3Update

With graduate school and numerous different work obligations it has been difficult for me to keep up with a lot of other things, including this blog.  I’ve been trying pretty hard to include new notes and observations on many college players that I’ve been fortunate enough to see the last couple of months, but it has not worked out as well as I had hoped. 

Within the next few weeks I will have significantly more free time as spring semester winds down and there is a dead period before summer school starts back up.  I am going to include more first-hand observations from various FSU games, including the FSU-Miami series (You can find my write up of Game 1 here, for CollegeBaseballInsider, a website which I currently intern for). 

However, in this entry I am going to focus on looking back on a handful of minor-league players that I observed last year and checking in to see how they are performing today.  Furthermore, this exercise should help me to recognize what characteristics I need to improve on in order to further cultivate my scouting skills.  

One of the players that caught my eye last year was Tim Beckham, who I saw while playing for AA Montgomery.  Here is what I wrote upon seeing Beckham playing against the Jacksonville Suns last season:

  Kevin Goldstein rated Beckham as the Rays' 18th best prospect coming into the season and John Sickels gave Beckham a C+ grade before opening day.  By both accounts Beckham's 2011 was going to largely be a make-or-break type of year. So far this season his numbers have been pretty solid and after watching him for three games I can confidently say that he was the best position player on the field for either team.  Beckham has quick wrists at the plate and shows some pop in his bat.  He looked to have a solid approach and was quick to exploit pitchers who left balls over the plate or attacked him early in the count with fastballs.  He flashed good opposite field power as he took the first pitch that he saw from Bryan Evans (a fastball) to the right center field gap for a double. He also hit a number of other balls hard throughout the series that resulted in outs. Some of Beckham's detractors point to his fielding and after seeing him firsthand they do have a point.  Beckham showed solid range on a couple of plays to his left, but he also committed one throwing error and was bailed out by his first baseman on another.  Both plays were relatively routine groundballs, but Beckham sat back and gave himself an in between hop.  His rhythm was thrown off which altered his throws.  It appears as if he has the athleticism to play shortstop, but he needs to make the plays easier for himself and keep his concentration in the field if he is to stay at the position (there is some thought that he will eventually have to move to 3rd base).

And an update from a couple of weeks later, as Beckham had been promoted to AAA:

Montgomery SS Tim Beckham who was called up to AAA Durham over a week ago has continued to hit well at the next level as he has hit .291 with 3 HR in 55 AB.

Beckham finished the 2011 season at AAA Durham, playing 24 games for the Bulls, and producing a .255/.282/.462 slash.  He hit .275/.339/.395 in 107 games at Montgomery.  This season Beckham started the year off at AAA Durham, but has gotten off to a slow start.  Through 13 games Beckham is hitting .204/.290/.278 without any home runs.  Unfortunately, milb.com and fangraphs.com do not list fielding statistics (although they are misleading anyway) so I cannot truly weigh in on his defense this year.  Regardless, Beckham has clearly gotten to a rough start offensively, but it is extremely early into the 2012 campaign, and I believe that Beckham will play in the big leagues, probably as soon as this season.  He will not end up being a superstar or All-Star like everybody hopes that former No. 1 picks are, but I think that he can be a 50 hitter (.250-.270) with gap power and run into 10-15 home runs if given the opportunity to play an entire season.  I also believe that Beckham can stick at shortstop, although his defense at the position may only ever be average at best.

Another Montgomery Biscuit that I wrote about, Kyeong Kang has also been struggling.  He only has 28 at bats through 11 games thus far and has been splitting time with others in the outfield.  I’m not sure if Kang also has been dealing with injuries but his performance in 2012 has not been stellar.  Here is what I wrote about him last year:

Kyeong Kang (LF/RF) for Montgomery, age 23, was a 15th round draft pick out of a Georgia high school. The native South Korean was not listed in the Top 20 pre-season lists of TB prospects by Goldstein or Sickels, but he did impress me throughout the series. Kang played for the World Team in the 2009 Futures Game, but had a poor 2010 season in the High-A Florida State League for Charlotte.  2011 has been a bounce back year for Kang as he currently sports an OBP of .395.  Again, minor-league statistics can sometimes be misleading and do not always tell the whole story, but I came away thinking that Kang may have a bright future.  He showed a good approach at the plate, was able to fight off tough pitches with two strikes, and hit a number of balls solidly.  Kang's wrists were not as quick as Beckham's and his swing did appear to be a bit long.  Kang also has questionable athleticism and his power numbers are not ideal for a corner outfielder.  However, Kang did show off a very strong and accurate arm as he had two outfield assists in the three games that I was able to attend.  I enjoyed watching Kang play and think that he could profile as a second division starter or a 4th OF type at the MLB level.

Kang cooled down a bit since I saw him in August, and finished with a slash line of .263/.384/.437 and 11 HR and 14 2B in 316 AB.  I did note that Kang’s swing was a bit long and not as quick as Beckham’s.  Similarly, I identified that his athleticism and power (lack thereof) would limit his future potential as a corner outfielder.  Currently Kang has a slash line of .107/.188/.321 with 2 HR in his 28 AB.  Clearly, Kang is struggling mightily right now, but again, it is early in the season and he has been splitting time.  However, after taking a look at the roster, I think that Kang should be in line for more playing time going forward (which leads me to believe he has been battling injury) as the other outfielders currently listed are Brad Coon (29 years old), Emeel Salem (27 years old), and Isaias Velasquez (23 years old).  Velasquez is the only other outfielder with a true potential, so I expect Kang to get plenty of AB going forward.  With that being said, I still do not think that his ceiling, of a 4^th OF, has not changed and his assignment to repeat AA as 24 year-old probably reflects this as well.  As we saw with Beckham (and others such as Alex Torres, Matt Moore, etc.,) the Rays are not shy about having their prospects compete at AAA before bringing them up so it appears as if they think that Kang is still at least one year away from big league consideration. He may eventually be able to sneak his way into a starting job given an injury or with a second-division type of club, but he does not have the power yet to warrant a full-time gig. 

I also saw Shawn O’Malley play for the Montgomery Biscuits in their series vs. the Jacksonville Suns. Here is what I had to say about O’Malley last August:

 Shawn O'Malley is a 23 year old second baseman for Montgomery that was drafted in the 5th round out of his high school in Washington state.  O'Malley is agood athlete as he was first-team all-state as a wide receiver, defensive back, and kick returner.  Like Kang, O'Malley was not listed on Goldstein or Sickels top prospect lists, and in all honesty he does not warrant a spot on a top prospect list.  O'Malley has very little power (2 career minor league homeruns in 1678 plate appearances (via FanGraphs) which limits his value drastically.  However, in my mind O'Malley is still a fine player.  He is a switch hitter that shows quick hands from both sides of the plate and has solid speed.  He also had a tendency to work the count well and provide some quality ABs.  O'Malley is athletic and he would provide an organization more value if he could play SS, but it appeared that he did not have the necessary skill set to do so.  He looked good at second base and made a very nice play to his right which highlighted his range, but did not appear to translate well to a move across the diamond.  Overall, O'Malley is a fine, pesky player that is a joy to watch but he will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to reach the majors.

O’Malley finished 2011 in Montgomery and hit .276/.369/.344 with 8 2B, 1 HR, and 24 SB.  O’Malley broke spring training with AAA Durham.  Through 11 games O’Malley has 35 AB and is hitting .171/.262/.257 with 1 HR.  Clearly O’Malley, like the other players I’ve covered so far, has struggled.  One could be encouraged that O’Malley broke camp in AAA, a step up from last year’s assignment, but as I noted last year “he will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to reach the majors.” O’Malley does not really profile as an everyday anything given his lack of power, but he has struggled in the past and overcome adversity.  In 2010 he only hit .181 in 144 AB at Montgomery, but he was able to improve on that by almost .100 points one year later.  If O’Malley is able to rebound from a poor start as he has done in the past he may have an outside shot to serve as a utility/reserve player for an MLB club.

While I have been discussing the progress or lack thereof of past Montgomery position players, some Biscuit pitchers that I examined are also encountering some early adversity.

First, Alex Colome.  Here is what I wrote about Colome last August:

Colome was rated as the #6 prospect in the Rays system by Kevin Goldstein, who said that Colome offers a plus-plus fastball that sits at 93-95 and can touch 97.  Goldstein further wrote that Colome has the potential to be a star-level rotation piece with plenty of strikeouts.  Colome did not disappoint as he brought tremendous pure stuff to the table.
       
      Mechanically, Colome throws with a very loose arm action and he generates a ton of power behind his slight, skinny frame through his burst off the rubber (For comparison his windup almost had a Pedro Martinez-like look to it).  He had decent enough command of his fastball throughout the game, although in the middle innings (3rd and 4th) Colome seemed to lose some of his command and had to battle through some long at-bats.  Like Kevin Goldstein wrote, Colome's fastball did indeed sit at 93-95 and hit 96 on a number of occasions.  His curveball was sharp after using mainly his fastball in the first inning he put away two hitters with his power-curve (76-78 mph) in the second inning.  His changeup had some good armside run to it and usually clocked in around 85-87 mph, but he did not throw it all that much (although throw a great one to Kyle Skipworth in the 6th inning).  His slider/cutter usually registered at 87-90 mph, although he did throw a few slower (83-85 mph). The pitch was particularly effective to lefties down and in.  Overall, Colome had a pretty solid evening as he pitched into the 7th inning, going 6.1 allowing 4 hits, 4 BB, 2 ER, and striking out 6.  Like I said, Colome looked a bit lost in the 3rd and 4th innings and showed visible signs of frustration on the mound, but he was able to put it together and put together a solid 4th and 5th inning.  Colome will undoubtedly need more time on the farm to work on the command of all of his pitches but his pure stuff does project well and if he continues to develop he could be a quality starter in the big leagues in a few years.

The above notes were from Colome’s second AA start of the season, as he started 2011 in the Florida State League.  He finished the season with Montgomery and finished 3-4 with a 4.15 ERA but only 31 K in 52 IP.  His strikeout rate dropped significantly from A to AA, but the early results from 2012 show that Colome can still miss bats (and given his fastball velocity and sharp power curve he should be).  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein had Colome rated as the Rays #5 prospect coming into the year, and although I am very familiar with the entire system I think that Colome’s potential definitely warrants such a rating.  Thus far Colome has made two starts, one good and one not so good.  He is 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA and has stuck out 10 through eight innings of work.  Obviously, eight innings through two starts is not a particularly encouraging statistic, but even the best of the best have a bad outing.  Colome is 24, which is a bit older for a true top-level prospect, but as he grows more accustomed to AA talent he should be able to harness his ability and be successful.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein said of Colome in his Rays preview:

“The Bad: Colome's delivery is far from easy, and he has problems throwing strikes. His secondary pitches come and go, and his breaking ball can get slurvy. A large number of scouts think he projects far better in a late-innings bullpen role.”

I think that Colome could be very effective as a reliever and be ready as soon as this year if the Rays felt that this route was necessary.  However, I still think that with another full season of refinement Colome projects to be a solid mid-rotation option for a major league team.

I also got the chance to watch SP Chris Archer pitch against the Suns.  Here are my notes from last year:

Game 2 of the series featured a prominent starting pitching prospect, as Chris Archer of Montgomery took the mound. Archer, 22, was a part of the package sent to the Rays by the Chicago Cubs this past offseason in the Matt Garza trade.  Archer was rated as the #4 prospect by Kevin Goldstein and #5 prospect by Minor League Ball's John Sickels in the pre-season.  Thus far Archer has had a decent 2011 campaign in AA as he has 100 K in 113.1 IP, but has also allowed 65 BB and has 14 WP (via FanGraphs).  BP's Goldstein noted before the season that Archer's development would depend on his command as he has always had trouble throwing strikes consistency.  Again, in Game 2 I sat down the right field line and the radar gun was not functioning so it was impossible to get an accurate reading of Archer's velocity, but Goldstein wrote that Archer sits around 92-94 and that his power slider can be un-hittable when its on. Archer was not at the top of his game when I saw him, but he was pretty impressive nontheless. His fastball overpowered a number of Suns hitters and his slider definitely had a sharp bite on it.  However, his outing was typical of the reports as he did struggle some with command allowing 4 BB in 6 IP (although the umpire's strike zone was tight throughout the game).

Archer was promoted to AAA Durham late in the season and made two starts there.  He finished 2011 with a combined line of 9-7, 4.09 ERA, and 130 K in 147 IP.  However, Archer also walked 86 batters, and I witnessed Archer’s command issues firsthand.  This season, Kevin Goldstein rated Archer as the Rays’ #8 prospect and he noted that Archer’s regressed from his 2010 season.  He pitched very well in his two starts at AAA Durham in 2011, but thus far Archer has run into some early problems.  Through 3 starts Archer is 1-2 with a 9.95 ERA and 13 BB in 12.2 IP.  The control issue is something that will definitely be monitored closely by the Rays’ front office.  Again, in the start that I witnessed last year Archer was overpowering and had a devastating slider.  However, unless he is able to regain his composure and find the strike zone more consistently, Archer will most likely end up as a late-inning bullpen arm.  While this is not the end of the world, I’m sure that the Rays would prefer if Archer could develop as a starter.  With an overabundance of starting pitching at the MLB level, and Archer still only 23 years old, Tampa Bay may be content to wait and see how Archer develops this season before bringing him up to the show.

A Montgomery relief pitcher that I liked was Marquis Fleming.  Here is what I wrote about Fleming:

Archer was relieved by Marquis Fleming, a 24 year old righty drafted in the 24th round out of Cal State Stanislaus.  Fleming has put up solid stats thus far, with 90 K in 63.2 innings (via FanGraphs).  However, minor-league statistics are not always great indicators of true talent level because things such as age and experience vary by level.  I got the opportunity to watch Fleming warm-up as I was situated near the visitor's bullpen.  Fleming showed solid run and sink on his two-seam fastball and he was able to utilize this pitch to get out of trouble and induce a double play in the eighth inning.  He didn't have the strongest line of the night, and he may only be a middle-reliever type but I liked what I saw from Fleming and could envision him coming out of the bullpen as a middle-man in the majors at some point in his career.

  He finished 2011 with a 5-4 record, 3.48 ERA, and 105 K in 82.2 IP.  Unfortunately I did not have a radar gun and was sitting down the first base line during this game, but I hope to see Fleming pitch again this season.  Fleming had a solid spring and I believe that there was some discussion about Fleming breaking camp with the Rays, but he started off 2012 in AAA Durham.  Thus far Fleming has struggled to make the adjustment to AAA and has allowed 12 ER, 14 H, and 9 BB in only 11 innings.  Again, it is early in the season and Fleming may still be getting used to pitching in AAA.  Still, as I said in my notebook last season, Fleming’s ceiling is probably that of a middle-reliever as I do not think that he is overpowering enough to be a closer, but here is a reason why you should root for him: http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080617/SPORTS/806170336

Finally, (for now) Matt Bush.  Here is what I wrote about the former No. 1 pick last season:

Like Jacksonville, Montgomery also used an overpowering RHP out of the bullpen after pulling their starter.  Matt Bush, 25, former 1st overall pick by the San Diego Padres in 2004 pitched 2 innings of relief work for the Biscuits. Drafted as a SS, Bush has resurrected his baseball career after being out of the game for a number of years.  Bush pitched 13.2 innings last year in the GCL and Florida State League, but this year has been his first true test as a pitcher.  Because of his age and relative inexperience as a pitcher, Bush was not featured on many prospect lists coming into the season.  However, his outing in Game 1 was pretty impressive. Bush pitched 2 innings, surrendered 2 walks, yet struck out 4 and did not allow any hits or runs.  He flashed an overpowering fastball that appeared to be in the mid-90s and had decent command of the pitch.  His breaking ball was sharp and froze a couple of hitters for called third strikes, but his command of the pitch was spotty.  Bush does not have the typical pitchers body, only standing at 5-9" but he has thick legs and a strong torso, along with a very strong arm, which allows him to create such great torque and pitch in the mid-90s.  With some more seasoning and experience Bush may eventually find himself in a MLB bullpen in the future.

Bush finished 2011 in Montgomery, going 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA and an impressive 77 K in 50.1 IP.  While Bush did not enter 2011 on many people’s radar he pitched well enough to be in the conversation for a big-league roster spot.  Unfortunately, Bush’s off-field decisions have likely ended his attempt to play in the big leagues.  Bush had previously struggled with alcohol and drugs while in the Padres organization, and this year, during Spring Training Bush borrowed a teammate’s vehicle on an off-day and was involved in a nasty hit-and-run DUI incident that still has him sitting in a jail cell (For more read this tremendous article by Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports).  I (along with many others) was rooting for Matt Bush, but regrettably his demons caught up with him and we will not be able to witness a career revival reminiscent of Josh Hamilton.  Hopefully, the accident victim is able to fully recover and Bush is able to find a happy and safe balance in life.