5/6/12 and 5/7/12: Bryan Evans, Jake Smolinski, Kyle Jensen, and others Chase the Dream

I finished yesterday’s post discussing Diamondbacks LHP prospect Tyler Skaggs. His counterpart on Monday afternoon’s start was RHP Bryan Evans.  

Bryan Evans

This was the third time that I have been able to see Evans pitch, as I had seen him pitch twice last year (once against Tampa Bay Ray prospect Jesus Colome and once against Trevor Bauer).  Here is what I had to say about Evans’ first start last season:

Colome's counterpart on Wednesday night was Bryan Evans, a 14th round draft pick out of UC-Davis in  2008.  Evans, 24, has spent the better part of the past two years in Florida State League and the Midwest League and is probably not projected to be a true prospect.  His minor-league K/IP statistics are not all that impressive and his arsenal is not made up of typical swing-and-miss type stuff.  However, I came away liking what I saw from Evans, even though there have been thousands of pitchers with similar stuff that have never sniffed the big leagues.  Evans' delivery is a bit complicated and it appears as if when he releases the ball he is throwing across his body or is facing the hitter at an extreme angle.  His arm angle is over-the-top and the best comparison that I can give is kind of a hybrid mix between Josh Collmenter and Jered Weaver.  The scouts were clearly there to see Colome (even though Evans was also just recently called up to AA), as most put their radar guns down when Evans was on the mound.  However, I was able to see from those that did keep the guns out that Evans' fastball sat at 85-90 mph, his slider clocked in around 81 mph, and his curve/slurve measured in at 74 mph.  I did not get a good read on what the velocity was on his changeup, but the pitch did feature some arm-side run (although he did telegraph a few by slowing down his windup considerably).  His fastball also featured some good arm-side run and he was able to sneak some in on right handed hitters.  Evans' pure stuff was nowhere near as dominant as Colome's but his line was a bit better for the night as he went 6+ innings (walked first two guys in 7th) for the win, giving up 6 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, while striking out 6.  Evans' future is nowhere near as bright as Colome's given his age and lack of velo, but his windup and pitching mechanics were deceptive enough to hitters that he was able to strike out 6 in 6 innings of work.  Given that this was only his 3rd appearance and 1st start in AA, it remains to be seen if hitters will be able to adjust and exploit Evans' pedestrian stuff or if his pitchability and deception will allow him to succeed and climb the ladder of professional baseball.

He struggled in his second start of 2011, against Trevor Bauer.  Here is what I wrote about that specific outing:

A player that I profiled previously, RHP Bryan Evans started opposite Trevor Bauer but had a very poor evening, as he struggled to find the strike zone (walked opposing SP Bauer twice) and his line read 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 4 K. Evans’ was not very consistent with any of his pitches, but especially his slider which seemed to be much more flat than the previous outing that I was able to see (IMO his curveball still seems to be the sharper breaking ball and a better option than the slider, even though he throws it only around 74-75 mph).  His FB velocity was still between 85-91 mph but again his command was sharp enough and he paid it, after being pulled early.

Evans finished 2011 in AA Jacksonville after dominating High-A (as a 24-year old) and posted solid numbers.  However, his strikeout rate was not impressive (only 27 in 37.1 IP or 6.5/9 IP). 

After seeing him this past Monday, I am not convinced that Evans can pitch in the big leagues. The first time I saw him, I noted that Evans’ delivery was deceptive.  However, Evans’ pure stuff leaves much to be desired so his command and sequencing need to be very sharp for him succeed as he climbs the ladder.  Recently, his command has been very mediocre, and he has actually walked more batters (24) than he has struck out (21) in just 30.2 innings of work.  Pitchers like Evans cannot succeed consistently with spotty command.  I had originally believed that Evans could turn into a back of the rotation innings eater if everything broke right, but after seeing him a few more times I think that if Evans is to ever make a MLB roster it will be as a middle-reliever or swingman.

Jake Smolinski

Last year I also got the chance to see Jake Smolinski (JAX) play a handful of times and here is what I had to say about him:

 Jake Smolinski, a 22 year old OF for the Jacksonville Suns was drafted in the 2nd round out of high school by the Washington Nationals.  He was traded to the Florida Marlins organization with Emilio Bonifacio for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham.  Smolinski is a converted 2B/3B that flashed some decent athleticism in the games that I attended.  He hit towards the bottom of the order, which is surprising for such a high draft pick, but nonetheless he put together quality ABs and was 2-3 off of Chris Archer. This is Smolinski's first season in AA and he has played pretty well so far and has been able to draw more walks, even though he only is hitting .259.  Overall, Smolinski looked like a pretty solid player and profiles as a 4th OF or maybe a 2nd-division starter type if he remains as a corner OF.

Smolinski finished 2011 in AA Jacksonville hitting. 245/.342/.364 with 26 2B and 7 HR. The first thing that I noticed this season was that Smolinski appeared to have filled out a little bit more.  The media guide listed him at 6’0, 205 and he clearly looked the part, with an athletic frame.   Now 23 years old, Smolinski is hitting .325/.440/.482 with 9 2B (and 0 HR) through 22 games with Jacksonville.  Smolinski’s value would be much greater if he could handle center field, but I clocked him at a slightly-below average 4.4 and 4.5 to first base so he is going to be limited to a corner spot.  His lack of raw power has to be slightly disconcerting, but he has a level-swing plane and has proved that he has solid gap-to-gap power.  At this point, Smolinski appears to a traditional tweener—not enough power to handle a corner and not athletic/fast enough to play in center field.  However, with his ability to get on base and put the bat on the ball he may still end up as a 2^nd-division starter.

Kyle Jensen

Last season I also saw Kyle Jensen play a couple of games in right field for the Jacksonville Suns.  Here is what I had to say about him:

The Suns’ RF Kyle Jensen was pretty impressive in both games that I saw (again limited sample size) as he showed the ability to barrel balls the other way (off Jarrod Parker) and flashed nice range in right field.

Jensen, a left-handed hitter clocked a 4.8 to 1^st base and looked below-average out in right field on Sunday night.  Suffice it to say, I was a bit off base in my observations last season.  As a 23-year old Jensen crushed Hi-A pitching in Jupiter and his numbers fell off a bit when promoted to Jacksonville towards the end on 2011.  Thus far he is struggling a bit at the plate.  I did not get to see Jensen play on Monday, but he (like many other Suns hitters) was overmatched by Trevor Bauer.  He has some power in the bat, but he is limited defensively and turns 24 on May 20th so he does not profile as a true prospect.  He may have some value as a bat-only 4^th OF/1B/DH type.

Sutil and Gilbert

A couple of Mobile Bay Bears caught my eye initially, but I quickly found out that they were journeymen chasing the dream.  SS Wladimir Sutil made a solid play to his left and flashed a strong arm, but the Venezuelan is 27 years old and is playing in AA for a fifth consecutive season.  CF Archie Gilbert was picked off by Jose Alvarez in Sunday night’s game, which led me to believe that Gilbert was a young player learning the nuances of professional baseball.  However, Gilbert is actually a soon to be 29-year old, so even though he showed a short, compact swing and hit 12 HRs last year in the Eastern League, he is not a true prospect either. 

Matt Davidson

Finally, Mobile 3B Matt Davidson caught my eye as well.  I did not do any research going into the series so I had not heard of Davidson before Sunday, but his solid numbers and role as cleanup hitter piqued my interest.  He has a “bad” body with some baby fat and looked like he might have to move to 1^st base in the future if he did not get into better shape.  Regardless, I liked his approach at the plate, and statistics show that he has been able to work more walks. Furthermore, Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks recently wrote about Davidson and noted that his footwork (defensively) and offensive approach have improved since his inaugural season.  Davidson was a supplemental first-round pick in 2009 and a .310/.433/.534 slash line as a 21 year old in AA shows that Davidson can hit.  I hope to see Davidson play again this season for a further and more complete evaluation.

5/6/12 and 5/7/12: Trevor Bauer, Jose Alvarez, Tyler Skaggs

On Sunday 5/6/12 and Monday 5/7/12 I attended two games of a five game series between the Mobile Bay Bears and the Jacksonville Suns.  I’ve covered the Suns and Bay Bears at length in some of my posts from last year.  Also, more recently I’ve posted a few columns revisiting some of my past observations for prospects such as Trevor Bauer.

Trevor Bauer (MOB)

I was fortunate enough to see Bauer again in Sunday’s contest.  In my 3Update on 5/1/12 I noted that there was still room for improvement as the right-hander had been struggling to pitch deep into games with a propensity for walks and high pitch counts.  Regardless, I still loved the pure stuff that Bauer brought to the table and believed that he would be able to pitch for the Diamondbacks in the near future.

His start on 5/6/12 was solid but I believe that his final line (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 5 K) was more impressive than the outing itself.  Although he only gave up one hit, Bauer struggled more than I thought he would in the first and second innings.  He consistently missed up in the zone with his fastball and had a couple of breaking balls hang over the middle of the plate that more polished hitters would have taken advantage of.  Furthermore, the fastball velocity was down significantly as it ranged from 87-91 mph.  However, as the evening progressed Bauer got into a bit of a groove, and from the third inning until his exit in the seventh inning his fastball would sit in the 89-93 mph range.  On a couple different occasions Bauer was able to reach back and hit 95.  He did not utilize the slider much except for a few sequences in the middle innings, but the pitch ranged from 78-85 mph and featured late, sharp 10-4 break that has the ability to miss bats.  Bauer’s changeup was between 80-83 mph with fade and arm-side run.  Like the slider, Bauer’s changeup was not utilized too much, so it was hard to get an accurate read on the potential of the pitch, but I think that he has developed a better feel for the pitch since I saw him in August of 2011.  Bauer was more liberal with the use of his curveball, which can be an absolutely devastating pitch.  The curveball sat between 73-77 mph, and while he threw a few hangers, the ones that were thrown harder (75-77 mph) were sharp and flashed as a plus-plus pitch at the MLB level. 

However, Bauer still struggled with his command, issuing 5 walks and going to many 2-3 ball counts throughout the outing.   While I don’t think that he had his best fastball (stuff and command-wise), if Bauer was able to command his secondary pitches (especially the CRV) more effectively I don’t think he would have been touched.  Some of this has to do with the limitations of the Suns’ lineup, but Bauer’s curveball was almost too good at times—he was not getting hitters to chase the pitch and was forced to revert to his fastball (which they were sitting on). 

There was definitely room for improvement, but I still liked what I saw from Bauer.  I got the feeling that Bauer was actually toying with JAX and was tinkering with things to try and see what could work or be effective.  There is a risk-reward with such an approach, as some pitchers can get too entrapped in this framework and forget about what got them there in the first place.  Hopefully, Bauer is able to further refine his command and efficiency because I think he still has the ceiling of an ace.

Jose Alvarez (JAX)

Bauer’s counterpart for the Jacksonville Suns was LHP Jose Alvarez.  The first thing that I noticed about Alvarez was his height, or lack thereof.  Alvarez is listed as 5’10, but I would not be surprised if he is 5’9 or perhaps 5’8.  Alvarez was extremely aggressive and pounded the strike zone with predominately fastballs with some arm-side run that sat between 87 and 91 mph.  Alvarez did not throw many off-speed pitches, but his go-to secondary pitch was a 81-85 slider that he used as a cutter against RH batters.  In my opinion, Alvarez did not utilize this pitch enough, and while it is not a plus pitch by any stretch of the imagination I think that it has the potential to be an average (50) pitch and is currently a 40-45 offering.  Alvarez threw his changeup even less frequently than the slider, so it was hard to get an accurate reading, but the pitch sat between 78-80 mph and did not appear to be a quality third pitch.  Alvarez, celebrating his 23^rd birthday on 5/6/12, caught the loss ().  I believe that Alvarez’s downfall was his inability and/or unwillingness to throw his secondary pitches more frequently.  I like Alvarez’s mentality and inclination to challenge hitters, but he does not feature an above-average fastball and his short stature does not allow him to throw from a downhill plane.  With an average fastball and average slider/cutter hybrid I can see Alvarez as a MLB middle reliever down the road.

Tyler Skaggs (MOB)

On Monday, 5/7/12, I was able to catch a few innings of the second game of the Mobile-Jacksonville series.  I went purely to watch Tyler Skaggs of Mobile pitch, as I have read many glowing reports about the young left-hander.  Skaggs pitched very well (7 IP, 5 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 7 K) and, like teammate Trevor Bauer, was able to stymie a weak and overmatched Jacksonville lineup.  Skaggs threw his fastball between 90 and 93 mph, and while he opened up early and missed high and away with the pitch occasionally, his command of the pitch was solid.  Skaggs slowed his arm speed a bit when he delivered his changeup, but the pitch, which sat around 80-82 mph, featured some fade and induced a couple of weak swings.  Currently, I would guess that the pitch is a fringe-average (45-50) MLB offering with the chance to be average to solid-average (50-55) with further refinement.  Finally, Skaggs’ curveball is a monster of a pitch.  Kevin Goldstein has noted that it is regarded as the best in the system, but I thought that such an assertion had to be hyperbole given Bauer’s hook.  However, on Monday I became a believer as the Skaggs’ curveball is a sharp 12-6’er and current 70-pitch that completely falls off of the table when thrown with a little more velocity (77 mph).  Skaggs’ slower (74-75 mph) curveballs were still very sharp and effective, but he did leave a few up in the zone as his arm had a tendency to drag behind his body before release. 

I did not watch Skaggs’ entire seven inning performance, but I left pretty impressed with what I had seen (stuffwise), although a recent article by Fangraphs’ and Scouting the Sally’s Mike Newman really resonated.  Newman discussed his reservations with Skaggs’ propensity to throw his curveball as not many current MLB pitchers utilize their curveball more than 30% of the time.  Skaggs did throw his curveball quite a lot on Monday (and one cannot blame him given the effectiveness of the pitch).  However, Skaggs needs to make sure that he does not fall in love with the pitch.  Minor-leaguers may not be able to handle his curve, but major-league bats may be able to exploit it if he throws it too often.  Skaggs is currently 20 years old and more than holding his own in AA, so one cannot be too critical of his performance thus far, but it will definitely be interesting to see how Skaggs progresses in the years to come.  

3Update 5/1/2012

In my last entry I re-examined some of my initial observations from 2011 on a number of players in the Tampa Bay Rays system. 

This time I will re-examine some of my scouting notes from various other prospects that I was able to see in game action.

1)      Jarrod Parker (RHP)

I was fortunate enough to watch Parker pitch against the Jacksonville Suns last August.  Parker was considered a top prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks system and I very excited about the opportunity to see Parker in action.  Here is what I wrote last year:

 Parker’s fastball sat at 90-94 throughout his six innings of work and hit 95 on a couple different occasions.  His best secondary pitch was his slider which sat around 83-84 mph and featured a sharp, two-plane break.  Parker was able to throw the slider very effectively to lefties as he was able to both backdoor it and bury underneath their hands and at their feet.

 Parker looked to have a very smooth and athletic throwing motion as he was able to consistently repeat his high-3/4 delivery from both the full windup and the stretch.  Parker scattered 3 hits, worked around 3 BB’s effectively, and was able to finish six innings without allowing a run.  Overall, Parker’s outing was not overly impressive but successful and solid in its own right.

 Parker finished 2011 with an 11-8 record, 3.79 ERA, and 112 K, and 112 H in 130.2 IP for AA Mobile. He also made his major league debut and pitched well (5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K).  In the offseason, Parker was part of a package of prospects that were shipped to Oakland for established starter Trevor Cahill.  This season, Parker has made one spot start in Oakland, going 6.1 innings and allowing seven hits, one walk, one earned run, and striking out five.  He has also been stellar in four starts for AAA for Sacramento (1-0, 20.2 IP, 22 H, 21 K, 2.18 ERA).  Some people have voiced their concerns about Parker’s ability to handle a heavy workload (~180 or 200 IP) because he missed all of 2010 recovering from Tommy John surgery and his velocity has not returned to the 96-98 MPH range.  However, given the success that Parker has had over the last season and change, and from what I was able to see in my limited time with him, I think that Parker will become a successful major league pitcher.  While he will undoubtedly encounter some struggles once he lands at the MLB level for an entire season, I think that Parker has the arsenal and ability to establish himself as a solid number two starter.

2)      Trevor Bauer (RHP)

Here is what I wrote about Bauer last year:

Although Jarrod Parker is widely considered a top prospect in all of baseball, I was more excited to watch Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 MLB First-Year Player Draft, pitch as it was his second career start in AA.  There has been much written about Bauer’s dominating career at UCLA, his slight frame and unique delivery, and the possibility of him pitching in the big leagues sometime this year.  Scouts and many people within the blogosphere have been wondering whether or not Bauer should even be pitching at this point because of his heavy workload (both innings and pitch count wise) this past spring/summer at UCLA.  Bauer’s outing was not as consistent as Parker’s was, yet his pure stuff seemed more impressive. Bauer’s windup and delivery often draw comparisons to Tim Lincecum’s and it does seem similar in some regards, but some of this comparison is also undoubtedly due to the fact that both are smaller in stature yet have excellent fastball velocity and sharp breaking pitches.  Bauer’s delivery is a bit complicated but he manages it well and is able to repeat his delivery at a pretty consistent rate. However, there were times within this specific outing that it looked like he was laboring and fighting against himself (but this could be due to a number of other factors—fatigue, loss of concentration, etc.)  Bauer’s fastball ranged from 91-95 mph and featured some arm-side run to it. He flashed a sharp slider and 12-6 curveball that was absolutely devastating at times and completely fell off the table.  His changeup featured some arm-side run and sink to it but his command of the pitch was spotty.  As I mentioned earlier, Bauer walked three in his five innings and went to two and three ball counts many times so it was clear that Bauer was not working with his best stuff or command.  However, he still managed to strike out eight batters and shatter a few bats in only five innings of work.  The homerun that he allowed was to Kyle Skipworth, a struggling prospect of which I have touched upon before, on a changeup that appeared to be a case of poor location as it was belt high and inside to the left-hander.  All in all, Bauer’s performance was very impressive and it is easy to see why there have been talks about him pitching in the majors later this year (although whether he should or shouldn’t is still up for debate).
 
Bauer only started seven games in the minor leagues last year (3 in High-A Visalia and 4 in AA Mobile) and finished with a combined line of 1-2, 5.96 ERA, 25.2 IP, 27 H, 12 BB, 43 K.  Many minor league statistics can be misleading, so the ERA and W-L should not be taken as indicators of Bauer’s true talent.  Instead, his ability to miss bats (43 K in 25.2 IP) shows that Bauer’s pure stuff is excellent.  Coming into the 2012 season there was a significant amount of buzz regarding Bauer’s assignment out of spring training—some believed he would be assigned to the big club.  However, Bauer was assigned to AA Mobile and has performed well thus far.  Through 5 starts, Bauer is 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 37 K in 28.2 IP.  While his W-L and ERA have improved significantly, there is still much room for improvement.  Bauer has averaged less than 6 IP/start and while some of this may be by design to limit his workload before he is eventually called up, there is something to be said for a starter that cannot eat innings and pitch efficiently.  His command has been problematic as well as he has surrendered 17 BB in his 28.2 IP.  While this is not an astounding number of free passes, major-league quality hitters will be able to lay off certain off-speed offerings that AA hitters cannot.   Although I only saw Bauer pitch once, it was easy to see that his pure stuff was outstanding and major-league quality.  He struggled to locate all of his pitches consistently in that start against the Jacksonville Suns and has still had some issues thus far in 2012.  However, I have no doubts that Bauer will eventually work out the kinks and pitch for the Diamondbacks in the near future.  If he is able to refine his command and adjust to major-league quality hitters, Bauer will be an ace.

 3/4) AJ Pollock (CF) and Ryan Wheeler (3B)

 Because I was so focused on Parker and Bauer, I had limited notes on AJ Pollock and Ryan Wheeler, but here is what I had to say:

 Mobile’s lineup had two position players that particularly intrigued me, CF AJ Pollock and 3B Ryan Wheeler.  Both Pollock and Wheeler were high draft picks out of their respective colleges, Notre Dame and Loyola Marymount (CA).  Pollock flashed good speed throughout both of the games that I was able to attend, beating out a groundball to the 2nd baseman.  He also flashed good range in CF and appeared to make good reads off the bat after the ball was put into play.  Ryan Wheeler, who I alluded to earlier when writing about Ramon Benjamin has had a solid year thus far and flashed his hit tool in both games that I attended.  Wheeler has a nice level swing plane and appeared to be very comfortable in the batter’s box as he was able to consistently repeat his swing mechanics and track balls out of the pitchers hand.  The one exception to this was his at-bat against Benjamin (also the only lefty that I remember seeing him face) where he looked all out of sorts.  It was hard to get a read on his work in the field because of limited opportunities, but he did not look to be very fluid when he allowed a foul pop-up to drop that probably should have been caught.  It would be foolish to draw any conclusions from one single play (and I’m sure numerous scouts could provide much more insight on Wheeler’s proficiency in the field), but it will be interesting to see how Wheeler develops in the field and if he can and will stick at 3B.

Pollock finished 2011 in Mobile and was very successful, hitting .307 with 41 2B, 5 3B, and 8 HR to go along with 36 SB. Clearly, Pollock, as the 17^th overall pick in the 2009 draft out of Notre Dame, was able to handle AA ball. His speed and defense are his biggest assets and provide the most value for his club.  He started 2012 at AAA Reno and was hitting .340 with 6 2B through 53 AB before being called up to Arizona when Chris Young was injured.  He has struggled since being called up, going 3-22, but such struggles are to be expected from a young player being forced into big-league action so early in the season.  Pollock will be sent back down to AAA once Young is healthy again, but Pollock is likely to see some more action later this year and will probably be a September call-up.  While he doesn’t have much power and does not walk much (only 44 BB in 550 AB in 2011) Pollock is a valuable asset but he does not possess an elite ceiling and probably projects to be an average MLB CF at best.

 Wheeler also finished 2011 in Mobile, hitting .294 (.358 OBP) with 30 2B and 16 HR in 480 AB.  Kevin Goldstein did not have Wheeler rated in his Top 20 for the Diamondbacks, but minorleagueball.com’s John Sickels had Wheeler listed as #14.  Last year, as one can see in my notes, I expressed my reservations about Wheeler’s ability field but was unwilling to commit to throwing a grade or making a full evaluation on it given the lack of opportunities Wheeler had.  In his rankings Sickels notes that Wheeler’s glove is “mediocre.”  Wheeler has gotten off to a hot start in 2012 in AAA Reno as he is hitting .316 with 5 2B and 4 HR in 95 AB.  It appears as if Wheeler, like Pollock, has established himself as a polished yet unspectacular commodity.  While Pollock lacks the power and patience, Wheeler is limited defensively and may not be a reliable everyday third baseman.  If that is the case, Wheeler will probably be forced into becoming a part-time/bench option which is still an important if not gaudy role for a major league club to fill.