3Update

With graduate school and numerous different work obligations it has been difficult for me to keep up with a lot of other things, including this blog.  I’ve been trying pretty hard to include new notes and observations on many college players that I’ve been fortunate enough to see the last couple of months, but it has not worked out as well as I had hoped. 

Within the next few weeks I will have significantly more free time as spring semester winds down and there is a dead period before summer school starts back up.  I am going to include more first-hand observations from various FSU games, including the FSU-Miami series (You can find my write up of Game 1 here, for CollegeBaseballInsider, a website which I currently intern for). 

However, in this entry I am going to focus on looking back on a handful of minor-league players that I observed last year and checking in to see how they are performing today.  Furthermore, this exercise should help me to recognize what characteristics I need to improve on in order to further cultivate my scouting skills.  

One of the players that caught my eye last year was Tim Beckham, who I saw while playing for AA Montgomery.  Here is what I wrote upon seeing Beckham playing against the Jacksonville Suns last season:

  Kevin Goldstein rated Beckham as the Rays' 18th best prospect coming into the season and John Sickels gave Beckham a C+ grade before opening day.  By both accounts Beckham's 2011 was going to largely be a make-or-break type of year. So far this season his numbers have been pretty solid and after watching him for three games I can confidently say that he was the best position player on the field for either team.  Beckham has quick wrists at the plate and shows some pop in his bat.  He looked to have a solid approach and was quick to exploit pitchers who left balls over the plate or attacked him early in the count with fastballs.  He flashed good opposite field power as he took the first pitch that he saw from Bryan Evans (a fastball) to the right center field gap for a double. He also hit a number of other balls hard throughout the series that resulted in outs. Some of Beckham's detractors point to his fielding and after seeing him firsthand they do have a point.  Beckham showed solid range on a couple of plays to his left, but he also committed one throwing error and was bailed out by his first baseman on another.  Both plays were relatively routine groundballs, but Beckham sat back and gave himself an in between hop.  His rhythm was thrown off which altered his throws.  It appears as if he has the athleticism to play shortstop, but he needs to make the plays easier for himself and keep his concentration in the field if he is to stay at the position (there is some thought that he will eventually have to move to 3rd base).

And an update from a couple of weeks later, as Beckham had been promoted to AAA:

Montgomery SS Tim Beckham who was called up to AAA Durham over a week ago has continued to hit well at the next level as he has hit .291 with 3 HR in 55 AB.

Beckham finished the 2011 season at AAA Durham, playing 24 games for the Bulls, and producing a .255/.282/.462 slash.  He hit .275/.339/.395 in 107 games at Montgomery.  This season Beckham started the year off at AAA Durham, but has gotten off to a slow start.  Through 13 games Beckham is hitting .204/.290/.278 without any home runs.  Unfortunately, milb.com and fangraphs.com do not list fielding statistics (although they are misleading anyway) so I cannot truly weigh in on his defense this year.  Regardless, Beckham has clearly gotten to a rough start offensively, but it is extremely early into the 2012 campaign, and I believe that Beckham will play in the big leagues, probably as soon as this season.  He will not end up being a superstar or All-Star like everybody hopes that former No. 1 picks are, but I think that he can be a 50 hitter (.250-.270) with gap power and run into 10-15 home runs if given the opportunity to play an entire season.  I also believe that Beckham can stick at shortstop, although his defense at the position may only ever be average at best.

Another Montgomery Biscuit that I wrote about, Kyeong Kang has also been struggling.  He only has 28 at bats through 11 games thus far and has been splitting time with others in the outfield.  I’m not sure if Kang also has been dealing with injuries but his performance in 2012 has not been stellar.  Here is what I wrote about him last year:

Kyeong Kang (LF/RF) for Montgomery, age 23, was a 15th round draft pick out of a Georgia high school. The native South Korean was not listed in the Top 20 pre-season lists of TB prospects by Goldstein or Sickels, but he did impress me throughout the series. Kang played for the World Team in the 2009 Futures Game, but had a poor 2010 season in the High-A Florida State League for Charlotte.  2011 has been a bounce back year for Kang as he currently sports an OBP of .395.  Again, minor-league statistics can sometimes be misleading and do not always tell the whole story, but I came away thinking that Kang may have a bright future.  He showed a good approach at the plate, was able to fight off tough pitches with two strikes, and hit a number of balls solidly.  Kang's wrists were not as quick as Beckham's and his swing did appear to be a bit long.  Kang also has questionable athleticism and his power numbers are not ideal for a corner outfielder.  However, Kang did show off a very strong and accurate arm as he had two outfield assists in the three games that I was able to attend.  I enjoyed watching Kang play and think that he could profile as a second division starter or a 4th OF type at the MLB level.

Kang cooled down a bit since I saw him in August, and finished with a slash line of .263/.384/.437 and 11 HR and 14 2B in 316 AB.  I did note that Kang’s swing was a bit long and not as quick as Beckham’s.  Similarly, I identified that his athleticism and power (lack thereof) would limit his future potential as a corner outfielder.  Currently Kang has a slash line of .107/.188/.321 with 2 HR in his 28 AB.  Clearly, Kang is struggling mightily right now, but again, it is early in the season and he has been splitting time.  However, after taking a look at the roster, I think that Kang should be in line for more playing time going forward (which leads me to believe he has been battling injury) as the other outfielders currently listed are Brad Coon (29 years old), Emeel Salem (27 years old), and Isaias Velasquez (23 years old).  Velasquez is the only other outfielder with a true potential, so I expect Kang to get plenty of AB going forward.  With that being said, I still do not think that his ceiling, of a 4^th OF, has not changed and his assignment to repeat AA as 24 year-old probably reflects this as well.  As we saw with Beckham (and others such as Alex Torres, Matt Moore, etc.,) the Rays are not shy about having their prospects compete at AAA before bringing them up so it appears as if they think that Kang is still at least one year away from big league consideration. He may eventually be able to sneak his way into a starting job given an injury or with a second-division type of club, but he does not have the power yet to warrant a full-time gig. 

I also saw Shawn O’Malley play for the Montgomery Biscuits in their series vs. the Jacksonville Suns. Here is what I had to say about O’Malley last August:

 Shawn O'Malley is a 23 year old second baseman for Montgomery that was drafted in the 5th round out of his high school in Washington state.  O'Malley is agood athlete as he was first-team all-state as a wide receiver, defensive back, and kick returner.  Like Kang, O'Malley was not listed on Goldstein or Sickels top prospect lists, and in all honesty he does not warrant a spot on a top prospect list.  O'Malley has very little power (2 career minor league homeruns in 1678 plate appearances (via FanGraphs) which limits his value drastically.  However, in my mind O'Malley is still a fine player.  He is a switch hitter that shows quick hands from both sides of the plate and has solid speed.  He also had a tendency to work the count well and provide some quality ABs.  O'Malley is athletic and he would provide an organization more value if he could play SS, but it appeared that he did not have the necessary skill set to do so.  He looked good at second base and made a very nice play to his right which highlighted his range, but did not appear to translate well to a move across the diamond.  Overall, O'Malley is a fine, pesky player that is a joy to watch but he will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to reach the majors.

O’Malley finished 2011 in Montgomery and hit .276/.369/.344 with 8 2B, 1 HR, and 24 SB.  O’Malley broke spring training with AAA Durham.  Through 11 games O’Malley has 35 AB and is hitting .171/.262/.257 with 1 HR.  Clearly O’Malley, like the other players I’ve covered so far, has struggled.  One could be encouraged that O’Malley broke camp in AAA, a step up from last year’s assignment, but as I noted last year “he will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to reach the majors.” O’Malley does not really profile as an everyday anything given his lack of power, but he has struggled in the past and overcome adversity.  In 2010 he only hit .181 in 144 AB at Montgomery, but he was able to improve on that by almost .100 points one year later.  If O’Malley is able to rebound from a poor start as he has done in the past he may have an outside shot to serve as a utility/reserve player for an MLB club.

While I have been discussing the progress or lack thereof of past Montgomery position players, some Biscuit pitchers that I examined are also encountering some early adversity.

First, Alex Colome.  Here is what I wrote about Colome last August:

Colome was rated as the #6 prospect in the Rays system by Kevin Goldstein, who said that Colome offers a plus-plus fastball that sits at 93-95 and can touch 97.  Goldstein further wrote that Colome has the potential to be a star-level rotation piece with plenty of strikeouts.  Colome did not disappoint as he brought tremendous pure stuff to the table.
       
      Mechanically, Colome throws with a very loose arm action and he generates a ton of power behind his slight, skinny frame through his burst off the rubber (For comparison his windup almost had a Pedro Martinez-like look to it).  He had decent enough command of his fastball throughout the game, although in the middle innings (3rd and 4th) Colome seemed to lose some of his command and had to battle through some long at-bats.  Like Kevin Goldstein wrote, Colome's fastball did indeed sit at 93-95 and hit 96 on a number of occasions.  His curveball was sharp after using mainly his fastball in the first inning he put away two hitters with his power-curve (76-78 mph) in the second inning.  His changeup had some good armside run to it and usually clocked in around 85-87 mph, but he did not throw it all that much (although throw a great one to Kyle Skipworth in the 6th inning).  His slider/cutter usually registered at 87-90 mph, although he did throw a few slower (83-85 mph). The pitch was particularly effective to lefties down and in.  Overall, Colome had a pretty solid evening as he pitched into the 7th inning, going 6.1 allowing 4 hits, 4 BB, 2 ER, and striking out 6.  Like I said, Colome looked a bit lost in the 3rd and 4th innings and showed visible signs of frustration on the mound, but he was able to put it together and put together a solid 4th and 5th inning.  Colome will undoubtedly need more time on the farm to work on the command of all of his pitches but his pure stuff does project well and if he continues to develop he could be a quality starter in the big leagues in a few years.

The above notes were from Colome’s second AA start of the season, as he started 2011 in the Florida State League.  He finished the season with Montgomery and finished 3-4 with a 4.15 ERA but only 31 K in 52 IP.  His strikeout rate dropped significantly from A to AA, but the early results from 2012 show that Colome can still miss bats (and given his fastball velocity and sharp power curve he should be).  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein had Colome rated as the Rays #5 prospect coming into the year, and although I am very familiar with the entire system I think that Colome’s potential definitely warrants such a rating.  Thus far Colome has made two starts, one good and one not so good.  He is 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA and has stuck out 10 through eight innings of work.  Obviously, eight innings through two starts is not a particularly encouraging statistic, but even the best of the best have a bad outing.  Colome is 24, which is a bit older for a true top-level prospect, but as he grows more accustomed to AA talent he should be able to harness his ability and be successful.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein said of Colome in his Rays preview:

“The Bad: Colome's delivery is far from easy, and he has problems throwing strikes. His secondary pitches come and go, and his breaking ball can get slurvy. A large number of scouts think he projects far better in a late-innings bullpen role.”

I think that Colome could be very effective as a reliever and be ready as soon as this year if the Rays felt that this route was necessary.  However, I still think that with another full season of refinement Colome projects to be a solid mid-rotation option for a major league team.

I also got the chance to watch SP Chris Archer pitch against the Suns.  Here are my notes from last year:

Game 2 of the series featured a prominent starting pitching prospect, as Chris Archer of Montgomery took the mound. Archer, 22, was a part of the package sent to the Rays by the Chicago Cubs this past offseason in the Matt Garza trade.  Archer was rated as the #4 prospect by Kevin Goldstein and #5 prospect by Minor League Ball's John Sickels in the pre-season.  Thus far Archer has had a decent 2011 campaign in AA as he has 100 K in 113.1 IP, but has also allowed 65 BB and has 14 WP (via FanGraphs).  BP's Goldstein noted before the season that Archer's development would depend on his command as he has always had trouble throwing strikes consistency.  Again, in Game 2 I sat down the right field line and the radar gun was not functioning so it was impossible to get an accurate reading of Archer's velocity, but Goldstein wrote that Archer sits around 92-94 and that his power slider can be un-hittable when its on. Archer was not at the top of his game when I saw him, but he was pretty impressive nontheless. His fastball overpowered a number of Suns hitters and his slider definitely had a sharp bite on it.  However, his outing was typical of the reports as he did struggle some with command allowing 4 BB in 6 IP (although the umpire's strike zone was tight throughout the game).

Archer was promoted to AAA Durham late in the season and made two starts there.  He finished 2011 with a combined line of 9-7, 4.09 ERA, and 130 K in 147 IP.  However, Archer also walked 86 batters, and I witnessed Archer’s command issues firsthand.  This season, Kevin Goldstein rated Archer as the Rays’ #8 prospect and he noted that Archer’s regressed from his 2010 season.  He pitched very well in his two starts at AAA Durham in 2011, but thus far Archer has run into some early problems.  Through 3 starts Archer is 1-2 with a 9.95 ERA and 13 BB in 12.2 IP.  The control issue is something that will definitely be monitored closely by the Rays’ front office.  Again, in the start that I witnessed last year Archer was overpowering and had a devastating slider.  However, unless he is able to regain his composure and find the strike zone more consistently, Archer will most likely end up as a late-inning bullpen arm.  While this is not the end of the world, I’m sure that the Rays would prefer if Archer could develop as a starter.  With an overabundance of starting pitching at the MLB level, and Archer still only 23 years old, Tampa Bay may be content to wait and see how Archer develops this season before bringing him up to the show.

A Montgomery relief pitcher that I liked was Marquis Fleming.  Here is what I wrote about Fleming:

Archer was relieved by Marquis Fleming, a 24 year old righty drafted in the 24th round out of Cal State Stanislaus.  Fleming has put up solid stats thus far, with 90 K in 63.2 innings (via FanGraphs).  However, minor-league statistics are not always great indicators of true talent level because things such as age and experience vary by level.  I got the opportunity to watch Fleming warm-up as I was situated near the visitor's bullpen.  Fleming showed solid run and sink on his two-seam fastball and he was able to utilize this pitch to get out of trouble and induce a double play in the eighth inning.  He didn't have the strongest line of the night, and he may only be a middle-reliever type but I liked what I saw from Fleming and could envision him coming out of the bullpen as a middle-man in the majors at some point in his career.

  He finished 2011 with a 5-4 record, 3.48 ERA, and 105 K in 82.2 IP.  Unfortunately I did not have a radar gun and was sitting down the first base line during this game, but I hope to see Fleming pitch again this season.  Fleming had a solid spring and I believe that there was some discussion about Fleming breaking camp with the Rays, but he started off 2012 in AAA Durham.  Thus far Fleming has struggled to make the adjustment to AAA and has allowed 12 ER, 14 H, and 9 BB in only 11 innings.  Again, it is early in the season and Fleming may still be getting used to pitching in AAA.  Still, as I said in my notebook last season, Fleming’s ceiling is probably that of a middle-reliever as I do not think that he is overpowering enough to be a closer, but here is a reason why you should root for him: http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080617/SPORTS/806170336

Finally, (for now) Matt Bush.  Here is what I wrote about the former No. 1 pick last season:

Like Jacksonville, Montgomery also used an overpowering RHP out of the bullpen after pulling their starter.  Matt Bush, 25, former 1st overall pick by the San Diego Padres in 2004 pitched 2 innings of relief work for the Biscuits. Drafted as a SS, Bush has resurrected his baseball career after being out of the game for a number of years.  Bush pitched 13.2 innings last year in the GCL and Florida State League, but this year has been his first true test as a pitcher.  Because of his age and relative inexperience as a pitcher, Bush was not featured on many prospect lists coming into the season.  However, his outing in Game 1 was pretty impressive. Bush pitched 2 innings, surrendered 2 walks, yet struck out 4 and did not allow any hits or runs.  He flashed an overpowering fastball that appeared to be in the mid-90s and had decent command of the pitch.  His breaking ball was sharp and froze a couple of hitters for called third strikes, but his command of the pitch was spotty.  Bush does not have the typical pitchers body, only standing at 5-9" but he has thick legs and a strong torso, along with a very strong arm, which allows him to create such great torque and pitch in the mid-90s.  With some more seasoning and experience Bush may eventually find himself in a MLB bullpen in the future.

Bush finished 2011 in Montgomery, going 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA and an impressive 77 K in 50.1 IP.  While Bush did not enter 2011 on many people’s radar he pitched well enough to be in the conversation for a big-league roster spot.  Unfortunately, Bush’s off-field decisions have likely ended his attempt to play in the big leagues.  Bush had previously struggled with alcohol and drugs while in the Padres organization, and this year, during Spring Training Bush borrowed a teammate’s vehicle on an off-day and was involved in a nasty hit-and-run DUI incident that still has him sitting in a jail cell (For more read this tremendous article by Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports).  I (along with many others) was rooting for Matt Bush, but regrettably his demons caught up with him and we will not be able to witness a career revival reminiscent of Josh Hamilton.  Hopefully, the accident victim is able to fully recover and Bush is able to find a happy and safe balance in life.

Player Profile: South Carolina RHP Evan Beal

Video of Beal from H.S.: http://bit.ly/Hkunb7

Grade: Freshman

Hometown: Fairfax Station, VA

Notable Information: Drafted in the 8th Round of the 2011 MLB First-Year Player Draft by the Kansas City Royals; Rated No. 393 best high school prospect in the nation (2011) by Perfect Game USA; Rated No. 2 player in Virginia (2011) by Baseball America

Body: 6-3, 185

Background with the player: Observed player’s outing v. University of Kentucky on 3/16/2012

Tools:  Beal has the ideal body for a young pitching prospect.  He is listed at 6’3 on the South Carolina website (although other publications list him as tall as 6’5) and has an athletic body type that could carry an additional fifteen to twenty-five pounds at full maturity.  Like many pitchers, Beal’s release point is of the high three-quarter variety (there are very few straight overhand deliveries—Josh Collmenter, etc.) and the delivery is smooth and easy, as the ball appears to explode out of his hand upon release.  From the windup Beal’s rhythm, pace, and composure reminds me greatly of Rick Porcello, and like Porcello (at least out of high school) Beal features an overpowering fastball.  While he is facing collegiate hitters, Beal’s FB velocity is still a 60 at present, as it sits around 92-94 mph with the ability to play up to 95-96.  In the outing that I observed Beal’s command of the fastball was pretty solid and the pitch featured a bit of late run on it.  Beal had two secondary offerings that he featured—a sharp curveball and a hard slider/cutter that had some nice late movement on it.  It is hard for me to throw a grade on either pitch as this moment, given my limited background with the player, but from my vantage point both pitches had great, late break that has the ability to miss bats consistently.   

Results: As of tonight, March 27, 2012 Beal has appeared in 10 games, throwing 14 and 2/3 innings, allowing 7 hits, 5 walks, and six earned runs for a 3.68 ERA and .817 WHIP.  He has struck out 23 batters over his 14.2 innings for a K/9 ratio of 14.11.  However, he has been prone to the long ball, giving up three homers in his limited workload.  Specifically, in the outing that I saw—an appearance v. Kentucky on Friday night game—Beal gave up a walk-off homer.  In his inning and a third of work, Beal struck out three hitters and looked great, except for hitting a batter and giving up the long ball.  The homer was off of his curveball, a spinner that he left over the heart of the plate.  Regardless of the result I was very impressed with Beal’s arsenal and his numbers (specifically his strikeout numbers) this year, show that his stuff is dominant.  However, with that being said, I think that he should be careful not to fall in love with his curveball—it is a very good pitch and has missed bats, but I felt that he relied on that pitch too much and has the ability to use his fastball far more than he showed in his appearance vs. UK.

Projection:  This year Beal has been used as a reliever by South Carolina coach Ray Tanner.  Beal definitely has the pedigree to start and I think that next year Beal will become USCe’s Friday night starter.  Much of Beal’s professional value will fall on his ability to develop another serviceable off-speed pitch.  His curveball and slider/cutter are solid weapons, but at the next level a passable changeup or split is usually needed for one to consistently work through a lineup three or four times.  Obviously, scouts are already aware of Beal, as he was drafted in the eighth round last year, so those actually in the business see the potential.  If all goes well for Beal (continued development, no injury issues) I could see him being a 1^st round talent in 2014.  

Scouting at Dick Howser (Pt. 3)

FSU v. FIU (cont.)

In my last entry I focused on a handful of FIU’s position players.  This post will focus on a couple of Florida International pitchers, R.J. Fondon (Game 1 starter) and Mason McVay (Game 2 starter).  Unfortunately the stadium scoreboard does not feature a pitch reading and I still do not own a radar gun, so it was impossible for me to get clear, accurate readings on velocity.  However, I felt that I was able to gain a solid understanding of both players’ arsenals.

Fondon, a senior LHP out of Pembroke Pines started the opening game of the series on Friday night.  Last season Fondon compiled a 6-6 record with a 3.05 ERA in 16 starts.  Statistics such as wins and ERA can sometimes be misleading because they are team-dependent, but talent evaluators often like to look at how many strikeouts a pitcher tallies (especially at the amateur ranks) because they feel that it helps to shed light on how dominant a pitcher truly is.  Last season Fondon only had 55 strikeouts in 97.1 innings pitched (a K/9 ratio of only 5.1) which indicates that his future professional prospects may be limited.  However, there are always exceptions to any “rule” so it would be unwise to write off Fondon just from looking at statistics. 

Physically, Fondon has a strong pitcher’s frame, at 6’2” and 190 pounds and he looked to be comfortable within his own body and able to repeat his delivery without too much of a problem.  He probably has the frame to comfortably carry another 20 pounds or so, which could benefit him down the line.  While he was able to repeat his delivery comfortably, Fondon struggled with command of all of his pitches throughout the start.  Fondon predominately featured his fastball and slider and occasionally mixed in a slow curveball to keep hitters off-balance.  His fastball velocity was nothing special and I would speculate that it ran from 86-91 with the vast majority of pitches sitting in the 86-88 range.  Again, his command was nothing special and he did fall behind on a number of hitters.  His slider was probably his best pitch, although he featured two different kinds of sliders—a flat, get-me-over cutter type of pitch and a traditional sweeping slider with two-plane break.  Fondon threw his cutter early in the count against right-handed hitters and used it in the middle innings as a bit of a change-of-pace.  The traditional slider was clearly the superior option, as the two-plane break was sharp and the pitched flashed average (50-grade) potential.  While he was able to get a few strikeouts and induce a number of groundouts with the pitch, Fondon still struggled to command the pitch consistently and surrendered a number of walks on the day.  Much like his cutter, Fondon’s slow curve was not as potent as his slider.  He did not use the slow curve too often, but it was effective on a couple of occasions and he was able to strikeout FSU SS Justin Gonzalez with it. 

Fondon was able to earn the win and his line from the night read as follows 5.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K. While his line is not all that impressive, it should be noted that he fought through a 45 minute rain delay in the second inning.  Overall, I feel comfortable saying that Fondon does not feature plus (or even above average) stuff (although his slider does project to be an average pitch), so he will have to improve and refine the command of his entire arsenal to be anything more than an organizational arm in professional baseball.

FIU’s Game 2 starter was LHP Mason McVay.  McVay is a Redshirt Junior that redshirted in 2010 because he was recovering from Tommy John surgery.  As a freshman in 2009 McVay was predominately used as a reliever and finished the season with 22.1 innings pitched and 23 strikeouts (0-2, 8.06 ERA).  Last season, as a RS-Soph, McVay was again used as a reliever, striking out 37 in 30.1 innings pitched (1-1, 3.56 ERA).  McVay is a physically imposing lefty, as he stands at 6’7” and is said to weigh in at 240 pounds.  Many pitchers of McVay’s size and stature often struggle to repeat their delivery, remain sound mechanically, and consistently command the strike zone.  McVay was no different as he fell behind FSU hitters quite often, surrendered five walks, threw one wild pitch, and had to be pulled after four innings due to a high pitch count.  However, McVay also flashed a significant amount of promise. He pumped in his fastball with pretty good velocity—presumably between 91 and 95 mph (and sitting at 92-93) and was able to overpower a number of Seminoles, especially left-handed hitters Jose Brizuela and Sherman Johnson.  Like Fondon, McVay also utilized two different breaking balls, a hard slider and a slow curve.  When thrown effectively, McVay was able to bury his slider beneath the hands of right-handed hitters and work it down and away to lefties.  He struggled commanding the pitch in the first and second innings, but he really settled in during the third and fourth innings and was able to induce a number of strikeouts and weak groundouts.  Overall, the pitch flashed average to above average as it had late, sharp two-plane break.  McVay’s curveball was a get-me-over type of pitch that he used early in the count vs. both sides.  Although, he may have gotten one or two swings and misses on it the pitch itself was not very effective, and in its current form it would not be a legitimate offering at the next level. 

As previously mentioned, McVay was erratic mechanically and had some real difficulty repeating his delivery, which I believe may be traced back to an inconsistent landing point with his front leg.  When McVay missed with his fastball he was generally missing high, with his arm to dragging through the zone.  Similarly, his a number of his breaking balls were flat, spinners as he was not consistently getting on top of the pitches and replicating his release point.

McVay’s final line for the day: 4 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 9 K.  Overall, there were some obvious pros and cons with McVay’s outing.  Clearly, he struggled to command all of his pitches.  However, after a long first two innings (4 BB), McVay was able to settle in and was more consistent with his delivery as he only walked one batter over the next two innings.  McVay also flashed above-average velocity, especially for a pitcher from the left-side.  His slider, while inconsistent, also flashed above-average potential.  6’7” left-handed pitchers with two average to above-average pitchers do not grow on trees and if McVay if is able to remain health and refine his command as the season progresses he may see himself being drafted in early June. 

"Scouting" at Dick Howser (Part Two)

FSU v. FIU

In the second weekend of the college baseball season Florida State hosted Florida International (FIU) out of Miami, FL.  FIU plays in the Sun Belt Conference and presented a much deeper and more talented roster than Hofstra (whom FSU played in the weekend prior).  Florida State won the three game series, but FIU took game one.  I was only able to attend Games 1 and 2 of the series (and I will be writing about FSU players in more detail at a later date), but a number of Florida International players caught my eye.

The first player that jumped out to me was FIU center fielder Pablo Bermudez (R/R).  Bermudez is a senior out of Miami Shores, FL and is listed at 6’0” and 195 pounds.  Last season, as a junior Bermudez was the Conference Player of the Year, hit .373 with 16 2B, 5 HR, and 17 SB.  However, despite his solid season Bermudez was not selected in the MLB First-Year Player Draft.  Bermudez had a very nice series, including three hits in Game 1, but in scouting the player’s on-field results (especially at the amateur levels) are not as important as the process.   While he does not appear to be freakishly-athletic or super muscular, Bermudez seems to be every bit the 195 pounds he is listed.  Defensively, Bermudez appears to be up to the task in center field.  He looked comfortable patrolling the outfield and took good, accurate routes on both fly balls and base hits into the gaps.  The only time that I was able to clock Bermudez’s home to 1^st split was when he dropped down a bunt for a hit.  So, while Bermudez recorded a scorching 3.68 from the right side, the results are slightly skewed given his head start.  Regardless, a 3.68 on a bunt-for-hit situation should still clock around a 4.1 or 4.2 on a normal swing, which would give Bermudez a plus (60) to plus-plus (70) speed tool.  At the plate, Bermudez appeared comfortable, was rarely off-balance, and he displayed plate discipline throughout the weekend, delivering solid AB’s in Games 1 and 2.  While his power potential is rather limited, Bermudez displayed solid gap power, delivering a double to right-center field in Game 1.  Overall, I came away rather impressed and was surprised to learn that he was not drafted at all last year.  I fully expect Bermudez to be drafted this summer, but I think that the draft position (which round) will be dependent on his ability to handle top-notch pitching.  Florida State’s pitching is rather pedestrian this season, so it will be interesting to see how Bermudez fares against quality arms such as conference foe Tyler Ray of Troy.

The second FIU player that caught my eye was second baseman Tyler James Shantz (R/R).  Shantz is a junior from Greenwood Village, Colorado that is listed as 6’1” and 205 pounds.  Shantz did not appear to be that tall, but he definitely looks like he is a solid 200 pounds.  I honestly expected Shantz to be playing shortstop when FIU took the field given his athletic body type (but I will discuss FIU’s shortstop Julius Gaines next). Regardless, Shantz looked very comfortable at 2B and I think that he would probably be able to handle playing shortstop (at least at the college level) given how smooth his movements were.  Balls hit to Shantz were few and far between, but his footwork on a double play turn was smooth and his arm was adequate.  At the plate, Shantz showcased an (overly?) aggressive approach and appeared to be guessing quite a bit which left him vulnerable to off-speed pitches.  However, like Bermudez, he hit a double to right-center field.  Mechanically, his swing looked compact (and athletic) and the swing path allowed the barrel to stay within the zone for an extended period of time.  However, from what I saw in my limited time at the game, it appears that Shantz may have to focus on honing his approach and recognizing pitches earlier out of the hand.  Regardless, I think that Shantz is a very interesting prospect because of his athleticism/size and it will be fun to see how he develops as the year progresses.

Given my consternation with Shantz’s assignment to man the keystone, I was naturally curious about FIU’s shortstop, Julius Gaines.  Gaines, a freshman out of McDonough, Georgia, is listed at 6’0” and 165 pounds, but I think that his weight is probably closer to 150 pounds.  Because I hurriedly fell in love with Shantz’s athleticism, I felt a bit vindicated when Gaines made an error on a routine groundball to his right in the first inning of Game 1.  However, after watching Gaines play 17 more innings of baseball over the weekend, I realized that the kid could play ball and could be a player to watch in the coming years.  Clearly, Gaines’ lack of size and strength are detractors, but he is only a true freshman and given a couple of more years to fill out and work with strength coaches, he could easily end up weighing 175-180 pounds by the time he draft eligible.  Even taking into consideration his first-inning error, Gaines remained composed and displayed polish and solid fundamentals in the field.  I still have some questions about his athleticism and if he would be able to handle playing shortstop professionally—but again, he is young and I only got to see him play in two games, hardly enough time to get an entirely accurate portrait of his true defensive capabilities.  At the plate, Gaines showed the ability to make adjustments within AB (something that is rare for a true freshman in college).

Exhibit A: In Game 1, in his first AB (immediately after committing the aforementioned error) Gaines flailed at a breaking ball early in the count, but fought off a couple of fastballs and later in the count ripped a single on a breaking ball.

Exhibit B: In Game 2, Gaines worked a ten-pitch AB, fouling off a variety of pitches, including a handful of sliders that had given him trouble early in the count.  In the final pitch of his AB, Gaines made solid contact on a low-away FB and flew out to RF.  Given more time to add strength and refine his swing, that fly out becomes an extra base hit.

Overall, Gaines is an appealing young prospect and I really liked his approach at the plate and ability to make in-game adjustments.  Unfortunately, I was not able to get a home-1^st time to measure his speed, and I still have questions about his overall athleticism and ability to stay at shortstop, but I think that Gaines is a player worth watching, especially if he is able to add some muscle to his frame.

"Scouting" at Dick Howser (Part One)

Throughout the past year or so I have read and listened to many MLB prospect writers/experts that have dismissed many collegiate baseball players as non-prospects, deficient talent, career minor leaguers, or organizational fillers.  At first I did not agree with what these writers and experts were saying.  How could college baseball players not be legitimate talent?  However, as I’ve become more familiar with scouting and player development their theory makes sense.  Players drafted out of high school are thrust into a professional environment at the age of 17 or 18, while those drafted out of the Latin markets are afforded the ability to refine their tools and learn from professional instruction when they are 16.  There is no doubt that college coaches are knowledgeable, competent, and solid instructors and mentors, but NCAA rules limits practice time thereby cutting into the student-athletes development as baseball players.   So why the 16-22 year olds drafted out of high school or signed out of various Latin markets are constantly cultivating their tools without much limitation, collegiate baseball players are not able to consistently train and have to navigate class, homework, etc.  

The past few weekends I have been able to watch Florida State’s baseball team take on the Hofstra Pride and the Florida International Golden Panthers.  Rankings in college baseball typically from a number of sources (Coaches, NCBBWA, Baseball America, etc.), but just for perspective, FSU’s baseball team was ranked anywhere from #8 to #20 in the pre-season.  They lost a handful of key players to the MLB draft last year, including LHP Sean Gilmartin, who was drafted by Atlanta Braves in the first round year. 

As I have had the chance to attend (and actively “scout”) a number of minor-league baseball games and seen firsthand what top prospects look and perform like, I was interested to see how everything  would play out because I had never had the chance to attend a Division-I baseball game in person. 

FSU v. Hofstra

               

This three-game series was the opening weekend for college baseball in 2012 and FSU handled Hofstra pretty easily, taking all three games of the series.  While team results are not of any importance for scouts (or aspiring scouts), the talent disparity between the two programs was easily discernable.  However, in order to showcase my #want I will still run down a number of players that caught my eye, even if their professional prospects are slim to none (hey, they are all still more talented than I).

                Game 2 starter for Hofstra was RHP John Tiedemann, who listed as 6’0 and 175 pounds by the Hofstra website.  Tiedemann is a junior college transfer from Cuenta College in San Luis Opispo, California.  Tiedemann’s high three-quarter delivery was clean and simple but he still had some command issues and only lasted 2+ innings after walking four and giving up three hits (and three runs).  I didn’t have a radar gun and there was no listing on the stadium, but it was clear that he was throwing his fastball in the mid-80’s and might have run it up as high as 86-87 (maybe).  Even though I was not able to sit behind home plate, I did get to see him warm up in the bullpen before the game started, and his FB did show a bit of run and sink to it.  Additionally, Tiedemann featured a half-decent slider that he was able to use to induce a strikeout, but the pitch was not professional-quality as it did not feature an especially sharp or two-plane break.

                Hofstra’s Game 3 starter was John Schilt (listed a 6’1, 190).  His arsenal was extremely similar to Tiedemann’s, as his fastball was nowhere near overpowering and his breaking pitches were not especially sharp either.  Like Tiedemann, Schilt struggled with his command and was removed from the game after 0.2 IP with 5 BB.  Hofstra’s relief pitchers were not particularly impressive or relevant so I’ll move on to a few of their position players.

                SS Dalton Rouleau had a solid series and is the prototypical scrappy college shortstop.  Like Tiedmann, Rouleau is a transfer from California; however he attended Allan Hancock College.  Rouleau’s lack of size and projection is evident, as he is only 5-9 and 170 pounds (listed).  His size limits his pop and ability to drive balls into the gaps consistently, but throughout the series he worked the count and fouled off numerous pitches in two-strike counts.  While he was able to steal two bases in GM 2, he did so by smart and aggressive baserunning—he is by no means a blazer.  In GM 2 Rouleau was 1-3, 2 BB, 2 SB and in GM 3 he was 1-3.

                OF Danny Poma is yet another transfer out of California. He previously attended Cuesta College, but in 2011 he proved that he was up to the task at the Division-I level, as he garnered All-Colonial Athletic Association honors by hitting .382/.452/.528 with 16 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, and 20 SB.  Out of all of the Hofstra position players, Poma (listed at 6-1, 220) definitely looked the most like a future professional baseball player.  However, it should be noted that Poma does not really profile as a true prospect.  He has decent size and athleticism and his movements in the field looked fluid, but he did not play in center field.  Instead, in all three games Poma started at RF.  While it may not seem like a big deal, the fact that he does not play center field at the college level indicates that he will probably not be able to handle the increased defensive responsibilities at the professional level either.  Furthermore, while in RF he badly misplayed a fly ball (committing an error) and also took a few poor angles.  Now some of this may be because the wind was swirling throughout the game (and because it is still early in the season and teams from the north have had limited practice time outdoors) but it does raise potential questions about his defensive chops and focus.  Also, while I mentioned Poma’s athletic frame, his 4.5 time from home to first on a play that required maximum effort down the line signifies that speed is not necessarily one of Poma’s greatest assets despite his 20 SB last season (it also shows how pitchers and catchers struggle to control the running game at the college level).  At the plate Poma had an aggressive, yet solid approach and he displayed the ability to sit back and work to the opposite field.  Furthermore, Poma remained balanced throughout most of his ABs and was able to generate significant torque from his core and hips to flash gap-power.  Poma went 4-5 (2B and SB) and 0-4 in Games 2 and 3 respectively.

                Finally, Hofstra’s 1B Jared Hammer had solid a series offensively, going 2 for 5 in GM2 and 3 for 4 with a double in GM 3.  However, Hammer at 6-1, 235 is a typical “bad body” baseball player.  He only profiles as a first basemen, and given the offensive demands of the position he will have to hit consistently and for power to be a legitimate prospect.  While Hammer hit well during the series, it should be noted that FSU does not feature top-line or even plus pitching for the college level (much less even average and below-average in the professional realm).  So it should come as little surprise to find out that Hammer had some notable deficiencies in his swing.  For somebody his size, Hammer’s swing is not particularly long, but the swing path is not direct—rather it appeared as if he had a hitch that prevented him from consistently keeping the barrel through the zone.  As a result his swing was a bit loopy, which will leave him vulnerable to plus velocity in on the hands (provided he faces such quality in the future).  Regardless, Hammer showed good hand-eye coordination and ability to work the count and get the bat on the ball.  While his professional prospects are slim, if he continues to produce and get on base he will earn the chance to play at the next level until he fails.  

Upcoming Posts

While I had originally planned on including analysis of FSU players in this entry as well, I have decided to hold off on posting my thoughts on them until a later date, when I hope to publish more complete player-specific profiles and actual OFPs.  In my next entry, I will write about FSU's series with Florida International University and a number of Golden Panthers such as Pablo Bermudez, Tyler Shantz, and Mason McVay.

"Scouting" in the Southern League (Mobile v. Jacksonville)

On Wednesday, August 17^th and Saturday August 20^th I was able to attend games between the Mobile Bay Bears (AA Affiliate of Arizona Diamondbacks) and the Jacksonville Suns (AA Affiliate of Florida Marlins).  Both games featured top prospect starting pitchers for Mobile as RHP Jarrod Parker and RHP Trevor Bauer took the mound on the 17^th and 20^th respectively.  Parker was a first-round draft pick in 2007, but missed all of 2010 due to an arm injury.  Trevor Bauer was the third overall pick in this past May’s draft out of UCLA.  Both pitchers earned the win and had relatively solid outings statistically speaking as Parker’s line read 6 IP, 3H, 3 BB, 0 ER, and 6 K while Bauer’s read 5 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 ER (1 HR), and 8 K.

Parker’s fastball sat at 90-94 throughout his six innings of work and hit 95 on a couple different occasions.  His best secondary pitch was his slider which sat around 83-84 mph and featured a sharp, two-plane break.  Parker was able to throw the slider very effectively to lefties as he was able to both backdoor it and bury underneath their hands and at their feet.  I did not pick up on many changeups or curveballs by Parker, but it was more difficult to pick up on the subtleties of his performance as I was located in the bleachers in right center field.  However, Parker looked to have a very smooth and athletic throwing motion as he was able to consistently repeat his high-3/4 delivery from both the full windup and the stretch.  Parker scattered 3 hits, worked around 3 BB’s effectively, and was able to finish six innings without allowing a run.  Overall, Parker’s outing was not overly impressive but successful and solid in its own right.

Although Jarrod Parker is widely considered a top prospect in all of baseball, I was more excited to watch Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 MLB First-Year Player Draft, pitch as it was his second career start in AA.  There has been much written about Bauer’s dominating career at UCLA, his slight frame and unique delivery, and the possibility of him pitching in the big leagues sometime this year.  Scouts and many people within the blogosphere have been wondering whether or not Bauer should even be pitching at this pointbecause of his heavy workload (both innings and pitch count wise) this past spring/summer at UCLA.  Bauer’s outing was not as consistent as Parker’s was, yet his pure stuff seemed more impressive (It should be noted that for Bauer’s outing I was in the scouting section behind home plate, whereas for Parker’s outing I was in the outfield bleachers).  Bauer’s windup and delivery often draw comparisons to Tim Lincecum’s and it does seem similar in some regards, but some of this comparison is also undoubtedly due to the fact that both are smaller in stature yet have excellent fastball velocity and sharp breaking pitches.  Bauer’s delivery is a bit complicated but he manages it well and is able to repeat his delivery at a pretty consistent rate. However, there were times within this specific outing that it looked like he was laboring and fighting against himself (but this could be due to a number of other factors—fatigue, loss of concentration, etc.)  Bauer’s fastball ranged from 91-95 mph and featured some arm-side run to it. He flashed a sharp slider and 12-6 curveball that was absolutely devastating at times and completely fell off the table.  His changeup featured some arm-side run and sink to it but his command of the pitch was spotty.  As I mentioned earlier, Bauer walked three in his five innings and went to two and three ball counts many times so it was clear that Bauer was not working with his best stuff or command.  However, he still managed to strike out eight batters and shatter a few bats in only five innings of work.  The homerun that he allowed was to Kyle Skipworth, a struggling prospect of which I have touched upon before, on a changeup that appeared to be a case of poor location as it was belt high and inside to the left-hander.  All in all, Bauer’s performance was very impressive and it is easy to see why there have been talks about him pitching in the majors later this year (although whether he should or shouldn’t is still up for debate). 

I have covered many of the Jacksonville Suns’ position players in previous posts, but there were a few new players that briefly caught my eye.  SS Jeff Dominguez made a few nice plays in the field for the Suns including a great play up the middle that demonstrated his range and arm strength as his throw was able to beat Mobile’s leadoff hitter and RF Adam Eaton.  Dominguez, 26, had been called up to fill in for Chris Gutierrez, but has since been sent back down to the Marlin’s Florida State League (High-A) and appears to be an organizational player more than anything else, as his bat has been nothing throughout the minors.  The Suns’ RF Kyle Jensen was pretty impressive in both games that I saw (again limited sample size) as he showed the ability to barrel balls the other way (off Jarrod Parker) and flashed nice range in right field.

Another player that I got a quick look at was Suns’ reliever LHP Ramon Benjamin.  I had seen Benjamin before and was able to get a better sense of what kind of pitcher he was this time around because of my seats behind homeplate. Bejamin has a very complicated delivery that does not seem very conducive to a long, healthy career because it looks to put a lot of stress on his elbow, but he really only profiles a reliever and lefty-specialist anyway so it may not be a major issue. Benjamin was effectively wild in his appearance and was able to strike out (left-handed hitting) Mobile 3B Ryan Wheeler (who is having a great year at the plate) with a series of sliders in the dirt that were clocked at 85 mph and fastballs that were clocked between 90 and 95 mph.  Bejamin was also able to effectively work against right-handed hitters, although from my perspective it seems as if he would be only be suitable/effective as a lefty-specialist role at the major-league level.

A player that I profiled previously, RHP Bryan Evans started opposite Trevor Bauer but had a very poor evening, as he struggled to find the strike zone (walked opposing SP Bauer twice) and his line read 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 4 K. Evans’ was not very consistent with any of his pitches, but especially his slider which seemed to be much more flat than the previous outing that I was able to see (IMO his curveball still seems to be the sharper breaking ball and a better option than the slider, even though he throws it only around 74-75 mph).  His FB velocity was still between 85-91 mph but again his command was sharp enough and he paid it, after being pulled early.

Mobile’s lineup had two position players that particularly intrigued me, CF AJ Pollock and 3B Ryan Wheeler.  Both Pollock and Wheeler were high draft picks out of their respective colleges, Notre Dame and Loyola Marymount (CA).  Pollock flashed good speed throughout both of the games that I was able to attend, beating out a groundball to the 2^nd baseman.  He also flashed good range in CF and appeared to make good reads off the bat after the ball was put into play.  Ryan Wheeler, who I alluded to earlier when writing about Ramon Benjamin has had a solid year thus far and flashed his hit tool in both games that I attended.  Wheeler has a nice level swing plane and appeared to be very comfortable in the batter’s box as he was able to consistently repeat his swing mechanics and track balls out of the pitchers hand.  The one exception to this was his at-bat against Benjamin (also the only lefty that I remember seeing him face) where he looked all out of sorts.  It was hard to get a read on his work in the field because of limited opportunities, but he did not look to be very fluid when he allowed a foul pop-up to drop that probably should have been caught.  It would be foolish to draw any conclusions from one single play (and I’m sure numerous scouts could provide much more insight on Wheeler’s proficiency in the field), but it will be interesting to see how Wheeler develops in the field and if he can and will stick at 3B.

Updates

• Montgomery SP Chris Archer won Southern League Pitcher of the Week Award after allowing just 1 hit (albeit with 5 BB) in 7 innings of work. Archer was also just called up to AAA Durham.

• Montgomery SS Tim Beckham who was called up to AAA Durham over a week ago has continued to hit well at the next level as he has hit .291 with 3 HR in 55 AB.

Prospect Update

Last week I highlighted a number of prospects for the Florida Marlins and Tampa Rays after seeing their AA affiliates--the Jacksonville Suns and Montgomery Biscuits.  I haven't had a chance to attend/scout any more games since last week, so instead here is a brief update on what these prospects have done within the last week.


Montgomery Biscuits

• Tim Beckham, who I noted was easily the best prospect on the field during the Suns-Biscuits series, has since been promoted to the Ray's AAA-affiliate the Durham Bulls.  Beckham went 5-16 with 2 2B, 2 SB, and 4 RBI in his last five games at Montgomery.  The only other SS on Durham's roster at this point is Ray Olmedo, a 30 year old journeyman-type, so Beckham figures to receive a decent amount of playing type and those within the Rays organization will undoubtedly be keeping a close eye to see if Beckham can continue to produce offensively and improve his defense.
• OF Kyeong Kang has continued to get on base.  Kang has gone 4-15 with a HR, 4 RBI, and 2 BB in his last five games.  
• According to milb.com 2B Shawn O'Malley, a personal favorite of mine after seeing him play last week, has only played in one game since the Jacksonville series.  In his one appearance against the Mobile BayBears O'Malley was 0-3 with a BB, 2K, but also 2 SB.  The MTG Biscuits roster now lists O'Malley as SS and Cole Figueroa as a 2B (rather than 3B).  The Biscuits also appear to have called up SS prospect Hak-Ju Lee from the Florida State League, so it may be that O'Malley is dinged up, or more likely is splitting time between SS and 2B behind both Lee, a higher rated prospect, and Figueroa, who has a more potent, powerful bat than O'Malley.
• RHP Chris Archer has had one successful start since the series against Jacksonville.  Archer went 5 innings, gave up 3 hits, 1 earned run, 3 BB, and struck out 6.  
• RHP Alexander Colome who I covered in more detail in Part 3 of my analysis, also had a successful start against Mobile.  Colome went deeper into the game (7 IP) than Archer, thanks in part due to better command (only 2 BB).  However, Colome only struck out two batters in his seven innings of work, compared to his 6 K in 6.1 IP against Jacksonville. 
• RHP Matt Bush has appeared in two games since last week's series.  Both of his relief stints were 2 innings long and in his 4 IP Bush struck out 5 hitters without walking anybody.  However, he did allow a HR.

Jacksonville Suns 

• C Kyle Skipworth has continued to struggle at the plate going 2 for his last 16, with one of his hits being a HR.
• LF Jake Smolinski has also similarly since the series against Montgomery as he has also gone 2 for his last 16.
• RHP Bryan Evans has had one start since his victory against MTG on 8/3.  Evans went 7 innings against the Chattanooga Lookouts (AA for LA Dodgers) and somehow only let up 2 ER as he gave up 10 hits, walked 1, and struck out only 1.  This stat line, like Evans' pure stuff is not very impressive (although he did record 6K against MTG), but somehow Evans managed to record another quality start.
• 2B Jim Negrych has continued to produce solid results, as he has gone 9-18 in the past 6 games.  Negrych, who has no overwhelming tools per-se has been very productive all season long for Jacksonville, with a slash line of .320/.389/.421.  However, until Negrych develops more pop in his bat  it may be difficult for him to be considered a true prospect.  Regardless, if he continues to hit for average he could eventually find himself on a MLB bench as a role player.