After being picked 23rd
overall in the 2012 MLB First-Year Player Draft, Florida State’s James Ramsey
agreed to terms with the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this week. Many
well-respected baseball writers were not thrilled with St. Louis’ pick of
Ramsey, feeling that the 23rd overall spot was a bit of a reach for
a player that most considered to be a sandwich-round or 2nd round
type of talent. However, the Cardinals
also selected Texas A&M’s Michael Wacha, considered to be a difficult sign,
in the first round so many believed that St. Louis selected Ramsey as a safe,
affordable option. However, while it was
generally thought that the Cardinals and Ramsey would agree to a deal
well-below the assigned slot value for the 23rd overall pick ($1.775
million), Baseball America’s Jim Callis reported that the two sides agreed to
terms on a bonus worth around $1.6 million.
As a college senior, Ramsey had little leverage in the contract
negotiations, so some people may wonder why St. Louis offered so much money for
a player that most considered to be a reach.
On MLB Network’s coverage of the draft
a few weeks ago, Peter Gammons mentioned that Ramsey is an “area scout”,
explaining that while Ramsey’s pure physical tools won’t jump off the board,
people that are able to see him play consistently (like area scouts) will
recognize that he is a legitimate prospect.
I had the pleasure of watching Ramsey play many games this season for
Florida State, and after seeing him day in and day out I truly think that he is
a first-round type of talent. It
appears as if the St. Louis Cardinals brass and scouting/development team
similarly value Ramsey, which is why they were willing to take him earlier than
projected and still offer a bonus within spitting distance of the assigned
value.
(Too) Much was made of Ramsey’s makeup
and leadership qualities on MLB Network’s draft coverage, and while he does
appear to be a tremendous person with an exceptional work ethic and dedication
to the game, I think that many of his physical attributes were overlooked. Ramsey is not a physically imposing figure by
any stretch of the imagination, as he is listed at 6’0 and 190 pounds, but is
probably closer to 5’10” or 5’11”. He
does not possess great speed, but throughout the season he consistently clocked
4.0 or 4.1 times from home to first, which generally profiles as plus (60)
speed on the scouting scale. However,
given Ramsey’s hard-nosed style of play, his “true” speed is probably
solid-average (55). Defensively, Ramsey
features a strong and accurate arm. In
2011, as a junior, Ramsey played right field and finished the season with three
outfield assists. This past season
Ramsey moved over to center field, and he finished the season with four
assists. While it can be problematic to
assign a judge a player’s defensive capabilities based off of statistics or
just a couple of games, I am confident in assigning Ramsey a solid-average (55)
to average (50) arm.
Ramsey, like many Florida State
Seminoles, is extremely patient and confident at the plate. He has shown a propensity to work deep into
counts and is comfortable hitting behind in the count, if necessary. Furthermore, Ramsey showed the ability to
make in-game and in-AB adjustments while dealing with the comparatively wide
and inconsistent NCAA strike zone. He
likes to let the ball get deep on him and uses the entire field effectively, as
he peppered the left-center field gap throughout the year. However, he also features strong, quick
wrists and has flashed the ability to turn on inside pitches and handle
solid-average and plus velocity.
However, the only real question that I have with Ramsey is his ability
to handle left-handed velocity. Many LHP
with plus velocity are picked high in the MLB draft out of high school and do
not step foot on a college campus, and I cannot remember Ramsey hitting against
many left-handed pitchers with 92 MPH+ velocity. Furthermore, Ramsey appeared to be a bit susceptible
to velocity (from RHP and LHP) right underneath his hands, which will be
something that he will have to adjust to in order to progress through the minor
leagues. With all of that being said,
most, if not all, players struggle with handling plus velocity from same-sided
pitchers, so at this point it does not seem to be much of a concern. Overall, Ramsey had an extremely productive
college career, and I think that he has the physical skills, coordination, and
approach to be an average (50; .270) to plus (60; .300) hitter at the MLB level
if he reaches his ceiling.
As I mentioned earlier, Ramsey is
not a physically imposing figure, but he is athletic, possesses a strong core,
and is able to create some torque with his swing mechanics. He will never be a guy that projects to hit
30+ homeruns at the major league level, but Ramsey did show the ability a
charge into the ball after the well-documented bat changes that the NCAA
implemented, as he hit 10 homers as a junior in 2011 and 13 this past season. Ramsey also had a solid showing in the Cape
Cod League in the Summer of 2011, hitting an impressive nine home runs in 131
AB using wood bats against some of the top college pitching. Regardless, Ramsey still appears to be a more
a gap-to-gap, doubles-type hitter that will pepper in home runs. As a result, Ramsey’s power projects to be “below
average” (40 grade) to “fringe-average” (45-50 grade) meaning that he should be
expected (if he reaches his ceiling) to hit between 14 and 25 homeruns in a
full season’s worth of at-bats.
Therefore, Ramsey’s value at the
major-league level will be heavily reliant on his ability to continue playing
center field. The requirements of a
corner outfielder’s bat are far more taxing than that of a center fielder, as
the typical right/left fielder is generally expected to provide significant
power to the lineup. Given Ramsey’s
relatively “limited” power projection, it is imperative that he sticks in CF in
order to consistently contribute at a high-level in the majors. Defense is hard to read because a position
player may not get many opportunities to field balls in play. Luckily, I was able to watch Ramsey play
throughout the year, so I feel that I was able to get a decent feel for his
abilities. I do think that he be serviceable
in center field. Ramsey has solid
instincts a quick first step, makes quick reads, and while he is not a burner,
his solid-average speed is good enough to help him get to balls in the
gap. In a few years, Ramsey be forced to
change positions, but I asked a scout for the Seattle Mariners what he thought
about Ramsey’s defensive prospects and he said that he liked what he saw from
him, so it appears as if Ramsey may be able to patrol CF for the near future.
Overall, I was extremely pleased to
see James Ramsey get picked in the first round, and even more pleased to see
that the Cardinals value his play so highly.
While he may not be a tools freak and does not feature the upside of
some of the other first-round picks, I still believe he is a first round talent
that will contribute at the major league level, which is something that cannot
be said for many other former, current, and future prospects.
