5/6/12 and 5/7/12: Trevor Bauer, Jose Alvarez, Tyler Skaggs

On Sunday 5/6/12 and Monday 5/7/12 I attended two games of a five game series between the Mobile Bay Bears and the Jacksonville Suns.  I’ve covered the Suns and Bay Bears at length in some of my posts from last year.  Also, more recently I’ve posted a few columns revisiting some of my past observations for prospects such as Trevor Bauer.

Trevor Bauer (MOB)

I was fortunate enough to see Bauer again in Sunday’s contest.  In my 3Update on 5/1/12 I noted that there was still room for improvement as the right-hander had been struggling to pitch deep into games with a propensity for walks and high pitch counts.  Regardless, I still loved the pure stuff that Bauer brought to the table and believed that he would be able to pitch for the Diamondbacks in the near future.

His start on 5/6/12 was solid but I believe that his final line (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 5 K) was more impressive than the outing itself.  Although he only gave up one hit, Bauer struggled more than I thought he would in the first and second innings.  He consistently missed up in the zone with his fastball and had a couple of breaking balls hang over the middle of the plate that more polished hitters would have taken advantage of.  Furthermore, the fastball velocity was down significantly as it ranged from 87-91 mph.  However, as the evening progressed Bauer got into a bit of a groove, and from the third inning until his exit in the seventh inning his fastball would sit in the 89-93 mph range.  On a couple different occasions Bauer was able to reach back and hit 95.  He did not utilize the slider much except for a few sequences in the middle innings, but the pitch ranged from 78-85 mph and featured late, sharp 10-4 break that has the ability to miss bats.  Bauer’s changeup was between 80-83 mph with fade and arm-side run.  Like the slider, Bauer’s changeup was not utilized too much, so it was hard to get an accurate read on the potential of the pitch, but I think that he has developed a better feel for the pitch since I saw him in August of 2011.  Bauer was more liberal with the use of his curveball, which can be an absolutely devastating pitch.  The curveball sat between 73-77 mph, and while he threw a few hangers, the ones that were thrown harder (75-77 mph) were sharp and flashed as a plus-plus pitch at the MLB level. 

However, Bauer still struggled with his command, issuing 5 walks and going to many 2-3 ball counts throughout the outing.   While I don’t think that he had his best fastball (stuff and command-wise), if Bauer was able to command his secondary pitches (especially the CRV) more effectively I don’t think he would have been touched.  Some of this has to do with the limitations of the Suns’ lineup, but Bauer’s curveball was almost too good at times—he was not getting hitters to chase the pitch and was forced to revert to his fastball (which they were sitting on). 

There was definitely room for improvement, but I still liked what I saw from Bauer.  I got the feeling that Bauer was actually toying with JAX and was tinkering with things to try and see what could work or be effective.  There is a risk-reward with such an approach, as some pitchers can get too entrapped in this framework and forget about what got them there in the first place.  Hopefully, Bauer is able to further refine his command and efficiency because I think he still has the ceiling of an ace.

Jose Alvarez (JAX)

Bauer’s counterpart for the Jacksonville Suns was LHP Jose Alvarez.  The first thing that I noticed about Alvarez was his height, or lack thereof.  Alvarez is listed as 5’10, but I would not be surprised if he is 5’9 or perhaps 5’8.  Alvarez was extremely aggressive and pounded the strike zone with predominately fastballs with some arm-side run that sat between 87 and 91 mph.  Alvarez did not throw many off-speed pitches, but his go-to secondary pitch was a 81-85 slider that he used as a cutter against RH batters.  In my opinion, Alvarez did not utilize this pitch enough, and while it is not a plus pitch by any stretch of the imagination I think that it has the potential to be an average (50) pitch and is currently a 40-45 offering.  Alvarez threw his changeup even less frequently than the slider, so it was hard to get an accurate reading, but the pitch sat between 78-80 mph and did not appear to be a quality third pitch.  Alvarez, celebrating his 23^rd birthday on 5/6/12, caught the loss ().  I believe that Alvarez’s downfall was his inability and/or unwillingness to throw his secondary pitches more frequently.  I like Alvarez’s mentality and inclination to challenge hitters, but he does not feature an above-average fastball and his short stature does not allow him to throw from a downhill plane.  With an average fastball and average slider/cutter hybrid I can see Alvarez as a MLB middle reliever down the road.

Tyler Skaggs (MOB)

On Monday, 5/7/12, I was able to catch a few innings of the second game of the Mobile-Jacksonville series.  I went purely to watch Tyler Skaggs of Mobile pitch, as I have read many glowing reports about the young left-hander.  Skaggs pitched very well (7 IP, 5 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 7 K) and, like teammate Trevor Bauer, was able to stymie a weak and overmatched Jacksonville lineup.  Skaggs threw his fastball between 90 and 93 mph, and while he opened up early and missed high and away with the pitch occasionally, his command of the pitch was solid.  Skaggs slowed his arm speed a bit when he delivered his changeup, but the pitch, which sat around 80-82 mph, featured some fade and induced a couple of weak swings.  Currently, I would guess that the pitch is a fringe-average (45-50) MLB offering with the chance to be average to solid-average (50-55) with further refinement.  Finally, Skaggs’ curveball is a monster of a pitch.  Kevin Goldstein has noted that it is regarded as the best in the system, but I thought that such an assertion had to be hyperbole given Bauer’s hook.  However, on Monday I became a believer as the Skaggs’ curveball is a sharp 12-6’er and current 70-pitch that completely falls off of the table when thrown with a little more velocity (77 mph).  Skaggs’ slower (74-75 mph) curveballs were still very sharp and effective, but he did leave a few up in the zone as his arm had a tendency to drag behind his body before release. 

I did not watch Skaggs’ entire seven inning performance, but I left pretty impressed with what I had seen (stuffwise), although a recent article by Fangraphs’ and Scouting the Sally’s Mike Newman really resonated.  Newman discussed his reservations with Skaggs’ propensity to throw his curveball as not many current MLB pitchers utilize their curveball more than 30% of the time.  Skaggs did throw his curveball quite a lot on Monday (and one cannot blame him given the effectiveness of the pitch).  However, Skaggs needs to make sure that he does not fall in love with the pitch.  Minor-leaguers may not be able to handle his curve, but major-league bats may be able to exploit it if he throws it too often.  Skaggs is currently 20 years old and more than holding his own in AA, so one cannot be too critical of his performance thus far, but it will definitely be interesting to see how Skaggs progresses in the years to come.