Portrait: Robert Benincasa

Player:  Robert Benincasa

Position: RP

Throws: Right

Hometown/HS: Tampa, FL/Armwood HS

Height/Weight: 6-2, 195

Drafted: 7th round and 234^th overall pick of the Washington Nationals (2012)

Background/Stats: Benincasa was drafted in the 33^rd round (and the 1000^th overall pick) of the 2009 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. He earned first team All-State honors during his time at Armwood High School in Tampa, and elected to attend Florida State University rather than sign with Toronto.  As a freshman, in 2010 Benincasa was shuttled between the bullpen and starting rotation, making a few starts mid-week for the Seminoles. In 2011 longtime FSU manager showed a bit more confidence in Benincasa, utilizing the righthander in mid-relief and setup situations. Benincasa went 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA and 24 K in 32.2 IP over 20 appearances.  Benincasa’s 2012 was by far his most successful season, as he truly came into his own as the Seminoles closer. He went 4-2, 1.32 ERA with 16 saves and racked up 58 strikeouts (to only 7 walks) in 41 innings and helped Florida State advance to the College World Series. The Washington Nationals selected Benincasa with the 234^th overall pick, and according to Baseball America he signed for $145,000.

Firsthand Observations: Even as a longtime Seminole fan, I knew very little about Benincasa before the 2012 season.  I had seen him pitch in a few games on television with mixed results, but those that I talked to were pretty high on his potential and arsenal.  Fortunately, I was able to see Benincasa pitch many times over the course of the spring and summer.  Listed at 6-2, 195, Benincasa has a nice tall frame and thick legs. Unlike many relievers, Benincasa works from a full windup when runners are not on base, and his movements in the windup are clean, balanced, and athletic. He does a fine job of staying overtop of his body throughout his delivery and features solid posture, but his release point and arm angles can be a bit inconsistent, particularly with offspeed pitches. However, since Benincasa will almost certainly be used exclusively as a reliever “tipping” his pitches should not be too much of an issue, as the release point inconsistency is relatively miniscule.  Benincasa offers a true three-piece mix, as his fastball typically works between 90 and 93 miles per hour. The pitch features some late arm-side run, and Benincasa showed solid command, particularly glove-side.  His primary offspeed pitch of choice is his slider, a sharp 78-82 mph offering that has late two-plane depth. Benincasa proved to be particularly adroit at commanding the slider throughout FSU’s 2012 season, and it appears as if he was able to continue the trend with the Auburn Doubledays of the NYPL, as the righthander only surrendered 3 walks in his 23.1 summer innings.  Finally, Benincasa also showed a decent feel for a low 80’s changeup, but he rarely needed to utilize the pitch at the collegiate level.

Going Forward: After dominating in 23.1 innings in the short-season NYPL (2-0, 3.09 ERA, 32 K, 27 H, 3 BB) like a college arm should, I would expect Benincasa to break 2013 with Hagerstown, Washington’s Low-A club, but I also would not be surprised to see him start the year with their High-A club in Potomac. The entire package is nothing too sexy—the fastball is solid-average, the slider a solid pitch and I could argue for a plus grade, while the changeup is currently fringe-average with room for further development.  He probably will not end up being an impact arm at the MLB level, but I would be surprised if, health permitting, Benincasa is not a setup man or middle reliever in the big leagues.

Etc.: See this excellent YouTube video by Jeff Reese/Bullpen Banter in order to form your own opinions.

Portrait: Phillies 3B Maikel Franco

Player: Maikel Franco

Position: 3B

Listed Height/Weight: 6-1, 180

Bats/Throws: R/R

Hometown: Azua, Dominican Republic

Acquired: Signed by the Phillies on January 13, 2010

Background/Stats: Lauded for his power potential, Franco garnered a $100,000 signing bonus from the Philadelphia Phillies in January 2010.  According to Baseball America, many teams were scared away after Franco turned in an abhorrent 7.7 second 60-yard dash time, but well-respected international supervisor Sal Agostinelli saw past the poor foot speed and believed in Franco’s other tools and potential. In 2010, Franco reported to the Phillies’ Gulf Coast League team in Clearwater and hit .222/.292/.330 in 194 at-bats as a 17-year-old.  In 2011, the Phillies sent Franco to Williamsport, their short-season affiliate in the New York-Penn League before a brief stint with their full-season affiliate in the South Atlantic League, the Lakewood Blue Claws. Franco only managed a meager .123/149/.200 in just 65 at-bats with Lakewood, and he was reassigned to Williamsport, where he finished the 2011 season.  While Franco’s struggles in Low-A were to be expected given his youth and inexperience (only 18 at the time), the results at Williamsport painted a much prettier portrait of the player. Franco hit .287/.367/.411 in 202 at-bats for the club. In 2012, Franco broke the spring with the Lakewood Blue Claws, as the Phillies felt that he would be able to handle the transition to full-season ball in the South Atlantic League.  Statistically speaking Franco’s 2012 was a tremendous success. He spent the majority of the season as a 19-year-old in a league in which the average (median) age is 22 and hit .280/.336/.439 and began to tap into some of his power with 32 2B and 14 HR.  However, it was truly a tale of two halves, as Franco hit .207/.269/.338 before the Sally All-Star Break and a whopping .346/.395/.530 after the break.

Clearly, Franco had a breakthrough second-half and his late season surge will probably allow the Phillies to start him in High-A next season.  With that being said, I was able to see Franco in game action during my time in North Carolina and the youngster clearly still has issues that need addressing.

Firsthand Observations: I had the opportunity to see Franco and the Lakewood Blue Claws play a doubleheader against the Hickory Crawdads while on assignment for my internship with Baseball America. As I mentioned above, Franco really came into his own during the second half of the season, and given the fact that I watched Franco play on July 22^nd (post All-Star break), one would expect Franco to have put on a show. I mean he finished the month with a .327/.389/.496 line.  However, my fellow intern and I both came away from the two games unimpressed with Franco.  Obviously, it would be foolish to draw too much from one day’s worth of game action, but there were some red flags.

First, was the body. Now, Franco is not a “bad-body” type of player, but he looked heavier than his listed 180 pounds (I’d say about 190-195) with some baby fat.  His 6-foot-1 frame leaves little room for further projection.  He also looked a bit sloppy in the field with his actions, struggling to field balls cleanly and explode into a good throwing position.  All in all, he looked very sluggish and disinterested in the field.  One positive, however, is his arm strength which would easily grade out at plus (60) and perhaps plus-plus (70).

As I mentioned in the background section, Franco is clearly not a threat on the basepaths.  Unfortunately, I either did not either clock his home-first splits or forgot to record them, as I don’t have anything on his foot-speed in my notes.  Regardless, one should safely be able to assume that his speed is below-average at best.

Third basemen and any corner position player make their living with the lumber. Franco’s strong showing in 2012 as a 19-year-old should not be discredited. Obviously he was able to adjust to the environment and level of pitching in the second half to put up some solid numbers.  However, in the two games that I saw him, Franco went 1-for-6 with 2 K, and I can’t remember him barreling a ball.  While the results weren’t particularly impressive, I was also not a fan of the process.  I felt that Franco started with his hands to close to his head and body.  As the pitcher got into his windup and prepared to release the ball, Franco began a lengthy load process in which his hands went down, up, and down again.  All of this movement and noise led to an extremely lengthy swing. One could see the potential for outlandish power if solid contact were made, but the elongated swing path really seemed to hinder any chance for barreling half-way decent pitches.  Over the course of the double header Franco was caught out front-footed numerous times and he did not show the ability to adequately diagnose breaking pitches out of the hand.

Far too many times I feel that people try to isolate a flaw within the hitting process. It is easy and convenient to say that X causes Y, and I am tempted to trace Franco’s problems with his setup and noisy trigger.  However, it should be remembered that I only saw Franco in six at-bats.  Perhaps he was just feeling the grind from playing every day in his first full season and was lackadaisical with his attention to detail.  Maybe he was not prepared to play because of the weather forecast (was supposed to rain yet again) or was not particularly thrilled of the idea of playing a double header in 95 degree heat. 

Going Forward: Franco will most likely begin the 2013 season in the Florida State League, where I hope to be able see him again.  The power potential is impressive, but I’m not sure how much it will play at the next level given his current propensity to get pull-happy, front-footed, and be lengthy in his swing. If there is one thing that did surprise me in going back to do research for this portrait, it is that Franco only struck out in 14.4% of his plate appearances. Given what I saw I was expecting it to be much higher.  With that being said, while the results/statistics from his 2012 campaign are encouraging, I personally would not be willing to bet on a lengthy MLB career (feel free to bash me in the comments). However, since he is so young, many of his issues and flaws can still be addressed over the coming two or three years, and it will be interesting to see how Franco adjusts to quality breaking balls.

I'm Back?!?!

Hello? It has been two and a half months since my last post and I don’t have much of an excuse for my lack of updates/profiles. While I was interning at Baseball America I had the opportunity to see many minor league games in the Durham/Raleigh/Burlington area. I had meant to keep writing and updating the blog during my free time, but too often I would come home from a game or the Baseball America offices and just veg out and watch Netflix (Tim Riggins is my hero). 

Luckily, I kept notes upon notes upon notes on players that I saw, and I promised myself that I would begin writing down my observations when I had time. Now, after a week of “acclimating myself” back home, and fully removed from my internship with BA, I’m up to the task.  Hopefully, given my newfound abundance of leisure time, I will be posting something every (week)day for the foreseeable future.

Today, instead of starting out with a player that I saw over the summer, I will offer up a portrait of somebody I this past spring in Tallahassee—former Florida State and current Tigers 2B Devon Travis.  As a lifelong Seminole fan, even as a young pup growing up in New Jersey, I had been able to catch a few FSU games on ESPNU and in the CWS the past few years, and I liked what I saw from Travis.  But having seen him firsthand circa 20 times this spring, I really fell in love with his game (even though I tend to wax poetic about little second basemen).

Player: Devon Travis

Position: 2B

Bats/Throws: R/R

Hometown/HS: Wellington , Florida/Palm Beach Central HS

Drafted: 13^th round and 424^th overall pick by the Detroit Tigers

Background/Stats: Undrafted out of high school, Travis earned first-team all-state honors as a senior at Palm Beach Central High School, but profiled best as a college player given his relative lack of loud tools. Upon enrolling in Florida State, Travis quickly established himself and started 46 games as a true freshman in 2010. He hit .276/.331/.436 and was 5-6 in SB attempts in his first collegiate action. As a sophomore in 2011, with the new BBCOR bats that limited offensive production nationwide, Travis improved his line to .329/.455/.519 and was 5-10 in SB attempts.

Firsthand Observations: Upon first glance Travis does not stand out. Listed a 5’9 and 183 pounds, Travis has thick legs, a squat frame, and is clearly maxed out physically with no room for projection.  Additionally, after a couple of solid collegiate seasons in 2010 and 2011, Travis underwent knee surgery so going into 2012 there were significant questions about his speed and lateral quickness. 

However, throughout the 2012 season, Travis erased any of my personal doubts, and did much to bolster Coach Mike Martin’s effusive praise about his speedy recovery and commitment to rehab/offseason workouts.  He flashed tremendous lateral movement, especially to his left and had the knack for making the sensational play.  Additionally, while countless other collegiate and young amateur players may make the spectacular play and fall asleep on the routine, Travis showed a constant commitment to detail throughout the season.  While his arm is below average and will restrict him to 2B (see also: his frame/athleticism), it will not be a concern at the keystone. Finally, Travis’ ability to turn the double play is well above-average—his extremely soft and quick hands and sufficiently quick transfer allowed FSU’s young pitchers to work around their mistakes throughout 2012.

Given Travis’ limited stolen base totals, thick frame, and knee operation, one would not expect the second baseman to be much of a burner.  Throughout the year I clocked Travis between 4.08 and 4.4 on home to first splits, with the majority of the times circa 4.2 and 4.25.  Viewed through lens of the 20-80 scouting scale, the righthanded hitting Travis grades out at plus to solid-average (60-55) runner. Again, given his frame and injury history, there is little room for further projection, so Travis will probably be a 55-50 runner over the course of his professional career.

At the plate Travis finished 2012 with a career best eight homeruns, hitting .325/.400/.504 in the process.  He particularly flashed his power late in the season, during the regional and super-regional games.  He also finished with a team best 24 doubles. Travis, like most other FSU hitters, is quiet at the plate and likes to let the ball get deep and hit off his backside.  His bat speed is probably average or solid-average and he ran into trouble when pitchers were able to pound him right below the hands.  Luckily, Travis rarely ran into the kind of pitcher that could consistently challenge him with the necessary command and velocity in his collegiate career. However, as he climbs the ladder professionally, Travis will have to prove that he can handle plus velocity in on the hands.  Furthermore, while Travis improved upon his plate discipline (which was questioned early in his career) and showed that he could work deep into counts he also had a tendency to flail at breaking balls in the dirt.  Again, Travis’ ability to read quality breaking balls out of the hand will be tested throughout his minor-league journey in the next couple of years. However, on the whole Travis was a solid hitter—mechanically nearly every hitter this side of Miguel Cabrera has a hole—and he showed the ability to consistently barrel balls and keep a level swing plane. 

When you put together the whole package, (I think) you get a plus (60-65) defender at 2B, with solid-average (55) speed, a potentially fringe-average (45) to average (50) hit tool, and below-average power (40) at an up-the-middle position.  So potentially, Travis profiles as a 50-player or a fringe-average everyday regular (solid value for a 14^th round pick, no?).  A scout that I talked to before the 2012 season started was not too high on Travis given his frame and questionable hit tool, but another scout that I talked to after the season (and after Travis had been drafted) was very complimentary of the second baseman and thought that he had an outside chance of playing in the big leagues.  Clearly, the Detroit Tigers organization was also high on Travis, as they handed out an over-slot bonus of $200,000 to their 13^th round pick.  According to Baseball America’s 2012 Draft Database only five other players drafted between the 10^th and 15^th rounds were awarded higher bonuses (Cardinals LHP Max Foody Cardinals, Braves OF Connor Lien, Rays C Taylor Hawkins C Rays, Mets RHP Chris Flexen, and Blue Jays LHP Ryan Borucki).

Travis signed with the Tigers relatively quickly (after FSU was eliminated from CWS) and played in 25 games with Detroit’s NYPL affiliate Connecticut before a hand injury ended his professional debut on August 4^th. The 21-year-old hit .280/.352/.441 with three homers in his 93 at-bats.  And while the preliminary results are encouraging, because he profiles only as a second baseman, a lot of pressure will be on the bat, and Travis’ ability to handle the lumber (and stay healthy) over the next two seasons will probably provide much more clarity on his future role.

Also, cool little article on his signing: http://www.pbgametime.com/news/ex-palm-beach-central-star-devon-travis-signs-pro-contract-with-detroit-tigers-will-forgo-senior-year-at-fsu/138750/

Thoughts on the Bristol White Sox

A couple of days ago I included some of my thoughts and observations about a number of players from the Burlington Royals, and today I am going to discuss what I saw from their opponents from July 4-6, the Bristol White Sox.  As I mentioned previously, I wrote a feature article on the White Sox’s first-round draft pick, Courtney Hawkins for Baseball America (link). 

The BA article was predominately positive, as it highlighted Hawkins’ raw tools and potential for future success.  Indeed, there is much to like about Hawkins.  Like Starling, Hawkins’ body immediately stands out.  However, unlike Starling, Hawkins does not need to add and probably should not add more muscle mass at this point in his career.  The 18-year-old is listed at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, which definitely appeared accurate in person.  Based on his size and athleticism alone, one can easily project power in Hawkins’ future, and a scout in attendance noted that Hawkins generates plus bat speed with his strong wrists.  While he patrolled center field for Bristol, the scout felt that Hawkins may have to move to a corner outfield spot down the road.  I agree and was a little disappointed by his speed, as Hawkins consistently turned in 4.4 and 4.5 seconds on home-to-first splits.  He does feature strong arm and looked to make instinctive reads off of the bat, so he should be fine in either outfield position.  At the plate Hawkins struggled a bit throughout the series.  The first game he was pitched backwards almost every at-bat, which he clearly was not expecting. He took a couple of ugly swings and did not hit a ball hard.  However, he showed some flashes of his potential in the final two games of the series, and he showed the ability to adjust to how pitchers attacked him.  After striking out on three straight fastballs in his 1^st AB of the second game, he jumped on a first pitch fastball and drove it for a double into the right-center field gap in his second at bat.  Similarly, later in the series he put together some good AB and drove a 2-2 slider back up the middle for a hard-hit single.  While I was at first expecting a bit more out of the first-round talent, I learned that it would be foolish to expect too much from a teenager getting his first taste of professional ball.  The bottom line is that Hawkins has the physical tool to succeed at the highest level—the ability to make key adjustments and respond to failure will ultimately determine just how far Hawkins will go.

Unfortunately, none of the other players that I saw for Bristol particularly caught my eye.  I asked the scout that I sat with for two of the games if there were any players to look out for, but he also seemed to think that Hawkins was the only real ‘guy’ that the team had.  With that being said, I still took down some notes on a handful of players, such as Nick Basto, James Hudelson, Steven Nikorak, Jake Cose and Jefferson Olacio. 

Olacio is the player with the most potential, as the 18-year-old is a 6-foot-7, 230 pound left-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic.  In his previous start Olacio had mowed down his competition, striking out seven in five innings of work and not walking any. However, against Burlington both his stuff and command were lacking any #veneno.  It seemed as if his command issue stemmed from inconsistent mechanics—he had a tendency to pitch with only his upper half.  An inconsistent release point combined with some significant arm drag led to a rather unremarkable performance in which Olacio’s fastball ranged from 87-90 mph and his breaking balls (79-82) were too often either 58-footers or spinning across the heart of plate.  When it was all said and done with Olacio had thrown four innings, allowed four runs on two hits and seven walks, while striking out three. While the start was not impressive by any means, it is important to recognize that Olacio is still on 18 years old and may still be growing into his body.  Over the next few years he must continue to work hard to refine his movements, mechanics, and feel for pitching in order to be more consistent.

Some brief thoughts on the other guys that I mentioned:

·         I expected more out of Nick Basto. The shortstop is a fifth-round pick from this year’s draft, but he is not an elite athlete and will probably have to move to second, or more likely third base down the line. He put together a couple of scrappy AB, but was overpowered by fringe-average fastballs in on his hands. The scout that I talked to was not very impressed and felt that he would turn into a punch-less 3^rd baseman.

·         3B Steve Nikorak (R/R 6’2, 215) made some nice plays defensively—one to his left and one to his right—that required accurate and strong throws from his knees.  While he flashed the leather and had an athletic body type, the bat was nothing special, and he is a 22-year-old that was just drafted out of college (Temple), so one would be wise to remain skeptical until he continues to hit up the minor-league ladder.

·         RHP Jake Cose (6’5, 180) is 21-years-old in his 2^nd year w/ Bristol who was drafted in the 27^th round of the 2011 draft.  He showed some decent stuff (88-91 FB, 78-81 SL, 78-81 CH) and has a projectable frame, but I think that if he was able to put on some more muscle mass he would be able to add some velo and improve a fringy arsenal into a more potent collection.

·         RHP James Hudelson (6’4, 200) is a 22 year old out of Missouri that is in his first season of professional ball. He featured a ¾ delivery that created some deception and a nice angle for his 88-90 mph 2-seamer.  He also flashed a couple of average sliders between 74-75 mph.  Given his age and limited upside, Hudelson’s ceiling appears to be a mid-relief type of guy.

"Scouting" in North Carolina

Last week I started my summer internship with Baseball America in Durham, North Carolina.  While the majority of my work for BA will be conducted within the confines of their main office, there are a number of minor league teams within two or three hours.  Earlier this week the site posted an article that I wrote about the Chicago White Sox’s recent first round pick, Courtney Hawkins, which you can read here (if you are a BA subscriber).  If you are not a BA subscriber, the basic gist of the piece is that while Hawkins is “struggling”, the 18-year old is still getting adjusted to the rigors of professional baseball and has the raw ingredients for a special major-league player. 

               

I was able to see Hawkins and a number of other notable and rather unremarkable young players last week, as I attended three games between the Burlington Royals and the Bristol White Sox of the Rookie-level Appalachian League, and one game between the Delmarva Shorebirds and the Hickory Crawdads of the Low-A South Atlantic League.   

               

                Today I’ll include some of my notes and thoughts on various Burlington Royals, but tomorrow or the next few days I will write about some players from Bristol, Delmarva, and Hickory.

                Burlington features a number of impressive players for such a low level of the minor leagues.  The first and most well-known is center fielder Bubba Starling, a first-round pick in 2011 who is a tremendous athlete.  Listed at 6-foot-4 and 180 pounds, Starling signed for around $5 million, spurning the Nebraska Cornhuskers football team for a chance to play professional baseball.  He is extremely athletic and the body absolutely looks the part.  He has the frame to add some more muscle mass as he grows older, but he definitely looks like he belongs when he steps on the field.  Even though I only saw three games, it was apparent that Starling is still raw, but the tools are there.  His swing has some holes in it and I think that he will struggle with quality breaking balls all the way up the ladder, but he generates bat speed and showed the ability to work the opposite field, as he smashed a low and away fastball (that was probably a ball) into the right-CF gap for a triple.  His arm and speed are both solid-average to plus tools, and scouts project plus-power onto his bat.

               

Burlington’s second baseman for the series was Kenny Diekroeger, a 21-year-old 4^th round pick in this past month’s draft from Stanford University.  You can read more about Diekroeger’s path to the big leagues from one of my fellow BA interns, John Sandberg, here.  Diekroeger has a solid build and good body and is listed at 6’2, 190, which seemed accurate when looking in person.  He moved over to shortstop for one game in the series, but he definitely profiles better at second base.  He is athletic and made a very nice play on a high chopper to his left that required an accurate, quick release.  While I only saw him make a few plays in the field, I’d say that he profiles as an average defensive second baseman.  Like most prospects, Diekroeger’s future will rely on his ability to hit.  While at Stanford he struggled to make a consistent impact, and his production actually decreased each season.  While his numbers have been solid thus far and he performed well in the series, I was not sold on his potential.  A couple of his hits were jam-shots and bleeders that found open space and I really believe that anything above average velocity will give Diekroeger trouble.  Given his age, I’d expect Diekroeger to move up to Low-A, if not High-A to start off 2013.  As he climbs the ladder we will truly see what kind of bat Diekroeger brings to the table.

               

Many of the other Royals were solid players, but lack the pedigree or notoriety of Starling and Diekroeger.  In the above referenced piece about Diekroger, is a short blog post on Terrance Gore, a diminutive 20-year-old outfielder with blazing speed.  He has a 30 (maybe 20) grade arm and will probably be reduced to a corner outfield spot (unless they are willing to take the defensive hit), which greatly reduces his value.  He has been rumored to be clocked at an astounding 3.8 seconds to first base from the right-side which grades out higher than “80” or elite, but I clocked him at a 4.03 while a scout I sat with had him a 3.95 on another occasion.  Regardless, Gore’s speed makes him an interesting prospect to keep an eye on.  I really liked a pair of left-handed starters that the Royals threw out, Patrick Conroy and Colin Rodgers, but because I was focused on Hawkins, Gore, and the other top guys (for my piece for Baseball America) I was not able to get as much detail as I’d like.  Regardless, here are some of my skeleton notes for the more under-the-radar Burlington guys:

·         LHP Patrick Conroy (6’4, 218), 20 years old, 1^st season out of J.C. (Marin CC in Cali), 32^nd round pick

o   86-89 FB

o   84-85 cutter

o   75-77 curve

o   Pitchability guy—still needs to polish some of his secondary command, but overall strong control

·         SS Humberto Arteaga (R/R, 6’1, 160), 18 year old out of Caracas

o   Listed as best fielder in Royal’s farm system by Baseball America, but I did not see it at all during the series

§  Made a couple of errors on routine plays, also did not appear to get to balls in the hole that I thought he had a shot for

§  Didn’t appear to be playing hard, running hard down the line

o   Good frame, body—can add mass down the road, needs to

o   F-8

o   5-3

o   1b (2-2 count; made nice adjustment—after missing slider earlier, went back up middle for hit)

·         RHP Jake Junis (6’3, 210), 29^th round out of Illinois HS in 2012

o   87-90 FB

o   78-81 CH

·         LHP Daniel Stumpf (6’2, 200), San Jacinto College, 21 years old, 9^th round pick in 2012

o   Good CH

o   Late life, burst on FB

·         LHP Colin Rodgers (6’0, 180), 3^rd round pick in 2012 out of LA HS, 18 years old

o   86-88 FB

o   82-83 SL/CT (scout said created good angle with arm action)

o   72-75 CRV

o   74-75 CH

A Few Thoughts on James Ramsey

After being picked 23^rd overall in the 2012 MLB First-Year Player Draft, Florida State’s James Ramsey agreed to terms with the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this week. Many well-respected baseball writers were not thrilled with St. Louis’ pick of Ramsey, feeling that the 23^rd overall spot was a bit of a reach for a player that most considered to be a sandwich-round or 2^nd round type of talent.  However, the Cardinals also selected Texas A&M’s Michael Wacha, considered to be a difficult sign, in the first round so many believed that St. Louis selected Ramsey as a safe, affordable option.  However, while it was generally thought that the Cardinals and Ramsey would agree to a deal well-below the assigned slot value for the 23^rd overall pick ($1.775 million), Baseball America’s Jim Callis reported that the two sides agreed to terms on a bonus worth around $1.6 million.  As a college senior, Ramsey had little leverage in the contract negotiations, so some people may wonder why St. Louis offered so much money for a player that most considered to be a reach. 

On MLB Network’s coverage of the draft a few weeks ago, Peter Gammons mentioned that Ramsey is an “area scout”, explaining that while Ramsey’s pure physical tools won’t jump off the board, people that are able to see him play consistently (like area scouts) will recognize that he is a legitimate prospect.  I had the pleasure of watching Ramsey play many games this season for Florida State, and after seeing him day in and day out I truly think that he is a first-round type of talent.   It appears as if the St. Louis Cardinals brass and scouting/development team similarly value Ramsey, which is why they were willing to take him earlier than projected and still offer a bonus within spitting distance of the assigned value.

(Too) Much was made of Ramsey’s makeup and leadership qualities on MLB Network’s draft coverage, and while he does appear to be a tremendous person with an exceptional work ethic and dedication to the game, I think that many of his physical attributes were overlooked.  Ramsey is not a physically imposing figure by any stretch of the imagination, as he is listed at 6’0 and 190 pounds, but is probably closer to 5’10” or 5’11”.  He does not possess great speed, but throughout the season he consistently clocked 4.0 or 4.1 times from home to first, which generally profiles as plus (60) speed on the scouting scale.  However, given Ramsey’s hard-nosed style of play, his “true” speed is probably solid-average (55).  Defensively, Ramsey features a strong and accurate arm.  In 2011, as a junior, Ramsey played right field and finished the season with three outfield assists.  This past season Ramsey moved over to center field, and he finished the season with four assists.  While it can be problematic to assign a judge a player’s defensive capabilities based off of statistics or just a couple of games, I am confident in assigning Ramsey a solid-average (55) to average (50) arm. 

Ramsey, like many Florida State Seminoles, is extremely patient and confident at the plate.  He has shown a propensity to work deep into counts and is comfortable hitting behind in the count, if necessary.  Furthermore, Ramsey showed the ability to make in-game and in-AB adjustments while dealing with the comparatively wide and inconsistent NCAA strike zone.  He likes to let the ball get deep on him and uses the entire field effectively, as he peppered the left-center field gap throughout the year.  However, he also features strong, quick wrists and has flashed the ability to turn on inside pitches and handle solid-average and plus velocity.  However, the only real question that I have with Ramsey is his ability to handle left-handed velocity.  Many LHP with plus velocity are picked high in the MLB draft out of high school and do not step foot on a college campus, and I cannot remember Ramsey hitting against many left-handed pitchers with 92 MPH+ velocity.  Furthermore, Ramsey appeared to be a bit susceptible to velocity (from RHP and LHP) right underneath his hands, which will be something that he will have to adjust to in order to progress through the minor leagues.  With all of that being said, most, if not all, players struggle with handling plus velocity from same-sided pitchers, so at this point it does not seem to be much of a concern.  Overall, Ramsey had an extremely productive college career, and I think that he has the physical skills, coordination, and approach to be an average (50; .270) to plus (60; .300) hitter at the MLB level if he reaches his ceiling. 

As I mentioned earlier, Ramsey is not a physically imposing figure, but he is athletic, possesses a strong core, and is able to create some torque with his swing mechanics.  He will never be a guy that projects to hit 30+ homeruns at the major league level, but Ramsey did show the ability a charge into the ball after the well-documented bat changes that the NCAA implemented, as he hit 10 homers as a junior in 2011 and 13 this past season.  Ramsey also had a solid showing in the Cape Cod League in the Summer of 2011, hitting an impressive nine home runs in 131 AB using wood bats against some of the top college pitching.  Regardless, Ramsey still appears to be a more a gap-to-gap, doubles-type hitter that will pepper in home runs.   As a result, Ramsey’s power projects to be “below average” (40 grade) to “fringe-average” (45-50 grade) meaning that he should be expected (if he reaches his ceiling) to hit between 14 and 25 homeruns in a full season’s worth of at-bats.

Therefore, Ramsey’s value at the major-league level will be heavily reliant on his ability to continue playing center field.  The requirements of a corner outfielder’s bat are far more taxing than that of a center fielder, as the typical right/left fielder is generally expected to provide significant power to the lineup.  Given Ramsey’s relatively “limited” power projection, it is imperative that he sticks in CF in order to consistently contribute at a high-level in the majors.  Defense is hard to read because a position player may not get many opportunities to field balls in play.  Luckily, I was able to watch Ramsey play throughout the year, so I feel that I was able to get a decent feel for his abilities.  I do think that he be serviceable in center field.  Ramsey has solid instincts a quick first step, makes quick reads, and while he is not a burner, his solid-average speed is good enough to help him get to balls in the gap.  In a few years, Ramsey be forced to change positions, but I asked a scout for the Seattle Mariners what he thought about Ramsey’s defensive prospects and he said that he liked what he saw from him, so it appears as if Ramsey may be able to patrol CF for the near future.

Overall, I was extremely pleased to see James Ramsey get picked in the first round, and even more pleased to see that the Cardinals value his play so highly.  While he may not be a tools freak and does not feature the upside of some of the other first-round picks, I still believe he is a first round talent that will contribute at the major league level, which is something that cannot be said for many other former, current, and future prospects.

5/6/12 and 5/7/12: Bryan Evans, Jake Smolinski, Kyle Jensen, and others Chase the Dream

I finished yesterday’s post discussing Diamondbacks LHP prospect Tyler Skaggs. His counterpart on Monday afternoon’s start was RHP Bryan Evans.  

Bryan Evans

This was the third time that I have been able to see Evans pitch, as I had seen him pitch twice last year (once against Tampa Bay Ray prospect Jesus Colome and once against Trevor Bauer).  Here is what I had to say about Evans’ first start last season:

Colome's counterpart on Wednesday night was Bryan Evans, a 14th round draft pick out of UC-Davis in  2008.  Evans, 24, has spent the better part of the past two years in Florida State League and the Midwest League and is probably not projected to be a true prospect.  His minor-league K/IP statistics are not all that impressive and his arsenal is not made up of typical swing-and-miss type stuff.  However, I came away liking what I saw from Evans, even though there have been thousands of pitchers with similar stuff that have never sniffed the big leagues.  Evans' delivery is a bit complicated and it appears as if when he releases the ball he is throwing across his body or is facing the hitter at an extreme angle.  His arm angle is over-the-top and the best comparison that I can give is kind of a hybrid mix between Josh Collmenter and Jered Weaver.  The scouts were clearly there to see Colome (even though Evans was also just recently called up to AA), as most put their radar guns down when Evans was on the mound.  However, I was able to see from those that did keep the guns out that Evans' fastball sat at 85-90 mph, his slider clocked in around 81 mph, and his curve/slurve measured in at 74 mph.  I did not get a good read on what the velocity was on his changeup, but the pitch did feature some arm-side run (although he did telegraph a few by slowing down his windup considerably).  His fastball also featured some good arm-side run and he was able to sneak some in on right handed hitters.  Evans' pure stuff was nowhere near as dominant as Colome's but his line was a bit better for the night as he went 6+ innings (walked first two guys in 7th) for the win, giving up 6 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, while striking out 6.  Evans' future is nowhere near as bright as Colome's given his age and lack of velo, but his windup and pitching mechanics were deceptive enough to hitters that he was able to strike out 6 in 6 innings of work.  Given that this was only his 3rd appearance and 1st start in AA, it remains to be seen if hitters will be able to adjust and exploit Evans' pedestrian stuff or if his pitchability and deception will allow him to succeed and climb the ladder of professional baseball.

He struggled in his second start of 2011, against Trevor Bauer.  Here is what I wrote about that specific outing:

A player that I profiled previously, RHP Bryan Evans started opposite Trevor Bauer but had a very poor evening, as he struggled to find the strike zone (walked opposing SP Bauer twice) and his line read 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 4 K. Evans’ was not very consistent with any of his pitches, but especially his slider which seemed to be much more flat than the previous outing that I was able to see (IMO his curveball still seems to be the sharper breaking ball and a better option than the slider, even though he throws it only around 74-75 mph).  His FB velocity was still between 85-91 mph but again his command was sharp enough and he paid it, after being pulled early.

Evans finished 2011 in AA Jacksonville after dominating High-A (as a 24-year old) and posted solid numbers.  However, his strikeout rate was not impressive (only 27 in 37.1 IP or 6.5/9 IP). 

After seeing him this past Monday, I am not convinced that Evans can pitch in the big leagues. The first time I saw him, I noted that Evans’ delivery was deceptive.  However, Evans’ pure stuff leaves much to be desired so his command and sequencing need to be very sharp for him succeed as he climbs the ladder.  Recently, his command has been very mediocre, and he has actually walked more batters (24) than he has struck out (21) in just 30.2 innings of work.  Pitchers like Evans cannot succeed consistently with spotty command.  I had originally believed that Evans could turn into a back of the rotation innings eater if everything broke right, but after seeing him a few more times I think that if Evans is to ever make a MLB roster it will be as a middle-reliever or swingman.

Jake Smolinski

Last year I also got the chance to see Jake Smolinski (JAX) play a handful of times and here is what I had to say about him:

 Jake Smolinski, a 22 year old OF for the Jacksonville Suns was drafted in the 2nd round out of high school by the Washington Nationals.  He was traded to the Florida Marlins organization with Emilio Bonifacio for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham.  Smolinski is a converted 2B/3B that flashed some decent athleticism in the games that I attended.  He hit towards the bottom of the order, which is surprising for such a high draft pick, but nonetheless he put together quality ABs and was 2-3 off of Chris Archer. This is Smolinski's first season in AA and he has played pretty well so far and has been able to draw more walks, even though he only is hitting .259.  Overall, Smolinski looked like a pretty solid player and profiles as a 4th OF or maybe a 2nd-division starter type if he remains as a corner OF.

Smolinski finished 2011 in AA Jacksonville hitting. 245/.342/.364 with 26 2B and 7 HR. The first thing that I noticed this season was that Smolinski appeared to have filled out a little bit more.  The media guide listed him at 6’0, 205 and he clearly looked the part, with an athletic frame.   Now 23 years old, Smolinski is hitting .325/.440/.482 with 9 2B (and 0 HR) through 22 games with Jacksonville.  Smolinski’s value would be much greater if he could handle center field, but I clocked him at a slightly-below average 4.4 and 4.5 to first base so he is going to be limited to a corner spot.  His lack of raw power has to be slightly disconcerting, but he has a level-swing plane and has proved that he has solid gap-to-gap power.  At this point, Smolinski appears to a traditional tweener—not enough power to handle a corner and not athletic/fast enough to play in center field.  However, with his ability to get on base and put the bat on the ball he may still end up as a 2^nd-division starter.

Kyle Jensen

Last season I also saw Kyle Jensen play a couple of games in right field for the Jacksonville Suns.  Here is what I had to say about him:

The Suns’ RF Kyle Jensen was pretty impressive in both games that I saw (again limited sample size) as he showed the ability to barrel balls the other way (off Jarrod Parker) and flashed nice range in right field.

Jensen, a left-handed hitter clocked a 4.8 to 1^st base and looked below-average out in right field on Sunday night.  Suffice it to say, I was a bit off base in my observations last season.  As a 23-year old Jensen crushed Hi-A pitching in Jupiter and his numbers fell off a bit when promoted to Jacksonville towards the end on 2011.  Thus far he is struggling a bit at the plate.  I did not get to see Jensen play on Monday, but he (like many other Suns hitters) was overmatched by Trevor Bauer.  He has some power in the bat, but he is limited defensively and turns 24 on May 20th so he does not profile as a true prospect.  He may have some value as a bat-only 4^th OF/1B/DH type.

Sutil and Gilbert

A couple of Mobile Bay Bears caught my eye initially, but I quickly found out that they were journeymen chasing the dream.  SS Wladimir Sutil made a solid play to his left and flashed a strong arm, but the Venezuelan is 27 years old and is playing in AA for a fifth consecutive season.  CF Archie Gilbert was picked off by Jose Alvarez in Sunday night’s game, which led me to believe that Gilbert was a young player learning the nuances of professional baseball.  However, Gilbert is actually a soon to be 29-year old, so even though he showed a short, compact swing and hit 12 HRs last year in the Eastern League, he is not a true prospect either. 

Matt Davidson

Finally, Mobile 3B Matt Davidson caught my eye as well.  I did not do any research going into the series so I had not heard of Davidson before Sunday, but his solid numbers and role as cleanup hitter piqued my interest.  He has a “bad” body with some baby fat and looked like he might have to move to 1^st base in the future if he did not get into better shape.  Regardless, I liked his approach at the plate, and statistics show that he has been able to work more walks. Furthermore, Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks recently wrote about Davidson and noted that his footwork (defensively) and offensive approach have improved since his inaugural season.  Davidson was a supplemental first-round pick in 2009 and a .310/.433/.534 slash line as a 21 year old in AA shows that Davidson can hit.  I hope to see Davidson play again this season for a further and more complete evaluation.