Thoughts on the Bristol White Sox

A couple of days ago I included some of my thoughts and observations about a number of players from the Burlington Royals, and today I am going to discuss what I saw from their opponents from July 4-6, the Bristol White Sox.  As I mentioned previously, I wrote a feature article on the White Sox’s first-round draft pick, Courtney Hawkins for Baseball America (link). 

The BA article was predominately positive, as it highlighted Hawkins’ raw tools and potential for future success.  Indeed, there is much to like about Hawkins.  Like Starling, Hawkins’ body immediately stands out.  However, unlike Starling, Hawkins does not need to add and probably should not add more muscle mass at this point in his career.  The 18-year-old is listed at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, which definitely appeared accurate in person.  Based on his size and athleticism alone, one can easily project power in Hawkins’ future, and a scout in attendance noted that Hawkins generates plus bat speed with his strong wrists.  While he patrolled center field for Bristol, the scout felt that Hawkins may have to move to a corner outfield spot down the road.  I agree and was a little disappointed by his speed, as Hawkins consistently turned in 4.4 and 4.5 seconds on home-to-first splits.  He does feature strong arm and looked to make instinctive reads off of the bat, so he should be fine in either outfield position.  At the plate Hawkins struggled a bit throughout the series.  The first game he was pitched backwards almost every at-bat, which he clearly was not expecting. He took a couple of ugly swings and did not hit a ball hard.  However, he showed some flashes of his potential in the final two games of the series, and he showed the ability to adjust to how pitchers attacked him.  After striking out on three straight fastballs in his 1^st AB of the second game, he jumped on a first pitch fastball and drove it for a double into the right-center field gap in his second at bat.  Similarly, later in the series he put together some good AB and drove a 2-2 slider back up the middle for a hard-hit single.  While I was at first expecting a bit more out of the first-round talent, I learned that it would be foolish to expect too much from a teenager getting his first taste of professional ball.  The bottom line is that Hawkins has the physical tool to succeed at the highest level—the ability to make key adjustments and respond to failure will ultimately determine just how far Hawkins will go.

Unfortunately, none of the other players that I saw for Bristol particularly caught my eye.  I asked the scout that I sat with for two of the games if there were any players to look out for, but he also seemed to think that Hawkins was the only real ‘guy’ that the team had.  With that being said, I still took down some notes on a handful of players, such as Nick Basto, James Hudelson, Steven Nikorak, Jake Cose and Jefferson Olacio. 

Olacio is the player with the most potential, as the 18-year-old is a 6-foot-7, 230 pound left-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic.  In his previous start Olacio had mowed down his competition, striking out seven in five innings of work and not walking any. However, against Burlington both his stuff and command were lacking any #veneno.  It seemed as if his command issue stemmed from inconsistent mechanics—he had a tendency to pitch with only his upper half.  An inconsistent release point combined with some significant arm drag led to a rather unremarkable performance in which Olacio’s fastball ranged from 87-90 mph and his breaking balls (79-82) were too often either 58-footers or spinning across the heart of plate.  When it was all said and done with Olacio had thrown four innings, allowed four runs on two hits and seven walks, while striking out three. While the start was not impressive by any means, it is important to recognize that Olacio is still on 18 years old and may still be growing into his body.  Over the next few years he must continue to work hard to refine his movements, mechanics, and feel for pitching in order to be more consistent.

Some brief thoughts on the other guys that I mentioned:

·         I expected more out of Nick Basto. The shortstop is a fifth-round pick from this year’s draft, but he is not an elite athlete and will probably have to move to second, or more likely third base down the line. He put together a couple of scrappy AB, but was overpowered by fringe-average fastballs in on his hands. The scout that I talked to was not very impressed and felt that he would turn into a punch-less 3^rd baseman.

·         3B Steve Nikorak (R/R 6’2, 215) made some nice plays defensively—one to his left and one to his right—that required accurate and strong throws from his knees.  While he flashed the leather and had an athletic body type, the bat was nothing special, and he is a 22-year-old that was just drafted out of college (Temple), so one would be wise to remain skeptical until he continues to hit up the minor-league ladder.

·         RHP Jake Cose (6’5, 180) is 21-years-old in his 2^nd year w/ Bristol who was drafted in the 27^th round of the 2011 draft.  He showed some decent stuff (88-91 FB, 78-81 SL, 78-81 CH) and has a projectable frame, but I think that if he was able to put on some more muscle mass he would be able to add some velo and improve a fringy arsenal into a more potent collection.

·         RHP James Hudelson (6’4, 200) is a 22 year old out of Missouri that is in his first season of professional ball. He featured a ¾ delivery that created some deception and a nice angle for his 88-90 mph 2-seamer.  He also flashed a couple of average sliders between 74-75 mph.  Given his age and limited upside, Hudelson’s ceiling appears to be a mid-relief type of guy.

"Scouting" in North Carolina

Last week I started my summer internship with Baseball America in Durham, North Carolina.  While the majority of my work for BA will be conducted within the confines of their main office, there are a number of minor league teams within two or three hours.  Earlier this week the site posted an article that I wrote about the Chicago White Sox’s recent first round pick, Courtney Hawkins, which you can read here (if you are a BA subscriber).  If you are not a BA subscriber, the basic gist of the piece is that while Hawkins is “struggling”, the 18-year old is still getting adjusted to the rigors of professional baseball and has the raw ingredients for a special major-league player. 

               

I was able to see Hawkins and a number of other notable and rather unremarkable young players last week, as I attended three games between the Burlington Royals and the Bristol White Sox of the Rookie-level Appalachian League, and one game between the Delmarva Shorebirds and the Hickory Crawdads of the Low-A South Atlantic League.   

               

                Today I’ll include some of my notes and thoughts on various Burlington Royals, but tomorrow or the next few days I will write about some players from Bristol, Delmarva, and Hickory.

                Burlington features a number of impressive players for such a low level of the minor leagues.  The first and most well-known is center fielder Bubba Starling, a first-round pick in 2011 who is a tremendous athlete.  Listed at 6-foot-4 and 180 pounds, Starling signed for around $5 million, spurning the Nebraska Cornhuskers football team for a chance to play professional baseball.  He is extremely athletic and the body absolutely looks the part.  He has the frame to add some more muscle mass as he grows older, but he definitely looks like he belongs when he steps on the field.  Even though I only saw three games, it was apparent that Starling is still raw, but the tools are there.  His swing has some holes in it and I think that he will struggle with quality breaking balls all the way up the ladder, but he generates bat speed and showed the ability to work the opposite field, as he smashed a low and away fastball (that was probably a ball) into the right-CF gap for a triple.  His arm and speed are both solid-average to plus tools, and scouts project plus-power onto his bat.

               

Burlington’s second baseman for the series was Kenny Diekroeger, a 21-year-old 4^th round pick in this past month’s draft from Stanford University.  You can read more about Diekroeger’s path to the big leagues from one of my fellow BA interns, John Sandberg, here.  Diekroeger has a solid build and good body and is listed at 6’2, 190, which seemed accurate when looking in person.  He moved over to shortstop for one game in the series, but he definitely profiles better at second base.  He is athletic and made a very nice play on a high chopper to his left that required an accurate, quick release.  While I only saw him make a few plays in the field, I’d say that he profiles as an average defensive second baseman.  Like most prospects, Diekroeger’s future will rely on his ability to hit.  While at Stanford he struggled to make a consistent impact, and his production actually decreased each season.  While his numbers have been solid thus far and he performed well in the series, I was not sold on his potential.  A couple of his hits were jam-shots and bleeders that found open space and I really believe that anything above average velocity will give Diekroeger trouble.  Given his age, I’d expect Diekroeger to move up to Low-A, if not High-A to start off 2013.  As he climbs the ladder we will truly see what kind of bat Diekroeger brings to the table.

               

Many of the other Royals were solid players, but lack the pedigree or notoriety of Starling and Diekroeger.  In the above referenced piece about Diekroger, is a short blog post on Terrance Gore, a diminutive 20-year-old outfielder with blazing speed.  He has a 30 (maybe 20) grade arm and will probably be reduced to a corner outfield spot (unless they are willing to take the defensive hit), which greatly reduces his value.  He has been rumored to be clocked at an astounding 3.8 seconds to first base from the right-side which grades out higher than “80” or elite, but I clocked him at a 4.03 while a scout I sat with had him a 3.95 on another occasion.  Regardless, Gore’s speed makes him an interesting prospect to keep an eye on.  I really liked a pair of left-handed starters that the Royals threw out, Patrick Conroy and Colin Rodgers, but because I was focused on Hawkins, Gore, and the other top guys (for my piece for Baseball America) I was not able to get as much detail as I’d like.  Regardless, here are some of my skeleton notes for the more under-the-radar Burlington guys:

·         LHP Patrick Conroy (6’4, 218), 20 years old, 1^st season out of J.C. (Marin CC in Cali), 32^nd round pick

o   86-89 FB

o   84-85 cutter

o   75-77 curve

o   Pitchability guy—still needs to polish some of his secondary command, but overall strong control

·         SS Humberto Arteaga (R/R, 6’1, 160), 18 year old out of Caracas

o   Listed as best fielder in Royal’s farm system by Baseball America, but I did not see it at all during the series

§  Made a couple of errors on routine plays, also did not appear to get to balls in the hole that I thought he had a shot for

§  Didn’t appear to be playing hard, running hard down the line

o   Good frame, body—can add mass down the road, needs to

o   F-8

o   5-3

o   1b (2-2 count; made nice adjustment—after missing slider earlier, went back up middle for hit)

·         RHP Jake Junis (6’3, 210), 29^th round out of Illinois HS in 2012

o   87-90 FB

o   78-81 CH

·         LHP Daniel Stumpf (6’2, 200), San Jacinto College, 21 years old, 9^th round pick in 2012

o   Good CH

o   Late life, burst on FB

·         LHP Colin Rodgers (6’0, 180), 3^rd round pick in 2012 out of LA HS, 18 years old

o   86-88 FB

o   82-83 SL/CT (scout said created good angle with arm action)

o   72-75 CRV

o   74-75 CH

A Few Thoughts on James Ramsey

After being picked 23^rd overall in the 2012 MLB First-Year Player Draft, Florida State’s James Ramsey agreed to terms with the St. Louis Cardinals earlier this week. Many well-respected baseball writers were not thrilled with St. Louis’ pick of Ramsey, feeling that the 23^rd overall spot was a bit of a reach for a player that most considered to be a sandwich-round or 2^nd round type of talent.  However, the Cardinals also selected Texas A&M’s Michael Wacha, considered to be a difficult sign, in the first round so many believed that St. Louis selected Ramsey as a safe, affordable option.  However, while it was generally thought that the Cardinals and Ramsey would agree to a deal well-below the assigned slot value for the 23^rd overall pick ($1.775 million), Baseball America’s Jim Callis reported that the two sides agreed to terms on a bonus worth around $1.6 million.  As a college senior, Ramsey had little leverage in the contract negotiations, so some people may wonder why St. Louis offered so much money for a player that most considered to be a reach. 

On MLB Network’s coverage of the draft a few weeks ago, Peter Gammons mentioned that Ramsey is an “area scout”, explaining that while Ramsey’s pure physical tools won’t jump off the board, people that are able to see him play consistently (like area scouts) will recognize that he is a legitimate prospect.  I had the pleasure of watching Ramsey play many games this season for Florida State, and after seeing him day in and day out I truly think that he is a first-round type of talent.   It appears as if the St. Louis Cardinals brass and scouting/development team similarly value Ramsey, which is why they were willing to take him earlier than projected and still offer a bonus within spitting distance of the assigned value.

(Too) Much was made of Ramsey’s makeup and leadership qualities on MLB Network’s draft coverage, and while he does appear to be a tremendous person with an exceptional work ethic and dedication to the game, I think that many of his physical attributes were overlooked.  Ramsey is not a physically imposing figure by any stretch of the imagination, as he is listed at 6’0 and 190 pounds, but is probably closer to 5’10” or 5’11”.  He does not possess great speed, but throughout the season he consistently clocked 4.0 or 4.1 times from home to first, which generally profiles as plus (60) speed on the scouting scale.  However, given Ramsey’s hard-nosed style of play, his “true” speed is probably solid-average (55).  Defensively, Ramsey features a strong and accurate arm.  In 2011, as a junior, Ramsey played right field and finished the season with three outfield assists.  This past season Ramsey moved over to center field, and he finished the season with four assists.  While it can be problematic to assign a judge a player’s defensive capabilities based off of statistics or just a couple of games, I am confident in assigning Ramsey a solid-average (55) to average (50) arm. 

Ramsey, like many Florida State Seminoles, is extremely patient and confident at the plate.  He has shown a propensity to work deep into counts and is comfortable hitting behind in the count, if necessary.  Furthermore, Ramsey showed the ability to make in-game and in-AB adjustments while dealing with the comparatively wide and inconsistent NCAA strike zone.  He likes to let the ball get deep on him and uses the entire field effectively, as he peppered the left-center field gap throughout the year.  However, he also features strong, quick wrists and has flashed the ability to turn on inside pitches and handle solid-average and plus velocity.  However, the only real question that I have with Ramsey is his ability to handle left-handed velocity.  Many LHP with plus velocity are picked high in the MLB draft out of high school and do not step foot on a college campus, and I cannot remember Ramsey hitting against many left-handed pitchers with 92 MPH+ velocity.  Furthermore, Ramsey appeared to be a bit susceptible to velocity (from RHP and LHP) right underneath his hands, which will be something that he will have to adjust to in order to progress through the minor leagues.  With all of that being said, most, if not all, players struggle with handling plus velocity from same-sided pitchers, so at this point it does not seem to be much of a concern.  Overall, Ramsey had an extremely productive college career, and I think that he has the physical skills, coordination, and approach to be an average (50; .270) to plus (60; .300) hitter at the MLB level if he reaches his ceiling. 

As I mentioned earlier, Ramsey is not a physically imposing figure, but he is athletic, possesses a strong core, and is able to create some torque with his swing mechanics.  He will never be a guy that projects to hit 30+ homeruns at the major league level, but Ramsey did show the ability a charge into the ball after the well-documented bat changes that the NCAA implemented, as he hit 10 homers as a junior in 2011 and 13 this past season.  Ramsey also had a solid showing in the Cape Cod League in the Summer of 2011, hitting an impressive nine home runs in 131 AB using wood bats against some of the top college pitching.  Regardless, Ramsey still appears to be a more a gap-to-gap, doubles-type hitter that will pepper in home runs.   As a result, Ramsey’s power projects to be “below average” (40 grade) to “fringe-average” (45-50 grade) meaning that he should be expected (if he reaches his ceiling) to hit between 14 and 25 homeruns in a full season’s worth of at-bats.

Therefore, Ramsey’s value at the major-league level will be heavily reliant on his ability to continue playing center field.  The requirements of a corner outfielder’s bat are far more taxing than that of a center fielder, as the typical right/left fielder is generally expected to provide significant power to the lineup.  Given Ramsey’s relatively “limited” power projection, it is imperative that he sticks in CF in order to consistently contribute at a high-level in the majors.  Defense is hard to read because a position player may not get many opportunities to field balls in play.  Luckily, I was able to watch Ramsey play throughout the year, so I feel that I was able to get a decent feel for his abilities.  I do think that he be serviceable in center field.  Ramsey has solid instincts a quick first step, makes quick reads, and while he is not a burner, his solid-average speed is good enough to help him get to balls in the gap.  In a few years, Ramsey be forced to change positions, but I asked a scout for the Seattle Mariners what he thought about Ramsey’s defensive prospects and he said that he liked what he saw from him, so it appears as if Ramsey may be able to patrol CF for the near future.

Overall, I was extremely pleased to see James Ramsey get picked in the first round, and even more pleased to see that the Cardinals value his play so highly.  While he may not be a tools freak and does not feature the upside of some of the other first-round picks, I still believe he is a first round talent that will contribute at the major league level, which is something that cannot be said for many other former, current, and future prospects.

5/6/12 and 5/7/12: Bryan Evans, Jake Smolinski, Kyle Jensen, and others Chase the Dream

I finished yesterday’s post discussing Diamondbacks LHP prospect Tyler Skaggs. His counterpart on Monday afternoon’s start was RHP Bryan Evans.  

Bryan Evans

This was the third time that I have been able to see Evans pitch, as I had seen him pitch twice last year (once against Tampa Bay Ray prospect Jesus Colome and once against Trevor Bauer).  Here is what I had to say about Evans’ first start last season:

Colome's counterpart on Wednesday night was Bryan Evans, a 14th round draft pick out of UC-Davis in  2008.  Evans, 24, has spent the better part of the past two years in Florida State League and the Midwest League and is probably not projected to be a true prospect.  His minor-league K/IP statistics are not all that impressive and his arsenal is not made up of typical swing-and-miss type stuff.  However, I came away liking what I saw from Evans, even though there have been thousands of pitchers with similar stuff that have never sniffed the big leagues.  Evans' delivery is a bit complicated and it appears as if when he releases the ball he is throwing across his body or is facing the hitter at an extreme angle.  His arm angle is over-the-top and the best comparison that I can give is kind of a hybrid mix between Josh Collmenter and Jered Weaver.  The scouts were clearly there to see Colome (even though Evans was also just recently called up to AA), as most put their radar guns down when Evans was on the mound.  However, I was able to see from those that did keep the guns out that Evans' fastball sat at 85-90 mph, his slider clocked in around 81 mph, and his curve/slurve measured in at 74 mph.  I did not get a good read on what the velocity was on his changeup, but the pitch did feature some arm-side run (although he did telegraph a few by slowing down his windup considerably).  His fastball also featured some good arm-side run and he was able to sneak some in on right handed hitters.  Evans' pure stuff was nowhere near as dominant as Colome's but his line was a bit better for the night as he went 6+ innings (walked first two guys in 7th) for the win, giving up 6 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, while striking out 6.  Evans' future is nowhere near as bright as Colome's given his age and lack of velo, but his windup and pitching mechanics were deceptive enough to hitters that he was able to strike out 6 in 6 innings of work.  Given that this was only his 3rd appearance and 1st start in AA, it remains to be seen if hitters will be able to adjust and exploit Evans' pedestrian stuff or if his pitchability and deception will allow him to succeed and climb the ladder of professional baseball.

He struggled in his second start of 2011, against Trevor Bauer.  Here is what I wrote about that specific outing:

A player that I profiled previously, RHP Bryan Evans started opposite Trevor Bauer but had a very poor evening, as he struggled to find the strike zone (walked opposing SP Bauer twice) and his line read 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 4 K. Evans’ was not very consistent with any of his pitches, but especially his slider which seemed to be much more flat than the previous outing that I was able to see (IMO his curveball still seems to be the sharper breaking ball and a better option than the slider, even though he throws it only around 74-75 mph).  His FB velocity was still between 85-91 mph but again his command was sharp enough and he paid it, after being pulled early.

Evans finished 2011 in AA Jacksonville after dominating High-A (as a 24-year old) and posted solid numbers.  However, his strikeout rate was not impressive (only 27 in 37.1 IP or 6.5/9 IP). 

After seeing him this past Monday, I am not convinced that Evans can pitch in the big leagues. The first time I saw him, I noted that Evans’ delivery was deceptive.  However, Evans’ pure stuff leaves much to be desired so his command and sequencing need to be very sharp for him succeed as he climbs the ladder.  Recently, his command has been very mediocre, and he has actually walked more batters (24) than he has struck out (21) in just 30.2 innings of work.  Pitchers like Evans cannot succeed consistently with spotty command.  I had originally believed that Evans could turn into a back of the rotation innings eater if everything broke right, but after seeing him a few more times I think that if Evans is to ever make a MLB roster it will be as a middle-reliever or swingman.

Jake Smolinski

Last year I also got the chance to see Jake Smolinski (JAX) play a handful of times and here is what I had to say about him:

 Jake Smolinski, a 22 year old OF for the Jacksonville Suns was drafted in the 2nd round out of high school by the Washington Nationals.  He was traded to the Florida Marlins organization with Emilio Bonifacio for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham.  Smolinski is a converted 2B/3B that flashed some decent athleticism in the games that I attended.  He hit towards the bottom of the order, which is surprising for such a high draft pick, but nonetheless he put together quality ABs and was 2-3 off of Chris Archer. This is Smolinski's first season in AA and he has played pretty well so far and has been able to draw more walks, even though he only is hitting .259.  Overall, Smolinski looked like a pretty solid player and profiles as a 4th OF or maybe a 2nd-division starter type if he remains as a corner OF.

Smolinski finished 2011 in AA Jacksonville hitting. 245/.342/.364 with 26 2B and 7 HR. The first thing that I noticed this season was that Smolinski appeared to have filled out a little bit more.  The media guide listed him at 6’0, 205 and he clearly looked the part, with an athletic frame.   Now 23 years old, Smolinski is hitting .325/.440/.482 with 9 2B (and 0 HR) through 22 games with Jacksonville.  Smolinski’s value would be much greater if he could handle center field, but I clocked him at a slightly-below average 4.4 and 4.5 to first base so he is going to be limited to a corner spot.  His lack of raw power has to be slightly disconcerting, but he has a level-swing plane and has proved that he has solid gap-to-gap power.  At this point, Smolinski appears to a traditional tweener—not enough power to handle a corner and not athletic/fast enough to play in center field.  However, with his ability to get on base and put the bat on the ball he may still end up as a 2^nd-division starter.

Kyle Jensen

Last season I also saw Kyle Jensen play a couple of games in right field for the Jacksonville Suns.  Here is what I had to say about him:

The Suns’ RF Kyle Jensen was pretty impressive in both games that I saw (again limited sample size) as he showed the ability to barrel balls the other way (off Jarrod Parker) and flashed nice range in right field.

Jensen, a left-handed hitter clocked a 4.8 to 1^st base and looked below-average out in right field on Sunday night.  Suffice it to say, I was a bit off base in my observations last season.  As a 23-year old Jensen crushed Hi-A pitching in Jupiter and his numbers fell off a bit when promoted to Jacksonville towards the end on 2011.  Thus far he is struggling a bit at the plate.  I did not get to see Jensen play on Monday, but he (like many other Suns hitters) was overmatched by Trevor Bauer.  He has some power in the bat, but he is limited defensively and turns 24 on May 20th so he does not profile as a true prospect.  He may have some value as a bat-only 4^th OF/1B/DH type.

Sutil and Gilbert

A couple of Mobile Bay Bears caught my eye initially, but I quickly found out that they were journeymen chasing the dream.  SS Wladimir Sutil made a solid play to his left and flashed a strong arm, but the Venezuelan is 27 years old and is playing in AA for a fifth consecutive season.  CF Archie Gilbert was picked off by Jose Alvarez in Sunday night’s game, which led me to believe that Gilbert was a young player learning the nuances of professional baseball.  However, Gilbert is actually a soon to be 29-year old, so even though he showed a short, compact swing and hit 12 HRs last year in the Eastern League, he is not a true prospect either. 

Matt Davidson

Finally, Mobile 3B Matt Davidson caught my eye as well.  I did not do any research going into the series so I had not heard of Davidson before Sunday, but his solid numbers and role as cleanup hitter piqued my interest.  He has a “bad” body with some baby fat and looked like he might have to move to 1^st base in the future if he did not get into better shape.  Regardless, I liked his approach at the plate, and statistics show that he has been able to work more walks. Furthermore, Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks recently wrote about Davidson and noted that his footwork (defensively) and offensive approach have improved since his inaugural season.  Davidson was a supplemental first-round pick in 2009 and a .310/.433/.534 slash line as a 21 year old in AA shows that Davidson can hit.  I hope to see Davidson play again this season for a further and more complete evaluation.

5/6/12 and 5/7/12: Trevor Bauer, Jose Alvarez, Tyler Skaggs

On Sunday 5/6/12 and Monday 5/7/12 I attended two games of a five game series between the Mobile Bay Bears and the Jacksonville Suns.  I’ve covered the Suns and Bay Bears at length in some of my posts from last year.  Also, more recently I’ve posted a few columns revisiting some of my past observations for prospects such as Trevor Bauer.

Trevor Bauer (MOB)

I was fortunate enough to see Bauer again in Sunday’s contest.  In my 3Update on 5/1/12 I noted that there was still room for improvement as the right-hander had been struggling to pitch deep into games with a propensity for walks and high pitch counts.  Regardless, I still loved the pure stuff that Bauer brought to the table and believed that he would be able to pitch for the Diamondbacks in the near future.

His start on 5/6/12 was solid but I believe that his final line (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 5 K) was more impressive than the outing itself.  Although he only gave up one hit, Bauer struggled more than I thought he would in the first and second innings.  He consistently missed up in the zone with his fastball and had a couple of breaking balls hang over the middle of the plate that more polished hitters would have taken advantage of.  Furthermore, the fastball velocity was down significantly as it ranged from 87-91 mph.  However, as the evening progressed Bauer got into a bit of a groove, and from the third inning until his exit in the seventh inning his fastball would sit in the 89-93 mph range.  On a couple different occasions Bauer was able to reach back and hit 95.  He did not utilize the slider much except for a few sequences in the middle innings, but the pitch ranged from 78-85 mph and featured late, sharp 10-4 break that has the ability to miss bats.  Bauer’s changeup was between 80-83 mph with fade and arm-side run.  Like the slider, Bauer’s changeup was not utilized too much, so it was hard to get an accurate read on the potential of the pitch, but I think that he has developed a better feel for the pitch since I saw him in August of 2011.  Bauer was more liberal with the use of his curveball, which can be an absolutely devastating pitch.  The curveball sat between 73-77 mph, and while he threw a few hangers, the ones that were thrown harder (75-77 mph) were sharp and flashed as a plus-plus pitch at the MLB level. 

However, Bauer still struggled with his command, issuing 5 walks and going to many 2-3 ball counts throughout the outing.   While I don’t think that he had his best fastball (stuff and command-wise), if Bauer was able to command his secondary pitches (especially the CRV) more effectively I don’t think he would have been touched.  Some of this has to do with the limitations of the Suns’ lineup, but Bauer’s curveball was almost too good at times—he was not getting hitters to chase the pitch and was forced to revert to his fastball (which they were sitting on). 

There was definitely room for improvement, but I still liked what I saw from Bauer.  I got the feeling that Bauer was actually toying with JAX and was tinkering with things to try and see what could work or be effective.  There is a risk-reward with such an approach, as some pitchers can get too entrapped in this framework and forget about what got them there in the first place.  Hopefully, Bauer is able to further refine his command and efficiency because I think he still has the ceiling of an ace.

Jose Alvarez (JAX)

Bauer’s counterpart for the Jacksonville Suns was LHP Jose Alvarez.  The first thing that I noticed about Alvarez was his height, or lack thereof.  Alvarez is listed as 5’10, but I would not be surprised if he is 5’9 or perhaps 5’8.  Alvarez was extremely aggressive and pounded the strike zone with predominately fastballs with some arm-side run that sat between 87 and 91 mph.  Alvarez did not throw many off-speed pitches, but his go-to secondary pitch was a 81-85 slider that he used as a cutter against RH batters.  In my opinion, Alvarez did not utilize this pitch enough, and while it is not a plus pitch by any stretch of the imagination I think that it has the potential to be an average (50) pitch and is currently a 40-45 offering.  Alvarez threw his changeup even less frequently than the slider, so it was hard to get an accurate reading, but the pitch sat between 78-80 mph and did not appear to be a quality third pitch.  Alvarez, celebrating his 23^rd birthday on 5/6/12, caught the loss ().  I believe that Alvarez’s downfall was his inability and/or unwillingness to throw his secondary pitches more frequently.  I like Alvarez’s mentality and inclination to challenge hitters, but he does not feature an above-average fastball and his short stature does not allow him to throw from a downhill plane.  With an average fastball and average slider/cutter hybrid I can see Alvarez as a MLB middle reliever down the road.

Tyler Skaggs (MOB)

On Monday, 5/7/12, I was able to catch a few innings of the second game of the Mobile-Jacksonville series.  I went purely to watch Tyler Skaggs of Mobile pitch, as I have read many glowing reports about the young left-hander.  Skaggs pitched very well (7 IP, 5 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 7 K) and, like teammate Trevor Bauer, was able to stymie a weak and overmatched Jacksonville lineup.  Skaggs threw his fastball between 90 and 93 mph, and while he opened up early and missed high and away with the pitch occasionally, his command of the pitch was solid.  Skaggs slowed his arm speed a bit when he delivered his changeup, but the pitch, which sat around 80-82 mph, featured some fade and induced a couple of weak swings.  Currently, I would guess that the pitch is a fringe-average (45-50) MLB offering with the chance to be average to solid-average (50-55) with further refinement.  Finally, Skaggs’ curveball is a monster of a pitch.  Kevin Goldstein has noted that it is regarded as the best in the system, but I thought that such an assertion had to be hyperbole given Bauer’s hook.  However, on Monday I became a believer as the Skaggs’ curveball is a sharp 12-6’er and current 70-pitch that completely falls off of the table when thrown with a little more velocity (77 mph).  Skaggs’ slower (74-75 mph) curveballs were still very sharp and effective, but he did leave a few up in the zone as his arm had a tendency to drag behind his body before release. 

I did not watch Skaggs’ entire seven inning performance, but I left pretty impressed with what I had seen (stuffwise), although a recent article by Fangraphs’ and Scouting the Sally’s Mike Newman really resonated.  Newman discussed his reservations with Skaggs’ propensity to throw his curveball as not many current MLB pitchers utilize their curveball more than 30% of the time.  Skaggs did throw his curveball quite a lot on Monday (and one cannot blame him given the effectiveness of the pitch).  However, Skaggs needs to make sure that he does not fall in love with the pitch.  Minor-leaguers may not be able to handle his curve, but major-league bats may be able to exploit it if he throws it too often.  Skaggs is currently 20 years old and more than holding his own in AA, so one cannot be too critical of his performance thus far, but it will definitely be interesting to see how Skaggs progresses in the years to come.  

3Update 5/1/2012

In my last entry I re-examined some of my initial observations from 2011 on a number of players in the Tampa Bay Rays system. 

This time I will re-examine some of my scouting notes from various other prospects that I was able to see in game action.

1)      Jarrod Parker (RHP)

I was fortunate enough to watch Parker pitch against the Jacksonville Suns last August.  Parker was considered a top prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks system and I very excited about the opportunity to see Parker in action.  Here is what I wrote last year:

 Parker’s fastball sat at 90-94 throughout his six innings of work and hit 95 on a couple different occasions.  His best secondary pitch was his slider which sat around 83-84 mph and featured a sharp, two-plane break.  Parker was able to throw the slider very effectively to lefties as he was able to both backdoor it and bury underneath their hands and at their feet.

 Parker looked to have a very smooth and athletic throwing motion as he was able to consistently repeat his high-3/4 delivery from both the full windup and the stretch.  Parker scattered 3 hits, worked around 3 BB’s effectively, and was able to finish six innings without allowing a run.  Overall, Parker’s outing was not overly impressive but successful and solid in its own right.

 Parker finished 2011 with an 11-8 record, 3.79 ERA, and 112 K, and 112 H in 130.2 IP for AA Mobile. He also made his major league debut and pitched well (5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K).  In the offseason, Parker was part of a package of prospects that were shipped to Oakland for established starter Trevor Cahill.  This season, Parker has made one spot start in Oakland, going 6.1 innings and allowing seven hits, one walk, one earned run, and striking out five.  He has also been stellar in four starts for AAA for Sacramento (1-0, 20.2 IP, 22 H, 21 K, 2.18 ERA).  Some people have voiced their concerns about Parker’s ability to handle a heavy workload (~180 or 200 IP) because he missed all of 2010 recovering from Tommy John surgery and his velocity has not returned to the 96-98 MPH range.  However, given the success that Parker has had over the last season and change, and from what I was able to see in my limited time with him, I think that Parker will become a successful major league pitcher.  While he will undoubtedly encounter some struggles once he lands at the MLB level for an entire season, I think that Parker has the arsenal and ability to establish himself as a solid number two starter.

2)      Trevor Bauer (RHP)

Here is what I wrote about Bauer last year:

Although Jarrod Parker is widely considered a top prospect in all of baseball, I was more excited to watch Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 MLB First-Year Player Draft, pitch as it was his second career start in AA.  There has been much written about Bauer’s dominating career at UCLA, his slight frame and unique delivery, and the possibility of him pitching in the big leagues sometime this year.  Scouts and many people within the blogosphere have been wondering whether or not Bauer should even be pitching at this point because of his heavy workload (both innings and pitch count wise) this past spring/summer at UCLA.  Bauer’s outing was not as consistent as Parker’s was, yet his pure stuff seemed more impressive. Bauer’s windup and delivery often draw comparisons to Tim Lincecum’s and it does seem similar in some regards, but some of this comparison is also undoubtedly due to the fact that both are smaller in stature yet have excellent fastball velocity and sharp breaking pitches.  Bauer’s delivery is a bit complicated but he manages it well and is able to repeat his delivery at a pretty consistent rate. However, there were times within this specific outing that it looked like he was laboring and fighting against himself (but this could be due to a number of other factors—fatigue, loss of concentration, etc.)  Bauer’s fastball ranged from 91-95 mph and featured some arm-side run to it. He flashed a sharp slider and 12-6 curveball that was absolutely devastating at times and completely fell off the table.  His changeup featured some arm-side run and sink to it but his command of the pitch was spotty.  As I mentioned earlier, Bauer walked three in his five innings and went to two and three ball counts many times so it was clear that Bauer was not working with his best stuff or command.  However, he still managed to strike out eight batters and shatter a few bats in only five innings of work.  The homerun that he allowed was to Kyle Skipworth, a struggling prospect of which I have touched upon before, on a changeup that appeared to be a case of poor location as it was belt high and inside to the left-hander.  All in all, Bauer’s performance was very impressive and it is easy to see why there have been talks about him pitching in the majors later this year (although whether he should or shouldn’t is still up for debate).
 
Bauer only started seven games in the minor leagues last year (3 in High-A Visalia and 4 in AA Mobile) and finished with a combined line of 1-2, 5.96 ERA, 25.2 IP, 27 H, 12 BB, 43 K.  Many minor league statistics can be misleading, so the ERA and W-L should not be taken as indicators of Bauer’s true talent.  Instead, his ability to miss bats (43 K in 25.2 IP) shows that Bauer’s pure stuff is excellent.  Coming into the 2012 season there was a significant amount of buzz regarding Bauer’s assignment out of spring training—some believed he would be assigned to the big club.  However, Bauer was assigned to AA Mobile and has performed well thus far.  Through 5 starts, Bauer is 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 37 K in 28.2 IP.  While his W-L and ERA have improved significantly, there is still much room for improvement.  Bauer has averaged less than 6 IP/start and while some of this may be by design to limit his workload before he is eventually called up, there is something to be said for a starter that cannot eat innings and pitch efficiently.  His command has been problematic as well as he has surrendered 17 BB in his 28.2 IP.  While this is not an astounding number of free passes, major-league quality hitters will be able to lay off certain off-speed offerings that AA hitters cannot.   Although I only saw Bauer pitch once, it was easy to see that his pure stuff was outstanding and major-league quality.  He struggled to locate all of his pitches consistently in that start against the Jacksonville Suns and has still had some issues thus far in 2012.  However, I have no doubts that Bauer will eventually work out the kinks and pitch for the Diamondbacks in the near future.  If he is able to refine his command and adjust to major-league quality hitters, Bauer will be an ace.

 3/4) AJ Pollock (CF) and Ryan Wheeler (3B)

 Because I was so focused on Parker and Bauer, I had limited notes on AJ Pollock and Ryan Wheeler, but here is what I had to say:

 Mobile’s lineup had two position players that particularly intrigued me, CF AJ Pollock and 3B Ryan Wheeler.  Both Pollock and Wheeler were high draft picks out of their respective colleges, Notre Dame and Loyola Marymount (CA).  Pollock flashed good speed throughout both of the games that I was able to attend, beating out a groundball to the 2nd baseman.  He also flashed good range in CF and appeared to make good reads off the bat after the ball was put into play.  Ryan Wheeler, who I alluded to earlier when writing about Ramon Benjamin has had a solid year thus far and flashed his hit tool in both games that I attended.  Wheeler has a nice level swing plane and appeared to be very comfortable in the batter’s box as he was able to consistently repeat his swing mechanics and track balls out of the pitchers hand.  The one exception to this was his at-bat against Benjamin (also the only lefty that I remember seeing him face) where he looked all out of sorts.  It was hard to get a read on his work in the field because of limited opportunities, but he did not look to be very fluid when he allowed a foul pop-up to drop that probably should have been caught.  It would be foolish to draw any conclusions from one single play (and I’m sure numerous scouts could provide much more insight on Wheeler’s proficiency in the field), but it will be interesting to see how Wheeler develops in the field and if he can and will stick at 3B.

Pollock finished 2011 in Mobile and was very successful, hitting .307 with 41 2B, 5 3B, and 8 HR to go along with 36 SB. Clearly, Pollock, as the 17^th overall pick in the 2009 draft out of Notre Dame, was able to handle AA ball. His speed and defense are his biggest assets and provide the most value for his club.  He started 2012 at AAA Reno and was hitting .340 with 6 2B through 53 AB before being called up to Arizona when Chris Young was injured.  He has struggled since being called up, going 3-22, but such struggles are to be expected from a young player being forced into big-league action so early in the season.  Pollock will be sent back down to AAA once Young is healthy again, but Pollock is likely to see some more action later this year and will probably be a September call-up.  While he doesn’t have much power and does not walk much (only 44 BB in 550 AB in 2011) Pollock is a valuable asset but he does not possess an elite ceiling and probably projects to be an average MLB CF at best.

 Wheeler also finished 2011 in Mobile, hitting .294 (.358 OBP) with 30 2B and 16 HR in 480 AB.  Kevin Goldstein did not have Wheeler rated in his Top 20 for the Diamondbacks, but minorleagueball.com’s John Sickels had Wheeler listed as #14.  Last year, as one can see in my notes, I expressed my reservations about Wheeler’s ability field but was unwilling to commit to throwing a grade or making a full evaluation on it given the lack of opportunities Wheeler had.  In his rankings Sickels notes that Wheeler’s glove is “mediocre.”  Wheeler has gotten off to a hot start in 2012 in AAA Reno as he is hitting .316 with 5 2B and 4 HR in 95 AB.  It appears as if Wheeler, like Pollock, has established himself as a polished yet unspectacular commodity.  While Pollock lacks the power and patience, Wheeler is limited defensively and may not be a reliable everyday third baseman.  If that is the case, Wheeler will probably be forced into becoming a part-time/bench option which is still an important if not gaudy role for a major league club to fill.

3Update

With graduate school and numerous different work obligations it has been difficult for me to keep up with a lot of other things, including this blog.  I’ve been trying pretty hard to include new notes and observations on many college players that I’ve been fortunate enough to see the last couple of months, but it has not worked out as well as I had hoped. 

Within the next few weeks I will have significantly more free time as spring semester winds down and there is a dead period before summer school starts back up.  I am going to include more first-hand observations from various FSU games, including the FSU-Miami series (You can find my write up of Game 1 here, for CollegeBaseballInsider, a website which I currently intern for). 

However, in this entry I am going to focus on looking back on a handful of minor-league players that I observed last year and checking in to see how they are performing today.  Furthermore, this exercise should help me to recognize what characteristics I need to improve on in order to further cultivate my scouting skills.  

One of the players that caught my eye last year was Tim Beckham, who I saw while playing for AA Montgomery.  Here is what I wrote upon seeing Beckham playing against the Jacksonville Suns last season:

  Kevin Goldstein rated Beckham as the Rays' 18th best prospect coming into the season and John Sickels gave Beckham a C+ grade before opening day.  By both accounts Beckham's 2011 was going to largely be a make-or-break type of year. So far this season his numbers have been pretty solid and after watching him for three games I can confidently say that he was the best position player on the field for either team.  Beckham has quick wrists at the plate and shows some pop in his bat.  He looked to have a solid approach and was quick to exploit pitchers who left balls over the plate or attacked him early in the count with fastballs.  He flashed good opposite field power as he took the first pitch that he saw from Bryan Evans (a fastball) to the right center field gap for a double. He also hit a number of other balls hard throughout the series that resulted in outs. Some of Beckham's detractors point to his fielding and after seeing him firsthand they do have a point.  Beckham showed solid range on a couple of plays to his left, but he also committed one throwing error and was bailed out by his first baseman on another.  Both plays were relatively routine groundballs, but Beckham sat back and gave himself an in between hop.  His rhythm was thrown off which altered his throws.  It appears as if he has the athleticism to play shortstop, but he needs to make the plays easier for himself and keep his concentration in the field if he is to stay at the position (there is some thought that he will eventually have to move to 3rd base).

And an update from a couple of weeks later, as Beckham had been promoted to AAA:

Montgomery SS Tim Beckham who was called up to AAA Durham over a week ago has continued to hit well at the next level as he has hit .291 with 3 HR in 55 AB.

Beckham finished the 2011 season at AAA Durham, playing 24 games for the Bulls, and producing a .255/.282/.462 slash.  He hit .275/.339/.395 in 107 games at Montgomery.  This season Beckham started the year off at AAA Durham, but has gotten off to a slow start.  Through 13 games Beckham is hitting .204/.290/.278 without any home runs.  Unfortunately, milb.com and fangraphs.com do not list fielding statistics (although they are misleading anyway) so I cannot truly weigh in on his defense this year.  Regardless, Beckham has clearly gotten to a rough start offensively, but it is extremely early into the 2012 campaign, and I believe that Beckham will play in the big leagues, probably as soon as this season.  He will not end up being a superstar or All-Star like everybody hopes that former No. 1 picks are, but I think that he can be a 50 hitter (.250-.270) with gap power and run into 10-15 home runs if given the opportunity to play an entire season.  I also believe that Beckham can stick at shortstop, although his defense at the position may only ever be average at best.

Another Montgomery Biscuit that I wrote about, Kyeong Kang has also been struggling.  He only has 28 at bats through 11 games thus far and has been splitting time with others in the outfield.  I’m not sure if Kang also has been dealing with injuries but his performance in 2012 has not been stellar.  Here is what I wrote about him last year:

Kyeong Kang (LF/RF) for Montgomery, age 23, was a 15th round draft pick out of a Georgia high school. The native South Korean was not listed in the Top 20 pre-season lists of TB prospects by Goldstein or Sickels, but he did impress me throughout the series. Kang played for the World Team in the 2009 Futures Game, but had a poor 2010 season in the High-A Florida State League for Charlotte.  2011 has been a bounce back year for Kang as he currently sports an OBP of .395.  Again, minor-league statistics can sometimes be misleading and do not always tell the whole story, but I came away thinking that Kang may have a bright future.  He showed a good approach at the plate, was able to fight off tough pitches with two strikes, and hit a number of balls solidly.  Kang's wrists were not as quick as Beckham's and his swing did appear to be a bit long.  Kang also has questionable athleticism and his power numbers are not ideal for a corner outfielder.  However, Kang did show off a very strong and accurate arm as he had two outfield assists in the three games that I was able to attend.  I enjoyed watching Kang play and think that he could profile as a second division starter or a 4th OF type at the MLB level.

Kang cooled down a bit since I saw him in August, and finished with a slash line of .263/.384/.437 and 11 HR and 14 2B in 316 AB.  I did note that Kang’s swing was a bit long and not as quick as Beckham’s.  Similarly, I identified that his athleticism and power (lack thereof) would limit his future potential as a corner outfielder.  Currently Kang has a slash line of .107/.188/.321 with 2 HR in his 28 AB.  Clearly, Kang is struggling mightily right now, but again, it is early in the season and he has been splitting time.  However, after taking a look at the roster, I think that Kang should be in line for more playing time going forward (which leads me to believe he has been battling injury) as the other outfielders currently listed are Brad Coon (29 years old), Emeel Salem (27 years old), and Isaias Velasquez (23 years old).  Velasquez is the only other outfielder with a true potential, so I expect Kang to get plenty of AB going forward.  With that being said, I still do not think that his ceiling, of a 4^th OF, has not changed and his assignment to repeat AA as 24 year-old probably reflects this as well.  As we saw with Beckham (and others such as Alex Torres, Matt Moore, etc.,) the Rays are not shy about having their prospects compete at AAA before bringing them up so it appears as if they think that Kang is still at least one year away from big league consideration. He may eventually be able to sneak his way into a starting job given an injury or with a second-division type of club, but he does not have the power yet to warrant a full-time gig. 

I also saw Shawn O’Malley play for the Montgomery Biscuits in their series vs. the Jacksonville Suns. Here is what I had to say about O’Malley last August:

 Shawn O'Malley is a 23 year old second baseman for Montgomery that was drafted in the 5th round out of his high school in Washington state.  O'Malley is agood athlete as he was first-team all-state as a wide receiver, defensive back, and kick returner.  Like Kang, O'Malley was not listed on Goldstein or Sickels top prospect lists, and in all honesty he does not warrant a spot on a top prospect list.  O'Malley has very little power (2 career minor league homeruns in 1678 plate appearances (via FanGraphs) which limits his value drastically.  However, in my mind O'Malley is still a fine player.  He is a switch hitter that shows quick hands from both sides of the plate and has solid speed.  He also had a tendency to work the count well and provide some quality ABs.  O'Malley is athletic and he would provide an organization more value if he could play SS, but it appeared that he did not have the necessary skill set to do so.  He looked good at second base and made a very nice play to his right which highlighted his range, but did not appear to translate well to a move across the diamond.  Overall, O'Malley is a fine, pesky player that is a joy to watch but he will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to reach the majors.

O’Malley finished 2011 in Montgomery and hit .276/.369/.344 with 8 2B, 1 HR, and 24 SB.  O’Malley broke spring training with AAA Durham.  Through 11 games O’Malley has 35 AB and is hitting .171/.262/.257 with 1 HR.  Clearly O’Malley, like the other players I’ve covered so far, has struggled.  One could be encouraged that O’Malley broke camp in AAA, a step up from last year’s assignment, but as I noted last year “he will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to reach the majors.” O’Malley does not really profile as an everyday anything given his lack of power, but he has struggled in the past and overcome adversity.  In 2010 he only hit .181 in 144 AB at Montgomery, but he was able to improve on that by almost .100 points one year later.  If O’Malley is able to rebound from a poor start as he has done in the past he may have an outside shot to serve as a utility/reserve player for an MLB club.

While I have been discussing the progress or lack thereof of past Montgomery position players, some Biscuit pitchers that I examined are also encountering some early adversity.

First, Alex Colome.  Here is what I wrote about Colome last August:

Colome was rated as the #6 prospect in the Rays system by Kevin Goldstein, who said that Colome offers a plus-plus fastball that sits at 93-95 and can touch 97.  Goldstein further wrote that Colome has the potential to be a star-level rotation piece with plenty of strikeouts.  Colome did not disappoint as he brought tremendous pure stuff to the table.
       
      Mechanically, Colome throws with a very loose arm action and he generates a ton of power behind his slight, skinny frame through his burst off the rubber (For comparison his windup almost had a Pedro Martinez-like look to it).  He had decent enough command of his fastball throughout the game, although in the middle innings (3rd and 4th) Colome seemed to lose some of his command and had to battle through some long at-bats.  Like Kevin Goldstein wrote, Colome's fastball did indeed sit at 93-95 and hit 96 on a number of occasions.  His curveball was sharp after using mainly his fastball in the first inning he put away two hitters with his power-curve (76-78 mph) in the second inning.  His changeup had some good armside run to it and usually clocked in around 85-87 mph, but he did not throw it all that much (although throw a great one to Kyle Skipworth in the 6th inning).  His slider/cutter usually registered at 87-90 mph, although he did throw a few slower (83-85 mph). The pitch was particularly effective to lefties down and in.  Overall, Colome had a pretty solid evening as he pitched into the 7th inning, going 6.1 allowing 4 hits, 4 BB, 2 ER, and striking out 6.  Like I said, Colome looked a bit lost in the 3rd and 4th innings and showed visible signs of frustration on the mound, but he was able to put it together and put together a solid 4th and 5th inning.  Colome will undoubtedly need more time on the farm to work on the command of all of his pitches but his pure stuff does project well and if he continues to develop he could be a quality starter in the big leagues in a few years.

The above notes were from Colome’s second AA start of the season, as he started 2011 in the Florida State League.  He finished the season with Montgomery and finished 3-4 with a 4.15 ERA but only 31 K in 52 IP.  His strikeout rate dropped significantly from A to AA, but the early results from 2012 show that Colome can still miss bats (and given his fastball velocity and sharp power curve he should be).  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein had Colome rated as the Rays #5 prospect coming into the year, and although I am very familiar with the entire system I think that Colome’s potential definitely warrants such a rating.  Thus far Colome has made two starts, one good and one not so good.  He is 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA and has stuck out 10 through eight innings of work.  Obviously, eight innings through two starts is not a particularly encouraging statistic, but even the best of the best have a bad outing.  Colome is 24, which is a bit older for a true top-level prospect, but as he grows more accustomed to AA talent he should be able to harness his ability and be successful.  Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein said of Colome in his Rays preview:

“The Bad: Colome's delivery is far from easy, and he has problems throwing strikes. His secondary pitches come and go, and his breaking ball can get slurvy. A large number of scouts think he projects far better in a late-innings bullpen role.”

I think that Colome could be very effective as a reliever and be ready as soon as this year if the Rays felt that this route was necessary.  However, I still think that with another full season of refinement Colome projects to be a solid mid-rotation option for a major league team.

I also got the chance to watch SP Chris Archer pitch against the Suns.  Here are my notes from last year:

Game 2 of the series featured a prominent starting pitching prospect, as Chris Archer of Montgomery took the mound. Archer, 22, was a part of the package sent to the Rays by the Chicago Cubs this past offseason in the Matt Garza trade.  Archer was rated as the #4 prospect by Kevin Goldstein and #5 prospect by Minor League Ball's John Sickels in the pre-season.  Thus far Archer has had a decent 2011 campaign in AA as he has 100 K in 113.1 IP, but has also allowed 65 BB and has 14 WP (via FanGraphs).  BP's Goldstein noted before the season that Archer's development would depend on his command as he has always had trouble throwing strikes consistency.  Again, in Game 2 I sat down the right field line and the radar gun was not functioning so it was impossible to get an accurate reading of Archer's velocity, but Goldstein wrote that Archer sits around 92-94 and that his power slider can be un-hittable when its on. Archer was not at the top of his game when I saw him, but he was pretty impressive nontheless. His fastball overpowered a number of Suns hitters and his slider definitely had a sharp bite on it.  However, his outing was typical of the reports as he did struggle some with command allowing 4 BB in 6 IP (although the umpire's strike zone was tight throughout the game).

Archer was promoted to AAA Durham late in the season and made two starts there.  He finished 2011 with a combined line of 9-7, 4.09 ERA, and 130 K in 147 IP.  However, Archer also walked 86 batters, and I witnessed Archer’s command issues firsthand.  This season, Kevin Goldstein rated Archer as the Rays’ #8 prospect and he noted that Archer’s regressed from his 2010 season.  He pitched very well in his two starts at AAA Durham in 2011, but thus far Archer has run into some early problems.  Through 3 starts Archer is 1-2 with a 9.95 ERA and 13 BB in 12.2 IP.  The control issue is something that will definitely be monitored closely by the Rays’ front office.  Again, in the start that I witnessed last year Archer was overpowering and had a devastating slider.  However, unless he is able to regain his composure and find the strike zone more consistently, Archer will most likely end up as a late-inning bullpen arm.  While this is not the end of the world, I’m sure that the Rays would prefer if Archer could develop as a starter.  With an overabundance of starting pitching at the MLB level, and Archer still only 23 years old, Tampa Bay may be content to wait and see how Archer develops this season before bringing him up to the show.

A Montgomery relief pitcher that I liked was Marquis Fleming.  Here is what I wrote about Fleming:

Archer was relieved by Marquis Fleming, a 24 year old righty drafted in the 24th round out of Cal State Stanislaus.  Fleming has put up solid stats thus far, with 90 K in 63.2 innings (via FanGraphs).  However, minor-league statistics are not always great indicators of true talent level because things such as age and experience vary by level.  I got the opportunity to watch Fleming warm-up as I was situated near the visitor's bullpen.  Fleming showed solid run and sink on his two-seam fastball and he was able to utilize this pitch to get out of trouble and induce a double play in the eighth inning.  He didn't have the strongest line of the night, and he may only be a middle-reliever type but I liked what I saw from Fleming and could envision him coming out of the bullpen as a middle-man in the majors at some point in his career.

  He finished 2011 with a 5-4 record, 3.48 ERA, and 105 K in 82.2 IP.  Unfortunately I did not have a radar gun and was sitting down the first base line during this game, but I hope to see Fleming pitch again this season.  Fleming had a solid spring and I believe that there was some discussion about Fleming breaking camp with the Rays, but he started off 2012 in AAA Durham.  Thus far Fleming has struggled to make the adjustment to AAA and has allowed 12 ER, 14 H, and 9 BB in only 11 innings.  Again, it is early in the season and Fleming may still be getting used to pitching in AAA.  Still, as I said in my notebook last season, Fleming’s ceiling is probably that of a middle-reliever as I do not think that he is overpowering enough to be a closer, but here is a reason why you should root for him: http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080617/SPORTS/806170336

Finally, (for now) Matt Bush.  Here is what I wrote about the former No. 1 pick last season:

Like Jacksonville, Montgomery also used an overpowering RHP out of the bullpen after pulling their starter.  Matt Bush, 25, former 1st overall pick by the San Diego Padres in 2004 pitched 2 innings of relief work for the Biscuits. Drafted as a SS, Bush has resurrected his baseball career after being out of the game for a number of years.  Bush pitched 13.2 innings last year in the GCL and Florida State League, but this year has been his first true test as a pitcher.  Because of his age and relative inexperience as a pitcher, Bush was not featured on many prospect lists coming into the season.  However, his outing in Game 1 was pretty impressive. Bush pitched 2 innings, surrendered 2 walks, yet struck out 4 and did not allow any hits or runs.  He flashed an overpowering fastball that appeared to be in the mid-90s and had decent command of the pitch.  His breaking ball was sharp and froze a couple of hitters for called third strikes, but his command of the pitch was spotty.  Bush does not have the typical pitchers body, only standing at 5-9" but he has thick legs and a strong torso, along with a very strong arm, which allows him to create such great torque and pitch in the mid-90s.  With some more seasoning and experience Bush may eventually find himself in a MLB bullpen in the future.

Bush finished 2011 in Montgomery, going 5-3 with a 4.83 ERA and an impressive 77 K in 50.1 IP.  While Bush did not enter 2011 on many people’s radar he pitched well enough to be in the conversation for a big-league roster spot.  Unfortunately, Bush’s off-field decisions have likely ended his attempt to play in the big leagues.  Bush had previously struggled with alcohol and drugs while in the Padres organization, and this year, during Spring Training Bush borrowed a teammate’s vehicle on an off-day and was involved in a nasty hit-and-run DUI incident that still has him sitting in a jail cell (For more read this tremendous article by Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports).  I (along with many others) was rooting for Matt Bush, but regrettably his demons caught up with him and we will not be able to witness a career revival reminiscent of Josh Hamilton.  Hopefully, the accident victim is able to fully recover and Bush is able to find a happy and safe balance in life.