at the WWBA in Jupiter:

First Take: Long-limbed, athletic body reminds me of a young Alex Rodriguez frame in short look. Soft feet with plus arm, appears to have skills to remain at short. Highly touted infielder, looks the part, right handed bat.–Dan Evans

Second Take: Good frame; clean actions in the infield; footwork plays around the bag; left side arm; collegiate shortstop and has chance to stick at pro ranks if he doesn’t get too big; power potential; natural lift; delivers barrel well; average runner likely slows as body matures; game projects across the board.–Nick Faleris

And now for my humble take:

I didn’t get a chance to see Hernandez at WWBA, but he did stand out at the FLDCS.  He has a good, solid frame and natural athleticism.  Right now he is a solid-average runner, turning in a 6.8 60-yard dash time at the showcase. As such, in my opinion he probably profiles best as a 3B down the road, but his hands are great, actions extremely smooth, and arm strong and accurate, so an organization may allow Hernandez to play his way off SS.  At the plate, he has a good swing path, and he turned in two very solid BP rounds.  His swing is compact and he flashed gap power and an innate ability to square up balls—the power should play up and develop as the body matures. Obviously much of Hernandez’s value is dependent on his ability to stick at shortstop. If evaluators like Dan Evans think that he can stick there, he will most likely end up as a high draft pick come June, as his other tools are polished yet projectable.

FLDCS Observations: Arlington Country Day Edition

Last time I wrote about a number of players that stood outat the Florida Diamond Club Showcase, and today I will continue with my analysis with a brief rundown on a handful of players from Arlington Country Day. ACD is a high school that has long been associated with dominance in basketball and baseball, as Javier Baez (currently Chicago Cubs top prospect and 2011 1^st round pick) and a handful of other talents have provided the program with some serious buzz in the Southeast. Of the following four players, three call Puerto Rico their home (as did Baez), and some within the high school athletics industry have questioned the legitimacy of such schools and whether or not they should be able to allowed to compete for state championships. Indeed, ACD was fined by the Florida High School Athletic Association for recruitment violations and in 2010 the school announced its intention to withdraw from the organization. Regardless of one’s personal beliefs about the intersection of education and athletics in high school and the circumstances of ACD’s roster compilation, there is no doubt that Brian Navaretto, Iramis Olivecia, Bernardo Bonifcacio, and Blake Hennessey will make some serious noise (be it in the collegiate or professional ranks) over the next few years.

2013 C/1B/OF Brian Navaretto: 6-3, 220, R/R; currently uncommitted.

First here is what the fine folks over at Baseball Prospectus had to say about Navaretto in their rundown of a handful of players they say at the WWBA in Jupiter last weekend:

Outstanding catching prospect with impressive energy and tools. First guy out, first guy in dugout. Showed 60+ arm with accuracy and loved to use it. Great frame (6'3" 200 lbs). Quick bat. Aggressive with intangibles.–Dan Evans

And now for my humble synopsis:

Great frame, athletic and well-proportioned body. Large forearms, broad shoulders, tapered waist and well-developed lower-half; basically everything you look for physically in a prospect. He utilizes his strong forearms and wrists and upper-body strength to create easy plus bat speed and leverage.  At times, Navaretto’s swing showed some length as he appeared enamored with his power (wanted to put on a show in BP for scouts?). In game action Navarreto showed an innate ability to barrel balls and create loud contact, including a ground-rule double. Navaretto oozes confidence and plays with swagger.  He was not overwhelmed by the showcase and the attention it garnered—he thrives on the big stage and the competition.  Constantly upbeat, energetic, and plays with a smile. From what I can recall, nobody at the FLDCS tested his arm during the two games he played, but in IF/OF he showed off a very strong arm, turning in 1.76, 1.83, 1.84 pop times and athleticism/agility that should allow him a chance to stay behind the dish.  Unfortunately, I was too focused on catching a glimpse of everybody at the tournament, and fulfilling my duties for Baseball America that I was not able to get a good read on his receiving skills.  I had hoped to get another look at Navaretto at the WWBA, but I was only able to catch one of his team’s (East Cobb Baseball) games and he was sitting the bench (as he had caught earlier in the day).  From what I heard, scouts were impressed with Navaretto’s arm strength and athleticism but questions still remained about his catching future, although former Dodger’s GM Dan Evans seemed pretty convinced in the quote listed above.  If Navaretto is able to confirm that he has the potential to stick behind the plate, he has an outside shot of being a late first-round or supplemental first-round pick, but organizations are generally hesitant to select high-school catchers unless they are sure they can handle the defensive responsibilities. As such, Navaretto currently projects to be a second to fourth round selection (according to former colleague and all-around good dude Nathan Rode, whom you can follow on Twitter @BAHighSchool).

2013 OF Iramis Olivecia: 5-9, 170, R/R; currently uncommitted. Although all players who participated in the FLDCS were invited by various area scouts, Olivecia was relatively unknown to many scouts in attendance.  Nonetheless, Olivecia performed well enough to make sure those covering Northern Florida pay attention this spring.  Olivecia features a small, compact frame, as he listed at 5-9, 170.  A classic quick-twitch athlete, Olivecia’s performance in IF/OF and game action highlighted his athleticism and loose movements. At the plate,  he was balanced throughout time in batter’s box and consistently turned in solid, if not spectacular rounds of BP.  He immdediately turned heads in game action, however, as the Puerto Rican native bit a two-run HR to left center field off RHP Nick Eicholtz in his first AB of the weekend.  Although he didn’t record another hit in that game, he did sting a single in his second game and showed an ability to work the count.  Overall, the bat looks promising and the approach generally sound—although it was still tough to get a solid read as he went up against a relatively mediocre group of pitchers in the second game. In the field, Olivecia played predominately in the corner outfield positions, as CF was ceded to either Josh Greene or Matthew Railey (observations forthcoming), and I cannot rememeber his arm being tested in game action.  However, in IF/OF, Olivecia flashed solid-average arm strength although his consistency and mechanics were quite inconsistent. Overall, Olivecia is an intriguing prospect—despite his small stature he showed some in-game pop and a balanced approach in the batter’s box. While his movements and actions were athletic and loose, Olivecia remains a bit raw and he turned in a disappointing 4.5 home-first split on a ground ball to second base (although he did slow down towards the end).  I’m not sure where he ends up come next summer, but I think he definitely opened a few eyes at the FLDCS.

2013 INF Blake Hennessey: 6-1, 175, R/R, Oklahoma State commit. Hennessey was listed as a middle infielder on the roster, but he played the majority of the weekend at the hot corner.  Regardless, the ACD product features a projectable and athletic frame.  He flashed a strong, accurate arm that should allow him to stay on the left side of the diamond if he is forced to move off shortstop down the road.  He made some solid defensive plays in game action, specifically on relay throws from the outfield—he gunned down a couple of runners trying to take an extra base on balls hit into the gaps.  At the plate, Hennessey generates some solid power and leverage, but he had a tendency to get sloppy with hands as he dropped them during his trigger/load phase.  As such, his swing got long and loopy, he struggled to maintain a consistent swing path, and he had some contact issues (3K during the weekend).  However, when his hands were correct, Hennessey was able to make some solid contact and hit with authority. Since Hennessey’s time at SS was limited throughout the weekend, it would be foolish to discuss his defensive capabilities at length, but the fact that he was not given the opportunity to start may indicate that scouts prefer him at 3B.  At present, Hennessey probably does not have the power of an ideal third baseman, but he has the frame to carry more mass, so teams may be willing to take him later in the draft and try to pry him away from his OK State commitment.

2013 OF Bernardo Bonifacio : 5-9, 200, R/R, Bethune Cookman commit. Bonifcacio, the final member of ACD’s Puerto Rican triumvirate was listed as a CF on the roster, but the thickly built outfielder spent all weekend in either corner.  Bonifacio is probably maxed out physically, but despite his thick build the youngster is still a plus-runner, turning in a  4.2 from the RH side.  Like Olivecia, I cannot remember Bonifacio’s arm being tested in game action, but in IF/OF he flashed solid-average to plus arm strength with some consistency issues in his mechanics, rhythm, and accuracy. At the plate, Bonifacio’s had a few issues as his hands and hips were not always working together. As a result he frequently hit with only his upper body. Regardless, his swing path was relatively sound and consistent and his raw strength impressive enough to suffice at the amateur level.  As he climbs the ladder Bonifacio will have to adjust and clean up his hands/hips in order to thrive and hit consistently, but the tools are in place.  His ceiling is not nearly as high as Navaretto’s, and he will most likely lose a step or two as he gets older, but Bonifacio boasts a plus arm, good athleticism, and juice in the bat, so he is an intriguing prospect nonetheless.

I’m excited to have stumbled upon these amateur talents and I’m looking forward to seeing them play for ACD this spring.

Next up I’ll be focusing on a handful of players, including a few from from Tallahassee’s North Florida Christian (like 2014 stud Matthew Railey).