Friday, August 5, 2011

"Scouting" in the Southern League (Pt. 3--Position Players & Other Notes)

      It is harder to evaluate position players (hitters) than it is pitchers because they have less opportunities throughout a single game to showcase their abilities at the plate and at the field.  A position player may get only three or four plate appearances whereas a starting pitcher directly affects every single pitch for as long as he is in the game.  Furthermore, the position player (read: fielder) may not even get a single ball hit to him all game, so grading one's defensive abilities takes time and patience.  Again, even though I am no professional scout I will attempt to analyze the play of a few position players from both the Montgomery Biscuits and the Jacksonville Suns.
      
     Tim Beckham, age 21, is a shortstop prospect for the Montgomery Biscuits who was drafted 1st overall in the 2008 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays.  Beckham had a rough first three seasons in the minors and some people were already proclaiming the youngster a bust.  Kevin Goldstein rated Beckham as the Rays' 18th best prospect coming into the season and John Sickels gave Beckham a C+ grade before opening day.  By both accounts Beckham's 2011 was going to largely be a make-or-break type of year. So far this season his numbers have been pretty solid and after watching him for three games I can confidently say that he was the best position player on the field for either team.  Beckham has quick wrists at the plate and shows some pop in his bat.  He looked to have a solid approach and was quick to exploit pitchers who left balls over the plate or attacked him early in the count with fastballs.  He flashed good opposite field power as he took the first pitch that he saw from Bryan Evans (a fastball) to the right center field gap for a double. He also hit a number of other balls hard  throughout the series that resulted in outs. Some of Beckham's detractors point to his fielding and after seeing him firsthand they do have a point.  Beckham showed solid range on a couple of plays to his left, but he also committed one throwing error and was bailed out by his first baseman on another.  Both plays were relatively routine groundballs, but Beckham sat back and gave himself an in between hop.  His rhythm was thrown off which altered his throws.  It appears as if he has the athleticism to play shortstop, but he needs to make the plays easier for himself and keep his concentration in the field if he is to stay at the position (there is some thought that he will eventually have to move to 3rd base).


      Kyeong Kang (LF/RF) for Montgomery, age 23, was a 15th round draft pick out of a Georgia high school. The native South Korean was not listed in the Top 20 pre-season lists of TB prospects by Goldstein or Sickels, but he did impress me throughout the series. Kang played for the World Team in the 2009 Futures Game, but had a poor 2010 season in the  High-A Florida State League for Charlotte.  2011 has been a bounce back year for Kang as he currently sports an OBP of .395.  Again, minor-league statistics can sometimes be misleading and do not always tell the whole story, but I came away thinking that Kang may have a bright future.  He showed a good approach at the plate, was able to fight off tough pitches with two strikes, and hit a number of balls solidly.  Kang's wrists were not as quick as Beckham's and his swing did appear to be a bit long.  Kang also has questionable athleticism and his power numbers are not ideal for a corner outfielder.  However, Kang did show off a very strong and accurate arm as he had two outfield assists in the three games that I was able to attend.  I enjoyed watching Kang play and think that he could profile as a second division starter or a 4th OF type at the MLB level.


      Shawn O'Malley is a 23 year old second baseman for Montgomery that was drafted in the 5th round out of his high school in Washington state.  O'Malley is a good athlete as he was first-team all-state as a wide receiver, defensive back, and kick returner.  Like Kang, O'Malley was not listed on Goldstein or Sickels top prospect lists, and in all honesty he does not warrant a spot on a top prospect list.  O'Malley has very little power (2 career minor league homeruns in 1678 plate appearances (via FanGraphs) which limits his value drastically.  However, in my mind O'Malley is still a fine player.  He is a switch hitter that shows quick hands from both sides of the plate and has solid speed.  He also had a tendency to work the count well and provide some quality ABs.  O'Malley is athletic and he would provide an organization more value if he could play SS, but it appeared that he did not have the necessary skill set to do so.  He looked good at second base and made a very nice play to his right which highlighted his range, but did not appear to translate well to move across the diamond.  Overall, O'Malley is a fine, pesky player that is a joy to watch but he will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to reach the majors.


     Brett Nommensen is a 24 year old OF for Montgomery that was drafted in the eight round of the 2009 draft out of Eastern Illinois University.  Nommensen was just recently called up to AA and he started two games in the five game series.  Nommensen has not hit particularly well in his brief minor league career, but he has shown an ability to draw walks and get on base (.391 OBP between High A and AA this year).  Nommensen stole 35 bases last year (and 20 so far this year), but did not seem to be especially fast as he was thrown out on a slow roller to 3rd in Game 1.  Like Kang and O'Malley, Nommensen saw a number of pitches, had quality at bats, and rarely seemed to be fooled by off-speed offerings.  Nommensen was 2-6 in the series and it will be interesting to see how much playing time he receives for the rest of his AA stint.


      Like Tim Beckham, catcher Kyle Skipworth was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft (sixth overall to Beckham's first).  However, unlike Beckham Skipworth has not been able to put it together at the plate.  Skipworth, just 21 is very close to being rightfully labeled as a bust. Kevin Goldstein rated Skipworth as the Marlins' 9th overall prospect coming into the season. In his three plus minor-league seasons Skipworth has failed to hit over .250 and he does not draw enough walks to provide a meaningful on-base percentage. From what I saw it seemed as though Skipworth had a very uneven swing path which was consistently loopy.  Furthermore, he did not respond well at all to any quality off-speed pitch.  Finally, Skipworth had a poor weight transfer and tended to jump at pitches rather than explode through the ball with quick wrists. Skipworth has some power in his bat, as he hit 17 HR last year, but if he does not turn things around soon his future may be in jeopardy. I was not accurately able to assess Skipworth's defensive attributes behind the plate, so even if Skipworth does not hit he may be able to sneak his way into the major-leagues as a defense-only catcher.


     Jake Smolinski, a 22 year old OF for the Jacksonville Suns was drafted in the 2nd round out of high school by the Washington Nationals.  He was traded to the Florida Marlins organization with Emilio Bonifacio for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham.  Smolinski is a converted 2B/3B that flashed some decent athleticism in the games that I attended.  He hit towards the bottom of the order, which is surprising for such a high draft pick, but nonetheless he put together many quality ABs and was 2-3 off of the previously mentioned prospect Chris Archer (see Pt. 2 below).  This is Smolinski's first season in AA and he has played pretty well so far and has been able to draw more walks, even though he only is hitting .259.  Overall, Smolinski looked like a pretty solid player and profiles as a 4th OF or maybe a 2nd-division starter type if he remains as a corner OF.


   Other players of note that I watched were Montgomery CF John Shelby (very athletic, quick wrists, and solid raw power), Jacksonville 2B Jim Negrych (6th round draft pick in 2006, limited physical tools, but has been hitting well (from the left side) this year), Montgomery LHP Neil Schenk (25 year old with good velocity from left side, sharp slider, questionable command), and Jacksonville RHP Zach Simons (26 year old w/ pretty solid AA and AAA stats, throws from deceptive 3/4 arm angle and features a fastball with good arm-side run).


     Many of the players that I mentioned above may never play in the big leagues, but some may go on to have successful, long lasting careers.  Scouting in general, but especially position players is more tedious than evaluating pitching prospects and I may be way off in my personal projections, but the players that do end up in the majors do so because they are able to adjust to obstacles that they are faced with.  It remains to be seen whom, if any of the players that I was able see this past week, are able to adjust and fully develop into the kind of player that can be successful at the highest level of professional baseball.

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