Wednesday, August 24, 2011

"Scouting" in the Southern League (Mobile v. Jacksonville)


On Wednesday, August 17th and Saturday August 20th I was able to attend games between the Mobile Bay Bears (AA Affiliate of Arizona Diamondbacks) and the Jacksonville Suns (AA Affiliate of Florida Marlins).  Both games featured top prospect starting pitchers for Mobile as RHP Jarrod Parker and RHP Trevor Bauer took the mound on the 17th and 20th respectively.  Parker was a first-round draft pick in 2007, but missed all of 2010 due to an arm injury.  Trevor Bauer was the third overall pick in this past May’s draft out of UCLA.  Both pitchers earned the win and had relatively solid outings statistically speaking as Parker’s line read 6 IP, 3H, 3 BB, 0 ER, and 6 K while Bauer’s read 5 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 ER (1 HR), and 8 K.

Parker’s fastball sat at 90-94 throughout his six innings of work and hit 95 on a couple different occasions.  His best secondary pitch was his slider which sat around 83-84 mph and featured a sharp, two-plane break.  Parker was able to throw the slider very effectively to lefties as he was able to both backdoor it and bury underneath their hands and at their feet.  I did not pick up on many changeups or curveballs by Parker, but it was more difficult to pick up on the subtleties of his performance as I was located in the bleachers in right center field.  However, Parker looked to have a very smooth and athletic throwing motion as he was able to consistently repeat his high-3/4 delivery from both the full windup and the stretch.  Parker scattered 3 hits, worked around 3 BB’s effectively, and was able to finish six innings without allowing a run.  Overall, Parker’s outing was not overly impressive but successful and solid in its own right.

Although Jarrod Parker is widely considered a top prospect in all of baseball, I was more excited to watch Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 MLB First-Year Player Draft, pitch as it was his second career start in AA.  There has been much written about Bauer’s dominating career at UCLA, his slight frame and unique delivery, and the possibility of him pitching in the big leagues sometime this year.  Scouts and many people within the blogosphere have been wondering whether or not Bauer should even be pitching at this pointbecause of his heavy workload (both innings and pitch count wise) this past spring/summer at UCLA.  Bauer’s outing was not as consistent as Parker’s was, yet his pure stuff seemed more impressive (It should be noted that for Bauer’s outing I was in the scouting section behind home plate, whereas for Parker’s outing I was in the outfield bleachers).  Bauer’s windup and delivery often draw comparisons to Tim Lincecum’s and it does seem similar in some regards, but some of this comparison is also undoubtedly due to the fact that both are smaller in stature yet have excellent fastball velocity and sharp breaking pitches.  Bauer’s delivery is a bit complicated but he manages it well and is able to repeat his delivery at a pretty consistent rate. However, there were times within this specific outing that it looked like he was laboring and fighting against himself (but this could be due to a number of other factors—fatigue, loss of concentration, etc.)  Bauer’s fastball ranged from 91-95 mph and featured some arm-side run to it. He flashed a sharp slider and 12-6 curveball that was absolutely devastating at times and completely fell off the table.  His changeup featured some arm-side run and sink to it but his command of the pitch was spotty.  As I mentioned earlier, Bauer walked three in his five innings and went to two and three ball counts many times so it was clear that Bauer was not working with his best stuff or command.  However, he still managed to strike out eight batters and shatter a few bats in only five innings of work.  The homerun that he allowed was to Kyle Skipworth, a struggling prospect of which I have touched upon before, on a changeup that appeared to be a case of poor location as it was belt high and inside to the left-hander.  All in all, Bauer’s performance was very impressive and it is easy to see why there have been talks about him pitching in the majors later this year (although whether he should or shouldn’t is still up for debate). 

I have covered many of the Jacksonville Suns’ position players in previous posts, but there were a few new players that briefly caught my eye.  SS Jeff Dominguez made a few nice plays in the field for the Suns including a great play up the middle that demonstrated his range and arm strength as his throw was able to beat Mobile’s leadoff hitter and RF Adam Eaton.  Dominguez, 26, had been called up to fill in for Chris Gutierrez, but has since been sent back down to the Marlin’s Florida State League (High-A) and appears to be an organizational player more than anything else, as his bat has been nothing throughout the minors.  The Suns’ RF Kyle Jensen was pretty impressive in both games that I saw (again limited sample size) as he showed the ability to barrel balls the other way (off Jarrod Parker) and flashed nice range in right field.

Another player that I got a quick look at was Suns’ reliever LHP Ramon Benjamin.  I had seen Benjamin before and was able to get a better sense of what kind of pitcher he was this time around because of my seats behind homeplate. Bejamin has a very complicated delivery that does not seem very conducive to a long, healthy career because it looks to put a lot of stress on his elbow, but he really only profiles a reliever and lefty-specialist anyway so it may not be a major issue. Benjamin was effectively wild in his appearance and was able to strike out (left-handed hitting) Mobile 3B Ryan Wheeler (who is having a great year at the plate) with a series of sliders in the dirt that were clocked at 85 mph and fastballs that were clocked between 90 and 95 mph.  Bejamin was also able to effectively work against right-handed hitters, although from my perspective it seems as if he would be only be suitable/effective as a lefty-specialist role at the major-league level.

A player that I profiled previously, RHP Bryan Evans started opposite Trevor Bauer but had a very poor evening, as he struggled to find the strike zone (walked opposing SP Bauer twice) and his line read 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 4 K. Evans’ was not very consistent with any of his pitches, but especially his slider which seemed to be much more flat than the previous outing that I was able to see (IMO his curveball still seems to be the sharper breaking ball and a better option than the slider, even though he throws it only around 74-75 mph).  His FB velocity was still between 85-91 mph but again his command was sharp enough and he paid it, after being pulled early.

Mobile’s lineup had two position players that particularly intrigued me, CF AJ Pollock and 3B Ryan Wheeler.  Both Pollock and Wheeler were high draft picks out of their respective colleges, Notre Dame and Loyola Marymount (CA).  Pollock flashed good speed throughout both of the games that I was able to attend, beating out a groundball to the 2nd baseman.  He also flashed good range in CF and appeared to make good reads off the bat after the ball was put into play.  Ryan Wheeler, who I alluded to earlier when writing about Ramon Benjamin has had a solid year thus far and flashed his hit tool in both games that I attended.  Wheeler has a nice level swing plane and appeared to be very comfortable in the batter’s box as he was able to consistently repeat his swing mechanics and track balls out of the pitchers hand.  The one exception to this was his at-bat against Benjamin (also the only lefty that I remember seeing him face) where he looked all out of sorts.  It was hard to get a read on his work in the field because of limited opportunities, but he did not look to be very fluid when he allowed a foul pop-up to drop that probably should have been caught.  It would be foolish to draw any conclusions from one single play (and I’m sure numerous scouts could provide much more insight on Wheeler’s proficiency in the field), but it will be interesting to see how Wheeler develops in the field and if he can and will stick at 3B.

Updates
  • Montgomery SP Chris Archer won Southern League Pitcher of the Week Award after allowing just 1 hit (albeit with 5 BB) in 7 innings of work. Archer was also just called up to AAA Durham.


  • Montgomery SS Tim Beckham who was called up to AAA Durham over a week ago has continued to hit well at the next level as he has hit .291 with 3 HR in 55 AB.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Prospect Update

Last week I highlighted a number of prospects for the Florida Marlins and Tampa Rays after seeing their AA affiliates--the Jacksonville Suns and Montgomery Biscuits.  I haven't had a chance to attend/scout any more games since last week, so instead here is a brief update on what these prospects have done within the last week.


Montgomery Biscuits

  • Tim Beckham, who I noted was easily the best prospect on the field during the Suns-Biscuits series, has since been promoted to the Ray's AAA-affiliate the Durham Bulls.  Beckham went 5-16 with 2 2B, 2 SB, and 4 RBI in his last five games at Montgomery.  The only other SS on Durham's roster at this point is Ray Olmedo, a 30 year old journeyman-type, so Beckham figures to receive a decent amount of playing type and those within the Rays organization will undoubtedly be keeping a close eye to see if Beckham can continue to produce offensively and improve his defense.
  • OF Kyeong Kang has continued to get on base.  Kang has gone 4-15 with a HR, 4 RBI, and 2 BB in his last five games.  
  • According to milb.com 2B Shawn O'Malley, a personal favorite of mine after seeing him play last week, has only played in one game since the Jacksonville series.  In his one appearance against the Mobile BayBears O'Malley was 0-3 with a BB, 2K, but also 2 SB.  The MTG Biscuits roster now lists O'Malley as SS and Cole Figueroa as a 2B (rather than 3B).  The Biscuits also appear to have called up SS prospect Hak-Ju Lee from the Florida State League, so it may be that O'Malley is dinged up, or more likely is splitting time between SS and 2B behind both Lee, a higher rated prospect, and Figueroa, who has a more potent, powerful bat than O'Malley.
  • RHP Chris Archer has had one successful start since the series against Jacksonville.  Archer went 5 innings, gave up 3 hits, 1 earned run, 3 BB, and struck out 6.  
  • RHP Alexander Colome who I covered in more detail in Part 3 of my analysis, also had a successful start against Mobile.  Colome went deeper into the game (7 IP) than Archer, thanks in part due to better command (only 2 BB).  However, Colome only struck out two batters in his seven innings of work, compared to his 6 K in 6.1 IP against Jacksonville. 
  • RHP Matt Bush has appeared in two games since last week's series.  Both of his relief stints were 2 innings long and in his 4 IP Bush struck out 5 hitters without walking anybody.  However, he did allow a HR.



Jacksonville Suns 

  • C Kyle Skipworth has continued to struggle at the plate going 2 for his last 16, with one of his hits being a HR.
  • LF Jake Smolinski has also similarly since the series against Montgomery as he has also gone 2 for his last 16.
  • RHP Bryan Evans has had one start since his victory against MTG on 8/3.  Evans went 7 innings against the Chattanooga Lookouts (AA for LA Dodgers) and somehow only let up 2 ER as he gave up 10 hits, walked 1, and struck out only 1.  This stat line, like Evans' pure stuff is not very impressive (although he did record 6K against MTG), but somehow Evans managed to record another quality start.
  • 2B Jim Negrych has continued to produce solid results, as he has gone 9-18 in the past 6 games.  Negrych, who has no overwhelming tools per-se has been very productive all season long for Jacksonville, with a slash line of .320/.389/.421.  However, until Negrych develops more pop in his bat  it may be difficult for him to be considered a true prospect.  Regardless, if he continues to hit for average he could eventually find himself on a MLB bench as a role player.

Friday, August 5, 2011

"Scouting" in the Southern League (Pt. 3--Position Players & Other Notes)

      It is harder to evaluate position players (hitters) than it is pitchers because they have less opportunities throughout a single game to showcase their abilities at the plate and at the field.  A position player may get only three or four plate appearances whereas a starting pitcher directly affects every single pitch for as long as he is in the game.  Furthermore, the position player (read: fielder) may not even get a single ball hit to him all game, so grading one's defensive abilities takes time and patience.  Again, even though I am no professional scout I will attempt to analyze the play of a few position players from both the Montgomery Biscuits and the Jacksonville Suns.
      
     Tim Beckham, age 21, is a shortstop prospect for the Montgomery Biscuits who was drafted 1st overall in the 2008 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays.  Beckham had a rough first three seasons in the minors and some people were already proclaiming the youngster a bust.  Kevin Goldstein rated Beckham as the Rays' 18th best prospect coming into the season and John Sickels gave Beckham a C+ grade before opening day.  By both accounts Beckham's 2011 was going to largely be a make-or-break type of year. So far this season his numbers have been pretty solid and after watching him for three games I can confidently say that he was the best position player on the field for either team.  Beckham has quick wrists at the plate and shows some pop in his bat.  He looked to have a solid approach and was quick to exploit pitchers who left balls over the plate or attacked him early in the count with fastballs.  He flashed good opposite field power as he took the first pitch that he saw from Bryan Evans (a fastball) to the right center field gap for a double. He also hit a number of other balls hard  throughout the series that resulted in outs. Some of Beckham's detractors point to his fielding and after seeing him firsthand they do have a point.  Beckham showed solid range on a couple of plays to his left, but he also committed one throwing error and was bailed out by his first baseman on another.  Both plays were relatively routine groundballs, but Beckham sat back and gave himself an in between hop.  His rhythm was thrown off which altered his throws.  It appears as if he has the athleticism to play shortstop, but he needs to make the plays easier for himself and keep his concentration in the field if he is to stay at the position (there is some thought that he will eventually have to move to 3rd base).


      Kyeong Kang (LF/RF) for Montgomery, age 23, was a 15th round draft pick out of a Georgia high school. The native South Korean was not listed in the Top 20 pre-season lists of TB prospects by Goldstein or Sickels, but he did impress me throughout the series. Kang played for the World Team in the 2009 Futures Game, but had a poor 2010 season in the  High-A Florida State League for Charlotte.  2011 has been a bounce back year for Kang as he currently sports an OBP of .395.  Again, minor-league statistics can sometimes be misleading and do not always tell the whole story, but I came away thinking that Kang may have a bright future.  He showed a good approach at the plate, was able to fight off tough pitches with two strikes, and hit a number of balls solidly.  Kang's wrists were not as quick as Beckham's and his swing did appear to be a bit long.  Kang also has questionable athleticism and his power numbers are not ideal for a corner outfielder.  However, Kang did show off a very strong and accurate arm as he had two outfield assists in the three games that I was able to attend.  I enjoyed watching Kang play and think that he could profile as a second division starter or a 4th OF type at the MLB level.


      Shawn O'Malley is a 23 year old second baseman for Montgomery that was drafted in the 5th round out of his high school in Washington state.  O'Malley is a good athlete as he was first-team all-state as a wide receiver, defensive back, and kick returner.  Like Kang, O'Malley was not listed on Goldstein or Sickels top prospect lists, and in all honesty he does not warrant a spot on a top prospect list.  O'Malley has very little power (2 career minor league homeruns in 1678 plate appearances (via FanGraphs) which limits his value drastically.  However, in my mind O'Malley is still a fine player.  He is a switch hitter that shows quick hands from both sides of the plate and has solid speed.  He also had a tendency to work the count well and provide some quality ABs.  O'Malley is athletic and he would provide an organization more value if he could play SS, but it appeared that he did not have the necessary skill set to do so.  He looked good at second base and made a very nice play to his right which highlighted his range, but did not appear to translate well to move across the diamond.  Overall, O'Malley is a fine, pesky player that is a joy to watch but he will undoubtedly face an uphill battle in his quest to reach the majors.


     Brett Nommensen is a 24 year old OF for Montgomery that was drafted in the eight round of the 2009 draft out of Eastern Illinois University.  Nommensen was just recently called up to AA and he started two games in the five game series.  Nommensen has not hit particularly well in his brief minor league career, but he has shown an ability to draw walks and get on base (.391 OBP between High A and AA this year).  Nommensen stole 35 bases last year (and 20 so far this year), but did not seem to be especially fast as he was thrown out on a slow roller to 3rd in Game 1.  Like Kang and O'Malley, Nommensen saw a number of pitches, had quality at bats, and rarely seemed to be fooled by off-speed offerings.  Nommensen was 2-6 in the series and it will be interesting to see how much playing time he receives for the rest of his AA stint.


      Like Tim Beckham, catcher Kyle Skipworth was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft (sixth overall to Beckham's first).  However, unlike Beckham Skipworth has not been able to put it together at the plate.  Skipworth, just 21 is very close to being rightfully labeled as a bust. Kevin Goldstein rated Skipworth as the Marlins' 9th overall prospect coming into the season. In his three plus minor-league seasons Skipworth has failed to hit over .250 and he does not draw enough walks to provide a meaningful on-base percentage. From what I saw it seemed as though Skipworth had a very uneven swing path which was consistently loopy.  Furthermore, he did not respond well at all to any quality off-speed pitch.  Finally, Skipworth had a poor weight transfer and tended to jump at pitches rather than explode through the ball with quick wrists. Skipworth has some power in his bat, as he hit 17 HR last year, but if he does not turn things around soon his future may be in jeopardy. I was not accurately able to assess Skipworth's defensive attributes behind the plate, so even if Skipworth does not hit he may be able to sneak his way into the major-leagues as a defense-only catcher.


     Jake Smolinski, a 22 year old OF for the Jacksonville Suns was drafted in the 2nd round out of high school by the Washington Nationals.  He was traded to the Florida Marlins organization with Emilio Bonifacio for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham.  Smolinski is a converted 2B/3B that flashed some decent athleticism in the games that I attended.  He hit towards the bottom of the order, which is surprising for such a high draft pick, but nonetheless he put together many quality ABs and was 2-3 off of the previously mentioned prospect Chris Archer (see Pt. 2 below).  This is Smolinski's first season in AA and he has played pretty well so far and has been able to draw more walks, even though he only is hitting .259.  Overall, Smolinski looked like a pretty solid player and profiles as a 4th OF or maybe a 2nd-division starter type if he remains as a corner OF.


   Other players of note that I watched were Montgomery CF John Shelby (very athletic, quick wrists, and solid raw power), Jacksonville 2B Jim Negrych (6th round draft pick in 2006, limited physical tools, but has been hitting well (from the left side) this year), Montgomery LHP Neil Schenk (25 year old with good velocity from left side, sharp slider, questionable command), and Jacksonville RHP Zach Simons (26 year old w/ pretty solid AA and AAA stats, throws from deceptive 3/4 arm angle and features a fastball with good arm-side run).


     Many of the players that I mentioned above may never play in the big leagues, but some may go on to have successful, long lasting careers.  Scouting in general, but especially position players is more tedious than evaluating pitching prospects and I may be way off in my personal projections, but the players that do end up in the majors do so because they are able to adjust to obstacles that they are faced with.  It remains to be seen whom, if any of the players that I was able see this past week, are able to adjust and fully develop into the kind of player that can be successful at the highest level of professional baseball.

"Scouting" in the Southern League (Pt. 2--Pitchers)

        Like I mentioned in my last entry (Pt. 1) I only attended Games 1, 2, and 4 of the 5 game series.  Game 1's starting pitchers, Jim Paduch for Montgomery and Joseph O'Gara of Jacksonville are not considered to be true prospects and their arsenal was nothing special as both featured average velocity on their fastballs (again without a working radar gun their true velocity is unknown) and spotty command.  O'Gara only struck out one batter in 7 innings, while Paduch struck out 4 in six innings, but also struggled to put away batters and surrendered 4 BB.          
      
     There did not appear to be many scouts in attendance for Game 1 because of the relatively unappealing pitching match-up, but Jhan Marinez (Jacksonville) did appear out of the bullpen in the eighth inning.  Marinez, 22, is rated as the #7 prospect in the Marlins farm system by Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein.  Marinez's one inning featured a lead-off walk to the 9 hitter which was quickly followed by a wild pitch and an RBI single. He then settled down to record three straight outs, including a K to end the inning.  Although the results were quite mixed, the process showed great promise as Marinez flashed a fastball with good velocity. Again, due to my limitations without a radar gun I can not put an exact figure on the pitch, but it was evident that the velocity was overpowering.  Marinez struggled a bit with his command as evidenced by the BB and WP but I liked his make-up on the mound and his ability to work out of trouble (albeit self-imposed).  Goldstein noted in the pre-season that he expected Marinez to start in AAA after spring training broke, yet Marinez has stayed in Jacksonville thus far this year.  He has had a pretty solid season so far striking out 60 in 44.1 IP, but he still needs to fine-tune his command as he has also given up 36 BB.  Overall, I came away pretty impressed with Marinez and the outing that I saw seems to be indicative of his season so far--overpowering stuff with a lack of command.  I would expect Marinez to be called up to AAA sometime this year and he could also be a September call-up for the Marlins.
      
     Like Jacksonville, Montgomery also used an overpowering RHP out of the bullpen after pulling their starter.  Matt Bush, 25, former 1st overall pick by the San Diego Padres in 2004 pitched 2 innings of relief work for the Biscuits. Drafted as a SS, Bush has resurrected his baseball career after being out of the game for a number of years.  Bush pitched 13.2 innings last year in the GCL and Florida State League, but this year has been his first true test as a pitcher.  Because of his age and relative inexperience as a pitcher, Bush was not featured on many prospect lists coming into the season.  However, his outing in Game 1 was pretty impressive. Bush pitched 2 innings, surrendered 2 walks, yet struck out 4 and did not allow any hits or runs.  He flashed an overpowering fastball that appeared to be in the mid-90s and had decent command of the pitch.  His breaking ball was sharp and froze a couple of hitters for called third strikes, but his command of the pitch was spotty.  Bush does not have the typical pitchers body, only standing at 5-9" but he has thick legs and a strong torso, along with a very strong arm, which allows him to create such great torque and pitch in the mid 90s.  With some more seasoning and experience Bush may eventually find himself in a MLB bullpen in the future.
       
      Game 2 of the series featured a prominent starting pitching prospect, as Chris Archer of Montgomery took the mound. Archer, 22, was a part of the package sent to the Rays by the Chicago Cubs this past offseason in the Matt Garza trade.  Archer was rated as the #4 prospect by Kevin Goldstein and #5 prospect by Minor League Ball's John Sickels in the pre-season.  Thus far Archer has had a decent 2011 campaign in AA as he has 100 K in 113.1 IP, but has also allowed 65 BB and has 14 WP (via FanGraphs).  BP's Goldstein noted before the season that Archer's development would depend on his command as he has always had trouble throwing strikes consistency.  Again, in Game 2 I sat down the right field line and the radar gun was not functioning so it was impossible to get an accurate reading of Archer's velocity, but Goldstein wrote that Archer sits around 92-94 and that his power slider can be un-hittable when its on. Archer was not at the top of his game when I saw him, but he was pretty impressive nontheless. His fastball overpowered a number of Suns hitters and his slider definitely had a sharp bite on it.  However, his outing was typical of the reports as he did struggle some with command allowing 4 BB in 6 IP (although the umpire's strike zone was tight throughout the game).
      
     Archer was relieved by Marquis Fleming, a 24 year old righty drafted in the 24th round out of Cal State Stanislaus.  Fleming has put up solid stats thus far, with 90 K in 63.2 innings (via FanGraphs).  However, minor-league statistics are not always great indicators of true talent level because things such as age and experience vary by level.  I got the opportunity to watch Fleming warm-up as I was situated near the visitor's bullpen.  Fleming showed solid run and sink on his two-seam fastball and he was able to utilize this pitch to get out of trouble and induce a double play in the eight inning.  He didn't have the strongest line of the night, and he may only be a middle-reliever type but I liked what I saw from Fleming and could envision him coming out of the bullpen as a middle-man in the majors at some point in his career.
       
      As I mentioned in Part 1, I was able to sit behind home plate in the scouting area for Game 4 and I am confident that I picked the best game of the series to do so.  Whereas I had only seen a handful of scouts at Games 1 and 2, there were about 15 or so at Game 4 to see Alexander Colome of Montgomery pitch.  Colome, out of the Domincan Republic is the nephew of former Devil Ray (and apparent current Colorado Springs) reliever Jesus Colome.  The start on Wednesday was only Colome's third of the season at the AA level.  He had been pitching well in the Florida State League this year before his call-up, going 9-5 with a 3.66 ERA.  Colome was rated as the #6 prospect in the Rays system by Kevin Goldstein, who said that Colome offers a plus-plus fastball that sits at 93-95 and can touch 97.  Goldstein further wrote that Colome has the potential to be a star-level rotation piece with plenty of strikeouts.  Colome did not disappoint as he brought tremendous pure stuff to the table. 
        
      Mechanically, Colome throws with a very loose arm action and he generates a ton of power behind his slight, skinny frame through his burst off the rubber (For comparison his windup almost had a Pedro Martinez-like look to it).  He had decent enough command of his fastball throughout the game, although in the middle innings (3rd and 4th) Colome seemed to lose some of his command and had to battle through some long at-bats.  Like Kevin Goldstein wrote, Colome's fastball did indeed sit at 93-95 and hit 96 on a number of occasions.  His curveball was sharp after using mainly his fastball in the first inning he put away two hitters with his power-curve (76-78 mph) in the second inning.  His changeup had some good armside run to it and usually clocked in around 85-87 mph, but he did not throw it all that much (although throw a great one to Kyle Skipworth in the 6th inning).  His slider/cutter usually registered at 87-90 mph, although he did throw a few slower (83-85 mph). The pitch was particularly effective to lefties down and in.  Overall, Colome had a pretty solid evening as he pitched into the 7th inning, going 6.1 allowing 4 hits, 4 BB, 2 ER, and striking out 6.  Like I said, Colome looked a bit lost in the 3rd and 4th innings and showed visible signs of frustration on the mound, but he was able to put it together and put together a solid 4th and 5th inning.  Colome will undoubtedly need more time on the farm to work on the command of all of his pitches but his pure stuff does project well and if he continues to develop he could be a quality starter in the big leagues in a few years.
       
     Colome's counterpart on Wednesday night was Bryan Evans, a 14th round draft pick out of UC-Davis in  2008.  Evans, 24, has spent the better part of the past two years in Florida State League and the Midwest League and is probably not projected to be a true prospect.  His minor-league K/IP statistics are not all that impressive and his arsenal is not made up of typical swing-and-miss type stuff.  However, I came away liking what I saw from Evans, even though there have been thousands of pitchers with similar stuff that have never sniffed the big leagues.  Evans' delivery is a bit complicated and it appears as if when he releases the ball he is throwing across his body or is facing the hitter at an extreme angle.  His arm angle is over-the-top and the best comparison that I can give is kind of a hybrid mix between Josh Collmenter and Jered Weaver.  The scouts were clearly there to see Colome (even though Evans was also just recently called up to AA), as most put their radar guns down when Evans was on the mound.  However, I was able to see from those that did keep the guns out that Evans' fastball sat at 85-90 mph, his slider clocked in around 81 mph, and his curve/slurve measured in at 74 mph.  I did not get a good read on what the velocity was on his changeup, but the pitch did feature some arm-side run (although he did telegraph a few by slowing down his windup considerably).  His fastball also featured some good arm-side run and he was able to sneak some in on right handed hitters.  Evans' pure stuff was nowhere near as dominant as Colome's but his line was a bit better for the night as he went 6+ innings (walked first two guys in 7th) for the win, giving up 6 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, while striking out 6.  Evans' future is nowhere near as bright as Colome's given his age and lack of velo, but his windup and pitching mechanics were deceptive enough to hitters that he was able to strike out 6 in 6 innings of work.  Given that this was only his 3rd appearance and 1st start in AA, it remains to be seen if hitters will be able to adjust and exploit Evans' pedestrian stuff or if his pitchability and deception will allow him to succeed and climb the ladder of professional baseball.
    
   In the forthcoming Pt. 3 (and final part of the series about the Montgomery-Jacksonville series) I will discuss some position players and briefly mention some relievers that I did not get a chance to get to in this entry.

"Scouting" in the Southern League (Pt. 1--The Intro.)

        The Jacksonville Suns (AA Affiliate for the Florida Marlins) and the Montgomery Biscuits (AA Affiliate for the Tampa Bay Rays) just finished a 5 game series last night.  As a part of my interest in becoming more acquainted with the scouting world I attended Games 1, 2, and 4 of the series.  The Suns won Games 1 and 4 by scores of 3-2 and 6-2, while Montgomery took game 2 by the score of 9-3.  However, any scout (or wannabe scout such as myself) will be quick to note that the results of any minor-league competition are far less important than the process that individual players show while at the plate, in the field, or on the mound.   Similarly, the responsibilities of managers and assistant coaches at the minor-league levels are different than those of say Bruce Bochy, as minor-league coaches are more concerned with cultivating players' development (physical, mental, emotional) and preparing players for the rigors of playing high-quality professional baseball day in and day out.  One thing that stood out to me in particular was the willingness of managers to let pitchers pitch through trouble.  In all three of the games that I attended I noticed that the managers for both teams would tend let their relievers finish out innings regardless of batter-handedness and if the pitcher had been struggling with command.  This rarely happens in MLB, unless the game is a blow out, but again these decisions show that managers are not as concerned with winning as they are about pitchers learning to get themselves out of trouble and face all kinds of hitters.  Furthermore, such decisions allow scouts and player development personnel to evaluate and try to predict whether or not certain pitchers will cut it against RH or LH batters at the major-league level.
         Although I tried to view these games as a scout would I must make note of the fact that I am not a scout.  I'm sure people would be quick to tell me that I have little idea about true talent evaluation as I am only a blogger with 14 twitter followers, and for the most part they would be correct. However, I attended these games in order to become more accustomed to scouting a minor-league game and am only writing this blog to explain my observations and develop my scouting acumen.
         I am usually very observant and even when I attended games as a "fan" I was constantly making observations about players, situations, talent level, etc., but attending the game as a "scout" has a whole different feel about it as one has to be constantly tuned in to every minute detail.In Games 1 and 2 of the series I sat down the RF line near the visitors bullpen.  They were quality seats from a fan perspective as I was pretty close to the action, but it was difficult to scout position players while they were in the field, especially for an amateur like myself.  Additionally, the radar gun at the stadium was not active so I could not get an entirely accurate assessment of pitch velocity.  However, I still feel that I was able gain some valuable insight on players from both squads despite these minor limitations.  Furthermore, towards the end of Game 2 I was able to view the last few innings from behind home plate so I was able to get a little better feel for what I was seeing.  In Game 4 I decided to sit behind home-plate in a section where it was nearly only scouts.  While at games 1 and 2 I noticed that there were very few scouts in attendance, but in Game 4 there were quite a bit more as they were on hand to see a solid pitching prospect for the MTG Biscuits perform in one of his first appearances at the AA level.  Sitting behind home-plate in the scouting section made things a bit easier as I was able to peek at their radar guns and see the depth and movement of breaking pitches.
       This entry was just an introduction (see title) as I just wanted to provide some insight into the games that I attended and explain the vantage points that I had for each game.  As I have noted throughout, I am not a true scout and it would be foolish of me to play one at this point.  Therefore in my next entry (the aptly named Pt. 2), in which I actually provide some observations on Suns and Biscuits players, I am going to do my best to avoid applying labels and grades to prospects (ex: plus arm or C+ prospect).  I will also make note of works of established writers/scouts such as Kevin Goldstein, Jason Parks, and John Sickels to provide some background information and professional evaluation of "tools" in general and specific players.

Monday, August 1, 2011

The Tom Smykowski Edition

       
   It is August 1st and the trade deadline is officially over, although there are sure to be a few waiver deals in the next few weeks as well.  However, for all intents and purposes all of the major wheeling and dealing has been done until the end of the 2011 season.  If baseball is considered to be America's pastime, then analyzing trade-deadline trades (and roster management in general) could arguably be considered a close second as anybody is who is anybody in the baseball world has opined about the many deals in the last few days. Because I, like so many others, am striving for 'relevancy' (via Hipster Runoff) I figured that would do something similar and discuss  three trades in particular.  


        However, before getting into any "analysis", I think that it is important to understand that there are no real "winners" or "losers" yet.  Some of the deals may have been done for a few days and guys like Hunter Pence or Colby Rasmus may have already played a few games for their new teams, but it is far too early to definitively say that this franchise "won" the deal while so-and-so are deadline "losers."  Every trade and roster move in general has to be taken in context, but oftentimes such considerations are afterthoughts in the spectacle that is the 24-hour news cycle.  The true trade deadline "winners" and "losers" will be revealed within the next three, four, or five years.


Cleveland Rox, Ubaldo (70-grade pun) 
        Ubaldo Jimenez was dealt after all, but it was to the Cleveland Indians, not the Sox or the Yanks or even the Texas Rangers, all teams known for making a big splash around the trading deadline.  Instead it was Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro who made the most surprising deal of the deadline (year maybe).  Jimenez was traded to CLE in return for a package of prospects that include RHP Alex White, 1B Matt McBride, RHP Joe Gardner, and PTBNL (will be LHP Drew Pomeranz).  
        Media heads and stat heads alike were both surprised by the trade and many people are not sure what to make of it.  It seems as if some people are giving CLE daps for going after the big horse, while others are wondering if they gave up to much to get a Ubaldo Jimenez that has not been as dominant or consistent as he was for the first 3 months of 2010.  I'm not a true talent evaluator and I certainly don't know as much about sabermetrics and advanced statistics as many other bloggers and baseball personalities, but I think that this trade makes more sense than it does on the surface.  
          CLE is only 2.5 games back of DET right now and they have somehow managed to keep themselves in the division race without a true ace and an overall average pitching staff.  Sure, Justin Masterson has been great this season and Tomlin and Huff have been acceptable as mid-to back end rotation guys, but the Indians undoubtedly needed somebody with the ability to miss more bats than the cast that they had.  Jimenez's stuff has fallen off this year, as reports are that his fastball is averaging 2 MPH less. Similarly, his K/9 has decreased from 2010, but his pure stuff is still light-years ahead of every other CLE starter.  Furthermore, Jimenez's friendly contract also played a role as he is under team control at an affordable rate for the next two and a half seasons (with a 2014 option).  
         Therefore, I find it hard to believe the argument that CLE is chasing the division this season.  They are definitely trying to compete this year, but when one looks at the trade deeper it seems as if adding Jimenez was actually a move that will pay out higher down the road.  Many of CLE's position players are young and promising prospects (3B Lonnie Chisenhall, 2B Jason Kipnis), others have recently established themselves as stars (SS Asdrubal Cabrera, C/1B Carlos Santana), and others are All-Star caliber who have produced (for the most part) when healthy (RF Shin-Soo Choo, DH Travis Hafner, and CF Grady Sizemore).  In all actuality CLE might not make the playoffs this year--like I said the position players are relatively young and the pennant race may very well wear them down. However, in getting Jimenez (it appears that) the Indians have put themselves in position to compete in the AL Central for years to come.

[Exhibit A: Baseball Prospectus only gives the Indians a 7.6% chance of reaching they playoffs (see http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/)].

       Many have wondered why the Rockies traded Jimenez at all.  Like I mentioned earlier he comes at a reduced price through 2014.  There is no doubt that the Jimenez and the Rockies franchise both struggled to meet high expectations this year, as many considered the Rox to be NL West contendors and Jimenez to be a Cy Young candidate.  Letting go of Jimenez was even more interesting considering that this offseason the Rockies signed OF Carlos Gonzalez and SS Troy Tulowitzki to large multi-year contracts with the intent of building a franchise around these three.  However, the Rockies have struggled mightily in both the offensive and pitching departments and obviously felt that CLE's package of prospects was good enough to offset the loss of Ubaldo.  According to Baseball Prospectus' excellent Kevin Goldstein, RHP Alex White profiles as a third or fourth starter, but has been a harder prospect to evaluate because he features a rare FB, SPL, CH arsenal.  He also notes that White may be an option in the bullpen.  Regardless, White has already pitched in the bigs this year and he figures to slide somewhere into the Rockies staff right away.  Goldstein also profiles RHP Gardner as more of a pitch-to-contact sinker type of pitcher, but notes that he has struggled a bit this year in AA.  Similarly, Goldstein is a bit lukewarm on 1B McBride who is a converted catcher.  The PTBNL is LHP Drew Pomeranz, CLE's first round pick in 2010.  Pomeranz is a big lefty from Ole Miss that features a low-mid 90s fastball and a great curveball.  Goldstein pegs Pomeranz as a #3 type starter until he develops his changeup, but I see Pomeranz as a current #2 type with the outside possibility of a #1 down the road.  Pomeranz should be up in the big leagues by the end of 2012 if not sooner.

Rasmus heads north, Edwin Jackson changes ballcaps yet again
       Since my analysis of the last trade was a bit longer than I thought it would be, I will attempt to be more concise in my analysis of the 11-player 3-team deal that sent OF Colby Rasmus, LHPs Trever Miller and Brian Tallet, 3B Mark Teahen, and RHP PJ Walter to the Toronto Blue Jays.....Edwin Jackson, Cory Patterson, and RHP Octavio Dotel, LHP Marc Rzepczynski to the St. Louis Cardinals....and RHP Jason Frasor and RHP Zach Stewart to the Chicago White Sox.  In short, I like the deal for the Blue Jays.  I mean I really like the move by the Blue Jays. Saber-nerds and the blogosphere have been talking about TOR GM Alex Anthopoulous for months, especially his aggressive tactics in the draft and the international market, and this trade again has people praising A.A. In essence, the Blue Jays traded a veteran borderline OF (Patterson), an aging relatively mediocre right arm (Dotel), a quality, but soon to be 34-year old reliever (Frasor) and a pretty good 26 year old LHP in Rzepcyznski (has been good out of pen, could be mid-back of rotation type) for a potential star center fielder, two veteran LH relievers, and a throw in RHP.  
       Much has been said about Rasmus' attitude "problems" in STL and the fact that his numbers are down this year.  However, there isn't much debate about Rasmus' ceiling and potential as a star center fielder.  Even if Rasmus is unable to stay in CF, given that defensive metrics have rated Rasmus extremely poor the past few years, his potential power numbers would allow him to slide into a corner OF spot without losing too much value.  In Rasmus, Eric Thames, Travis Snider, and Jose Bautista (and Rajai Davis if they choose to keep him) the Toronto Blue Jays have a promising a versatile core of outfielders to build around.  Again, as much I as like the trade for TOR on paper and the aggressiveness of Anthopoulous, we still must wait to see how this plays out and avoid jumping to any conclusions days after the deal has commenced.   
       Even though I feel as if TOR got the better of the deal (potentially) I still respect what STL did, as they acquired Edwin Jackson (poor guy has been traded 5 times already and he's only 27), a SP who may never reach his ceiling of bonafide ace, but has quietly become more reliable and has developed into a solid #3 pitcher in the last few years.  Furthermore, Rz.... is another quality arm and will fill the void of Miller and Tallet. Dotel is a shell of his former self but still has some "veteran presence" and Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa always seem to make old guys work for a short period of time (Miguel Batista).

Bedard: Relevant?
         The Boston Red Sox were not able to acquire Ubaldo Jimenez (see above) but they did manage to secure some pitching depth by adding Erik Bedard from the Mariners in a 3-team deal.  Bedard has been extremely injury prone since his move to Seattle from Baltimore a few years ago but can still be a quality starter when healthy.  The lefty has a low-90s FB with a sharp breaking ball that is especially effective against lefties. In Bedard, the Red Sox are getting someone who has AL East experience.  They are undoubtedly hoping that Bedard will be able to slow down Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, and turn around switch hitters Mark Teixera and Nick Swisher.  
        Boston traded away OF Chih-Hsien Chiang (to SEA) and C Tim Federowicz, RHP Stephen Fife, and RHP Juan Rodriguez (all to LAD) to acquire Bedard.  Chiang played in the 2011 Futures Game a few weeks ago and has been hitting very well in the AA Eastern League for Portland. I don't know much about  Federowicz, Fife, and Rodriguez but knowledgeable Kevin Goldstein profiles all as fringe-type prospects, Fedro as backup catcher material, Rodriguez as a young power pitcher still years away, and Fife as a middle-reliever (via Baseball Prospectus).  
        After receiving these prospects the Dodgers proceeded to trade OF Trayvon Robinson to SEA to complete the 3-team trade.  Robinson has been mashing in AAA this year, is a switch hitter, with plus speed and projects as an everyday outfielder in the show.  All in all, SEA seems to have gotten a good pair of prospects for Bedard, while the Red Sox got what they needed (pitching depth) for a relatively low price, while the Dodgers traded away one of their better positional prospects for three lesser prospects.  
       
????
It is common for people in the media and semi-bloggers like myself to throw around labels such as "winners" and "losers", but we do so because it is easy.  In actuality trades and roster moves take weeks, months, and years to properly evaluate.  Why did STL trade Rasmus away? Perhaps the front office and advance scouts saw a pattern in his swing or his attitude.  Maybe they felt that they could slide Jon Jay over in from right to center and that he could handle the transition.  Maybe they have another player in the minors that will be ready next year.  There are so many variables that go into trades that it can be difficult to understand why certain moves are made.  Although the Dodgers traded away Trayvon Robinson and received three "marginal" prospects in return, how can I or anyone else adequately say that they are the "losers", at least right now? The answer is we can't, at least not yet.  Furthermore, how would one define a successful trade...if Mark Rzepczyski won Game 7 of the World Series this year for STL, but never contributed again while Colby Rasmus developed into a perrenial All-Star which team would be the "winner" or "loser"?   These kinds of questions always tend to arise around the trading deadline and are why its important not to jump to conclusions.