3Update 5/1/2012

In my last entry I re-examined some of my initial observations from 2011 on a number of players in the Tampa Bay Rays system. 

This time I will re-examine some of my scouting notes from various other prospects that I was able to see in game action.

1)      Jarrod Parker (RHP)

I was fortunate enough to watch Parker pitch against the Jacksonville Suns last August.  Parker was considered a top prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks system and I very excited about the opportunity to see Parker in action.  Here is what I wrote last year:

 Parker’s fastball sat at 90-94 throughout his six innings of work and hit 95 on a couple different occasions.  His best secondary pitch was his slider which sat around 83-84 mph and featured a sharp, two-plane break.  Parker was able to throw the slider very effectively to lefties as he was able to both backdoor it and bury underneath their hands and at their feet.

 Parker looked to have a very smooth and athletic throwing motion as he was able to consistently repeat his high-3/4 delivery from both the full windup and the stretch.  Parker scattered 3 hits, worked around 3 BB’s effectively, and was able to finish six innings without allowing a run.  Overall, Parker’s outing was not overly impressive but successful and solid in its own right.

 Parker finished 2011 with an 11-8 record, 3.79 ERA, and 112 K, and 112 H in 130.2 IP for AA Mobile. He also made his major league debut and pitched well (5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K).  In the offseason, Parker was part of a package of prospects that were shipped to Oakland for established starter Trevor Cahill.  This season, Parker has made one spot start in Oakland, going 6.1 innings and allowing seven hits, one walk, one earned run, and striking out five.  He has also been stellar in four starts for AAA for Sacramento (1-0, 20.2 IP, 22 H, 21 K, 2.18 ERA).  Some people have voiced their concerns about Parker’s ability to handle a heavy workload (~180 or 200 IP) because he missed all of 2010 recovering from Tommy John surgery and his velocity has not returned to the 96-98 MPH range.  However, given the success that Parker has had over the last season and change, and from what I was able to see in my limited time with him, I think that Parker will become a successful major league pitcher.  While he will undoubtedly encounter some struggles once he lands at the MLB level for an entire season, I think that Parker has the arsenal and ability to establish himself as a solid number two starter.

2)      Trevor Bauer (RHP)

Here is what I wrote about Bauer last year:

Although Jarrod Parker is widely considered a top prospect in all of baseball, I was more excited to watch Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 MLB First-Year Player Draft, pitch as it was his second career start in AA.  There has been much written about Bauer’s dominating career at UCLA, his slight frame and unique delivery, and the possibility of him pitching in the big leagues sometime this year.  Scouts and many people within the blogosphere have been wondering whether or not Bauer should even be pitching at this point because of his heavy workload (both innings and pitch count wise) this past spring/summer at UCLA.  Bauer’s outing was not as consistent as Parker’s was, yet his pure stuff seemed more impressive. Bauer’s windup and delivery often draw comparisons to Tim Lincecum’s and it does seem similar in some regards, but some of this comparison is also undoubtedly due to the fact that both are smaller in stature yet have excellent fastball velocity and sharp breaking pitches.  Bauer’s delivery is a bit complicated but he manages it well and is able to repeat his delivery at a pretty consistent rate. However, there were times within this specific outing that it looked like he was laboring and fighting against himself (but this could be due to a number of other factors—fatigue, loss of concentration, etc.)  Bauer’s fastball ranged from 91-95 mph and featured some arm-side run to it. He flashed a sharp slider and 12-6 curveball that was absolutely devastating at times and completely fell off the table.  His changeup featured some arm-side run and sink to it but his command of the pitch was spotty.  As I mentioned earlier, Bauer walked three in his five innings and went to two and three ball counts many times so it was clear that Bauer was not working with his best stuff or command.  However, he still managed to strike out eight batters and shatter a few bats in only five innings of work.  The homerun that he allowed was to Kyle Skipworth, a struggling prospect of which I have touched upon before, on a changeup that appeared to be a case of poor location as it was belt high and inside to the left-hander.  All in all, Bauer’s performance was very impressive and it is easy to see why there have been talks about him pitching in the majors later this year (although whether he should or shouldn’t is still up for debate).
 
Bauer only started seven games in the minor leagues last year (3 in High-A Visalia and 4 in AA Mobile) and finished with a combined line of 1-2, 5.96 ERA, 25.2 IP, 27 H, 12 BB, 43 K.  Many minor league statistics can be misleading, so the ERA and W-L should not be taken as indicators of Bauer’s true talent.  Instead, his ability to miss bats (43 K in 25.2 IP) shows that Bauer’s pure stuff is excellent.  Coming into the 2012 season there was a significant amount of buzz regarding Bauer’s assignment out of spring training—some believed he would be assigned to the big club.  However, Bauer was assigned to AA Mobile and has performed well thus far.  Through 5 starts, Bauer is 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 37 K in 28.2 IP.  While his W-L and ERA have improved significantly, there is still much room for improvement.  Bauer has averaged less than 6 IP/start and while some of this may be by design to limit his workload before he is eventually called up, there is something to be said for a starter that cannot eat innings and pitch efficiently.  His command has been problematic as well as he has surrendered 17 BB in his 28.2 IP.  While this is not an astounding number of free passes, major-league quality hitters will be able to lay off certain off-speed offerings that AA hitters cannot.   Although I only saw Bauer pitch once, it was easy to see that his pure stuff was outstanding and major-league quality.  He struggled to locate all of his pitches consistently in that start against the Jacksonville Suns and has still had some issues thus far in 2012.  However, I have no doubts that Bauer will eventually work out the kinks and pitch for the Diamondbacks in the near future.  If he is able to refine his command and adjust to major-league quality hitters, Bauer will be an ace.

 3/4) AJ Pollock (CF) and Ryan Wheeler (3B)

 Because I was so focused on Parker and Bauer, I had limited notes on AJ Pollock and Ryan Wheeler, but here is what I had to say:

 Mobile’s lineup had two position players that particularly intrigued me, CF AJ Pollock and 3B Ryan Wheeler.  Both Pollock and Wheeler were high draft picks out of their respective colleges, Notre Dame and Loyola Marymount (CA).  Pollock flashed good speed throughout both of the games that I was able to attend, beating out a groundball to the 2nd baseman.  He also flashed good range in CF and appeared to make good reads off the bat after the ball was put into play.  Ryan Wheeler, who I alluded to earlier when writing about Ramon Benjamin has had a solid year thus far and flashed his hit tool in both games that I attended.  Wheeler has a nice level swing plane and appeared to be very comfortable in the batter’s box as he was able to consistently repeat his swing mechanics and track balls out of the pitchers hand.  The one exception to this was his at-bat against Benjamin (also the only lefty that I remember seeing him face) where he looked all out of sorts.  It was hard to get a read on his work in the field because of limited opportunities, but he did not look to be very fluid when he allowed a foul pop-up to drop that probably should have been caught.  It would be foolish to draw any conclusions from one single play (and I’m sure numerous scouts could provide much more insight on Wheeler’s proficiency in the field), but it will be interesting to see how Wheeler develops in the field and if he can and will stick at 3B.

Pollock finished 2011 in Mobile and was very successful, hitting .307 with 41 2B, 5 3B, and 8 HR to go along with 36 SB. Clearly, Pollock, as the 17^th overall pick in the 2009 draft out of Notre Dame, was able to handle AA ball. His speed and defense are his biggest assets and provide the most value for his club.  He started 2012 at AAA Reno and was hitting .340 with 6 2B through 53 AB before being called up to Arizona when Chris Young was injured.  He has struggled since being called up, going 3-22, but such struggles are to be expected from a young player being forced into big-league action so early in the season.  Pollock will be sent back down to AAA once Young is healthy again, but Pollock is likely to see some more action later this year and will probably be a September call-up.  While he doesn’t have much power and does not walk much (only 44 BB in 550 AB in 2011) Pollock is a valuable asset but he does not possess an elite ceiling and probably projects to be an average MLB CF at best.

 Wheeler also finished 2011 in Mobile, hitting .294 (.358 OBP) with 30 2B and 16 HR in 480 AB.  Kevin Goldstein did not have Wheeler rated in his Top 20 for the Diamondbacks, but minorleagueball.com’s John Sickels had Wheeler listed as #14.  Last year, as one can see in my notes, I expressed my reservations about Wheeler’s ability field but was unwilling to commit to throwing a grade or making a full evaluation on it given the lack of opportunities Wheeler had.  In his rankings Sickels notes that Wheeler’s glove is “mediocre.”  Wheeler has gotten off to a hot start in 2012 in AAA Reno as he is hitting .316 with 5 2B and 4 HR in 95 AB.  It appears as if Wheeler, like Pollock, has established himself as a polished yet unspectacular commodity.  While Pollock lacks the power and patience, Wheeler is limited defensively and may not be a reliable everyday third baseman.  If that is the case, Wheeler will probably be forced into becoming a part-time/bench option which is still an important if not gaudy role for a major league club to fill.