tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10255886136324550062024-03-08T00:53:07.195-08:003UnassistedDrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-92073051754119031532012-11-19T19:30:00.000-08:002012-11-19T19:30:49.594-08:00Revisiting the Draft Forecasts of WWBA, FLDCS Participants<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It has been a while since my last rundown of amateur
players, and I plan on continuing with the series, but since Baseball America
recently released their <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/college/recruiting/2012/2614313.html"><span style="color: red;">HS Top 100 list ($ubscription only)</span></a></span>, I’d
figure it’d be helpful to take a look back at some guys that I’ve already covered.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">#11 Oscar Mercado: As I said in one of my first posts about
the Florida Diamond Club Showcase, Mercado has been a known entity for quite
some time—as he was a regular on the showcase circuit. However, he has
obviously improved his stock quite a bit, as the quick twitch athleticism,
fluid actions in the field, good bat speed, and plus instincts have enamored
those within the industry. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">#17 Travis Demeritte: I was lucky enough to stumble upon
Demeritte while in the back fields of the WWBA in Jupiter, and I was impressed
with his arm strength and lateral movement/agility. I was a bit concerned with his load/trigger
phase as I felt that the hands were a bit noisy, but he generates easy plus bat
speed and showed a patient, advanced approach during his at-bats. I didn’t offer a draft projection in my original,
brief <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://3unassisted.blogspot.com/2012/10/some-thoughts-observations-from-wwba.html"><span style="color: red;">analysis</span></a> </span>because I only saw Demeritte in
passing, but others, like BP’s Jason Parks were very high on Demeritte’s skill
set, so it is not too surprising to find the South Carolina commit listed so
high in Baseball America’s Top 100.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">#34 Jan Hernandez: <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://3unassisted.blogspot.com/2012/11/fldcs-observations-railey-greene.html"><span style="color: red;">As I mentioned in my last entry,</span></a></span> much Hernandez’s
value is dependent on his ability to stick at shortstop. Those within the industry
are mixed, as Hernandez’s detractors are worried about how much bigger he will
get over the next few years. His frame
(6-3, 195) and athleticism leave little to be desired, and I saw a nice,
mechanically sound swing at the FLDCS with some power potential down the road. Feel
free to draw some of your opinions by taking a look at this <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18942"><span style="color: red;">FREE video of Hernandez courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’ Nick
Faleris</span></a></span>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">#40 Tucker Neuhaus: I’ve written about Neuhaus extensively,
both for <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/10/neuhas-arroyo-star-on-first-day-of-florida-diamond-club-showcase/"><span style="color: red;">Baseball America</span></a> </span>and out of personal <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://3unassisted.blogspot.com/2012/10/florida-diamond-club-showcase.html"><span style="color: red;">interest</span></a></span>, but I remained hesitant in offering
a personal draft projection given my relative inexperience with amateur scouting,
and the questions about his defensive profile.
BA’s HS Top 100 is based on talent alone (not signability, etc.), and I
was a bit surprised to see Neuhaus up so high given the defensive question
marks. However, Neuhaus is a great, hard-working
kid who features legitimate pull power and quality arm strength. While I feel his body (6-3, 190) forces off
3B and into RF, the bat is a legitimate weapon, and it appears that scouts and
those within the industry are confident enough in its ability to play up that
it has lifted Neuhaus into the top half of the list.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">#44 Josh Hart: As with Demerritte, I only got a chance to
see Hart in passing while at the WWBA. As such, I didn’t have too much to say
other than, <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: 0.5in;">“</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; text-indent: 0.5in;">Plus athlete
with body for projection (6-3, 190). Good reads and quick breaks in the
outfield—near diving play in shallow RCF. Premium projection and ceiling.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: 0.5in;">”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hart’s East Cobb team won the tournament, so scouts had a number
of opportunities to see the center fielder in action, and it appears that they
came away similarly impressed with the center fielder. I would personally be
surprised to see the Georgia Tech commit ever set foot on campus, as I think
Hart ends up receiving some big-time (over-slot) money to pry him away from his
college commitment.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">#52 Brian Navaretto: I wrote about Navaretto extensively in
my post on Arlington Country Day’s contingent at the FLDCS. He clearly garnered
the most attention of the group—and Nathan Rode suggested that the catching prospect
projected to be a 2<sup>nd</sup> -4<sup>th</sup> round pick. After a couple of weeks of calls/recon work
with scouts it appears that Rode’s original suggestion was on point, as
Navaretto checks in at #52 in BA’s HS Top 100 (perhaps 2<sup>nd</sup>, likely 3<sup>rd</sup>
round pick depending on the number of college players selected). Just a quick
rundown for those unwilling to read my <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://3unassisted.blogspot.com/2012/11/fldcs-observations-arlington-country.html"><span style="color: red;">original analysis</span></a>: </span>athletic frame, strong
forearms/wrists, plus bat speed with leverage, swing got long at times, plays
with energy and confidence, very strong arm (1.76-1.84 pop times). Even though this year’s crop of amateur catching
talent is particularly deep, I think that Navaretto climbs up draft boards with
a strong spring campaign.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">#69 Nick Longhi: Had a strong summer on showcase circuit and
is a big dude with very real raw power. <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://3unassisted.blogspot.com/2012/10/florida-diamond-club-showcase.html"><span style="color: red;">I wasn’t too sure about his draft prospects</span></a></span>
because the defensive profile limits him to LF or 1B, but his place in the BA
Top 100 shows that some teams think that the LSU commit’s power potential is worth
pursuing, regardless of any defensive limitations and swing mechanics that need
ironing out. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">#81 K.J. Woods: I didn’t have much to say about Woods—I only
saw him in passing at the WWBA, but the 6-4, 210 pound OF/1B is a physical
specimen. Ft. Mill, South Carolina native doesn’t have much projection
remaining, but people are obviously drawn to the special combination of
size/power potential and athleticism.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">#96 Josh Greene: Like Neuhaus, another guy that I’ve written
quite a bit about for both <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/10/josh-greene-dazzles-in-diamond-club-finale/"><span style="color: red;">BA</span></a></span> and <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://3unassisted.blogspot.com/2012/11/fldcs-observations-railey-greene.html"><span style="color: red;">personal interest</span></a></span>. Unlike many to make the
Top 100, Greene was not a big name coming into 2012. However, the Ocala native’s
impressive skill set—plus(to plus-plus) speed, average arm strength, great
instincts/reads—makes for a solid defensive center fielder. The bat very much remains a question mark,
but he features quick wrists and generates solid bat speed, and organizations
are often willing to work with a youngster that provides solid defense at an
up-the-middle position (regardless of the bat’s current grade). With that being said, I was pleasantly
surprised to find Greene within the Top 100, but his performance this
summer/fall has clearly made believers out of more than just myself.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">**<span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/early-draft-preview/2013/2614314.html"><span style="color: red;">Just missed Top 100</span></a></span>: Christian Arroyo (<span style="color: red;"><a href="http://3unassisted.blogspot.com/2012/10/florida-diamond-club-showcase.html"><span style="color: red;">gamer</span></a></span>; absolutely love this kid despite the
commitment to University of Florida) Brett Hanewich (Stanford commit, great
athletic frame, two way threat—probably ends up as pitcher), Dane Dunning (also
UF commit, serious room for projection), Sheldon Neuse (only saw a few innings
for Texas Scout Yankees--liked lateral movements in field, approach at plate,
instincts on basepaths)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Other Top 100 guys I’ve seen in person/Players to be
covered in next post: #100 Edwin Diaz (PR), #75 Willie Abreu, #26 Chris Okey, #55
John Sternagel, #42 Zack Collins, NR Ronald Healy</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-85881175240110610932012-11-06T11:40:00.000-08:002012-11-06T11:40:10.589-08:00FLDCS Observations: Railey, Greene, Hagenmiller, Hernandez<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Public/Documents/3Unassisted/bitly.com/Yz9aCU"><span style="color: red;">Last time I detailed the Arlington Country Day quartet of
Brian Navaretto, Iramis Olivecia, Bernardo Bonifacio, and Blake Hennessey</span></a></span>.
Today I continue with some of my observations from the Florida Diamond Club
Showcase.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2014 CF Matthew
Railey</b>, North Florida Christian HS, Tallahassee, FL: 6-0, 190, L/L, FSU
commit. Currently a junior, Railey more
than held his own at the FLDCS with players one year his senior. Although he came off the bench in both games
and went 0-3, Railey worked two walks in game action, and showed out in batting
practice. Listed at 190 pounds, Railey
is a fast-twitch, premium athlete. While
his frame may not ooze of projection as Josh Hart’s (previously covered) does,
Railey has broad shoulders, a tapered waist and a well-proportioned, muscular
physique. Furthermore, the Tallahassee
native has strong forearms and snappy wrists that allow the ball to jump off of
his bat. Railey is able to generate plus bat speed with ease, but his swing has
some serious length to it as he uses an extended load/trigger in which his
hands drop significantly. While the (currently) lengthy swing will limit his
ability to make consistent contact against top-notch pitching, Railey’s bat
speed alone warrants potential plus-power. Turning in a 4.1 home-first split on
a ground out to 2B, Railey is at least a plus-runner at present. He flashed fringe-average arm strength in
IF/OF, but the plus (to plus-plus) speed, range, and instincts should allow
Railey to stick in CF. At present,
Railey is a bit raw and his lengthy swing can be exploited by quality pitching,
but the tools (speed, power potential) and athleticism are evident. As a junior
in high school, Railey still has nearly 18 months to grow as a ballplayer
before the 2014 draft. Although he is
currently committed to play for the hometown Seminoles, I’d be surprised to see
Railey wearing the Garnet and Gold at Mike Martin Field/Dick Howser Stadium, as
a player with his defensive profile and tools/athleticism should be popped
early in the draft.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 CF Josh Greene</b>,
Forest HS, Ocala, FL: 5-10, 165, L/L, High Point commit.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/10/josh-greene-dazzles-in-diamond-club-finale/"><span style="color: red;">Despite being relatively unheralded before FLDCS, Greene
dazzled on the final day of the showcase</span></a></span>. Like Railey, Greene
is at least a plus-runner at present, and he should be able to stick in
CF. Unlike Railey, however, Greene
started in both of the North squad’s games.
In both contests he showed great instincts and reads off the bat. His arm is nothing special—and though it was
inconsistent at times he flashed average arm strength. At the plate, Greene has
some length in swing but good bat speed and quick wrists. He went 3-7 with a BB on the weekend, and was
a nuisance on the basepaths. While short
and stout, with little room for further projection Greene provides some value
defensively and showed that he could hit quality pitching. While it is tough to gauge where he will end
up in the draft, Greene certainly boosted his stock at the FLDCS.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 3B Ian
Hagenmiller</b>, Palm Beach Central, West Palm Beach, FL: 6-1, 210, R/R, uncommitted<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hagenmiller did not get much of a chance to shine in game
action, as his team’s predominant 3B was Jan Hernandez (see below). However, Hagenmiller showed extremely smooth
actions in the field for a non-premium athlete. He has soft hands and flashed
an extremely strong and consistent, accurate arm. At the plate, Hagenmiller utilizes a toe-tap
and a high hand set. He showed the
ability to backspin the ball and tap into some of his strength and raw power
during batting practice, but he struggled to make contact in game action,
striking out in 3 of his 4 at-bats. Probably destined for college ball or a
late-round selection, Hagenmiller provides a solid blend of defensive chops at
the hot corner and power potential (<span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=228217"><span style="color: red;">and a strong arm—90 mph off the mound</span></a></span>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 SS/3B Jan Hernandez</b>,
Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, Caguas, PR: 6-2, 195, R/R, uncommitted<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here’s what fine folks over at <i><u>Baseball Prospectus</u></i> had to <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18826"><span style="color: red;">say</span></a></span> while watching Hernandez play at the
WWBA in Jupiter:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt;">First Take:</span></strong><span class="apple-converted-space"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Long-limbed, athletic body reminds me of a
young<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><span class="playerdef"><b><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1292">Alex
Rodriguez</a></b></span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>frame in
short look. Soft feet with plus arm, appears to have skills to remain at short.
Highly touted infielder, looks the part, right handed bat.–Dan Evans<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><strong><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Second Take:</span></strong><span class="apple-converted-space"><b><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></b></span></span></i><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><i><span style="color: blue;">Good
frame; clean actions in the infield; footwork plays around the bag; left side
arm; collegiate shortstop and has chance to stick at pro ranks if he doesn’t
get too big; power potential; natural lift; delivers barrel well; average
runner likely slows as body matures; game projects across the board.–Nick Faleris</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And now for my humble take:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I didn’t get a chance to see Hernandez at WWBA, but he did
stand out at the FLDCS. He has a good,
solid frame and natural athleticism. Right
now he is a solid-average runner, turning in a 6.8 60-yard dash time at the
showcase. As such, in my opinion he probably profiles best as a 3B down the road,
but his hands are great, actions extremely smooth, and arm strong and accurate,
so an organization may allow Hernandez to play his way off SS. At the plate, he has a good swing path, and
he turned in two very solid BP rounds.
His swing is compact and he flashed gap power and an innate ability to
square up balls—the power should play up and develop as the body matures.
Obviously much of Hernandez’s value is dependent on his ability to stick at
shortstop. If evaluators like Dan Evans think that he can stick there, he will
most likely end up as a high draft pick come June, as his other tools are
polished yet projectable.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-21718380222360797822012-11-05T18:57:00.001-08:002012-11-05T18:59:40.747-08:00FLDCS Observations: Arlington Country Day Edition<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.3unassisted.blogspot.com/2012/10/florida-diamond-club-showcase.html"><span style="color: red;">Last time I wrote about a number of players that stood outat the Florida Diamond Club Showcase</span></a>, and today I will continue with my
analysis with a brief rundown on a handful of players from Arlington Country
Day. ACD is a high school that has long been associated with dominance in <a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/preps/basketball/2006-final-super25.htm">basketball</a>
and baseball, as <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/92359"><span style="color: red;">Javier Baez</span></a></span> (currently Chicago Cubs top
prospect and 2011 1<sup>st</sup> round pick) and a handful of other talents
have provided the program with some serious buzz in the Southeast. Of the
following four players, three call Puerto Rico their home (as did Baez), and
some within the high school athletics industry have questioned the legitimacy
of such schools and whether or not they should be able to allowed to compete
for state championships. Indeed, ACD was fined by the Florida High School
Athletic Association for recruitment violations and in 2010 the school
announced its intention to <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/400565/gene-frenette/2010-08-30/gene-frenette-arlington-country-day-fhsaa-better-apart"><span style="color: red;">withdraw</span></a> </span>from the organization. Regardless
of one’s personal beliefs about the intersection of education and athletics in
high school and the circumstances of ACD’s roster compilation, there is no
doubt that Brian Navaretto, Iramis Olivecia, Bernardo Bonifcacio, and Blake
Hennessey will make some serious noise (be it in the collegiate or professional
ranks) over the next few years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 C/1B/OF Brian
Navaretto</b>: 6-3, 220, R/R; currently uncommitted. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First here is what the fine folks over at <i><u>Baseball Prospectus</u></i> <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18826"><span style="color: red;">had to say</span></a></span> about Navaretto in their rundown
of a handful of players they say at the WWBA in Jupiter last weekend:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #0c343d;"><b><i><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 10pt;">Outstanding catching prospect with impressive energy and
tools. First guy out, first guy in dugout. Showed 60+ arm with accuracy and
loved to use it. Great frame (6'3" 200 lbs). Quick bat. Aggressive with
intangibles.–</span></i><em><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 10pt; font-style: normal;">Dan
Evans</span></em></b></span><i><o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And now for my humble synopsis:</span></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Great frame, athletic and well-proportioned body. Large
forearms, broad shoulders, tapered waist and well-developed lower-half;
basically everything you look for physically in a prospect. He utilizes his
strong forearms and wrists and upper-body strength to create easy plus bat
speed and leverage. At times,
Navaretto’s swing showed some length as he appeared enamored with his power
(wanted to put on a show in BP for scouts?). In game action Navarreto showed an
innate ability to barrel balls and create loud contact, including a ground-rule
double. Navaretto oozes confidence and plays with swagger. He was not overwhelmed by the showcase and
the attention it garnered—he thrives on the big stage and the competition. Constantly upbeat, energetic, and plays with
a smile. From what I can recall, nobody at the FLDCS tested his arm during the
two games he played, but in IF/OF he showed off a very strong arm, turning in
1.76, 1.83, 1.84 pop times and athleticism/agility that should allow him a
chance to stay behind the dish.
Unfortunately, I was too focused on catching a glimpse of everybody at
the tournament, and fulfilling my duties for <i><u>Baseball America</u></i> that I was not able to get a good read on
his receiving skills. I had hoped to get
another look at Navaretto at the WWBA, but I was only able to catch one of his
team’s (East Cobb Baseball) games and he was sitting the bench (as he had
caught earlier in the day). From what I
heard, scouts were impressed with Navaretto’s arm strength and athleticism but
questions still remained about his catching future, although former Dodger’s GM
Dan Evans seemed pretty convinced in the quote listed above. If Navaretto is able to confirm that he has
the potential to stick behind the plate, he has an outside shot of being a late
first-round or supplemental first-round pick, but organizations are generally
hesitant to select high-school catchers unless they are sure they can handle
the defensive responsibilities. As such, Navaretto currently projects to be a
second to fourth round selection (according to former colleague and all-around
good dude Nathan Rode, whom you can follow on Twitter @BAHighSchool).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 OF Iramis
Olivecia</b>: 5-9, 170, R/R; currently uncommitted. Although all players who
participated in the FLDCS were invited by various area scouts, Olivecia was
relatively unknown to many scouts in attendance. Nonetheless, Olivecia performed well enough
to make sure those covering Northern Florida pay attention this spring. Olivecia features a small, compact frame, as
he listed at 5-9, 170. A classic
quick-twitch athlete, Olivecia’s performance in IF/OF and game action
highlighted his athleticism and loose movements. At the plate, he was balanced throughout time in batter’s
box and consistently turned in solid, if not spectacular rounds of BP. He immdediately turned heads in game action,
however, as the Puerto Rican native bit a two-run HR to left center field off
RHP Nick Eicholtz in his first AB of the weekend. Although he didn’t record another hit in that
game, he did sting a single in his second game and showed an ability to work
the count. Overall, the bat looks
promising and the approach generally sound—although it was still tough to get a
solid read as he went up against a relatively mediocre group of pitchers in the
second game. In the field, Olivecia played predominately in the corner outfield
positions, as CF was ceded to either Josh Greene or Matthew Railey
(observations forthcoming), and I cannot rememeber his arm being tested in game
action. However, in IF/OF, Olivecia
flashed solid-average arm strength although his consistency and mechanics were
quite inconsistent. Overall, Olivecia is an intriguing prospect—despite his
small stature he showed some in-game pop and a balanced approach in the batter’s
box. While his movements and actions were athletic and loose, Olivecia remains
a bit raw and he turned in a disappointing 4.5 home-first split on a ground
ball to second base (although he did slow down towards the end). I’m not sure where he ends up come next
summer, but I think he definitely opened a few eyes at the FLDCS.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 INF Blake
Hennessey</b>: 6-1, 175, R/R, Oklahoma State commit. Hennessey was listed as a
middle infielder on the roster, but he played the majority of the weekend at
the hot corner. Regardless, the ACD
product features a projectable and athletic frame. He flashed a strong, accurate arm that should
allow him to stay on the left side of the diamond if he is forced to move off
shortstop down the road. He made some
solid defensive plays in game action, specifically on relay throws from the
outfield—he gunned down a couple of runners trying to take an extra base on
balls hit into the gaps. At the plate,
Hennessey generates some solid power and leverage, but he had a tendency to get
sloppy with hands as he dropped them during his trigger/load phase. As such, his swing got long and loopy, he
struggled to maintain a consistent swing path, and he had some contact issues
(3K during the weekend). However, when his
hands were correct, Hennessey was able to make some solid contact and hit with
authority. Since Hennessey’s time at SS was limited throughout the weekend, it
would be foolish to discuss his defensive capabilities at length, but the fact
that he was not given the opportunity to start may indicate that scouts prefer
him at 3B. At present, Hennessey
probably does not have the power of an ideal third baseman, but he has the frame
to carry more mass, so teams may be willing to take him later in the draft and
try to pry him away from his OK State commitment.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 OF Bernardo
Bonifacio</b> : 5-9, 200, R/R, Bethune Cookman commit. Bonifcacio, the final
member of ACD’s Puerto Rican triumvirate was listed as a CF on the roster, but
the thickly built outfielder spent all weekend in either corner. Bonifacio is probably maxed out physically, but
despite his thick build the youngster is still a plus-runner, turning in a 4.2 from the RH side. Like Olivecia, I cannot remember Bonifacio’s
arm being tested in game action, but in IF/OF he flashed solid-average to plus
arm strength with some consistency issues in his mechanics, rhythm, and
accuracy. At the plate, Bonifacio’s had a few issues as his hands and hips were
not always working together. As a result he frequently hit with only his upper
body. Regardless, his swing path was relatively sound and consistent and his raw
strength impressive enough to suffice at the amateur level. As he climbs the ladder Bonifacio will have
to adjust and clean up his hands/hips in order to thrive and hit consistently,
but the tools are in place. His ceiling
is not nearly as high as Navaretto’s, and he will most likely lose a step or
two as he gets older, but Bonifacio boasts a plus arm, good athleticism, and
juice in the bat, so he is an intriguing prospect nonetheless.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I’m excited to have stumbled upon these amateur talents and
I’m looking forward to seeing them play for ACD this spring.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Next up I’ll be focusing on a handful of players, including
a few from from Tallahassee’s North Florida Christian (like 2014 stud <b><i>Matthew
Railey</i></b>).</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<br />Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-12243896267964236872012-10-31T13:51:00.002-07:002012-10-31T13:51:28.504-07:00Florida Diamond Club Showcase Observations<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As I mentioned briefly <span style="color: red;"><a href="http://www.3unassisted.blogspot.com/2012/10/some-thoughts-observations-from-wwba.html"><span style="color: red;">yesterday</span></a>,</span>
I still have a ton of raw scouting notes on a handful of players that participated
in the WWBA this past weekend and the Florida Diamond Club Showcase two
weekends ago. Yesterday I touched upon a
few players that I only got to see for a couple of plate appearances, innings,
hours, etc., but today I will focus on some guys that I was able to see over
the course of an entire weekend’s worth of games, batting practices, and
infield/outfield routines at the Florida Diamond Club Showcase. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 SS Oscar Mercado</b>:
6-1, 177, R/R, Florida State commit. Those within the industry have known about
Mercado for a while now, as he has been a regular on the showcase scene.
Baseball Prospectus’ Nick Faleris provided an analysis on him<span style="color: red;"> <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18662"><span style="color: red;">here</span></a></span>. From what I
saw at the showcase, Mercado is a great athlete and possesses the necessary
quick-twitch athletisicm that is necessary for a major-league middle infielder.
He has fluid movements, nimble footwork, a quick transfer, and a solid arm--all
of which indicate that he should be able to stick at shortstop at the highest
level. On the second day of the showcase he did play CF and actually looked
very natural there, despite not playing there much at all over the past few
years. If for some reason things do not work out for Mercado at SS, he has the
athleticism, instincts, speed, quickness, and arm to transition to CF. At the
plate he was a bit inconsistent, and I felt that like he’s late with his
trigger and load at times. Regardless,
he features very good bat speed and quick wrists that allow the hit tool to
play up (at present). I didn’t get any
run times on Mercado, as he spent so much time barreling balls into the
outfield and working walks, but he was a nuisance on the basepaths, swiping
three bases over the course of the weekend. SYNOPSIS—Mercado showed out at the
FLDCS and is a legitimate athlete at a premium defensive position; I’d be
extremely surprised if he was not drafted in the first round of the draft<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 3B/OF Tucker
Neuhaus</b>: 6-3, 190, L/R, Louisville commit. Neuhaus plays shortstop for his
high school team and is committed to Louisville in part because of the coaching
staff’s willingness to let him play short for the Cardinals. During the
showcase weekend he played at third base and right field, both of which fit his
profile better. He has a long frame with more room to add mass in both his
upper and lower halves. He is pretty athletic, but he does not profile as a
shortstop at the next level. He looked decent at third base, showing off some
soft hands and plus arm strength, but he had some accuracy issues as his throws
tended to sail on him. I personally like him better as a RF, especially as he
continues to mature and add mass over the next few years. He put on a show in batting practice on the
first day, and it continued into game action, as he belted out a homerun off a
lefthanded pitcher. There is some length in his swing but throughout the
weekend he showcased some true pull power. During the second game, Neuhaus
swung a bit “uphill” at times and displayed that his long swing could get him
into trouble at times. Overall, Neuhaus presented an intriguing combination of
plus power potential and plus arm strength. I’m not entirely sure of his draft
prospects given his defensive profile, but
I liked the overall package.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 1B/OF Nick
Longhi</b>: 6-2, 212, R/R, LSU commit. Longhi made some noise this summer at
the Area Code Games in California, and he had a solid weekend in Lakeland for
the FLDCS. He has a muscle bound body with a thick lower half. Combine that
with a below-average arm, and I feel that his future probably lies at first
base rather than the outfield (although he is a solid athlete for such a big
guy). Longhi has a high hand set in the batter’s box, and he lowers his hands
during the pitcher’s delivery, which makes for a lot of pre-swing movement. The
slight hitch and hole in his swing makes for some swing and miss, but did not
present too much of an obstacle over the weekend, as he generates good bat
speed and easy plus power with plus-plus potential. At times he can hit
entirely with his upper body as he tends to “spin”, but his enormous strength
allows the power and bat to play at present. Down the road, he will have to
make some slight adjustments, but the bat has some serious juice. Again, I’m
not too sure on his draft prospects—the defensive profile may scare off some
teams—but the power is real, so even if he ends up in Baton Rouge, he remains a
college bat to keep an eye on over the next few years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 RHP/INF Brett
Hanewich</b>: 6-3, 208, S/R, Stanford commit. I don’t think he even played in
the field during game-action at the FLDCS, but if he did I missed it. I wasn’t
too enthralled with his showing during the two BP rounds, as he had a tendency
to jump at the ball and hit front-footed. His body is impressive and imposing
for an 18-year-old, as he is chiseled with broad shoulders. His fastball sat between 86-91 during his two
innings in Lakeland, but he showed out more in Jupiter, when he sat between
89-93 with a hammer curve between 73-75.
The pitch got a little loose at times, but it had a good shape and
flashed plus. His delivery was pretty clean overall, although one could nitpick
and say that it was a bit too mechanical/rigid and limited his momentum towards
the plate. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 C/3B Adrian Chacon</b>:
6-1, 195, R/R, UNC commit. Chacon saw limited time in the field for the West squad
at the FLDCS, but he was impressive during BP and I had the chance to see him briefly
at the WWBA in Jupiter. Chacon is solidly built with a muscular physique. I
felt that he profiled better as a catcher (although I did not get much of
chance to see him behind the plate), so he will probably be able to add on mass
without sacrificing much defensively behind the dish. At the WWBA he threw out
a runner trying to steal second base and clocked in a 1.89 pop time. It was
difficult to get a read on his receiving skills, but I was very high on his
ability in the batter’s box. At times he hit too much off his front-foot and
his hands got a little noisy and drifty, but overall Chacon was solid. He did a
fine job of throwing his top hand through the zone and creating a nice, fluid,
direct path to the ball. He also showed
the ability to backspin the ball and consistently square up pitches. It is
always hard to evaluate how high school catchers will be able to handle the
responsibilities of catching professionally, so my gut instinct is that Chacon
ends up in Chapel Hill, but scouts that are more familiar with Chacon may feel
that he has “it” so I would also not be surprised to see him popped in an early-mid
round rang of the 2013 draft.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 RHP Spencer
Trayner</b>: 6-0, 160, R/R. UNC commit. Chacon’s high school teammate, Trayner
is also a Tar Heel commit that performed well at the FLDCS and the WWBA. While
he doesn’t possess the traditional pitcher’s frame, Trayner was able to flash
solid-average to plus velocity at both events, sitting 90-92 in Lakeland and
91-93 in Jupiter. Trayner normally throws from the traditional high ¾ arm slot,
but on occasion he would drop down El Duque style and deliver a sidearm 87-88
mph fastball. Although he threw it sparingly,
Trayner also flashed a late-breaking 80 mph slider with good two-plane depth. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 RHP Dane Dunning</b>:
6-3, 190, R/R. Florida commit. Dunning features a long, lithe frame with room
for future projection. He has an easy
and seemingly clean delivery, and he appears to stay over himself well. Throwing from the common high ¾ arm slot, Dunning
has a solid release distance and stride length, which helps his 86-91 mph FB
play up a bit. The pitch appears to have some real life and jump in on
righthanded hitters. His secondary pitches, a 73-80 mph CRV and 80 mph CH, were
used sparingly so it was hard to get a true gauge on the quality, although the
curveball had good shape. Florida’s 2012 recruiting class was decimated due to
a plethora of high MLB draft choices, and 2013 may be no different. Dunning offers some serious projection and it
will be interesting to see how high his draft stock may rise this spring.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 MIF Christian
Arroyo</b>: 6-0, 180, R/R. Florida commit. Arroyo starred for USA Baseball’s
18U team that won the Gold medal at the World Championships is South Korea this
summer. I had the chance to interview Arroyo twice this summer and he is an
outstanding young man and was by far the best <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/high-school/2012/09/arroyo-mcguire-lead-team-usa-to-gold/"><span style="color: red;">interview</span></a> I conducted while
interning for Baseball America. On the field, Arroyo typically fits the “gamer”
profile as he does not have one loud or exceptional tool. However, he is an
extremely instinctual player. He features only average speed presently, and
given his thicker lower half, he projects best as a second baseman
professionally. His arm strength may also be average at best, but his transfer
and release are extremely quick. At the
plate Arroyo utilizes a short, compact swing. He was able to consistently
control the bat and square up pitches to make solid contact. Furthermore, Arroyo has an advanced approach
at the plate and a good feel for hitting in general—he was able to work the
count, use the entire field, and borderline pitches throughout the FLDCS
weekend and the WWBA tournament in Jupiter. High school “gamers” are not often
selected early in the draft, as pure athletes who feature more projection than
the polished yet understated Arroyo, so it is more likely that we see him
donning the Orange and Blue in 2013.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">More to come in the following days, including observations
on Brian Navaretto, Bernardo Bonifacio, Matthew Railey, Iramis Olivecia, Shaun
Anderson, Ian Hagenmiller, etc. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-85522914031207995862012-10-30T14:53:00.005-07:002012-10-30T14:53:50.728-07:00Some Thoughts & Observations from WWBA<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This past weekend I was able to attend the World Wood Bat
Association Championship, a tournament showcasing the largest(?) collection of domestic, amateur baseball talent, in Jupiter, Florida. The previous weekend I was
fortunate enough to cover the Florida Diamond Club Showcase in Lakeland, Florida
for Baseball America. My recaps for the three days of action at the Diamond
Club Showcase can be found <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/10/neuhas-arroyo-star-on-first-day-of-florida-diamond-club-showcase/"><span style="color: red;">here</span></a>,
<a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/10/diamond-club-pitching-dominates-morning-afternoon-sees-offense/#more-5488"><span style="color: red;">here</span></a>,
and <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/10/josh-greene-dazzles-in-diamond-club-finale/#more-5491"><span style="color: red;">here</span></a>
(all FREE). The Florida Diamond Club Showcase was a tremendous experience and I
was able to jot down some raw scouting notes on dozens of top prospects from
the state and talk to a handful of scouts and players (much of which I will be
disclosing on the blog in the future). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Needless to say, after seeing a number of high profile
amateurs such as Oscar Mercado and Brian Navaretto, I thought that my
experience in Lakeland would prepare for me for the WWBA weekend in Jupiter. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I was wrong. Much of
my confusion was due to the fact that I arrived midday and mid-tournament. The tournament was slated to begin on
Thursday—but weather only allowed one game to be completed. Friday was also
dicey, as the weather forecast steady rain, much of which was nonexistent. Regardless, because of the forecast I did not
travel the nearly five hours down to Jupiter until Saturday, at which point I
arrived at around 1 or 1:30. After
paying the entrance fee and obtaining a program I wandered over to the nearest
(and most visible) field—Roger Dean Stadium—spring training home for the St.
Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins.
Unfortunately, I had no idea who was playing—they don’t operate
scoreboards, have announcers, etc. and the tournament schedule had been
completely changed because of the weather.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Eventually, I was able to determine that I was watching the
Texas Scout Team Yankees, one of the traditional powerhouses at the WWBA, and
Farrah Scout, a team primarily composed of players from New Jersey and New
York. Although it is difficult for a Jersey boy like myself to admit---the
Northeasterners were completely outclassed. I could withstand the beatdown for
a couple of innings before I walked around the complex. Luckily, I was able to jot down a few notes
on players from the Texas Scout squad that were particularly interesting in the
hour or so that I got to see.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 SS Brett Boswell</b>: L/R, 6-0, 170, Texas commit; loose
athlete with rhythm at the plate, plays with swagger, quick wrists and ability
to barrel the ball with a quality, compact swing path<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 SS/2B/RHP Sheldon Neuse</b>: R/R, 6-0, 180, Oklahoma
commit; was playing 2B—showed athleticism, moved well laterally with clean
actions. Worked opposite field while at the plate—barreled a ball over the RF
head for a double, did a good job staying closed and working backside. Solid
runner, instincts on basepaths. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 IF/RHP Garrett Luna</b>: R/R, 6-1, 200. Corner profile—not a
premium athlete and “goofy” actions while running. Saw the bell well at the
plate—good feel for hitting and advanced approach<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 LHP Tyler Alexande</b>r: 6-2, 175, TCU commit. Athletic,
projectable frame. Showed a clean delivery. Stays over top of himself and
repeated delivery well from both windup and stretch. Solid command of FB down
in zone. Slightly slower arm speed and lower release point/slot on CH. Plus potential
on breaking ball/slider with late tilt and depth.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite being pounded and outdone on all fronts, one player
from the Farrah Scout squad did stand out as a sleeper type.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 RHP Shawn Kanwisher</b>: 6-2, 190. Athletic, lithe frame
that should be able to handle more mass, and hopefully velo down the road. Sink
and armside run on FB—solid action on the pitch. Little command of the pitch as
he began tired. Not a premium prospect or “guy” per se, but he is a high school
teammate of one of the top prep arms in the upcoming 2013 draft, LHP Rob
Kaminsky. As such, Kanwisher may benefit from the extra attention that Kaminsky
will garner this spring.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Later I wandered around the back fields of the complex,
wading through throngs of parents, college recruiting coordinators, scouts,
crosscheckers, and kiosk vendors selling shirts, bats, gloves, hats, etc. to
find a few other games going on. In many ways it was a sensory overload, and I
wasn’t able to take quality notes until later in the night when I had settled
in. While I was trying to keep my eyes
on two fields at once, a handful of young athletes stood out.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 OF/1B KJ Woods</b> (Royals Scout Team)</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">: Ft Mill HS, South
Carolina. L/R. 6-4, 208. Only saw one AB—he struck out but it was a quality AB—worked
the count, fouled off at least four pitches, caught out a bit out in front a
few times. Large, mature body, but he is an athlete. Played in RF and did a
good job of turning and running on a ball hit over his head. Gunned down a
runner trying to stretch hit into a triple with solid throw to cutoff man
(solid avg. to plus arm). Would’ve loved to see more in game action.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2014 SS Maurice Cooley</b> (Royals Scout Team): Fleming Island
HS, Orange Park, FL. R/R. 6-0, 180. Very athletic body and strong, solid frame.
Didn’t get a run time on him, but am quite sure he is at least a plus runner.
Good range in field. Juice in the bat—flashed oppo power, flying out to RF,
warning track. Am looking forward to catching him play this spring, as he is in
the Jacksonville area.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 CF Josh Hart</b> (East Cobb Baseball): Parkview HS,
Georgia. L/L, 6-3, 190, Georgia Tech commit. Plus athlete with body for
projection. Good reads and quick breaks in the outfield—near diving play in
shallow RCF. Premium projection and ceiling.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2013 3B/RHP Travis DeMerritte</b> (East Cobb Baseball): R/R.
6-1, 185, South Carolina commit. Solid body and frame. Athletic in field, moved
well laterally at hot corner and showed solid instincts. Plus arm in the field
(didn’t see him pitch). At the plate he has noisy hands and an extended load/trigger
phase but he generates plus bat speed. Patient, advanced approach—didn’t chase
at all or expand zone.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>2014 RHP Cobi Johnson</b> (Cardinals Scout Team): James W.
Mitchell HS, Florida. R/R, 6-4, 175. Body has real room for projection down the
road. Arm action is clean and delivery looks nice, easy, with limited effort.
He does throw slightly across body as his foot strike is on third base side and
he closes himself off a bit. 89-91 mph FB with late life down in zone. 80 mph
CH. 76-77 CRV with good shape.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, in the nightcap I was fortunate enough to see a
premium prep arm in action. Jordan Sheffield, a 2013 6-1, 180 pound righthander
out of Tullahoma, Tennessee came out of the bullpen to relieve his younger
brother, 2014 lefthander Justus Sheffield. While the younger Sheffield was
solid in his own right, sitting 87-91, the eldest stole the show. Jordan’s delivery was a bit smoother and more
athletic, and he was able to consistently fire off 95 and 96 mph fastballs,
hitting 98 once. For more on the
Sheffield Bros check out Nathan Rode’s recap at BA <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/10/salazar-sheffield-light-up-radar-guns-with-ohio-warhawks/"><span style="color: red;">here</span></a>
and <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/high-school/high-heat/2012/2613780.html"><span style="color: red;">here</span></a>.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rode (@BAHighSchool) and Conor Glassey (@conorglassey) were
at the showcase all week, so for more information I would highly recommend the
BA blogs. Baseball Prospectus also had a significant contingent in Jupiter so I’m
sure they will have some more quality analysis on the WWBA forthcoming.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I still have a significant amount of raw notes left over
from the Florida Diamond Club Showcase and the WWBA, so I will provide some
more information about players that stood out over the next few days (provided I
feel motivated). </span><o:p></o:p></div>
Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-30904765078534716022012-10-10T12:43:00.000-07:002012-10-10T12:43:04.643-07:00Brenden Webb, OF, Orioles<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Player</i>: <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/89739"><span style="color: red;">Brenden
Webb</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Position</i>: OF<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Bats/Throws</i>:
Left/Left<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Hometown/School</i>: San
Diego, CA/Palomar Junior College (Calif.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Height/Weight</i>:
6-3/190<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Drafted</i>: 30<sup>th</sup>
round and 896<sup>th</sup> overall by the Baltimore Orioles in 2009<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Background/Stats</i>:
Webb was undrafted coming out of high school so he stayed close to home,
attending Palomar Junior College in San Diego County. His freshman season at <a href="http://www.palomar.edu/athletics/baseball/default.htm"><span style="color: red;">Palomar</span></a>
was impressive enough to earn him a spot at the University of Southern
California, but the Orioles nabbed him in the 30<sup>th</sup> round of the 2009
draft and offered him a well-above slot bonus of $250,000. Webb signed close to the deadline in 2009 and
only got 43 at-bats for the Orioles Gulf Coast League affiliate. In 2010, as a
20-year-old Webb hit .244/.348/.412 in the Appalachian League. Webb began the
following season in Low-A Delmarva, where he struggled. He hit just
.218/.344/.288 in his first taste of the South Atlantic League. Given his
struggles with Low-A pitching, the Orioles assigned Webb to the Delmarva roster
again in 2012. The 22-year-old spent the vast majority of the season in the
Sally League, hitting .251/.422/.457, before a late-season promotion to High-A
Frederick in mid-August. Webb hit .270/.382/.500 in just 74-at bats with the
Keys. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Firsthand
Observations:</i> I saw Webb play in Hickory, North Carolina against the Texas
Rangers Low-A affiliate Hickory Crawdads on July 7<sup>th</sup>. I had no prior knowledge of Webb and made the
trip out to Hickory to watch a number of other guys, specifically Rougned Odor,
Jorge Alfaro, Luis Sardinas of Hickory and Nicky Delmonico, Jason Esposito, and
Parker Bridwell of Delmarva. However,
Webb immediately caught my eye pre-game. Simply put, Webb looked good in the
uniform. No, we’re not selling jeans here, but listed at 6-3, 190 pounds, Webb
has the tall, loose, and muscular frame that you tend to see at the highest
level of professional baseball. Although
it would be foolish to read too much into pre-game calisthenics and warm-ups,
Webb’s movements were smooth and he appeared to be the most athletic player on
the Delmarva roster. His arm appeared strong and his arm action mechanically
sound, although I did not get to see him air it out in game action. Webb played RF in the game, as he did for the
overwhelming majority of the season, and showed some defensive chops and solid
instincts when he quickly and correctly read the ball off of the bat and
flashed impressive closing speed to nab a bleeder of the bat of a right-handed
hitter near the RF line.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the plate, Webb did a good job of staying balanced and
tracking pitches. Utilizing a slightly open stance, Webb stayed balanced
throughout his load and weight transfer. In his first two plate appearances
Webb faced Hickory starter, LHP Kevin Matthews. He did a fine job of tracking
sliders and some close fastballs below the knees to work a walk in the first
inning. In the second, Webb struck out on three pitches (took a CRV, fouled off
a FB, and swung through a nice CRV), as Matthews had settled in during the
third frame. In the fifth, against reliever Arlett Mavare, Webb grounded out to
third base on a low and away CH and turned in a well-below average 4.5
home-to-first split, although he got a late start out of the box and did not
appear to be running full speed. Webb flew out to CF in the eighth and worked a
walk in the ninth. All in all, the results were nothing to truly write home
about, put I was relatively encouraged by Webb’s set up, quiet hands, and
ability to track pitches. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Going Forward</i>:
Webb’s 2012 season was a solid albeit unspectacular campaign. When looking at Webb’s career statistics, it
is evident that the young man has a propensity to strike out (with a career K
rate of 28.4%). However, Webb has also clearly
improved his plate discipline, as the 22-year-old drew a career high 98 walks
and raised his OBP nearly 80 points in the process. Furthermore, Webb began to
tap into some of his power potential, hitting a career-high 14 homeruns.
Overall, I was pretty happy to stumble upon Webb, and surprised to learn that
he was a 30<sup>th</sup> round selection, given his impressive size and
athleticism. In that same vein, I completely understood why Baltimore was
willing to go way above slot to get the young man to sign. His absolute ceiling actually appeared higher
to me than that of his more high-profile teammates (Nicky Delmonico, Jason
Esposito). With that being said, like so
many other young, athletic corner outfielders, Webb’s ability to hit will
determine how far he progresses. Webb will be 23 years old come Opening Day,
and I would expect him to start off 2013 in High-A Frederick in what figures to
be an extremely important year in his </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">developmental process. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Ceiling</i>:
Solid-Average RF<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Feasibly</i>: 4<sup>th</sup>
OF<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Floor</i>: Double-A</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-8061191554183389982012-10-03T18:15:00.002-07:002012-10-03T18:15:21.689-07:00Portrait: Robert Benincasa<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Player: </i> <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/2817"><span style="color: red;">Robert
Benincasa</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Position: </i>RP<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Throws: </i>Right<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Hometown/HS: </i>Tampa,
FL/Armwood HS<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Height/Weight: </i>6-2,
195<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Drafted: </i>7th round
and 234<sup>th</sup> overall pick of the Washington Nationals (2012)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Background/Stats:</i>
Benincasa was drafted in the 33<sup>rd</sup> round (and the 1000<sup>th</sup>
overall pick) of the 2009 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. He earned first team
All-State honors during his time at Armwood High School in Tampa, and elected
to attend Florida State University rather than sign with Toronto. As a freshman, in 2010 Benincasa was shuttled
between the bullpen and starting rotation, making a few starts mid-week for the
Seminoles. In 2011 longtime FSU manager showed a bit more confidence in
Benincasa, utilizing the righthander in mid-relief and setup situations.
Benincasa went 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA and 24 K in 32.2 IP over 20
appearances. Benincasa’s 2012 was by far
his most successful season, as he truly came into his own as the Seminoles
closer. He went 4-2, 1.32 ERA with 16 saves and racked up 58 strikeouts (to
only 7 walks) in 41 innings and helped Florida State advance to the College
World Series. The Washington Nationals selected Benincasa with the 234<sup>th</sup>
overall pick, and according to Baseball America he signed for $145,000.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Firsthand
Observations: </i>Even as a longtime Seminole fan, I knew very little about
Benincasa before the 2012 season. I had
seen him pitch in a few games on television with mixed results, but those that
I talked to were pretty high on his potential and arsenal. Fortunately, I was able to see Benincasa
pitch many times over the course of the spring and summer. Listed at 6-2, 195, Benincasa has a nice tall
frame and thick legs. Unlike many relievers, Benincasa works from a full windup
when runners are not on base, and his movements in the windup are clean,
balanced, and athletic. He does a fine job of staying overtop of his body
throughout his delivery and features solid posture, but his release point and
arm angles can be a bit inconsistent, particularly with offspeed pitches.
However, since Benincasa will almost certainly be used exclusively as a
reliever “tipping” his pitches should not be too much of an issue, as the release
point inconsistency is relatively miniscule.
Benincasa offers a true three-piece mix, as his fastball typically works
between 90 and 93 miles per hour. The pitch features some late arm-side run,
and Benincasa showed solid command, particularly glove-side. His primary offspeed pitch of choice is his
slider, a sharp 78-82 mph offering that has late two-plane depth. Benincasa
proved to be particularly adroit at commanding the slider throughout FSU’s 2012
season, and it appears as if he was able to continue the trend with the Auburn
Doubledays of the NYPL, as the righthander only surrendered 3 walks in his 23.1
summer innings. Finally, Benincasa also
showed a decent feel for a low 80’s changeup, but he rarely needed to utilize
the pitch at the collegiate level. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Going Forward: </i>After
dominating in 23.1 innings in the short-season NYPL (2-0, 3.09 ERA, 32 K, 27 H,
3 BB) like a college arm should, I would expect Benincasa to break 2013 with
Hagerstown, Washington’s Low-A club, but I also would not be surprised to see
him start the year with their High-A club in Potomac. The entire package is
nothing too sexy—the fastball is solid-average, the slider a solid pitch and I
could argue for a plus grade, while the changeup is currently fringe-average
with room for further development. He
probably will not end up being an impact arm at the MLB level, but I would be
surprised if, health permitting, Benincasa is not a setup man or middle
reliever in the big leagues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Etc.: </i>See this
excellent YouTube <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Db3AbLOtbXw"><span style="color: red;">video</span></a>
by Jeff Reese/Bullpen Banter in order to form your own opinions.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-62895052325023113102012-10-02T12:49:00.003-07:002012-10-02T12:49:49.103-07:00Portrait: Phillies 3B Maikel Franco<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Player</i>: <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/92975"><span style="color: red;">Maikel
Franco</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Position</i>: 3B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Listed Height/Weight</i>:
6-1, 180<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Bats/Throws</i>: R/R<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Hometown</i>: Azua,
Dominican Republic<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Acquired</i>: Signed
by the Phillies on January 13, 2010<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Background/Stats</i>: Lauded
for his power potential, Franco garnered a $100,000 signing bonus from the
Philadelphia Phillies in January 2010.
According to Baseball America, many teams were scared away after Franco
turned in an abhorrent 7.7 second 60-yard dash time, but well-respected
international supervisor Sal Agostinelli saw past the poor foot speed and
believed in Franco’s other tools and potential. In 2010, Franco reported to the
Phillies’ Gulf Coast League team in Clearwater and hit .222/.292/.330 in 194
at-bats as a 17-year-old. In 2011, the
Phillies sent Franco to Williamsport, their short-season affiliate in the New
York-Penn League before a brief stint with their full-season affiliate in the
South Atlantic League, the Lakewood Blue Claws. Franco only managed a meager
.123/149/.200 in just 65 at-bats with Lakewood, and he was reassigned to
Williamsport, where he finished the 2011 season. While Franco’s struggles in Low-A were to be
expected given his youth and inexperience (only 18 at the time), the results at
Williamsport painted a much prettier portrait of the player. Franco hit
.287/.367/.411 in 202 at-bats for the club. In 2012, Franco broke the spring
with the Lakewood Blue Claws, as the Phillies felt that he would be able to
handle the transition to full-season ball in the South Atlantic League. Statistically speaking Franco’s 2012 was a
tremendous success. He spent the majority of the season as a 19-year-old in a
league in which the <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/04/median-age-for-every-full-season-minor-league/"><span style="color: red;">average
(median) age is 22</span></a> and hit .280/.336/.439 and began to tap into some of his
power with 32 2B and 14 HR. However, it
was truly a tale of two halves, as Franco hit .207/.269/.338 before the Sally
All-Star Break and a whopping .346/.395/.530 after the break.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Clearly, Franco had a breakthrough second-half and his late
season surge will probably allow the Phillies to start him in High-A next
season. With that being said, I was able
to see Franco in game action during my time in North Carolina and the youngster
clearly still has issues that need addressing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Firsthand
Observations: </i>I had the opportunity to see Franco and the Lakewood Blue
Claws play a doubleheader against the Hickory Crawdads while on assignment for
my internship with Baseball America. As I mentioned above, Franco really came
into his own during the second half of the season, and given the fact that I
watched Franco play on July 22<sup>nd</sup> (post All-Star break), one would
expect Franco to have put on a show. I mean he finished the month with a
.327/.389/.496 line. However, my fellow
intern and I both came away from the two games unimpressed with Franco. Obviously, it would be foolish to draw too
much from one day’s worth of game action, but there were some red flags.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First, was the body. Now, Franco is not a “bad-body” type of
player, but he looked heavier than his listed 180 pounds (I’d say about
190-195) with some baby fat. His
6-foot-1 frame leaves little room for further projection. He also looked a bit sloppy in the field with
his actions, struggling to field balls cleanly and explode into a good throwing
position. All in all, he looked very
sluggish and disinterested in the field.
One positive, however, is his arm strength which would easily grade out
at plus (60) and perhaps plus-plus (70).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As I mentioned in the background section, Franco is clearly
not a threat on the basepaths.
Unfortunately, I either did not either clock his home-first splits or
forgot to record them, as I don’t have anything on his foot-speed in my
notes. Regardless, one should safely be
able to assume that his speed is below-average at best.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Third basemen and any corner position player make their
living with the lumber. Franco’s strong showing in 2012 as a 19-year-old should
not be discredited. Obviously he was able to adjust to the environment and
level of pitching in the second half to put up some solid numbers. However, in the two games that I saw him,
Franco went 1-for-6 with 2 K, and I can’t remember him barreling a ball. While the results weren’t particularly
impressive, I was also not a fan of the process. I felt that Franco started with his hands to
close to his head and body. As the
pitcher got into his windup and prepared to release the ball, Franco began a
lengthy load process in which his hands went down, up, and down again. All of this movement and noise led to an
extremely lengthy swing. One could see the potential for outlandish power if
solid contact were made, but the elongated swing path really seemed to hinder
any chance for barreling half-way decent pitches. Over the course of the double header Franco
was caught out front-footed numerous times and he did not show the ability to
adequately diagnose breaking pitches out of the hand. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Far too many times I feel that people try to isolate a flaw
within the hitting process. It is easy and convenient to say that X causes Y,
and I am tempted to trace Franco’s problems with his setup and noisy trigger. However, it should be remembered that I only
saw Franco in six at-bats. Perhaps he
was just feeling the grind from playing every day in his first full season and
was lackadaisical with his attention to detail.
Maybe he was not prepared to play because of the weather forecast (was
supposed to rain yet again) or was not particularly thrilled of the idea of
playing a double header in 95 degree heat.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Going Forward</i>:
Franco will most likely begin the 2013 season in the Florida State League,
where I hope to be able see him again. The
power potential is impressive, but I’m not sure how much it will play at the
next level given his current propensity to get pull-happy, front-footed, and be
lengthy in his swing. If there is one thing that did surprise me in going back
to do research for this portrait, it is that Franco only struck out in 14.4% of
his plate appearances. Given what I saw I was expecting it to be much
higher. With that being said, while the
results/statistics from his 2012 campaign are encouraging, I personally would
not be willing to bet on a lengthy MLB career (feel free to bash me in the comments). However, since he is so young,
many of his issues and flaws can still be addressed over the coming two or
three years, and it will be interesting to see how Franco adjusts to quality
breaking balls.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-85202149845669730902012-10-01T12:34:00.000-07:002012-10-01T12:34:04.608-07:00I'm Back?!?!<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hello? It has been two and a half months since my last post
and I don’t have much of an excuse for my lack of updates/profiles. While I was
interning at Baseball America I had the opportunity to see many minor league
games in the Durham/Raleigh/Burlington area. I had meant to keep writing and
updating the blog during my free time, but too often I would come home from a
game or the Baseball America offices and just veg out and watch Netflix (Tim Riggins is my hero). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Luckily, I kept notes upon notes upon notes on players that
I saw, and I promised myself that I would begin writing down my observations
when I had time. Now, after a week of “acclimating myself” back home, and fully
removed from my internship with BA, I’m up to the task. Hopefully, given my newfound abundance of
leisure time, I will be posting something every (week)day for the foreseeable
future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Today, instead of starting out with a player that I saw over
the summer, I will offer up a portrait of somebody I this past spring in
Tallahassee—former Florida State and current Tigers 2B Devon Travis. As a lifelong Seminole fan, even as a young
pup growing up in New Jersey, I had been able to catch a few FSU games on ESPNU
and in the CWS the past few years, and I liked what I saw from Travis. But having seen him firsthand circa 20 times
this spring, I really fell in love with his game (even though I tend to wax
poetic about little second basemen).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Player: </i><a href="http://www.seminoles.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/travis_devon00.html">Devon
Travis</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Position: </i>2B<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Bats/Throws: </i>R/R<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Hometown/HS: </i>Wellington
, Florida/Palm Beach Central HS<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Drafted:</i> 13<sup>th</sup>
round and 424<sup>th</sup> overall pick by the Detroit Tigers<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Background/Stats:</i> Undrafted
out of high school, Travis earned first-team all-state honors as a senior at
Palm Beach Central High School, but profiled best as a college player given his
relative lack of loud tools. Upon enrolling in Florida State, Travis quickly
established himself and started 46 games as a true freshman in 2010. He hit
.276/.331/.436 and was 5-6 in SB attempts in his first collegiate action. As a
sophomore in 2011, with the new BBCOR bats that limited offensive production
nationwide, Travis improved his line to .329/.455/.519 and was 5-10 in SB attempts.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Firsthand Observations</i>:
Upon first glance Travis does not stand out. Listed a 5’9 and 183 pounds,
Travis has thick legs, a squat frame, and is clearly maxed out physically with
no room for projection. Additionally, after
a couple of solid collegiate seasons in 2010 and 2011, Travis underwent knee
surgery so going into 2012 there were significant questions about his speed and
lateral quickness. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, throughout the 2012 season, Travis erased any of my
personal doubts, and did much to bolster Coach Mike Martin’s effusive praise
about his speedy recovery and commitment to rehab/offseason workouts. He flashed tremendous lateral movement,
especially to his left and had the knack for making the sensational play. Additionally, while countless other
collegiate and young amateur players may make the spectacular play and fall
asleep on the routine, Travis showed a constant commitment to detail throughout
the season. While his arm is below
average and will restrict him to 2B (see also: his frame/athleticism), it will
not be a concern at the keystone. Finally, Travis’ ability to turn the double play
is well above-average—his extremely soft and quick hands and sufficiently quick
transfer allowed FSU’s young pitchers to work around their mistakes throughout 2012.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Given Travis’ limited stolen base totals, thick frame, and
knee operation, one would not expect the second baseman to be much of a burner. Throughout the year I clocked Travis between
4.08 and 4.4 on home to first splits, with the majority of the times circa 4.2
and 4.25. Viewed through lens of the
20-80 scouting scale, the righthanded hitting Travis grades out at plus to
solid-average (60-55) runner. Again, given his frame and injury history, there
is little room for further projection, so Travis will probably be a 55-50
runner over the course of his professional career.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At the plate Travis finished 2012 with a career best eight
homeruns, hitting .325/.400/.504 in the process. He particularly flashed his power late in the
season, during the regional and super-regional games. He also finished with a team best 24 doubles.
Travis, like most other FSU hitters, is quiet at the plate and likes to let the
ball get deep and hit off his backside.
His bat speed is probably average or solid-average and he ran into
trouble when pitchers were able to pound him right below the hands. Luckily, Travis rarely ran into the kind of
pitcher that could consistently challenge him with the necessary command and
velocity in his collegiate career. However, as he climbs the ladder
professionally, Travis will have to prove that he can handle plus velocity in
on the hands. Furthermore, while Travis
improved upon his plate discipline (which was questioned early in his career) and
showed that he could work deep into counts he also had a tendency to flail at
breaking balls in the dirt. Again,
Travis’ ability to read quality breaking balls out of the hand will be tested
throughout his minor-league journey in the next couple of years. However, on
the whole Travis was a solid hitter—mechanically nearly every hitter this side
of Miguel Cabrera has a hole—and he showed the ability to consistently barrel
balls and keep a level swing plane. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When you put together the whole package, (I think) you get a
plus (60-65) defender at 2B, with solid-average (55) speed, a <b><i>potentially</i></b>
fringe-average (45) to average (50) hit tool, and below-average power (40) at
an up-the-middle position. So <b><i>potentially,
Travis profiles as a 50-player or a fringe-average everyday regular </i></b>(solid
value for a 14<sup>th</sup> round pick, no?).
A scout that I talked to before the 2012 season started was not too high
on Travis given his frame and questionable hit tool, but another scout that I
talked to after the season (and after Travis had been drafted) was very
complimentary of the second baseman and thought that he had an outside chance
of playing in the big leagues. Clearly,
the Detroit Tigers organization was also high on Travis, as they handed out an
over-slot bonus of $200,000 to their 13<sup>th</sup> round pick. According to Baseball America’s 2012 Draft
Database only five other players drafted between the 10<sup>th</sup> and 15<sup>th</sup>
rounds were awarded higher bonuses (Cardinals LHP Max Foody Cardinals, Braves OF
Connor Lien, Rays C Taylor Hawkins C Rays, Mets RHP Chris Flexen, and Blue Jays
LHP Ryan Borucki).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/2845">Travis</a>
signed with the Tigers relatively quickly (after FSU was eliminated from CWS)
and played in 25 games with Detroit’s NYPL affiliate Connecticut before a hand
injury ended his professional debut on August 4<sup>th</sup>. The 21-year-old
hit .280/.352/.441 with three homers in his 93 at-bats. And while the preliminary results are
encouraging, because he profiles only as a second baseman, a lot of pressure
will be on the bat, and Travis’ ability to handle the lumber (and stay healthy)
over the next two seasons will probably provide much more clarity on his future
role.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, cool little article on his signing: </span><a href="http://www.pbgametime.com/news/ex-palm-beach-central-star-devon-travis-signs-pro-contract-with-detroit-tigers-will-forgo-senior-year-at-fsu/138750/">http://www.pbgametime.com/news/ex-palm-beach-central-star-devon-travis-signs-pro-contract-with-detroit-tigers-will-forgo-senior-year-at-fsu/138750/</a></div>
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Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-48570578547945698432012-07-14T12:39:00.002-07:002012-07-14T12:39:37.026-07:00Thoughts on the Bristol White Sox<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A couple of days ago I included
some of my thoughts and observations about a number of players from the
Burlington Royals, and today I am going to discuss what I saw from their
opponents from July 4-6, the Bristol White Sox.
As I mentioned previously, I wrote a feature article on the White Sox’s
first-round draft pick, Courtney Hawkins for Baseball America (<a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/prospect-bulletin/2012/2613676.html">link</a>). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The BA article was predominately
positive, as it highlighted Hawkins’ raw tools and potential for future
success. Indeed, there is much to like
about <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/343">Hawkins</a>. Like Starling, Hawkins’ body immediately
stands out. However, unlike Starling,
Hawkins does not need to add and probably should not add more muscle mass at
this point in his career. The
18-year-old is listed at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, which definitely appeared
accurate in person. Based on his size
and athleticism alone, one can easily project power in Hawkins’ future, and a
scout in attendance noted that Hawkins generates plus bat speed with his strong
wrists. While he patrolled center field
for Bristol, the scout felt that Hawkins may have to move to a corner outfield
spot down the road. I agree and was a
little disappointed by his speed, as Hawkins consistently turned in 4.4 and 4.5
seconds on home-to-first splits. He does
feature strong arm and looked to make instinctive reads off of the bat, so he
should be fine in either outfield position.
At the plate Hawkins struggled a bit throughout the series. The first game he was pitched backwards
almost every at-bat, which he clearly was not expecting. He took a couple of
ugly swings and did not hit a ball hard.
However, he showed some flashes of his potential in the final two games
of the series, and he showed the ability to adjust to how pitchers attacked
him. After striking out on three
straight fastballs in his 1<sup>st</sup> AB of the second game, he jumped on a
first pitch fastball and drove it for a double into the right-center field gap
in his second at bat. Similarly, later
in the series he put together some good AB and drove a 2-2 slider back up the
middle for a hard-hit single. While I
was at first expecting a bit more out of the first-round talent, I learned that
it would be foolish to expect too much from a teenager getting his first taste
of professional ball. The bottom line is
that Hawkins has the physical tool to succeed at the highest level—the ability
to make key adjustments and respond to failure will ultimately determine just
how far Hawkins will go.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unfortunately, none of the other
players that I saw for Bristol particularly caught my eye. I asked the scout that I sat with for two of
the games if there were any players to look out for, but he also seemed to
think that Hawkins was the only real ‘guy’ that the team had. With that being said, I still took down some
notes on a handful of players, such as Nick Basto, James Hudelson, Steven
Nikorak, Jake Cose and Jefferson Olacio.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/85762/log">Olacio</a>
is the player with the most potential, as the 18-year-old is a 6-foot-7, 230
pound left-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic. In his previous start Olacio had mowed down
his competition, striking out seven in five innings of work and not walking
any. However, against Burlington both his stuff and command were lacking any
#veneno. It seemed as if his command
issue stemmed from inconsistent mechanics—he had a tendency to pitch with only
his upper half. An inconsistent release
point combined with some significant arm drag led to a rather unremarkable
performance in which Olacio’s fastball ranged from 87-90 mph and his breaking
balls (79-82) were too often either 58-footers or spinning across the heart of
plate. When it was all said and done
with Olacio had thrown four innings, allowed four runs on two hits and seven
walks, while striking out three. While the start was not impressive by any
means, it is important to recognize that Olacio is still on 18 years old and
may still be growing into his body. Over
the next few years he must continue to work hard to refine his movements, mechanics,
and feel for pitching in order to be more consistent.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some brief thoughts on the other
guys that I mentioned: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->I expected more out of <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/1990">Nick Basto</a>.
The shortstop is a fifth-round pick from this year’s draft, but he is not an
elite athlete and will probably have to move to second, or more likely third
base down the line. He put together a couple of scrappy AB, but was overpowered
by fringe-average fastballs in on his hands. The scout that I talked to was not
very impressed and felt that he would turn into a punch-less 3<sup>rd</sup>
baseman.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]--><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/1998">3B Steve
Nikorak</a> (R/R 6’2, 215) made some nice plays defensively—one to his left and
one to his right—that required accurate and strong throws from his knees. While he flashed the leather and had an
athletic body type, the bat was nothing special, and he is a 22-year-old that
was just drafted out of college (Temple), so one would be wise to remain
skeptical until he continues to hit up the minor-league ladder.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]--><a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/95106/log">RHP
Jake Cose</a> (6’5, 180) is 21-years-old in his 2<sup>nd</sup> year w/ Bristol
who was drafted in the 27<sup>th</sup> round of the 2011 draft. He showed some decent stuff (88-91 FB, 78-81
SL, 78-81 CH) and has a projectable frame, but I think that if he was able to put on some more muscle mass he would be able to add some velo and improve a fringy arsenal into a more potent collection.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->RHP James Hudelson (6’4, 200) is a 22 year old
out of Missouri that is in his first season of professional ball. He featured a
¾ delivery that created some deception and a nice angle for his 88-90 mph
2-seamer. He also flashed a couple of
average sliders between 74-75 mph. Given
his age and limited upside, Hudelson’s ceiling appears to be a mid-relief type
of guy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-23980245612013131502012-07-12T18:14:00.001-07:002012-07-12T18:14:02.757-07:00"Scouting" in North Carolina<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last week I started my summer
internship with Baseball America in Durham, North Carolina. While the majority of my work for BA will be
conducted within the confines of their main office, there are a number of minor
league teams within two or three hours. Earlier this week the site posted an article
that I wrote about the Chicago White Sox’s recent first round pick, Courtney
Hawkins, which you can read <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/prospect-bulletin/2012/2613676.html">here</a>
(if you are a BA subscriber). If you are
not a BA subscriber, the basic gist of the piece is that while Hawkins is “struggling”,
the 18-year old is still getting adjusted to the rigors of professional
baseball and has the raw ingredients for a special major-league player. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I was able to see Hawkins and a
number of other notable and rather unremarkable young players last week, as I
attended three games between the Burlington Royals and the Bristol White Sox of
the Rookie-level Appalachian League, and one game between the Delmarva
Shorebirds and the Hickory Crawdads of the Low-A South Atlantic League. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Today I’ll
include some of my notes and thoughts on various Burlington Royals, but
tomorrow or the next few days I will write about some players from Bristol,
Delmarva, and Hickory.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Burlington
features a number of impressive players for such a low level of the minor
leagues. The first and most well-known
is center fielder Bubba Starling, a first-round pick in 2011 who is a
tremendous athlete. Listed at 6-foot-4
and 180 pounds, Starling signed for around $5 million, spurning the Nebraska Cornhuskers
football team for a chance to play professional baseball. He is extremely athletic and the body absolutely
looks the part. He has the frame to add
some more muscle mass as he grows older, but he definitely looks like he
belongs when he steps on the field. Even
though I only saw three games, it was apparent that Starling is still raw, but
the tools are there. His swing has some
holes in it and I think that he will struggle with quality breaking balls all
the way up the ladder, but he generates bat speed and showed the ability to
work the opposite field, as he smashed a low and away fastball (that was
probably a ball) into the right-CF gap for a triple. His arm and speed are both solid-average to
plus tools, and scouts project plus-power onto his bat. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Burlington’s second baseman for the
series was Kenny Diekroeger, a 21-year-old 4<sup>th</sup> round pick in this
past month’s draft from Stanford University.
You can read more about Diekroeger’s path to the big leagues from one of
my fellow BA interns, John Sandberg, <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-bulletin/2012/2613690.html">here</a>. Diekroeger has a solid build and good body
and is listed at 6’2, 190, which seemed accurate when looking in person. He moved over to shortstop for one game in
the series, but he definitely profiles better at second base. He is athletic and made a very nice play on a
high chopper to his left that required an accurate, quick release. While I only saw him make a few plays in the
field, I’d say that he profiles as an average defensive second baseman. Like most prospects, Diekroeger’s future will
rely on his ability to hit. While at
Stanford he struggled to make a consistent impact, and his production actually
decreased each season. While his numbers
have been solid thus far and he performed well in the series, I was not sold on
his potential. A couple of his hits were
jam-shots and bleeders that found open space and I really believe that anything
above average velocity will give Diekroeger trouble. Given his age, I’d expect Diekroeger to move
up to Low-A, if not High-A to start off 2013.
As he climbs the ladder we will truly see what kind of bat Diekroeger
brings to the table.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Many of the other Royals were
solid players, but lack the pedigree or notoriety of Starling and
Diekroeger. In the above referenced
piece about Diekroger, is a short blog post on Terrance Gore, a diminutive
20-year-old outfielder with blazing speed.
He has a 30 (maybe 20) grade arm and will probably be reduced to a
corner outfield spot (unless they are willing to take the defensive hit), which
greatly reduces his value. He has been
rumored to be clocked at an astounding 3.8 seconds to first base from the
right-side which grades out higher than “80” or elite, but I clocked him at a
4.03 while a scout I sat with had him a 3.95 on another occasion. Regardless, Gore’s speed makes him an
interesting prospect to keep an eye on.
I really liked a pair of left-handed starters that the Royals threw out,
Patrick Conroy and Colin Rodgers, but because I was focused on Hawkins, Gore,
and the other top guys (for my piece for Baseball America) I was not able to
get as much detail as I’d like.
Regardless, here are some of my skeleton notes for the more
under-the-radar Burlington guys:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->LHP Patrick Conroy (6’4, 218), 20 years old, 1<sup>st</sup>
season out of J.C. (Marin CC in Cali), 32<sup>nd</sup> round pick<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->86-89 FB<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->84-85 cutter<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->75-77 curve<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Pitchability guy—still needs to polish some of
his secondary command, but overall strong control<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->SS Humberto Arteaga (R/R, 6’1, 160), 18 year old
out of Caracas<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Listed as best fielder in Royal’s farm system by
Baseball America, but I did not see it at all during the series<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">§<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Made a couple of errors on routine plays, also
did not appear to get to balls in the hole that I thought he had a shot for<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">§<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Didn’t appear to be playing hard, running hard
down the line<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Good frame, body—can add mass down the road,
needs to<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->F-8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->5-3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->1b (2-2 count; made nice adjustment—after
missing slider earlier, went back up middle for hit)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->RHP Jake Junis (6’3, 210), 29<sup>th</sup> round
out of Illinois HS in 2012<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->87-90 FB<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->78-81 CH<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->LHP Daniel Stumpf (6’2, 200), San Jacinto
College, 21 years old, 9<sup>th</sup> round pick in 2012<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Good CH<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Late life, burst on FB<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">·<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->LHP Colin Rodgers (6’0, 180), 3<sup>rd</sup>
round pick in 2012 out of LA HS, 18 years old<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->86-88 FB<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->82-83 SL/CT (scout said created good angle with arm
action)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->72-75 CRV<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 1.0in; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">o<span style="font-size: 7pt;">
</span><!--[endif]-->74-75 CH<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-32986917157401885622012-06-27T10:26:00.000-07:002012-06-27T10:26:09.004-07:00A Few Thoughts on James Ramsey<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After being picked 23<sup>rd</sup>
overall in the 2012 MLB First-Year Player Draft, Florida State’s James Ramsey
agreed to terms with the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this week. Many
well-respected baseball writers were not thrilled with St. Louis’ pick of
Ramsey, feeling that the 23<sup>rd</sup> overall spot was a bit of a reach for
a player that most considered to be a sandwich-round or 2<sup>nd</sup> round
type of talent. However, the Cardinals
also selected Texas A&M’s Michael Wacha, considered to be a difficult sign,
in the first round so many believed that St. Louis selected Ramsey as a safe,
affordable option. However, while it was
generally thought that the Cardinals and Ramsey would agree to a deal
well-below the assigned slot value for the 23<sup>rd</sup> overall pick ($1.775
million), Baseball America’s Jim Callis reported that the two sides agreed to
terms on a bonus worth around $1.6 million.
As a college senior, Ramsey had little leverage in the contract
negotiations, so some people may wonder why St. Louis offered so much money for
a player that most considered to be a reach.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On MLB Network’s coverage of the draft
a few weeks ago, Peter Gammons mentioned that Ramsey is an “area scout”,
explaining that while Ramsey’s pure physical tools won’t jump off the board,
people that are able to see him play consistently (like area scouts) will
recognize that he is a legitimate prospect.
I had the pleasure of watching Ramsey play many games this season for
Florida State, and after seeing him day in and day out I truly think that he is
a first-round type of talent. It
appears as if the St. Louis Cardinals brass and scouting/development team
similarly value Ramsey, which is why they were willing to take him earlier than
projected and still offer a bonus within spitting distance of the assigned
value.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(Too) Much was made of Ramsey’s makeup
and leadership qualities on MLB Network’s draft coverage, and while he does
appear to be a tremendous person with an exceptional work ethic and dedication
to the game, I think that many of his physical attributes were overlooked. Ramsey is not a physically imposing figure by
any stretch of the imagination, as he is listed at 6’0 and 190 pounds, but is
probably closer to 5’10” or 5’11”. He
does not possess great speed, but throughout the season he consistently clocked
4.0 or 4.1 times from home to first, which generally profiles as plus (60)
speed on the scouting scale. However,
given Ramsey’s hard-nosed style of play, his “true” speed is probably
solid-average (55). Defensively, Ramsey
features a strong and accurate arm. In
2011, as a junior, Ramsey played right field and finished the season with three
outfield assists. This past season
Ramsey moved over to center field, and he finished the season with four
assists. While it can be problematic to
assign a judge a player’s defensive capabilities based off of statistics or
just a couple of games, I am confident in assigning Ramsey a solid-average (55)
to average (50) arm. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ramsey, like many Florida State
Seminoles, is extremely patient and confident at the plate. He has shown a propensity to work deep into
counts and is comfortable hitting behind in the count, if necessary. Furthermore, Ramsey showed the ability to
make in-game and in-AB adjustments while dealing with the comparatively wide
and inconsistent NCAA strike zone. He
likes to let the ball get deep on him and uses the entire field effectively, as
he peppered the left-center field gap throughout the year. However, he also features strong, quick
wrists and has flashed the ability to turn on inside pitches and handle
solid-average and plus velocity.
However, the only real question that I have with Ramsey is his ability
to handle left-handed velocity. Many LHP
with plus velocity are picked high in the MLB draft out of high school and do
not step foot on a college campus, and I cannot remember Ramsey hitting against
many left-handed pitchers with 92 MPH+ velocity. Furthermore, Ramsey appeared to be a bit susceptible
to velocity (from RHP and LHP) right underneath his hands, which will be
something that he will have to adjust to in order to progress through the minor
leagues. With all of that being said,
most, if not all, players struggle with handling plus velocity from same-sided
pitchers, so at this point it does not seem to be much of a concern. Overall, Ramsey had an extremely productive
college career, and I think that he has the physical skills, coordination, and
approach to be an average (50; .270) to plus (60; .300) hitter at the MLB level
if he reaches his ceiling. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As I mentioned earlier, Ramsey is
not a physically imposing figure, but he is athletic, possesses a strong core,
and is able to create some torque with his swing mechanics. He will never be a guy that projects to hit
30+ homeruns at the major league level, but Ramsey did show the ability a
charge into the ball after the well-documented bat changes that the NCAA
implemented, as he hit 10 homers as a junior in 2011 and 13 this past season. Ramsey also had a solid showing in the Cape
Cod League in the Summer of 2011, hitting an impressive nine home runs in 131
AB using wood bats against some of the top college pitching. Regardless, Ramsey still appears to be a more
a gap-to-gap, doubles-type hitter that will pepper in home runs. As a result, Ramsey’s power projects to be “below
average” (40 grade) to “fringe-average” (45-50 grade) meaning that he should be
expected (if he reaches his ceiling) to hit between 14 and 25 homeruns in a
full season’s worth of at-bats.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Therefore, Ramsey’s value at the
major-league level will be heavily reliant on his ability to continue playing
center field. The requirements of a
corner outfielder’s bat are far more taxing than that of a center fielder, as
the typical right/left fielder is generally expected to provide significant
power to the lineup. Given Ramsey’s
relatively “limited” power projection, it is imperative that he sticks in CF in
order to consistently contribute at a high-level in the majors. Defense is hard to read because a position
player may not get many opportunities to field balls in play. Luckily, I was able to watch Ramsey play
throughout the year, so I feel that I was able to get a decent feel for his
abilities. I do think that he be serviceable
in center field. Ramsey has solid
instincts a quick first step, makes quick reads, and while he is not a burner,
his solid-average speed is good enough to help him get to balls in the
gap. In a few years, Ramsey be forced to
change positions, but I asked a scout for the Seattle Mariners what he thought
about Ramsey’s defensive prospects and he said that he liked what he saw from
him, so it appears as if Ramsey may be able to patrol CF for the near future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Overall, I was extremely pleased to
see James Ramsey get picked in the first round, and even more pleased to see
that the Cardinals value his play so highly.
While he may not be a tools freak and does not feature the upside of
some of the other first-round picks, I still believe he is a first round talent
that will contribute at the major league level, which is something that cannot
be said for many other former, current, and future prospects.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-19656096337391269922012-05-10T08:19:00.003-07:002012-05-10T08:19:53.842-07:005/6/12 and 5/7/12: Bryan Evans, Jake Smolinski, Kyle Jensen, and others Chase the Dream<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I finished yesterday’s post
discussing Diamondbacks LHP prospect Tyler Skaggs. His counterpart on Monday
afternoon’s start was <a href="file:///C:/Users/Public/Documents/3Unassisted/%E2%80%A2%09http:/www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543141">RHP
Bryan Evans</a>. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><i><u>Bryan Evans</u></i></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This was the third time
that I have been able to see Evans pitch, as I had seen him pitch twice last
year (once against Tampa Bay Ray prospect Jesus Colome and once against Trevor
Bauer).</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here is what I had to say about
Evans’ first start last season:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Colome's counterpart on Wednesday night was
Bryan Evans, a 14th round draft pick out of UC-Davis in 2008.
Evans, 24, has spent the better part of the past two years in Florida
State League and the Midwest League and is probably not projected to be a true
prospect. His minor-league K/IP
statistics are not all that impressive and his arsenal is not made up of
typical swing-and-miss type stuff.
However, I came away liking what I saw from Evans, even though there
have been thousands of pitchers with similar stuff that have never sniffed the
big leagues. Evans' delivery is a bit
complicated and it appears as if when he releases the ball he is throwing
across his body or is facing the hitter at an extreme angle. His arm angle is over-the-top and the best
comparison that I can give is kind of a hybrid mix between Josh Collmenter and
Jered Weaver. The scouts were clearly
there to see Colome (even though Evans was also just recently called up to AA),
as most put their radar guns down when Evans was on the mound. However, I was able to see from those that
did keep the guns out that Evans' fastball sat at 85-90 mph, his slider clocked
in around 81 mph, and his curve/slurve measured in at 74 mph. I did not get a good read on what the
velocity was on his changeup, but the pitch did feature some arm-side run
(although he did telegraph a few by slowing down his windup considerably). His fastball also featured some good arm-side
run and he was able to sneak some in on right handed hitters. Evans' pure stuff was nowhere near as dominant
as Colome's but his line was a bit better for the night as he went 6+ innings
(walked first two guys in 7th) for the win, giving up 6 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, while
striking out 6. Evans' future is nowhere
near as bright as Colome's given his age and lack of velo, but his windup and
pitching mechanics were deceptive enough to hitters that he was able to strike
out 6 in 6 innings of work. Given that
this was only his 3rd appearance and 1st start in AA, it remains to be seen if
hitters will be able to adjust and exploit Evans' pedestrian stuff or if his
pitchability and deception will allow him to succeed and climb the ladder of
professional baseball.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He struggled in his second start
of 2011, against Trevor Bauer. Here is
what I wrote about that specific outing:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A player that I profiled previously, RHP<a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543141"> Bryan
Evans</a> started opposite Trevor Bauer but had a very poor evening, as he
struggled to find the strike zone (walked opposing SP Bauer twice) and his line
read 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 4 K. Evans’ was not very consistent with any of
his pitches, but especially his slider which seemed to be much more flat than
the previous outing that I was able to see (IMO his curveball still seems to be
the sharper breaking ball and a better option than the slider, even though he
throws it only around 74-75 mph). His FB velocity was still between
85-91 mph but again his command was sharp enough and he paid it, after being
pulled early.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Evans finished 2011 in AA Jacksonville after dominating
High-A (as a 24-year old) and posted solid numbers. However, his strikeout rate was not
impressive (only 27 in 37.1 IP or 6.5/9 IP).
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After seeing him this past Monday, I am not convinced that
Evans can pitch in the big leagues. The first time I saw him, I noted that
Evans’ delivery was deceptive. However,
Evans’ pure stuff leaves much to be desired so his command and sequencing need
to be very sharp for him succeed as he climbs the ladder. Recently, his command has been very mediocre,
and he has actually walked more batters (24) than he has struck out (21) in
just 30.2 innings of work. Pitchers like
Evans cannot succeed consistently with spotty command. I had originally believed that Evans could
turn into a back of the rotation innings eater if everything broke right, but
after seeing him a few more times I think that if Evans is to ever make a MLB
roster it will be as a middle-reliever or swingman. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u><i><b>Jake Smolinski</b></i></u></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last year I also got the chance to see Jake Smolinski (JAX) play
a handful of times and here is what I had to say about him:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa389679&position=3B/OF">Jake
Smolinski</a>, a 22 year old OF for the Jacksonville Suns was drafted in the
2nd round out of high school by the Washington Nationals. He was traded
to the Florida Marlins organization with Emilio Bonifacio for Scott Olsen and
Josh Willingham. Smolinski is a converted 2B/3B that flashed some decent
athleticism in the games that I attended. He hit towards the bottom of
the order, which is surprising for such a high draft pick, but nonetheless he
put together quality ABs and was 2-3 off of Chris Archer. This is Smolinski's
first season in AA and he has played pretty well so far and has been able to
draw more walks, even though he only is hitting .259. Overall, Smolinski
looked like a pretty solid player and profiles as a 4th OF or maybe a
2nd-division starter type if he remains as a corner OF.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Smolinski finished 2011 in AA Jacksonville hitting. 245/.342/.364
with 26 2B and 7 HR. The first thing that I noticed this season was that
Smolinski appeared to have filled out a little bit more. The media guide listed him at 6’0, 205 and he
clearly looked the part, with an athletic frame. Now 23
years old, Smolinski is hitting .325/.440/.482 with 9 2B (and 0 HR) through 22
games with Jacksonville. Smolinski’s
value would be much greater if he could handle center field, but I clocked him
at a slightly-below average 4.4 and 4.5 to first base so he is going to be
limited to a corner spot. His lack of raw
power has to be slightly disconcerting, but he has a level-swing plane and has
proved that he has solid gap-to-gap power.
At this point, Smolinski appears to a traditional tweener—not enough
power to handle a corner and not athletic/fast enough to play in center
field. However, with his ability to get
on base and put the bat on the ball he may still end up as a 2<sup>nd</sup>-division
starter.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><i><u>Kyle Jensen</u></i></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last season I also saw Kyle Jensen play a couple of games in
right field for the Jacksonville Suns.
Here is what I had to say about him:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Suns’ RF Kyle Jensen was pretty impressive in both games that I saw
(again limited sample size) as he showed the ability to barrel balls the other
way (off Jarrod Parker) and flashed nice range in right field.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa501667&position=DH/OF#standard">Jensen</a>,
a left-handed hitter clocked a 4.8 to 1<sup>st</sup> base and looked
below-average out in right field on Sunday night. Suffice it to say, I was a bit off base in my
observations last season. As a 23-year
old Jensen crushed Hi-A pitching in Jupiter and his numbers fell off a bit when
promoted to Jacksonville towards the end on 2011. Thus far he is struggling a bit at the
plate. I did not get to see Jensen play
on Monday, but he (like many other Suns hitters) was overmatched by Trevor
Bauer. He has some power in the bat, but
he is limited defensively and turns 24 on May 20th so he does not profile as a
true prospect. He may have some value as
a bat-only 4<sup>th</sup> OF/1B/DH type.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><i><u>Sutil and Gilbert</u></i></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A couple of Mobile Bay Bears caught my eye initially, but I
quickly found out that they were journeymen chasing the dream. <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=467078">SS
Wladimir Sutil</a> made a solid play to his left and flashed a strong arm, but
the Venezuelan is 27 years old and is playing in AA for a fifth consecutive season. <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=446233">CF
Archie Gilbert</a> was picked off by Jose Alvarez in Sunday night’s game, which
led me to believe that Gilbert was a young player learning the nuances of
professional baseball. However, Gilbert is
actually a soon to be 29-year old, so even though he showed a short, compact
swing and hit 12 HRs last year in the Eastern League, he is not a true prospect
either. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u><i><b>Matt Davidson</b></i></u></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, <a href="http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=571602">Mobile
3B Matt Davidson</a> caught my eye as well. I did not do any research going into the
series so I had not heard of Davidson before Sunday, but his solid numbers and role
as cleanup hitter piqued my interest. He
has a “bad” body with some baby fat and looked like he might have to move to 1<sup>st</sup>
base in the future if he did not get into better shape. Regardless, I liked his approach at the
plate, and statistics show that he has been able to work more walks. Furthermore,
Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks recently <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16843">wrote
about Davidson</a> and noted that his footwork (defensively) and offensive
approach have improved since his inaugural season. Davidson was a supplemental first-round pick
in 2009 and a .310/.433/.534 slash line as a 21 year old in AA shows that
Davidson can hit. I hope to see Davidson
play again this season for a further and more complete evaluation.</span><o:p></o:p></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-82302183402944576072012-05-09T14:14:00.001-07:002012-05-09T14:14:11.362-07:005/6/12 and 5/7/12: Trevor Bauer, Jose Alvarez, Tyler Skaggs<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Sunday 5/6/12
and Monday 5/7/12 I attended two games of a five game series between the Mobile
Bay Bears and the Jacksonville Suns. I’ve
covered the Suns and Bay Bears at length in some of my posts from <a href="http://3unassisted.blogspot.com/2011/08/scouting-in-southern-league-mobile-v.html">last
year</a>. Also, more <a href="http://3unassisted.blogspot.com/2012/05/3update-512012.html">recently I’ve
posted a few columns</a> revisiting some of my past observations for prospects
such as <a href="file:///C:/Users/Public/Documents/3Unassisted/%E2%80%A2%09http:/www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=545333">Trevor
Bauer</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0.25in;">
<i><u><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Trevor Bauer (MOB)</span></b></u></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I was fortunate
enough to see Bauer again in Sunday’s contest.
In my 3Update on 5/1/12 I noted that there was still room for
improvement as the right-hander had been struggling to pitch deep into games
with a propensity for walks and high pitch counts. Regardless, I still loved the pure stuff that
Bauer brought to the table and believed that he would be able to pitch for the
Diamondbacks in the near future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">His start on
5/6/12 was solid but I believe that his final line (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 5 K)
was more impressive than the outing itself.
Although he only gave up one hit, Bauer struggled more than I thought he
would in the first and second innings.
He consistently missed up in the zone with his fastball and had a couple
of breaking balls hang over the middle of the plate that more polished hitters
would have taken advantage of.
Furthermore, the fastball velocity was down significantly as it ranged
from 87-91 mph. However, as the evening
progressed Bauer got into a bit of a groove, and from the third inning until
his exit in the seventh inning his fastball would sit in the 89-93 mph
range. On a couple different occasions
Bauer was able to reach back and hit 95.
He did not utilize the slider much except for a few sequences in the
middle innings, but the pitch ranged from 78-85 mph and featured late, sharp
10-4 break that has the ability to miss bats.
Bauer’s changeup was between 80-83 mph with fade and arm-side run. Like the slider, Bauer’s changeup was not
utilized too much, so it was hard to get an accurate read on the potential of
the pitch, but I think that he has developed a better feel for the pitch since
I saw him in August of 2011. Bauer was
more liberal with the use of his curveball, which can be an absolutely
devastating pitch. The curveball sat
between 73-77 mph, and while he threw a few hangers, the ones that were thrown
harder (75-77 mph) were sharp and flashed as a plus-plus pitch at the MLB
level. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, Bauer
still struggled with his command, issuing 5 walks and going to many 2-3 ball
counts throughout the outing. While I
don’t think that he had his best fastball (stuff and command-wise), if Bauer
was able to command his secondary pitches (especially the CRV) more effectively
I don’t think he would have been touched.
Some of this has to do with the limitations of the Suns’ lineup, but
Bauer’s curveball was almost too good at times—he was not getting hitters to
chase the pitch and was forced to revert to his fastball (which they were
sitting on). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There was definitely room for improvement, but I still liked what I saw from Bauer. I got the
feeling that Bauer was actually toying with JAX and was tinkering with things
to try and see what could work or be effective.
There is a risk-reward with such an approach, as some pitchers can get
too entrapped in this framework and forget about what got them there in the
first place. Hopefully, Bauer is able to
further refine his command and efficiency because I think he still has the ceiling
of an ace.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0.25in;">
<b><i><u><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jose Alvarez (JAX)</span></u></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bauer’s
counterpart for the Jacksonville Suns was LHP <a href="file:///C:/Users/Public/Documents/3Unassisted/%E2%80%A2%09http:/www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501625">Jose
Alvarez</a>. The first thing that I
noticed about Alvarez was his height, or lack thereof. Alvarez is listed as 5’10, but I would not be
surprised if he is 5’9 or perhaps 5’8.
Alvarez was extremely aggressive and pounded the strike zone with
predominately fastballs with some arm-side run that sat between 87 and 91
mph. Alvarez did not throw many
off-speed pitches, but his go-to secondary pitch was a 81-85 slider that he
used as a cutter against RH batters. In
my opinion, Alvarez did not utilize this pitch enough, and while it is not a
plus pitch by any stretch of the imagination I think that it has the potential
to be an average (50) pitch and is currently a 40-45 offering. Alvarez threw his changeup even less
frequently than the slider, so it was hard to get an accurate reading, but the
pitch sat between 78-80 mph and did not appear to be a quality third
pitch. Alvarez, celebrating his 23<sup>rd</sup>
birthday on 5/6/12, caught the loss ().
I believe that Alvarez’s downfall was his inability and/or unwillingness
to throw his secondary pitches more frequently.
I like Alvarez’s mentality and inclination to challenge hitters, but he
does not feature an above-average fastball and his short stature does not allow
him to throw from a downhill plane. With
an average fastball and average slider/cutter hybrid I can see Alvarez as a MLB
middle reliever down the road.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.25in; text-align: center; text-indent: 0.25in;">
<b><i><u><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Tyler Skaggs (MOB)</span></u></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Monday,
5/7/12, I was able to catch a few innings of the second game of the Mobile-Jacksonville
series. I went purely to watch <a href="file:///C:/Users/Public/Documents/3Unassisted/%E2%80%A2%09http:/www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572140">Tyler
Skaggs</a> of Mobile pitch, as I have read many glowing reports about the young
left-hander. Skaggs pitched very well (7
IP, 5 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 7 K) and, like teammate Trevor Bauer, was able to
stymie a weak and overmatched Jacksonville lineup. Skaggs threw his fastball between 90 and 93
mph, and while he opened up early and missed high and away with the pitch
occasionally, his command of the pitch was solid. Skaggs slowed his arm speed a bit when he
delivered his changeup, but the pitch, which sat around 80-82 mph, featured
some fade and induced a couple of weak swings.
Currently, I would guess that the pitch is a fringe-average (45-50) MLB
offering with the chance to be average to solid-average (50-55) with further
refinement. Finally, Skaggs’ curveball
is a monster of a pitch. Kevin Goldstein
has noted that it is regarded as the best in the system, but I thought that
such an assertion had to be hyperbole given Bauer’s hook. However, on Monday I became a believer as the
Skaggs’ curveball is a sharp 12-6’er and current 70-pitch that completely falls
off of the table when thrown with a little more velocity (77 mph). Skaggs’ slower (74-75 mph) curveballs were
still very sharp and effective, but he did leave a few up in the zone as his
arm had a tendency to drag behind his body before release. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .25in; text-indent: .25in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I did not watch
Skaggs’ entire seven inning performance, but I left pretty impressed with what I
had seen (stuffwise), although a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/arizona-diamondbacks-pitching-prospect-tyler-skaggs-fangraphs-scouting-report-video/">recent
article</a> by Fangraphs’ and Scouting the Sally’s Mike Newman really resonated. Newman discussed his reservations with Skaggs’
propensity to throw his curveball as not many current MLB pitchers utilize
their curveball more than 30% of the time.
Skaggs did throw his curveball quite a lot on Monday (and one cannot
blame him given the effectiveness of the pitch). However, Skaggs needs to make sure that he
does not fall in love with the pitch.
Minor-leaguers may not be able to handle his curve, but major-league
bats may be able to exploit it if he throws it too often. Skaggs is currently 20 years old and more
than holding his own in AA, so one cannot be too critical of his performance
thus far, but it will definitely be interesting to see how Skaggs progresses in
the years to come. </span><o:p></o:p></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-10703073320607879192012-05-01T11:51:00.001-07:002012-05-01T11:51:13.428-07:003Update 5/1/2012<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">In my last entry I re-examined some of my initial observations
from 2011 on a number of players in the Tampa Bay Rays system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This time I will re-examine some of my scouting notes from
various other prospects that I was able to see in game action.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1)</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Jarrod Parker (RHP)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I was fortunate enough to watch Parker pitch against the
Jacksonville Suns last August.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Parker
was considered a top prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks system and I very
excited about the opportunity to see Parker in action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here is what I wrote last year: <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: center;">
<strong><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Parker’s fastball sat at 90-94 throughout his six innings of work and
hit 95 on a couple different occasions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>His best secondary pitch was his slider which sat around 83-84 mph and
featured a sharp, two-plane break.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Parker was able to throw the slider very effectively to lefties as he
was able to both backdoor it and bury underneath their hands and at their feet.<o:p></o:p></span></i></strong></div>
<strong>
</strong><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: center;">
<strong><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Parker looked to have a very smooth and athletic throwing motion as he
was able to consistently repeat his high-3/4 delivery from both the full windup
and the stretch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Parker scattered 3
hits, worked around 3 BB’s effectively, and was able to finish six innings
without allowing a run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Overall,
Parker’s outing was not overly impressive but successful and solid in its own
right.<o:p></o:p></span></i></strong></div>
<br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: center;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></i><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Parker finished 2011 with an 11-8 record, 3.79 ERA, and 112
K, and 112 H in 130.2 IP for AA Mobile. He also made his major league debut and
pitched well (5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the offseason, Parker was part of a package of prospects that were
shipped to Oakland for established starter Trevor Cahill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This season, Parker has made one spot start
in Oakland, going 6.1 innings and allowing seven hits, one walk, one earned
run, and striking out five.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He has also
been stellar in four starts for AAA for Sacramento (1-0, 20.2 IP, 22 H, 21 K,
2.18 ERA).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some people have voiced their
concerns about Parker’s ability to handle a heavy workload (~180 or 200 IP)
because he missed all of 2010 recovering from Tommy John surgery and his
velocity has not returned to the 96-98 MPH range.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, given the success that Parker has
had over the last season and change, and from what I was able to see in my
limited time with him, I think that Parker will become a successful major
league pitcher.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While he will
undoubtedly encounter some struggles once he lands at the MLB level for an
entire season, I think that Parker has the arsenal and ability to establish
himself as a solid number two starter.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2)</span><span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Trevor Bauer (RHP)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Here is what I wrote about Bauer last year:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><strong>Although Jarrod Parker is widely considered a top prospect in all of
baseball, I was more excited to watch Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in
the 2011 MLB First-Year Player Draft, pitch as it was his second career start
in AA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There has been much written about
Bauer’s dominating career at UCLA, his slight frame and unique delivery, and
the possibility of him pitching in the big leagues sometime this year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scouts and many people within the blogosphere
have been wondering whether or not Bauer should even be pitching at this point because
of his heavy workload (both innings and pitch count wise) this past
spring/summer at UCLA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bauer’s outing
was not as consistent as Parker’s was, yet his pure stuff seemed more
impressive. Bauer’s windup and delivery
often draw comparisons to Tim Lincecum’s and it does seem similar in some
regards, but some of this comparison is also undoubtedly due to the fact that
both are smaller in stature yet have excellent fastball velocity and sharp
breaking pitches.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bauer’s delivery is a
bit complicated but he manages it well and is able to repeat his delivery at a
pretty consistent rate. However, there were times within this specific outing
that it looked like he was laboring and fighting against himself (but this
could be due to a number of other factors—fatigue, loss of concentration,
etc.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bauer’s fastball ranged from 91-95
mph and featured some arm-side run to it. He flashed a sharp slider and 12-6 curveball
that was absolutely devastating at times and completely fell off the
table.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His changeup featured some
arm-side run and sink to it but his command of the pitch was spotty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As I mentioned earlier, Bauer walked three in
his five innings and went to two and three ball counts many times so it was
clear that Bauer was not working with his best stuff or command.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, he still managed to strike out eight
batters and shatter a few bats in only five innings of work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The homerun that he allowed was to Kyle
Skipworth, a struggling prospect of which I have touched upon before, on a
changeup that appeared to be a case of poor location as it was belt high and
inside to the left-hander.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All in all,
Bauer’s performance was very impressive and it is easy to see why there have
been talks about him pitching in the majors later this year (although whether
he should or shouldn’t is still up for debate).<o:p></o:p></strong></span></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></i><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bauer only started seven games in the minor leagues last
year (3 in High-A Visalia and 4 in AA Mobile) and finished with a combined line
of 1-2, 5.96 ERA, 25.2 IP, 27 H, 12 BB, 43 K.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Many minor league statistics can be misleading, so the ERA and W-L
should not be taken as indicators of Bauer’s true talent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, his ability to miss bats (43 K in
25.2 IP) shows that Bauer’s pure stuff is excellent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Coming into the 2012 season there was a
significant amount of buzz regarding Bauer’s assignment out of spring training—some
believed he would be assigned to the big club.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, Bauer was assigned to AA Mobile and has performed well thus
far.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Through 5 starts, Bauer is 5-0 with
a 1.26 ERA and 37 K in 28.2 IP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While
his W-L and ERA have improved significantly, there is still much room for
improvement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bauer has averaged less
than 6 IP/start and while some of this may be by design to limit his workload
before he is eventually called up, there is something to be said for a starter
that cannot eat innings and pitch efficiently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>His command has been problematic as well as he has surrendered 17 BB in
his 28.2 IP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While this is not an
astounding number of free passes, major-league quality hitters will be able to
lay off certain off-speed offerings that AA hitters cannot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although I only saw Bauer pitch once, it was
easy to see that his pure stuff was outstanding and major-league quality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He struggled to locate all of his pitches
consistently in that start against the Jacksonville Suns and has still had some
issues thus far in 2012.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, I have
no doubts that Bauer will eventually work out the kinks and pitch for the
Diamondbacks in the near future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If he
is able to refine his command and adjust to major-league quality hitters, Bauer
will be an ace.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;">3/4) AJ Pollock (CF) and Ryan
Wheeler (3B)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Because I was so focused on Parker and Bauer, I had limited
notes on AJ Pollock and Ryan Wheeler, but here is what I had to say:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: center;">
<strong><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Mobile’s lineup had two position players that particularly intrigued
me, CF AJ Pollock and 3B Ryan Wheeler.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Both Pollock and Wheeler were high draft picks out of their respective
colleges, Notre Dame and Loyola Marymount (CA).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Pollock flashed good speed throughout both of the games that I was able
to attend, beating out a groundball to the 2nd baseman.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He also flashed good range in CF and appeared
to make good reads off the bat after the ball was put into play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ryan Wheeler, who I alluded to earlier when
writing about Ramon Benjamin has had a solid year thus far and flashed his hit
tool in both games that I attended.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Wheeler has a nice level swing plane and appeared to be very comfortable
in the batter’s box as he was able to consistently repeat his swing mechanics
and track balls out of the pitchers hand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The one exception to this was his at-bat against Benjamin (also the only
lefty that I remember seeing him face) where he looked all out of sorts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was hard to get a read on his work in the
field because of limited opportunities, but he did not look to be very fluid
when he allowed a foul pop-up to drop that probably should have been
caught.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would be foolish to draw any
conclusions from one single play (and I’m sure numerous scouts could provide
much more insight on Wheeler’s proficiency in the field), but it will be
interesting to see how Wheeler develops in the field and if he can and will
stick at 3B.<o:p></o:p></span></i></strong></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Pollock finished 2011 in Mobile and was very successful, hitting
.307 with 41 2B, 5 3B, and 8 HR to go along with 36 SB. Clearly, Pollock, as
the 17<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup> overall pick in the 2009 draft out of Notre Dame, was able
to handle AA ball. His speed and defense are his biggest assets and provide the
most value for his club.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He started 2012
at AAA Reno and was hitting .340 with 6 2B through 53 AB before being called up
to Arizona when Chris Young was injured.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>He has struggled since being called up, going 3-22, but such struggles
are to be expected from a young player being forced into big-league action so
early in the season.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pollock will be
sent back down to AAA once Young is healthy again, but Pollock is likely to see
some more action later this year and will probably be a September call-up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While he doesn’t have much power and does not
walk much (only 44 BB in 550 AB in 2011) Pollock is a valuable asset but he
does not possess an elite ceiling and probably projects to be an average MLB CF
at best.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Wheeler also finished 2011 in Mobile, hitting .294 (.358
OBP) with 30 2B and 16 HR in 480 AB.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Kevin Goldstein did not have Wheeler rated in his Top 20 for the
Diamondbacks, but minorleagueball.com’s John Sickels had Wheeler listed as #14.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Last year, as one can see in my notes, I
expressed my reservations about Wheeler’s ability field but was unwilling to commit
to throwing a grade or making a full evaluation on it given the lack of opportunities
Wheeler had.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In his rankings Sickels notes
that Wheeler’s glove is “mediocre.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wheeler
has gotten off to a hot start in 2012 in AAA Reno as he is hitting .316 with 5 2B
and 4 HR in 95 AB.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It appears as if
Wheeler, like Pollock, has established himself as a polished yet unspectacular
commodity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While Pollock lacks the power
and patience, Wheeler is limited defensively and may not be a reliable everyday
third baseman.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If that is the case,
Wheeler will probably be forced into becoming a part-time/bench option which is
still an important if not gaudy role for a major league club to fill. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<br /></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-69503470905538831682012-04-21T19:29:00.003-07:002012-04-21T19:29:56.466-07:003Update<br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With graduate school and numerous different
work obligations it has been difficult for me to keep up with a lot of other
things, including this blog. I’ve been
trying pretty hard to include new notes and observations on many college
players that I’ve been fortunate enough to see the last couple of months, but
it has not worked out as well as I had hoped.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Within the next few weeks I will
have significantly more free time as spring semester winds down and there is a
dead period before summer school starts back up. I am going to include more first-hand
observations from various FSU games, including the FSU-Miami series (You can
find my write up of Game 1 <a href="http://www.collegebaseballinsider.com/12atb/CBILive420FSUMiami.html">here</a>,
for CollegeBaseballInsider, a website which I currently intern for). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, in this entry I am going
to focus on looking back on a handful of minor-league players that I observed
last year and checking in to see how they are performing today. Furthermore, this exercise should help me to
recognize what characteristics I need to improve on in order to further
cultivate my scouting skills. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One of the players that caught my
eye last year was Tim Beckham, who I saw while playing for AA Montgomery. Here is what I wrote upon seeing Beckham
playing against the Jacksonville Suns last season: </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"> <i>Kevin
Goldstein rated Beckham as the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13013">Rays' 18th
best prospect coming into the season</a> and John Sickels gave Beckham a <a href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/25/2291484/tampa-bay-rays-2011-top-20-pre-season-prospects-in-review">C+
grade before opening day</a>. By both accounts Beckham's 2011 was going
to largely be a make-or-break type of year. So far this season his numbers have
been <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa454347&position=SS">pretty
solid</a> and after watching him for three games I can confidently say
that he was the best position player on the field for either team.
Beckham has quick wrists at the plate and shows some pop in his bat.
He looked to have a solid approach and was quick to exploit pitchers who
left balls over the plate or attacked him early in the count with fastballs.
He flashed good opposite field power as he took the first pitch that he
saw from Bryan Evans (a fastball) to the right center field gap for a double.
He also hit a number of other balls hard throughout the series that
resulted in outs. Some of Beckham's detractors point to his fielding and after
seeing him firsthand they do have a point. Beckham showed solid range on
a couple of plays to his left, but he also committed one throwing error and was
bailed out by his first baseman on another. Both plays were relatively
routine groundballs, but Beckham sat back and gave himself an in between hop.
His rhythm was thrown off which altered his throws. It appears as
if he has the athleticism to play shortstop, but he needs to make the plays
easier for himself and keep his concentration in the field if he is to stay at
the position (there is some thought that he will eventually have to move to 3rd
base).<o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And an update from a couple of weeks later, as Beckham had
been promoted to AAA:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Montgomery SS <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542921">Tim
Beckham</a> who was called up to AAA Durham over a week ago has continued
to hit well at the next level as he has hit .291 with 3 HR in 55 AB.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Beckham finished the 2011 season at AAA Durham, playing 24
games for the Bulls, and producing a .255/.282/.462 slash. He hit .275/.339/.395 in 107 games at
Montgomery. This season Beckham started
the year off at AAA Durham, but has gotten off to a slow start. Through 13 games Beckham is hitting
.204/.290/.278 without any home runs.
Unfortunately, milb.com and fangraphs.com do not list fielding
statistics (although they are misleading anyway) so I cannot truly weigh in on
his defense this year. Regardless,
Beckham has clearly gotten to a rough start offensively, but it is extremely
early into the 2012 campaign, and I believe that Beckham will play in the big
leagues, probably as soon as this season.
He will not end up being a superstar or All-Star like everybody hopes
that former No. 1 picks are, but I think that he can be a 50 hitter (.250-.270)
with gap power and run into 10-15 home runs if given the opportunity to play an
entire season. I also believe that
Beckham can stick at shortstop, although his defense at the position may only
ever be average at best.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Another Montgomery Biscuit that I wrote about, Kyeong Kang has
also been struggling. He only has 28 at
bats through 11 games thus far and has been splitting time with others in the
outfield. I’m not sure if Kang also has
been dealing with injuries but his performance in 2012 has not been stellar. Here is what I wrote about him last year:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kyeong Kang (LF/RF) for Montgomery, age
23, was a 15th round draft pick out of a Georgia high school. The native South
Korean was not listed in the Top 20 pre-season lists of TB prospects by
Goldstein or Sickels, but he did impress me throughout the series. Kang played
for the World Team in the 2009 Futures Game, but had a poor 2010 season in the
High-A Florida State League for Charlotte.
2011 has been a bounce back year for Kang as he currently sports an OBP
of .395. Again, minor-league statistics
can sometimes be misleading and do not always tell the whole story, but I came
away thinking that Kang may have a bright future. He showed a good approach at the plate, was
able to fight off tough pitches with two strikes, and hit a number of balls
solidly. Kang's wrists were not as quick
as Beckham's and his swing did appear to be a bit long. Kang also has questionable athleticism and
his power numbers are not ideal for a corner outfielder. However, Kang did show off a very strong and
accurate arm as he had two outfield assists in the three games that I was able
to attend. I enjoyed watching Kang play
and think that he could profile as a second division starter or a 4th OF type
at the MLB level.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kang cooled down a
bit since I saw him in August, and finished with a slash line of .263/.384/.437
and 11 HR and 14 2B in 316 AB. I did
note that Kang’s swing was a bit long and not as quick as Beckham’s. Similarly, I identified that his athleticism
and power (lack thereof) would limit his future potential as a corner outfielder. Currently Kang has a slash line of
.107/.188/.321 with 2 HR in his 28 AB.
Clearly, Kang is struggling mightily right now, but again, it is early
in the season and he has been splitting time.
However, after taking a look at the roster, I think that Kang should be
in line for more playing time going forward (which leads me to believe he has
been battling injury) as the other outfielders currently listed are Brad Coon
(29 years old), Emeel Salem (27 years old), and Isaias Velasquez (23 years
old). Velasquez is the only other
outfielder with a true potential, so I expect Kang to get plenty of AB going
forward. With that being said, I still
do not think that his ceiling, of a 4<sup>th</sup> OF, has not changed and his
assignment to repeat AA as 24 year-old probably reflects this as well. As we saw with Beckham (and others such as
Alex Torres, Matt Moore, etc.,) the Rays are not shy about having their
prospects compete at AAA before bringing them up so it appears as if they think
that Kang is still at least one year away from big league consideration. He may
eventually be able to sneak his way into a starting job given an injury or with
a second-division type of club, but he does not have the power yet to warrant a
full-time gig. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I also saw Shawn O’Malley
play for the Montgomery Biscuits in their series vs. the Jacksonville Suns.
Here is what I had to say about O’Malley last August:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa326729&position=SS"> Shawn
O'Malley</a> is a 23 year old second baseman for Montgomery that was
drafted in the 5th round out of his high school in Washington state.
O'Malley is a<a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502523">good
athlete</a> as he was first-team all-state as a wide receiver, defensive
back, and kick returner. Like Kang, O'Malley was not listed on Goldstein
or Sickels top prospect lists, and in all honesty he does not warrant a spot on
a top prospect list. O'Malley has very little power (2 career minor
league homeruns in 1678 plate appearances (via FanGraphs) which limits his
value drastically. However, in my mind O'Malley is still a fine player.
He is a switch hitter that shows quick hands from both sides of the plate
and has solid speed. He also had a tendency to work the count well and
provide some quality ABs. O'Malley is athletic and he would provide an
organization more value if he could play SS, but it appeared that he did not
have the necessary skill set to do so. He looked good at second base and
made a very nice play to his right which highlighted his range, but did not
appear to translate well to a move across the diamond. Overall, O'Malley
is a fine, pesky player that is a joy to watch but he
will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to reach the
majors.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">O’Malley finished
2011 in Montgomery and hit .276/.369/.344 with 8 2B, 1 HR, and 24 SB. O’Malley broke spring training with AAA
Durham. Through 11 games O’Malley has 35
AB and is hitting .171/.262/.257 with 1 HR.
Clearly O’Malley, like the other players I’ve covered so far, has
struggled. One could be encouraged that
O’Malley broke camp in AAA, a step up from last year’s assignment, but as I
noted last year “he will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to
reach the majors.” O’Malley does not really profile as an everyday anything
given his lack of power, but he has struggled in the past and overcome
adversity. In 2010 he only hit .181 in
144 AB at Montgomery, but he was able to improve on that by almost .100 points
one year later. If O’Malley is able to
rebound from a poor start as he has done in the past he may have an outside
shot to serve as a utility/reserve player for an MLB club.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While I have been
discussing the progress or lack thereof of past Montgomery position players,
some Biscuit pitchers that I examined are also encountering some early
adversity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First, Alex
Colome. Here is what I wrote about
Colome last August:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Colome was rated as the<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13013"> #6
prospect in the Rays system</a> by Kevin Goldstein, who said that Colome
offers a plus-plus fastball that sits at 93-95 and can touch 97.
Goldstein further wrote that Colome has the potential to be a star-level
rotation piece with plenty of strikeouts. Colome did not disappoint as
he brought tremendous pure stuff to the table.<br />
<br />
Mechanically, Colome throws with a very loose arm action
and he generates a ton of power behind his slight, skinny frame through his
burst off the rubber (For comparison his windup almost had a Pedro
Martinez-like look to it). He had decent enough command of his fastball
throughout the game, although in the middle innings (3rd and 4th) Colome seemed
to lose some of his command and had to battle through some long at-bats.
Like Kevin Goldstein wrote, Colome's fastball did indeed sit at 93-95 and
hit 96 on a number of occasions. His curveball was sharp after using
mainly his fastball in the first inning he put away two hitters with his
power-curve (76-78 mph) in the second inning. His changeup had some good
armside run to it and usually clocked in around 85-87 mph, but he did not throw
it all that much (although throw a great one to Kyle Skipworth in the 6th
inning). His slider/cutter usually registered at 87-90 mph, although he
did throw a few slower (83-85 mph). The pitch was particularly effective to
lefties down and in. Overall, Colome had a pretty solid evening as he
pitched into the 7th inning, going 6.1 allowing 4 hits, 4 BB, 2 ER, and
striking out 6. Like I said, Colome looked a bit lost in the 3rd and 4th
innings and showed visible signs of frustration on the mound, but he was able
to put it together and put together a solid 4th and 5th inning. Colome
will undoubtedly need more time on the farm to work on the command of all of
his pitches but his pure stuff does project well and if he continues to develop
he could be a quality starter in the big leagues in a few years.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The above notes were from Colome’s second AA start of the season, as he
started 2011 in the Florida State League.
He finished the season with Montgomery and finished 3-4 with a 4.15 ERA
but only 31 K in 52 IP. His strikeout
rate dropped significantly from A to AA, but the early results from 2012 show
that Colome can still miss bats (and given his fastball velocity and sharp
power curve he should be). Baseball
Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein had Colome rated as the Rays #5 prospect coming
into the year, and although I am very familiar with the entire system I think
that Colome’s potential definitely warrants such a rating. Thus far Colome has made two starts, one good
and one not so good. He is 1-1 with a
5.63 ERA and has stuck out 10 through eight innings of work. Obviously, eight innings through two starts
is not a particularly encouraging statistic, but even the best of the best have
a bad outing. Colome is 24, which is a
bit older for a true top-level prospect, but as he grows more accustomed to AA
talent he should be able to harness his ability and be successful. Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein said of
Colome in his Rays preview: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“<b>The Bad</b>: Colome's delivery is far from easy, and he has
problems throwing strikes. His secondary pitches come and go, and his breaking
ball can get slurvy. A large number of scouts think he projects far better in a
late-innings bullpen role.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I think that Colome could be very effective as a reliever and be ready
as soon as this year if the Rays felt that this route was necessary. However, I still think that with another full
season of refinement Colome projects to be a solid mid-rotation option for a
major league team.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I also got the chance to watch SP Chris Archer pitch against the Suns. Here are my notes from last year:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Game 2 of the
series featured a prominent starting pitching prospect, as Chris Archer of
Montgomery took the mound. Archer, 22, was a part of the package sent to the
Rays by the Chicago Cubs this past offseason in the Matt Garza trade. Archer was rated as the #4 prospect by Kevin
Goldstein and #5 prospect by Minor League Ball's John Sickels in the
pre-season. Thus far Archer has had a
decent 2011 campaign in AA as he has 100 K in 113.1 IP, but has also allowed 65
BB and has 14 WP (via FanGraphs). BP's
Goldstein noted before the season that Archer's development would depend on his
command as he has always had trouble throwing strikes consistency. Again, in Game 2 I sat down the right field
line and the radar gun was not functioning so it was impossible to get an
accurate reading of Archer's velocity, but Goldstein wrote that Archer sits
around 92-94 and that his power slider can be un-hittable when its on. Archer
was not at the top of his game when I saw him, but he was pretty impressive
nontheless. His fastball overpowered a number of Suns hitters and his slider
definitely had a sharp bite on it.
However, his outing was typical of the reports as he did struggle some
with command allowing 4 BB in 6 IP (although the umpire's strike zone was tight
throughout the game).<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Archer was promoted to AAA Durham late in the season and made two
starts there. He finished 2011 with a
combined line of 9-7, 4.09 ERA, and 130 K in 147 IP. However, Archer also walked 86 batters, and I
witnessed Archer’s command issues firsthand.
This season, Kevin Goldstein rated Archer as the Rays’ #8 prospect and
he noted that Archer’s regressed from his 2010 season. He pitched very well in his two starts at AAA
Durham in 2011, but thus far Archer has run into some early problems. Through 3 starts Archer is 1-2 with a 9.95
ERA and 13 BB in 12.2 IP. The control
issue is something that will definitely be monitored closely by the Rays’ front
office. Again, in the start that I
witnessed last year Archer was overpowering and had a devastating slider. However, unless he is able to regain his
composure and find the strike zone more consistently, Archer will most likely
end up as a late-inning bullpen arm.
While this is not the end of the world, I’m sure that the Rays would
prefer if Archer could develop as a starter.
With an overabundance of starting pitching at the MLB level, and Archer
still only 23 years old, Tampa Bay may be content to wait and see how Archer
develops this season before bringing him up to the show.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A Montgomery relief pitcher that I liked was Marquis Fleming. Here is what I wrote about Fleming:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 10pt;">Archer
was relieved by Marquis Fleming, a 24 year old righty drafted in the 24th round
out of Cal State Stanislaus. Fleming has put up solid stats thus far,
with 90 K in 63.2 innings (via<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></span></i><i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa454927&position=P" style="text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="background: white; color: #7c7c7c;">FanGraphs)</span></a><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span style="text-align: -webkit-auto;">. However,
minor-league statistics are not always great indicators of true talent level
because things such as age and experience vary by level. I got the
opportunity to watch Fleming warm-up as I was situated near the visitor's
bullpen. Fleming showed solid run and sink on his two-seam fastball and
he was able to utilize this pitch to get out of trouble and induce a double
play in the eighth inning. He didn't have the strongest line of the
night, and he may only be a middle-reliever type but I liked what I saw from
Fleming and could envision him coming out of the bullpen as a middle-man in the
majors at some point in his career.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"> He finished 2011 with
a 5-4 record, 3.48 ERA, and 105 K in 82.2 IP.
Unfortunately I did not have a radar gun and was sitting down the first
base line during this game, but I hope to see Fleming pitch again this
season. Fleming had a solid spring and I
believe that there was some discussion about Fleming breaking camp with the
Rays, but he started off 2012 in AAA Durham.
Thus far Fleming has struggled to make the adjustment to AAA and has
allowed 12 ER, 14 H, and 9 BB in only 11 innings. Again, it is early in the season and Fleming
may still be getting used to pitching in AAA.
Still, as I said in my notebook last season, Fleming’s ceiling is probably
that of a middle-reliever as I do not think that he is overpowering enough to
be a closer, but here is a reason why you should root for him: </span><a href="http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080617/SPORTS/806170336">http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080617/SPORTS/806170336</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, (for now) Matt Bush. Here is what I wrote about the former No. 1
pick last season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-size: 10pt;">Like
Jacksonville, Montgomery also used an overpowering RHP out of the bullpen after
pulling their starter. </span></i><i><span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=456713" style="text-align: -webkit-auto;"><span style="background: white; color: #7c7c7c; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Matt Bush</span></a><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span style="text-align: -webkit-auto;">, 25, former 1st overall pick by the San Diego
Padres in 2004 pitched 2 innings of relief work for the Biscuits. Drafted as a
SS, Bush has resurrected his baseball career after being out of the game for a
number of years. Bush pitched 13.2 innings last year in the GCL and
Florida State League, but this year has been his first true test as a pitcher.
Because of his age and relative inexperience as a pitcher, Bush was not
featured on many prospect lists coming into the season. However, his outing
in Game 1 was pretty impressive. Bush pitched 2 innings, surrendered 2 walks,
yet struck out 4 and did not allow any hits or runs. He flashed an
overpowering fastball that appeared to be in the mid-90s and had decent command
of the pitch. His breaking ball was sharp and froze a couple of hitters
for called third strikes, but his command of the pitch was spotty. Bush
does not have the typical pitchers body, only standing at 5-9" but he has
thick legs and a strong torso, along with a very strong arm, which allows him
to create such great torque and pitch in the mid-90s. With some more
seasoning and experience Bush may eventually find himself in a MLB bullpen in
the future.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bush finished 2011 in Montgomery, going 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA
and an impressive 77 K in 50.1 IP. While
Bush did not enter 2011 on many people’s radar he pitched well enough to be in
the conversation for a big-league roster spot.
Unfortunately, Bush’s off-field decisions have likely ended his attempt
to play in the big leagues. Bush had
previously struggled with alcohol and drugs while in the Padres organization,
and this year, during Spring Training Bush borrowed a teammate’s vehicle on an
off-day and was involved in a nasty hit-and-run DUI incident that still has him
sitting in a jail cell (For more read <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_matt_bush_arrest_alcohol_dui_crash_032612">this
tremendous article</a> by Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports). I (along with many others) was rooting for
Matt Bush, but regrettably his demons caught up with him and we will not be
able to witness a career revival reminiscent of Josh Hamilton. Hopefully, the accident victim is able to
fully recover and Bush is able to find a happy and safe balance in life.</span></span><o:p></o:p></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-70316359346049015682012-03-27T20:07:00.000-07:002012-03-27T20:07:50.421-07:00Player Profile: South Carolina RHP Evan Beal<div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u><b>Video of Beal from H.S</b></u>.: </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://bit.ly/Hkunb7">http://bit.ly/Hkunb7</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><u>Grade</u></b>: Freshman<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><u>Hometown</u></b>: Fairfax Station, VA</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><u>Notable Information</u></b>: Drafted in the 8th Round of the 2011 MLB First-Year Player Draft by the Kansas City Royals; Rated No. 393 best high school prospect in the nation (2011) by Perfect Game USA; Rated No. 2 player in Virginia (2011) by Baseball America</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Body: 6-3, 185 </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u><b>Background with the player</b></u>: Observed player’s outing v. University of Kentucky on 3/16/2012</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><u>Tools</u></b>: Beal has the ideal body for a young pitching prospect. He is listed at 6’3 on the South Carolina website (although other publications list him as tall as 6’5) and has an athletic body type that could carry an additional fifteen to twenty-five pounds at full maturity. Like many pitchers, Beal’s release point is of the high three-quarter variety (there are very few straight overhand deliveries—Josh Collmenter, etc.) and the delivery is smooth and easy, as the ball appears to explode out of his hand upon release. From the windup Beal’s rhythm, pace, and composure reminds me greatly of Rick Porcello, and like Porcello (at least out of high school) Beal features an overpowering fastball. While he is facing collegiate hitters, Beal’s FB velocity is still a 60 at present, as it sits around 92-94 mph with the ability to play up to 95-96. In the outing that I observed Beal’s command of the fastball was pretty solid and the pitch featured a bit of late run on it. Beal had two secondary offerings that he featured—a sharp curveball and a hard slider/cutter that had some nice late movement on it. It is hard for me to throw a grade on either pitch as this moment, given my limited background with the player, but from my vantage point both pitches had great, late break that has the ability to miss bats consistently. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><u>Results</u></b>: As of tonight, March 27, 2012 Beal has appeared in 10 games, throwing 14 and 2/3 innings, allowing 7 hits, 5 walks, and six earned runs for a 3.68 ERA and .817 WHIP. He has struck out 23 batters over his 14.2 innings for a K/9 ratio of 14.11. However, he has been prone to the long ball, giving up three homers in his limited workload. Specifically, in the outing that I saw—an appearance v. Kentucky on Friday night game—Beal gave up a walk-off homer. In his inning and a third of work, Beal struck out three hitters and looked great, except for hitting a batter and giving up the long ball. The homer was off of his curveball, a spinner that he left over the heart of the plate. Regardless of the result I was very impressed with Beal’s arsenal and his numbers (specifically his strikeout numbers) this year, show that his stuff is dominant. However, with that being said, I think that he should be careful not to fall in love with his curveball—it is a very good pitch and has missed bats, but I felt that he relied on that pitch too much and has the ability to use his fastball far more than he showed in his appearance vs. UK.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><u>Projection</u></b>: This year Beal has been used as a reliever by South Carolina coach Ray Tanner. Beal definitely has the pedigree to start and I think that next year Beal will become USCe’s Friday night starter. Much of Beal’s professional value will fall on his ability to develop another serviceable off-speed pitch. His curveball and slider/cutter are solid weapons, but at the next level a passable changeup or split is usually needed for one to consistently work through a lineup three or four times. Obviously, scouts are already aware of Beal, as he was drafted in the eighth round last year, so those actually in the business see the potential. If all goes well for Beal (continued development, no injury issues) I could see him being a 1<sup>st</sup> round talent in 2014. </span><o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
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</span></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-19316182279529657432012-03-10T14:36:00.001-08:002012-03-10T14:45:05.610-08:00Scouting at Dick Howser (Pt. 3)<div class="MsoNormal"><b><i><u><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">FSU v. FIU (cont.)<o:p></o:p></span></u></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In my last entry I focused on a handful of FIU’s position players. This post will focus on a couple of Florida International pitchers, <b>R.J. Fondon</b> (Game 1 starter) and <b>Mason McVay </b>(Game 2 starter). Unfortunately the stadium scoreboard does not feature a pitch reading and I still do not own a radar gun, so it was impossible for me to get clear, accurate readings on velocity. However, I felt that I was able to gain a solid understanding of both players’ arsenals.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Fondon</b>, a senior LHP out of Pembroke Pines started the opening game of the series on Friday night. Last season Fondon compiled a 6-6 record with a 3.05 ERA in 16 starts. Statistics such as wins and ERA can sometimes be misleading because they are team-dependent, but talent evaluators often like to look at how many strikeouts a pitcher tallies (especially at the amateur ranks) because they feel that it helps to shed light on how dominant a pitcher truly is. Last season Fondon only had 55 strikeouts in 97.1 innings pitched (a K/9 ratio of only 5.1) which indicates that his future professional prospects may be limited. However, there are always exceptions to any “rule” so it would be unwise to write off Fondon just from looking at statistics. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Physically, Fondon has a strong pitcher’s frame, at 6’2” and 190 pounds and he looked to be comfortable within his own body and able to repeat his delivery without too much of a problem. He probably has the frame to comfortably carry another 20 pounds or so, which could benefit him down the line. While he was able to repeat his delivery comfortably, Fondon struggled with command of all of his pitches throughout the start. Fondon predominately featured his fastball and slider and occasionally mixed in a slow curveball to keep hitters off-balance. His fastball velocity was nothing special and I would speculate that it ran from 86-91 with the vast majority of pitches sitting in the 86-88 range. Again, his command was nothing special and he did fall behind on a number of hitters. His slider was probably his best pitch, although he featured two different kinds of sliders—a flat, get-me-over cutter type of pitch and a traditional sweeping slider with two-plane break. Fondon threw his cutter early in the count against right-handed hitters and used it in the middle innings as a bit of a change-of-pace. The traditional slider was clearly the superior option, as the two-plane break was sharp and the pitched flashed average (50-grade) potential. While he was able to get a few strikeouts and induce a number of groundouts with the pitch, Fondon still struggled to command the pitch consistently and surrendered a number of walks on the day. Much like his cutter, Fondon’s slow curve was not as potent as his slider. He did not use the slow curve too often, but it was effective on a couple of occasions and he was able to strikeout FSU SS Justin Gonzalez with it. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fondon was able to earn the win and his line from the night read as follows 5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K. While his line is not all that impressive, it should be noted that he fought through a 45 minute rain delay in the second inning. Overall, I feel comfortable saying that Fondon does not feature plus (or even above average) stuff (although his slider does project to be an average pitch), so he will have to improve and refine the command of his entire arsenal to be anything more than an organizational arm in professional baseball.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">FIU’s Game 2 starter was LHP <b>Mason McVay</b>. McVay is a Redshirt Junior that redshirted in 2010 because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. As a freshman in 2009 McVay was predominately used as a reliever and finished the season with 22.1 innings pitched and 23 strikeouts (0-2, 8.06 ERA). Last season, as a RS-Soph, McVay was again used as a reliever, striking out 37 in 30.1 innings pitched (1-1, 3.56 ERA). McVay is a physically imposing lefty, as he stands at 6’7” and is said to weigh in at 240 pounds. Many pitchers of McVay’s size and stature often struggle to repeat their delivery, remain sound mechanically, and consistently command the strike zone. McVay was no different as he fell behind FSU hitters quite often, surrendered five walks, threw one wild pitch, and had to be pulled after four innings due to a high pitch count. However, McVay also flashed a significant amount of promise. He pumped in his fastball with pretty good velocity—presumably between 91 and 95 mph (and sitting at 92-93) and was able to overpower a number of Seminoles, especially left-handed hitters Jose Brizuela and Sherman Johnson. Like Fondon, McVay also utilized two different breaking balls, a hard slider and a slow curve. When thrown effectively, McVay was able to bury his slider beneath the hands of right-handed hitters and work it down and away to lefties. He struggled commanding the pitch in the first and second innings, but he really settled in during the third and fourth innings and was able to induce a number of strikeouts and weak groundouts. Overall, the pitch flashed average to above average as it had late, sharp two-plane break. McVay’s curveball was a get-me-over type of pitch that he used early in the count vs. both sides. Although, he may have gotten one or two swings and misses on it the pitch itself was not very effective, and in its current form it would not be a legitimate offering at the next level. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As previously mentioned, McVay was erratic mechanically and had some real difficulty repeating his delivery, which I believe may be traced back to an inconsistent landing point with his front leg. When McVay missed with his fastball he was generally missing high, with his arm to dragging through the zone. Similarly, his a number of his breaking balls were flat, spinners as he was not consistently getting on top of the pitches and replicating his release point. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">McVay’s final line for the day: 4 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 9 K. Overall, there were some obvious pros and cons with McVay’s outing. Clearly, he struggled to command all of his pitches. However, after a long first two innings (4 BB), McVay was able to settle in and was more consistent with his delivery as he only walked one batter over the next two innings. McVay also flashed above-average velocity, especially for a pitcher from the left-side. His slider, while inconsistent, also flashed above-average potential. 6’7” left-handed pitchers with two average to above-average pitchers do not grow on trees and if McVay if is able to remain health and refine his command as the season progresses he may see himself being drafted in early June. </span><o:p></o:p></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-24183293160917307542012-03-06T19:43:00.002-08:002012-03-10T14:45:45.564-08:00"Scouting" at Dick Howser (Part Two)<div class="MsoNormal"><b><i><u><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">FSU v. FIU<o:p></o:p></span></u></i></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the second weekend of the college baseball season Florida State hosted Florida International (FIU) out of Miami, FL. FIU plays in the Sun Belt Conference and presented a much deeper and more talented roster than Hofstra (whom FSU played in the weekend prior). Florida State won the three game series, but FIU took game one. I was only able to attend Games 1 and 2 of the series (and I will be writing about FSU players in more detail at a later date), but a number of Florida International players caught my eye.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The first player that jumped out to me was FIU center fielder <b>Pablo Bermudez</b> <b>(R/R).</b> Bermudez is a senior out of Miami Shores, FL and is listed at 6’0” and 195 pounds. Last season, as a junior Bermudez was the Conference Player of the Year, hit .373 with 16 2B, 5 HR, and 17 SB. However, despite his solid season Bermudez was not selected in the MLB First-Year Player Draft. Bermudez had a very nice series, including three hits in Game 1, but in scouting the player’s on-field results (especially at the amateur levels) are not as important as the process. While he does not appear to be freakishly-athletic or super muscular, Bermudez seems to be every bit the 195 pounds he is listed. Defensively, Bermudez appears to be up to the task in center field. He looked comfortable patrolling the outfield and took good, accurate routes on both fly balls and base hits into the gaps. The only time that I was able to clock Bermudez’s home to 1<sup>st</sup> split was when he dropped down a bunt for a hit. So, while Bermudez recorded a scorching 3.68 from the right side, the results are slightly skewed given his head start. Regardless, a 3.68 on a bunt-for-hit situation should still clock around a 4.1 or 4.2 on a normal swing, which would give Bermudez a plus (60) to plus-plus (70) speed tool. At the plate, Bermudez appeared comfortable, was rarely off-balance, and he displayed plate discipline throughout the weekend, delivering solid AB’s in Games 1 and 2. While his power potential is rather limited, Bermudez displayed solid gap power, delivering a double to right-center field in Game 1. Overall, I came away rather impressed and was surprised to learn that he was not drafted at all last year. I fully expect Bermudez to be drafted this summer, but I think that the draft position (which round) will be dependent on his ability to handle top-notch pitching. Florida State’s pitching is rather pedestrian this season, so it will be interesting to see how Bermudez fares against quality arms such as conference foe Tyler Ray of Troy.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The second FIU player that caught my eye was second baseman <b>Tyler James Shantz </b>(R/R). Shantz is a junior from Greenwood Village, Colorado that is listed as 6’1” and 205 pounds. Shantz did not appear to be that tall, but he definitely looks like he is a solid 200 pounds. I honestly expected Shantz to be playing shortstop when FIU took the field given his athletic body type (but I will discuss FIU’s shortstop Julius Gaines next). Regardless, Shantz looked very comfortable at 2B and I think that he would probably be able to handle playing shortstop (at least at the college level) given how smooth his movements were. Balls hit to Shantz were few and far between, but his footwork on a double play turn was smooth and his arm was adequate. At the plate, Shantz showcased an (overly?) aggressive approach and appeared to be guessing quite a bit which left him vulnerable to off-speed pitches. However, like Bermudez, he hit a double to right-center field. Mechanically, his swing looked compact (and athletic) and the swing path allowed the barrel to stay within the zone for an extended period of time. However, from what I saw in my limited time at the game, it appears that Shantz may have to focus on honing his approach and recognizing pitches earlier out of the hand. Regardless, I think that Shantz is a very interesting prospect because of his athleticism/size and it will be fun to see how he develops as the year progresses.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Given my consternation with Shantz’s assignment to man the keystone, I was naturally curious about FIU’s shortstop, <b>Julius Gaines</b>. Gaines, a freshman out of McDonough, Georgia, is listed at 6’0” and 165 pounds, but I think that his weight is probably closer to 150 pounds. Because I hurriedly fell in love with Shantz’s athleticism, I felt a bit vindicated when Gaines made an error on a routine groundball to his right in the first inning of Game 1. However, after watching Gaines play 17 more innings of baseball over the weekend, I realized that the kid could play ball and could be a player to watch in the coming years. Clearly, Gaines’ lack of size and strength are detractors, but he is only a true freshman and given a couple of more years to fill out and work with strength coaches, he could easily end up weighing 175-180 pounds by the time he draft eligible. Even taking into consideration his first-inning error, Gaines remained composed and displayed polish and solid fundamentals in the field. I still have some questions about his athleticism and if he would be able to handle playing shortstop professionally—but again, he is young and I only got to see him play in two games, hardly enough time to get an entirely accurate portrait of his true defensive capabilities. At the plate, Gaines showed the ability to make adjustments within AB (something that is rare for a true freshman in college). <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Exhibit A</i>: In Game 1, in his first AB (immediately after committing the aforementioned error) Gaines flailed at a breaking ball early in the count, but fought off a couple of fastballs and later in the count ripped a single on a breaking ball.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i>Exhibit B</i>: In Game 2, Gaines worked a ten-pitch AB, fouling off a variety of pitches, including a handful of sliders that had given him trouble early in the count. In the final pitch of his AB, Gaines made solid contact on a low-away FB and flew out to RF. Given more time to add strength and refine his swing, that fly out becomes an extra base hit.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Overall, Gaines is an appealing young prospect and I really liked his approach at the plate and ability to make in-game adjustments. Unfortunately, I was not able to get a home-1<sup>st</sup> time to measure his speed, and I still have questions about his overall athleticism and ability to stay at shortstop, but I think that Gaines is a player worth watching, especially if he is able to add some muscle to his frame.</span><o:p></o:p></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-20220436210767827682012-03-03T20:42:00.001-08:002012-03-10T14:46:19.137-08:00"Scouting" at Dick Howser (Part One)<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Throughout the past year or so I have read and listened to many MLB prospect writers/experts that have dismissed many collegiate baseball players as non-prospects, deficient talent, career minor leaguers, or organizational fillers. At first I did not agree with what these writers and experts were saying. How could college baseball players not be legitimate talent? However, as I’ve become more familiar with scouting and player development their theory makes sense. Players drafted out of high school are thrust into a professional environment at the age of 17 or 18, while those drafted out of the Latin markets are afforded the ability to refine their tools and learn from professional instruction when they are 16. There is no doubt that college coaches are knowledgeable, competent, and solid instructors and mentors, but NCAA rules limits practice time thereby cutting into the student-athletes development as baseball players. So why the 16-22 year olds drafted out of high school or signed out of various Latin markets are constantly cultivating their tools without much limitation, collegiate baseball players are not able to consistently train and have to navigate class, homework, etc. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The past few weekends I have been able to watch Florida State’s baseball team take on the Hofstra Pride and the Florida International Golden Panthers. Rankings in college baseball typically from a number of sources (Coaches, NCBBWA, Baseball America, etc.), but just for perspective, FSU’s baseball team was ranked anywhere from #8 to #20 in the pre-season. They lost a handful of key players to the MLB draft last year, including LHP Sean Gilmartin, who was drafted by Atlanta Braves in the first round year. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As I have had the chance to attend (and actively “scout”) a number of minor-league baseball games and seen firsthand what top prospects look and perform like, I was interested to see how everything would play out because I had never had the chance to attend a Division-I baseball game in person. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><i><u>FSU v. Hofstra</u></i></b><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This three-game series was the opening weekend for college baseball in 2012 and FSU handled Hofstra pretty easily, taking all three games of the series. While team results are not of any importance for scouts (or aspiring scouts), the talent disparity between the two programs was easily discernable. However, in order to showcase my #want I will still run down a number of players that caught my eye, even if their professional prospects are slim to none (hey, they are all still more talented than I).<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Game 2 starter for Hofstra was RHP John Tiedemann, who listed as 6’0 and 175 pounds by the Hofstra website. Tiedemann is a junior college transfer from Cuenta College in San Luis Opispo, California. Tiedemann’s high three-quarter delivery was clean and simple but he still had some command issues and only lasted 2+ innings after walking four and giving up three hits (and three runs). I didn’t have a radar gun and there was no listing on the stadium, but it was clear that he was throwing his fastball in the mid-80’s and might have run it up as high as 86-87 (maybe). Even though I was not able to sit behind home plate, I did get to see him warm up in the bullpen before the game started, and his FB did show a bit of run and sink to it. Additionally, Tiedemann featured a half-decent slider that he was able to use to induce a strikeout, but the pitch was not professional-quality as it did not feature an especially sharp or two-plane break.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Hofstra’s Game 3 starter was John Schilt (listed a 6’1, 190). His arsenal was extremely similar to Tiedemann’s, as his fastball was nowhere near overpowering and his breaking pitches were not especially sharp either. Like Tiedemann, Schilt struggled with his command and was removed from the game after 0.2 IP with 5 BB. Hofstra’s relief pitchers were not particularly impressive or relevant so I’ll move on to a few of their position players.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> SS Dalton Rouleau had a solid series and is the prototypical scrappy college shortstop. Like Tiedmann, Rouleau is a transfer from California; however he attended Allan Hancock College. Rouleau’s lack of size and projection is evident, as he is only 5-9 and 170 pounds (listed). His size limits his pop and ability to drive balls into the gaps consistently, but throughout the series he worked the count and fouled off numerous pitches in two-strike counts. While he was able to steal two bases in GM 2, he did so by smart and aggressive baserunning—he is by no means a blazer. In GM 2 Rouleau was 1-3, 2 BB, 2 SB and in GM 3 he was 1-3.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> OF Danny Poma is yet another transfer out of California. He previously attended Cuesta College, but in 2011 he proved that he was up to the task at the Division-I level, as he garnered All-Colonial Athletic Association honors by hitting .382/.452/.528 with 16 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, and 20 SB. Out of all of the Hofstra position players, Poma (listed at 6-1, 220) definitely looked the most like a future professional baseball player. However, it should be noted that Poma does not really profile as a true prospect. He has decent size and athleticism and his movements in the field looked fluid, but he did not play in center field. Instead, in all three games Poma started at RF. While it may not seem like a big deal, the fact that he does not play center field at the college level indicates that he will probably not be able to handle the increased defensive responsibilities at the professional level either. Furthermore, while in RF he badly misplayed a fly ball (committing an error) and also took a few poor angles. Now some of this may be because the wind was swirling throughout the game (and because it is still early in the season and teams from the north have had limited practice time outdoors) but it does raise potential questions about his defensive chops and focus. Also, while I mentioned Poma’s athletic frame, his 4.5 time from home to first on a play that required maximum effort down the line signifies that speed is not necessarily one of Poma’s greatest assets despite his 20 SB last season (it also shows how pitchers and catchers struggle to control the running game at the college level). At the plate Poma had an aggressive, yet solid approach and he displayed the ability to sit back and work to the opposite field. Furthermore, Poma remained balanced throughout most of his ABs and was able to generate significant torque from his core and hips to flash gap-power. Poma went 4-5 (2B and SB) and 0-4 in Games 2 and 3 respectively.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Finally, Hofstra’s 1B Jared Hammer had solid a series offensively, going 2 for 5 in GM2 and 3 for 4 with a double in GM 3. However, Hammer at 6-1, 235 is a typical “bad body” baseball player. He only profiles as a first basemen, and given the offensive demands of the position he will have to hit consistently and for power to be a legitimate prospect. While Hammer hit well during the series, it should be noted that FSU does not feature top-line or even plus pitching for the college level (much less even average and below-average in the professional realm). So it should come as little surprise to find out that Hammer had some notable deficiencies in his swing. For somebody his size, Hammer’s swing is not particularly long, but the swing path is not direct—rather it appeared as if he had a hitch that prevented him from consistently keeping the barrel through the zone. As a result his swing was a bit loopy, which will leave him vulnerable to plus velocity in on the hands (provided he faces such quality in the future). Regardless, Hammer showed good hand-eye coordination and ability to work the count and get the bat on the ball. While his professional prospects are slim, if he continues to produce and get on base he will earn the chance to play at the next level until he fails. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Upcoming Posts</span></b></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While I had originally planned on including analysis of FSU players in this entry as well, I have decided to hold off on posting my thoughts on them until a later date, when I hope to publish more complete player-specific profiles and actual OFPs. In my next entry, I will write about FSU's series with Florida International University and a number of Golden Panthers such as Pablo Bermudez, Tyler Shantz, and Mason McVay.</span></div>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-47638183287146444812011-08-24T16:47:00.000-07:002011-08-24T16:47:30.569-07:00"Scouting" in the Southern League (Mobile v. Jacksonville)<br />
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Wednesday, August 17<sup>th</sup> and Saturday August 20<sup>th</sup> I was able to attend games between the Mobile Bay Bears (AA Affiliate of Arizona Diamondbacks) and the Jacksonville Suns (AA Affiliate of Florida Marlins).<span> </span>Both games featured top prospect starting pitchers for Mobile as RHP <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=519105">Jarrod Parker</a> and RHP <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=545333">Trevor Bauer</a> took the mound on the 17<sup>th</sup> and 20<sup>th</sup> respectively.<span> </span>Parker was a first-round draft pick in 2007, but missed all of 2010 due to an arm injury.<span> </span>Trevor Bauer was the third overall pick in this past May’s draft out of UCLA.<span> </span>Both pitchers earned the win and had relatively solid outings statistically speaking as Parker’s line read 6 IP, 3H, 3 BB, 0 ER, and 6 K while Bauer’s read 5 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 ER (1 HR), and 8 K.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=519105">Parker</a>’s fastball sat at 90-94 throughout his six innings of work and hit 95 on a couple different occasions.<span> </span>His best secondary pitch was his slider which sat around 83-84 mph and featured a sharp, two-plane break.<span> </span>Parker was able to throw the slider very effectively to lefties as he was able to both backdoor it and bury underneath their hands and at their feet.<span> </span>I did not pick up on many changeups or curveballs by Parker, but it was more difficult to pick up on the subtleties of his performance as I was located in the bleachers in right center field.<span> </span>However, Parker looked to have a very smooth and athletic throwing motion as he was able to consistently repeat his high-3/4 delivery from both the full windup and the stretch.<span> </span>Parker scattered 3 hits, worked around 3 BB’s effectively, and was able to finish six innings without allowing a run.<span> </span>Overall, Parker’s outing was not overly impressive but successful and solid in its own right. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although Jarrod Parker is widely considered a top prospect in all of baseball, I was more excited to watch Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 MLB First-Year Player Draft, pitch as it was his second career start in AA.<span> </span>There has been much written about Bauer’s dominating career at UCLA, his slight frame and <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDZaU-5njRk">unique delivery</a>, and the possibility of him pitching in the big leagues sometime this year.<span> </span>Scouts and many people within the blogosphere have been <a href="http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story?id=6873714&_slug_=mlb-trevor-bauer-arizona-diamondbacks-put-top&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2fstory%3fid%3d6873714%26_slug_%3dmlb-trevor-bauer-arizona-diamondbacks-put-top">wondering whether or not Bauer should even be pitching at this pointbecause of his heavy workload</a> (both innings and pitch count wise) this past spring/summer at UCLA.<span> </span>Bauer’s outing was not as consistent as Parker’s was, yet his pure stuff seemed more impressive (It should be noted that for Bauer’s outing I was in the scouting section behind home plate, whereas for Parker’s outing I was in the outfield bleachers).<span> </span>Bauer’s <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDZaU-5njRk">windup and delivery</a> often draw comparisons to Tim Lincecum’s and it does seem similar in some regards, but some of this comparison is also undoubtedly due to the fact that both are smaller in stature yet have excellent fastball velocity and sharp breaking pitches.<span> </span>Bauer’s delivery is a bit complicated but he manages it well and is able to repeat his delivery at a pretty consistent rate. However, there were times within this specific outing that it looked like he was laboring and fighting against himself (but this could be due to a number of other factors—fatigue, loss of concentration, etc.)<span> </span>Bauer’s fastball ranged from 91-95 mph and featured some arm-side run to it. He flashed a sharp slider and 12-6 curveball that was absolutely devastating at times and completely fell off the table.<span> </span>His changeup featured some arm-side run and sink to it but his command of the pitch was spotty.<span> </span>As I mentioned earlier, Bauer walked three in his five innings and went to two and three ball counts many times so it was clear that Bauer was not working with his best stuff or command.<span> </span>However, he still managed to strike out eight batters and shatter a few bats in only five innings of work.<span> </span>The homerun that he allowed was to Kyle Skipworth, a struggling prospect of which I have touched upon before, on a changeup that appeared to be a case of poor location as it was belt high and inside to the left-hander.<span> </span>All in all, Bauer’s performance was very impressive and it is easy to see why there have been talks about him pitching in the majors later this year (although whether he should or shouldn’t is still up for debate).<span> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have covered many of the Jacksonville Suns’ position players in previous posts, but there were a few new players that briefly caught my eye.<span> </span>SS <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=451587">Jeff Dominguez </a>made a few nice plays in the field for the Suns including a great play up the middle that demonstrated his range and arm strength as his throw was able to beat Mobile’s leadoff hitter and RF Adam Eaton.<span> </span>Dominguez, 26, had been called up to fill in for Chris Gutierrez, but has since been sent back down to the Marlin’s Florida State League (High-A) and appears to be an organizational player more than anything else, as his bat has been nothing throughout the minors.<span> </span>The Suns’ RF <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=RF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=571812">Kyle Jensen</a> was pretty impressive in both games that I saw (again limited sample size) as he showed the ability to barrel balls the other way (off Jarrod Parker) and flashed nice range in right field.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Another player that I got a quick look at was Suns’ reliever LHP <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501699">Ramon Benjamin</a>.<span> </span>I had seen Benjamin before and was able to get a better sense of what kind of pitcher he was this time around because of my seats behind homeplate. Bejamin has a very complicated delivery that does not seem very conducive to a long, healthy career because it looks to put a lot of stress on his elbow, but he really only profiles a reliever and lefty-specialist anyway so it may not be a major issue. Benjamin was effectively wild in his appearance and was able to strike out (left-handed hitting) Mobile 3B Ryan Wheeler (who is having a great year at the plate) with a series of sliders in the dirt that were clocked at 85 mph and fastballs that were clocked between 90 and 95 mph.<span> </span>Bejamin was also able to effectively work against right-handed hitters, although from my perspective it seems as if he would be only be suitable/effective as a lefty-specialist role at the major-league level.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A player that I profiled previously, RHP<a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543141"> Bryan Evans</a> started opposite Trevor Bauer but had a very poor evening, as he struggled to find the strike zone (walked opposing SP Bauer twice) and his line read 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 4 K. Evans’ was not very consistent with any of his pitches, but especially his slider which seemed to be much more flat than the previous outing that I was able to see (IMO his curveball still seems to be the sharper breaking ball and a better option than the slider, even though he throws it only around 74-75 mph).<span> </span>His FB velocity was still between 85-91 mph but again his command was sharp enough and he paid it, after being pulled early.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mobile’s lineup had two position players that particularly intrigued me, CF <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=LF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572041">AJ Pollock</a> and 3B <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572253">Ryan Wheeler</a>.<span> </span>Both Pollock and Wheeler were high draft picks out of their respective colleges, Notre Dame and Loyola Marymount (CA).<span> </span><a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=LF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572041">Pollock</a> flashed good speed throughout both of the games that I was able to attend, beating out a groundball to the 2<sup>nd</sup> baseman.<span> </span>He also flashed good range in CF and appeared to make good reads off the bat after the ball was put into play.<span> </span><a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=572253">Ryan Wheeler</a>, who I alluded to earlier when writing about Ramon Benjamin has had a solid year thus far and flashed his hit tool in both games that I attended.<span> </span>Wheeler has a nice level swing plane and appeared to be very comfortable in the batter’s box as he was able to consistently repeat his swing mechanics and track balls out of the pitchers hand.<span> </span>The one exception to this was his at-bat against Benjamin (also the only lefty that I remember seeing him face) where he looked all out of sorts.<span> </span>It was hard to get a read on his work in the field because of limited opportunities, but he did not look to be very fluid when he allowed a foul pop-up to drop that probably should have been caught.<span> </span>It would be foolish to draw any conclusions from one single play (and I’m sure numerous scouts could provide much more insight on Wheeler’s proficiency in the field), but it will be interesting to see how Wheeler develops in the field and if he can and will stick at 3B. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i><b>Updates</b></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"></div><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Montgomery SP <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502042">Chris Archer</a> won Southern League Pitcher of the Week Award after allowing just 1 hit (albeit with 5 BB) in 7 innings of work. Archer was also just called up to AAA Durham.</span></li>
</ul><br />
<div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"></div><ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Montgomery SS <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542921">Tim Beckham</a> who was called up to AAA Durham over a week ago has continued to hit well at the next level as he has hit .291 with 3 HR in 55 AB.</span></li>
</ul><o:p></o:p><br />
Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-82046061191382832592011-08-11T11:08:00.000-07:002011-08-11T11:08:27.933-07:00Prospect Update<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last week I highlighted a number of prospects for the Florida Marlins and Tampa Rays after seeing their AA affiliates--the Jacksonville Suns and Montgomery Biscuits. I haven't had a chance to attend/scout any more games since last week, so instead here is a brief update on what these prospects have done within the last week.</span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />
</span><br />
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Montgomery Biscuits</span></i><br />
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<ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542921">Tim Beckham</a>, who I noted was easily the best prospect on the field during the Suns-Biscuits series, has since been promoted to the Ray's AAA-affiliate the Durham Bulls. Beckham went 5-16 with 2 2B, 2 SB, and 4 RBI in his last five games at Montgomery. The only other SS on Durham's roster at this point is Ray Olmedo, a 30 year old journeyman-type, so Beckham figures to receive a decent amount of playing type and those within the Rays organization will undoubtedly be keeping a close eye to see if Beckham can continue to produce offensively and improve his defense.</span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">OF <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Kyeong%20Kang&pos=CF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502439">Kyeong Kang</a> has continued to get on base. Kang has gone 4-15 with a HR, 4 RBI, and 2 BB in his last five games. </span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to milb.com 2B <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502523">Shawn O'Malley</a>, a personal favorite of mine after seeing him play last week, has only played in one game since the Jacksonville series. In his one appearance against the Mobile BayBears O'Malley was 0-3 with a BB, 2K, but also 2 SB. The MTG Biscuits roster now lists O'Malley as SS and Cole Figueroa as a 2B (rather than 3B). The Biscuits also appear to have called up SS prospect Hak-Ju Lee from the Florida State League, so it may be that O'Malley is dinged up, or more likely is splitting time between SS and 2B behind both Lee, a higher rated prospect, and Figueroa, who has a more potent, powerful bat than O'Malley.</span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">RHP <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502042">Chris Archer</a> has had one successful start since the series against Jacksonville. Archer went 5 innings, gave up 3 hits, 1 earned run, 3 BB, and struck out 6. </span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">RHP <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=517008">Alexander Colome </a>who I covered in more detail in Part 3 of my analysis, also had a successful start against Mobile. Colome went deeper into the game (7 IP) than Archer, thanks in part due to better command (only 2 BB). However, Colome only struck out two batters in his seven innings of work, compared to his 6 K in 6.1 IP against Jacksonville. </span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">RHP <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=456713">Matt Bush</a> has appeared in two games since last week's series. Both of his relief stints were 2 innings long and in his 4 IP Bush struck out 5 hitters without walking anybody. However, he did allow a HR.</span></li>
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<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jacksonville Suns </span></i><br />
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<ul><li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">C <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=C&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543788">Kyle Skipworth</a> has continued to struggle at the plate going 2 for his last 16, with one of his hits being a HR.</span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">LF Jake Smolinski has also similarly since the series against Montgomery as he has also gone 2 for his last 16.</span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">RHP <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=t564&t=p_pbp&pid=543141">Bryan Evans</a> has had one start since his victory against MTG on 8/3. Evans went 7 innings against the Chattanooga Lookouts (AA for LA Dodgers) and somehow only let up 2 ER as he gave up 10 hits, walked 1, and struck out only 1. This stat line, like Evans' pure stuff is not very impressive (although he did record 6K against MTG), but somehow Evans managed to record another quality start.</span></li>
<li><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2B <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=2B&sid=t564&t=p_pbp&pid=502145">Jim Negrych </a>has continued to produce solid results, as he has gone 9-18 in the past 6 games. Negrych, who has no overwhelming tools per-se has been very productive all season long for Jacksonville, with a slash line of .320/.389/.421. However, until Negrych develops more pop in his bat it may be difficult for him to be considered a true prospect. Regardless, if he continues to hit for average he could eventually find himself on a MLB bench as a role player.</span></li>
</ul>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-41523335341368298242011-08-05T15:51:00.000-07:002011-08-05T15:51:30.505-07:00"Scouting" in the Southern League (Pt. 3--Position Players & Other Notes)<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> It is harder to evaluate position players (hitters) than it is pitchers because they have less opportunities throughout a single game to showcase their abilities at the plate and at the field. A position player may get only three or four plate appearances whereas a starting pitcher directly affects every single pitch for as long as he is in the game. Furthermore, the position player (read: fielder) may not even get a single ball hit to him all game, so grading one's defensive abilities takes time and patience. Again, even though I am no professional scout I will attempt to analyze the play of a few position players from both the Montgomery Biscuits and the Jacksonville Suns.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=542921">Tim Beckham</a>, age 21, is a shortstop prospect for the Montgomery Biscuits who was drafted 1st overall in the 2008 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays. Beckham had a rough first three seasons in the minors and some people were already proclaiming the youngster a bust. Kevin Goldstein rated Beckham as the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13013">Rays' 18th best prospect coming into the season</a> and John Sickels gave Beckham a <a href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/25/2291484/tampa-bay-rays-2011-top-20-pre-season-prospects-in-review">C+ grade before opening day</a>. By both accounts Beckham's 2011 was going to largely be a make-or-break type of year. So far this season his numbers have been <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa454347&position=SS">pretty solid</a> and after watching him for three games I can confidently say that he was the best position player on the field for either team. Beckham has quick wrists at the plate and shows some pop in his bat. He looked to have a solid approach and was quick to exploit pitchers who left balls over the plate or attacked him early in the count with fastballs. He flashed good opposite field power as he took the first pitch that he saw from Bryan Evans (a fastball) to the right center field gap for a double. He also hit a number of other balls hard throughout the series that resulted in outs. Some of Beckham's detractors point to his fielding and after seeing him firsthand they do have a point. Beckham showed solid range on a couple of plays to his left, but he also committed one throwing error and was bailed out by his first baseman on another. Both plays were relatively routine groundballs, but Beckham sat back and gave himself an in between hop. His rhythm was thrown off which altered his throws. It appears as if he has the athleticism to play shortstop, but he needs to make the plays easier for himself and keep his concentration in the field if he is to stay at the position (there is some thought that he will eventually have to move to 3rd base).</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa327822&position=OF">Kyeong Kang</a> (LF/RF) for Montgomery, age 23, was a 15th round draft pick out of a Georgia high school. The native South Korean was not listed in the Top 20 pre-season lists of TB prospects by Goldstein or Sickels, but he did impress me throughout the series. Kang played for the World Team in the 2009 Futures Game, but had a poor 2010 season in the High-A Florida State League for Charlotte. 2011 has been a bounce back year for Kang as he currently sports an <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502439">OBP of .395</a>. Again, minor-league statistics can sometimes be misleading and do not always tell the whole story, but I came away thinking that Kang may have a bright future. He showed a good approach at the plate, was able to fight off tough pitches with two strikes, and hit a number of balls solidly. Kang's wrists were not as quick as Beckham's and his swing did appear to be a bit long. Kang also has questionable athleticism and his power numbers are not ideal for a corner outfielder. However, Kang did show off a very strong and accurate arm as he had two outfield assists in the three games that I was able to attend. I enjoyed watching Kang play and think that he could profile as a second division starter or a 4th OF type at the MLB level.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa326729&position=SS"> Shawn O'Malley</a> is a 23 year old second baseman for Montgomery that was drafted in the 5th round out of his high school in Washington state. O'Malley is a <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=502523">good athlete</a> as he was first-team all-state as a wide receiver, defensive back, and kick returner. Like Kang, O'Malley was not listed on Goldstein or Sickels top prospect lists, and in all honesty he does not warrant a spot on a top prospect list. O'Malley has very little power (2 career minor league homeruns in 1678 plate appearances (via FanGraphs) which limits his value drastically. However, in my mind O'Malley is still a fine player. He is a switch hitter that shows quick hands from both sides of the plate and has solid speed. He also had a tendency to work the count well and provide some quality ABs. O'Malley is athletic and he would provide an organization more value if he could play SS, but it appeared that he did not have the necessary skill set to do so. He looked good at second base and made a very nice play to his right which highlighted his range, but did not appear to translate well to move across the diamond. Overall, O'Malley is a fine, pesky player that is a joy to watch but he will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to reach the majors.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa501600&position=OF">Brett Nommensen</a> is a 24 year old OF for Montgomery that was drafted in the eight round of the 2009 draft out of Eastern Illinois University. Nommensen was just recently called up to AA and he started two games in the five game series. Nommensen has not hit particularly well in his brief minor league career, but he has shown an ability to draw walks and get on base (.391 OBP between High A and AA this year). Nommensen stole 35 bases last year (and 20 so far this year), but did not seem to be especially fast as he was thrown out on a slow roller to 3rd in Game 1. Like Kang and O'Malley, Nommensen saw a number of pitches, had quality at bats, and rarely seemed to be fooled by off-speed offerings. Nommensen was 2-6 in the series and it will be interesting to see how much playing time he receives for the rest of his AA stint.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Like Tim Beckham, catcher <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa454355&position=C">Kyle Skipworth</a> was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft (sixth overall to Beckham's first). However, unlike Beckham Skipworth has not been able to put it together at the plate. Skipworth, just 21 is very close to being <i>rightfully</i> labeled as a bust. Kevin Goldstein rated Skipworth as the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12636">Marlins' 9th overall prospect coming into the season</a>. In his three plus minor-league seasons Skipworth has failed to hit over .250 and he does not draw enough walks to provide a meaningful on-base percentage. From what I saw it seemed as though Skipworth had a very uneven swing path which was consistently loopy. Furthermore, he did not respond well at all to any quality off-speed pitch. Finally, Skipworth had a poor weight transfer and tended to jump at pitches rather than explode through the ball with quick wrists. Skipworth has some power in his bat, as he hit 17 HR last year, but if he does not turn things around soon his future may be in jeopardy. I was not accurately able to assess Skipworth's defensive attributes behind the plate, so even if Skipworth does not hit he may be able to sneak his way into the major-leagues as a defense-only catcher.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa389679&position=3B/OF">Jake Smolinski</a>, a 22 year old OF for the Jacksonville Suns was drafted in the 2nd round out of high school by the Washington Nationals. He was traded to the Florida Marlins organization with Emilio Bonifacio for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham. Smolinski is a converted 2B/3B that flashed some decent athleticism in the games that I attended. He hit towards the bottom of the order, which is surprising for such a high draft pick, but nonetheless he put together many quality ABs and was 2-3 off of the previously mentioned prospect Chris Archer (see Pt. 2 below). This is Smolinski's first season in AA and he has played pretty well so far and has been able to draw more walks, even though he only is hitting .259. Overall, Smolinski looked like a pretty solid player and profiles as a 4th OF or maybe a 2nd-division starter type if he remains as a corner OF.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Other players of note that I watched were Montgomery CF John Shelby (very athletic, quick wrists, and solid raw power), Jacksonville 2B Jim Negrych (6th round draft pick in 2006, limited physical tools, but has been hitting well (from the left side) this year), Montgomery LHP Neil Schenk (25 year old with good velocity from left side, sharp slider, questionable command), and Jacksonville RHP Zach Simons (26 year old w/ pretty solid AA and AAA stats, throws from deceptive 3/4 arm angle and features a fastball with good arm-side run).</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Many of the players that I mentioned above may never play in the big leagues, but some may go on to have successful, long lasting careers. Scouting in general, but especially position players is more tedious than evaluating pitching prospects and I may be way off in my personal projections, but the players that do end up in the majors do so because they are able to adjust to obstacles that they are faced with. It remains to be seen whom, if any of the players that I was able see this past week, are able to adjust and fully develop into the kind of player that can be successful at the highest level of professional baseball.</span>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-77290694910139178982011-08-05T10:19:00.000-07:002011-08-05T11:22:40.735-07:00"Scouting" in the Southern League (Pt. 2--Pitchers)<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Like I mentioned in my last entry (Pt. 1) I only attended Games 1, 2, and 4 of the 5 game series. Game 1's starting pitchers, Jim Paduch for Montgomery and Joseph O'Gara of Jacksonville are not considered to be true prospects and their arsenal was nothing special as both featured average velocity on their fastballs (again without a working radar gun their true velocity is unknown) and spotty command. O'Gara only struck out one batter in 7 innings, while Paduch struck out 4 in six innings, but also struggled to put away batters and surrendered 4 BB. </span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> There did not appear to be many scouts in attendance for Game 1 because of the relatively unappealing pitching match-up, but Jhan Marinez (Jacksonville) did appear out of the bullpen in the eighth inning. Marinez, 22, is rated as the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12636">#7 prospect in the Marlins farm system by Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein</a>. Marinez's one inning featured a lead-off walk to the 9 hitter which was quickly followed by a wild pitch and an RBI single. He then settled down to record three straight outs, including a K to end the inning. Although the results were quite mixed, the process showed great promise as Marinez flashed a fastball with good velocity. Again, due to my limitations without a radar gun I can not put an exact figure on the pitch, but it was evident that the velocity was overpowering. Marinez struggled a bit with his command as evidenced by the BB and WP but I liked his make-up on the mound and his ability to work out of trouble (albeit self-imposed). Goldstein noted in the pre-season that he expected Marinez to start in AAA after spring training broke, yet Marinez has stayed in Jacksonville thus far this year. He has had a <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501697">pretty solid season</a> so far striking out 60 in 44.1 IP, but he still needs to fine-tune his command as he has also given up 36 BB. Overall, I came away pretty impressed with Marinez and the outing that I saw seems to be indicative of his season so far--overpowering stuff with a lack of command. I would expect Marinez to be called up to AAA sometime this year and he could also be a September call-up for the Marlins.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Like Jacksonville, Montgomery also used an overpowering RHP out of the bullpen after pulling their starter. <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=456713">Matt Bush</a>, 25, former 1st overall pick by the San Diego Padres in 2004 pitched 2 innings of relief work for the Biscuits. Drafted as a SS, Bush has resurrected his baseball career after being out of the game for a number of years. Bush pitched 13.2 innings last year in the GCL and Florida State League, but this year has been his first true test as a pitcher. Because of his age and relative inexperience as a pitcher, Bush was not featured on many prospect lists coming into the season. However, his outing in Game 1 was pretty impressive. Bush pitched 2 innings, surrendered 2 walks, yet struck out 4 and did not allow any hits or runs. He flashed an overpowering fastball that appeared to be in the mid-90s and had decent command of the pitch. His breaking ball was sharp and froze a couple of hitters for called third strikes, but his command of the pitch was spotty. Bush does not have the typical pitchers body, only standing at 5-9" but he has thick legs and a strong torso, along with a very strong arm, which allows him to create such great torque and pitch in the mid 90s. With some more seasoning and experience Bush may eventually find himself in a MLB bullpen in the future.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Game 2 of the series featured a prominent starting pitching prospect, as Chris Archer of Montgomery took the mound. Archer, 22, was a part of the package sent to the Rays by the Chicago Cubs this past offseason in the Matt Garza trade. Archer was rated as the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13013">#4 prospect </a>by Kevin Goldstein and <a href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/7/25/2291484/tampa-bay-rays-2011-top-20-pre-season-prospects-in-review">#5 prospect</a> by Minor League Ball's John Sickels in the pre-season. Thus far Archer has had a decent 2011 campaign in AA as he has 100 K in 113.1 IP, but has also allowed 65 BB and has 14 WP (via <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa326752&position=P">FanGraphs</a>). BP's Goldstein noted before the season that Archer's development would depend on his command as he has always had trouble throwing strikes consistency. Again, in Game 2 I sat down the right field line and the radar gun was not functioning so it was impossible to get an accurate reading of Archer's velocity, but Goldstein wrote that Archer sits around 92-94 and that his power slider can be un-hittable when its on. Archer was not at the top of his game when I saw him, but he was pretty impressive nontheless. His fastball overpowered a number of Suns hitters and his slider definitely had a sharp bite on it. However, his outing was typical of the reports as he did struggle some with command allowing 4 BB in 6 IP (although the umpire's strike zone was tight throughout the game).</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Archer was relieved by Marquis Fleming, a 24 year old righty drafted in the 24th round out of Cal State Stanislaus. Fleming has put up solid stats thus far, with 90 K in 63.2 innings (via <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa454927&position=P">FanGraphs)</a>. However, minor-league statistics are not always great indicators of true talent level because things such as age and experience vary by level. I got the opportunity to watch Fleming warm-up as I was situated near the visitor's bullpen. Fleming showed solid run and sink on his two-seam fastball and he was able to utilize this pitch to get out of trouble and induce a double play in the eight inning. He didn't have the strongest line of the night, and he may only be a middle-reliever type but I liked what I saw from Fleming and could envision him coming out of the bullpen as a middle-man in the majors at some point in his career.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> As I mentioned in Part 1, I was able to sit behind home plate in the scouting area for Game 4 and I am confident that I picked the best game of the series to do so. Whereas I had only seen a handful of scouts at Games 1 and 2, there were about 15 or so at Game 4 to see <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=517008">Alexander Colome</a> of Montgomery pitch. Colome, out of the Domincan Republic is the nephew of former Devil Ray (and apparent current Colorado Springs) reliever <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1198&position=P">Jesus Colome</a>. The start on Wednesday was only Colome's third of the season at the AA level. He had been pitching well in the Florida State League this year before his call-up, going 9-5 with a 3.66 ERA. Colome was rated as the<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13013"> #6 prospect in the Rays system</a> by Kevin Goldstein, who said that Colome offers a plus-plus fastball that sits at 93-95 and can touch 97. Goldstein further wrote that Colome has the potential to be a star-level rotation piece with plenty of strikeouts. Colome did not disappoint as he brought tremendous pure stuff to the table. </span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Mechanically, Colome throws with a very loose arm action and he generates a ton of power behind his slight, skinny frame through his burst off the rubber (For comparison his windup almost had a Pedro Martinez-like look to it). He had decent enough command of his fastball throughout the game, although in the middle innings (3rd and 4th) Colome seemed to lose some of his command and had to battle through some long at-bats. Like Kevin Goldstein wrote, Colome's fastball did indeed sit at 93-95 and hit 96 on a number of occasions. His curveball was sharp after using mainly his fastball in the first inning he put away two hitters with his power-curve (76-78 mph) in the second inning. His changeup had some good armside run to it and usually clocked in around 85-87 mph, but he did not throw it all that much (although throw a great one to Kyle Skipworth in the 6th inning). His slider/cutter usually registered at 87-90 mph, although he did throw a few slower (83-85 mph). The pitch was particularly effective to lefties down and in. Overall, Colome had a pretty solid evening as he pitched into the 7th inning, going 6.1 allowing 4 hits, 4 BB, 2 ER, and striking out 6. Like I said, Colome looked a bit lost in the 3rd and 4th innings and showed visible signs of frustration on the mound, but he was able to put it together and put together a solid 4th and 5th inning. Colome will undoubtedly need more time on the farm to work on the command of all of his pitches but his pure stuff does project well and if he continues to develop he could be a quality starter in the big leagues in a few years.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Colome's counterpart on Wednesday night was<a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=543141"> Bryan Evans</a>, a 14th round draft pick out of UC-Davis in 2008. Evans, 24, has spent the better part of the past two years in Florida State League and the Midwest League and is probably not projected to be a true prospect. His minor-league K/IP statistics are not all that impressive and his arsenal is not made up of typical swing-and-miss type stuff. However, I came away liking what I saw from Evans, even though there have been thousands of pitchers with similar stuff that have never sniffed the big leagues. Evans' delivery is a bit complicated and it appears as if when he releases the ball he is throwing across his body or is facing the hitter at an extreme angle. His arm angle is over-the-top and the best comparison that I can give is kind of a hybrid mix between Josh Collmenter and Jered Weaver. The scouts were clearly there to see Colome (even though Evans was also just recently called up to AA), as most put their radar guns down when Evans was on the mound. However, I was able to see from those that did keep the guns out that Evans' fastball sat at 85-90 mph, his slider clocked in around 81 mph, and his curve/slurve measured in at 74 mph. I did not get a good read on what the velocity was on his changeup, but the pitch did feature some arm-side run (although he did telegraph a few by slowing down his windup considerably). His fastball also featured some good arm-side run and he was able to sneak some in on right handed hitters. Evans' pure stuff was nowhere near as dominant as Colome's but his line was a bit better for the night as he went 6+ innings (walked first two guys in 7th) for the win, giving up 6 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, while striking out 6. Evans' future is nowhere near as bright as Colome's given his age and lack of velo, but his windup and pitching mechanics were deceptive enough to hitters that he was able to strike out 6 in 6 innings of work. Given that this was only his 3rd appearance and 1st start in AA, it remains to be seen if hitters will be able to adjust and exploit Evans' pedestrian stuff or if his pitchability and deception will allow him to succeed and climb the ladder of professional baseball.</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> In the forthcoming Pt. 3 (and final part of the series about the Montgomery-Jacksonville series) I will discuss some position players and briefly mention some relievers that I did not get a chance to get to in this entry.</span>Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1025588613632455006.post-38298996813630665622011-08-05T06:32:00.000-07:002011-08-05T06:32:59.279-07:00"Scouting" in the Southern League (Pt. 1--The Intro.) The <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/index.jsp?sid=t564">Jacksonville Suns</a> (AA Affiliate for the Florida Marlins) and the <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/clubs/ip_index.jsp?sid=milb&cid=t421">Montgomery Biscuits</a> (AA Affiliate for the Tampa Bay Rays) just finished a 5 game series last night. As a part of my interest in becoming more acquainted with the scouting world I attended Games 1, 2, and 4 of the series. The Suns won Games 1 and 4 by scores of 3-2 and 6-2, while Montgomery took game 2 by the score of 9-3. However, any scout (or wannabe scout such as myself) will be quick to note that the results of any minor-league competition are far less important than the process that individual players show while at the plate, in the field, or on the mound. Similarly, the responsibilities of managers and assistant coaches at the minor-league levels are different than those of say Bruce Bochy, as minor-league coaches are more concerned with cultivating players' development (physical, mental, emotional) and preparing players for the rigors of playing high-quality professional baseball day in and day out. One thing that stood out to me in particular was the willingness of managers to let pitchers pitch through trouble. In all three of the games that I attended I noticed that the managers for both teams would tend let their relievers finish out innings regardless of batter-handedness and if the pitcher had been struggling with command. This rarely happens in MLB, unless the game is a blow out, but again these decisions show that managers are not as concerned with winning as they are about pitchers learning to get themselves out of trouble and face all kinds of hitters. Furthermore, such decisions allow scouts and player development personnel to evaluate and try to predict whether or not certain pitchers will cut it against RH or LH batters at the major-league level. <br />
Although I tried to view these games as a scout would I must make note of the fact that I am not a scout. I'm sure people would be quick to tell me that I have little idea about true talent evaluation as I am only a blogger with 14 twitter followers, and for the most part they would be correct. However, I attended these games in order to become more accustomed to scouting a minor-league game and am only writing this blog to explain my observations and develop my scouting acumen.<br />
I am usually very observant and even when I attended games as a "fan" I was constantly making observations about players, situations, talent level, etc., but attending the game as a "scout" has a whole different feel about it as one has to be constantly tuned in to every minute detail.In Games 1 and 2 of the series I sat down the RF line near the visitors bullpen. They were quality seats from a fan perspective as I was pretty close to the action, but it was difficult to scout position players while they were in the field, especially for an amateur like myself. Additionally, the radar gun at the stadium was not active so I could not get an entirely accurate assessment of pitch velocity. However, I still feel that I was able gain some valuable insight on players from both squads despite these minor limitations. Furthermore, towards the end of Game 2 I was able to view the last few innings from behind home plate so I was able to get a little better feel for what I was seeing. In Game 4 I decided to sit behind home-plate in a section where it was nearly only scouts. While at games 1 and 2 I noticed that there were very few scouts in attendance, but in Game 4 there were quite a bit more as they were on hand to see a solid pitching prospect for the MTG Biscuits perform in one of his first appearances at the AA level. Sitting behind home-plate in the scouting section made things a bit easier as I was able to peek at their radar guns and see the depth and movement of breaking pitches. <br />
This entry was just an introduction (see title) as I just wanted to provide some insight into the games that I attended and explain the vantage points that I had for each game. As I have noted throughout, I am not a true scout and it would be foolish of me to play one at this point. Therefore in my next entry (the aptly named Pt. 2), in which I actually provide some observations on Suns and Biscuits players, I am going to do my best to avoid applying labels and grades to prospects (ex: plus arm or C+ prospect). I will also make note of works of established writers/scouts such as<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/kevin_goldstein/"> Kevin Goldstein,</a> <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/jason_parks/">Jason Parks</a>, and <a href="http://www.minorleagueball.com/">John Sickels</a> to provide some background information and professional evaluation of "tools" in general and specific players.Drewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11758360329611924314noreply@blogger.com0