Revisiting the Draft Forecasts of WWBA, FLDCS Participants

It has been a while since my last rundown of amateur players, and I plan on continuing with the series, but since Baseball America recently released their HS Top 100 list ($ubscription only), I’d figure it’d be helpful to take a look back at some guys that I’ve already covered.

#11 Oscar Mercado: As I said in one of my first posts about the Florida Diamond Club Showcase, Mercado has been a known entity for quite some time—as he was a regular on the showcase circuit. However, he has obviously improved his stock quite a bit, as the quick twitch athleticism, fluid actions in the field, good bat speed, and plus instincts have enamored those within the industry. 

#17 Travis Demeritte: I was lucky enough to stumble upon Demeritte while in the back fields of the WWBA in Jupiter, and I was impressed with his arm strength and lateral movement/agility.  I was a bit concerned with his load/trigger phase as I felt that the hands were a bit noisy, but he generates easy plus bat speed and showed a patient, advanced approach during his at-bats.  I didn’t offer a draft projection in my original, brief analysis because I only saw Demeritte in passing, but others, like BP’s Jason Parks were very high on Demeritte’s skill set, so it is not too surprising to find the South Carolina commit listed so high in Baseball America’s Top 100.

#34 Jan Hernandez: As I mentioned in my last entry, much Hernandez’s value is dependent on his ability to stick at shortstop. Those within the industry are mixed, as Hernandez’s detractors are worried about how much bigger he will get over the next few years.  His frame (6-3, 195) and athleticism leave little to be desired, and I saw a nice, mechanically sound swing at the FLDCS with some power potential down the road. Feel free to draw some of your opinions by taking a look at this FREE video of Hernandez courtesy of Baseball Prospectus’ Nick Faleris.

#40 Tucker Neuhaus: I’ve written about Neuhaus extensively, both for Baseball America and out of personal interest, but I remained hesitant in offering a personal draft projection given my relative inexperience with amateur scouting, and the questions about his defensive profile.  BA’s HS Top 100 is based on talent alone (not signability, etc.), and I was a bit surprised to see Neuhaus up so high given the defensive question marks.  However, Neuhaus is a great, hard-working kid who features legitimate pull power and quality arm strength.  While I feel his body (6-3, 190) forces off 3B and into RF, the bat is a legitimate weapon, and it appears that scouts and those within the industry are confident enough in its ability to play up that it has lifted Neuhaus into the top half of the list.

#44 Josh Hart: As with Demerritte, I only got a chance to see Hart in passing while at the WWBA. As such, I didn’t have too much to say other than,

“Plus athlete with body for projection (6-3, 190). Good reads and quick breaks in the outfield—near diving play in shallow RCF. Premium projection and ceiling.”

Hart’s East Cobb team won the tournament, so scouts had a number of opportunities to see the center fielder in action, and it appears that they came away similarly impressed with the center fielder. I would personally be surprised to see the Georgia Tech commit ever set foot on campus, as I think Hart ends up receiving some big-time (over-slot) money to pry him away from his college commitment.

#52 Brian Navaretto: I wrote about Navaretto extensively in my post on Arlington Country Day’s contingent at the FLDCS. He clearly garnered the most attention of the group—and Nathan Rode suggested that the catching prospect projected to be a 2^nd -4^th round pick.  After a couple of weeks of calls/recon work with scouts it appears that Rode’s original suggestion was on point, as Navaretto checks in at #52 in BA’s HS Top 100 (perhaps 2^nd, likely 3^rd round pick depending on the number of college players selected). Just a quick rundown for those unwilling to read my original analysis: athletic frame, strong forearms/wrists, plus bat speed with leverage, swing got long at times, plays with energy and confidence, very strong arm (1.76-1.84 pop times).  Even though this year’s crop of amateur catching talent is particularly deep, I think that Navaretto climbs up draft boards with a strong spring campaign.

#69 Nick Longhi: Had a strong summer on showcase circuit and is a big dude with very real raw power. I wasn’t too sure about his draft prospects because the defensive profile limits him to LF or 1B, but his place in the BA Top 100 shows that some teams think that the LSU commit’s power potential is worth pursuing, regardless of any defensive limitations and swing mechanics that need ironing out.

#81 K.J. Woods: I didn’t have much to say about Woods—I only saw him in passing at the WWBA, but the 6-4, 210 pound OF/1B is a physical specimen. Ft. Mill, South Carolina native doesn’t have much projection remaining, but people are obviously drawn to the special combination of size/power potential and athleticism.

#96 Josh Greene: Like Neuhaus, another guy that I’ve written quite a bit about for both BA and personal interest. Unlike many to make the Top 100, Greene was not a big name coming into 2012. However, the Ocala native’s impressive skill set—plus(to plus-plus) speed, average arm strength, great instincts/reads—makes for a solid defensive center fielder.  The bat very much remains a question mark, but he features quick wrists and generates solid bat speed, and organizations are often willing to work with a youngster that provides solid defense at an up-the-middle position (regardless of the bat’s current grade).  With that being said, I was pleasantly surprised to find Greene within the Top 100, but his performance this summer/fall has clearly made believers out of more than just myself.

**Just missed Top 100: Christian Arroyo (gamer; absolutely love this kid despite the commitment to University of Florida) Brett Hanewich (Stanford commit, great athletic frame, two way threat—probably ends up as pitcher), Dane Dunning (also UF commit, serious room for projection), Sheldon Neuse (only saw a few innings for Texas Scout Yankees--liked lateral movements in field, approach at plate, instincts on basepaths)

Other Top 100 guys I’ve seen in person/Players to be covered in next post: #100 Edwin Diaz (PR), #75 Willie Abreu, #26 Chris Okey, #55 John Sternagel, #42 Zack Collins, NR Ronald Healy

FLDCS Observations: Railey, Greene, Hagenmiller, Hernandez

Last time I detailed the Arlington Country Day quartet of Brian Navaretto, Iramis Olivecia, Bernardo Bonifacio, and Blake Hennessey. Today I continue with some of my observations from the Florida Diamond Club Showcase.

2014 CF Matthew Railey, North Florida Christian HS, Tallahassee, FL: 6-0, 190, L/L, FSU commit.  Currently a junior, Railey more than held his own at the FLDCS with players one year his senior.  Although he came off the bench in both games and went 0-3, Railey worked two walks in game action, and showed out in batting practice.  Listed at 190 pounds, Railey is a fast-twitch, premium athlete.  While his frame may not ooze of projection as Josh Hart’s (previously covered) does, Railey has broad shoulders, a tapered waist and a well-proportioned, muscular physique.  Furthermore, the Tallahassee native has strong forearms and snappy wrists that allow the ball to jump off of his bat. Railey is able to generate plus bat speed with ease, but his swing has some serious length to it as he uses an extended load/trigger in which his hands drop significantly. While the (currently) lengthy swing will limit his ability to make consistent contact against top-notch pitching, Railey’s bat speed alone warrants potential plus-power. Turning in a 4.1 home-first split on a ground out to 2B, Railey is at least a plus-runner at present.  He flashed fringe-average arm strength in IF/OF, but the plus (to plus-plus) speed, range, and instincts should allow Railey to stick in CF.  At present, Railey is a bit raw and his lengthy swing can be exploited by quality pitching, but the tools (speed, power potential) and athleticism are evident. As a junior in high school, Railey still has nearly 18 months to grow as a ballplayer before the 2014 draft.  Although he is currently committed to play for the hometown Seminoles, I’d be surprised to see Railey wearing the Garnet and Gold at Mike Martin Field/Dick Howser Stadium, as a player with his defensive profile and tools/athleticism should be popped early in the draft.

2013 CF Josh Greene, Forest HS, Ocala, FL: 5-10, 165, L/L, High Point commit.

Despite being relatively unheralded before FLDCS, Greene dazzled on the final day of the showcase. Like Railey, Greene is at least a plus-runner at present, and he should be able to stick in CF.  Unlike Railey, however, Greene started in both of the North squad’s games.  In both contests he showed great instincts and reads off the bat.  His arm is nothing special—and though it was inconsistent at times he flashed average arm strength. At the plate, Greene has some length in swing but good bat speed and quick wrists.  He went 3-7 with a BB on the weekend, and was a nuisance on the basepaths.  While short and stout, with little room for further projection Greene provides some value defensively and showed that he could hit quality pitching.  While it is tough to gauge where he will end up in the draft, Greene certainly boosted his stock at the FLDCS.

2013 3B Ian Hagenmiller, Palm Beach Central, West Palm Beach, FL: 6-1, 210, R/R, uncommitted

Hagenmiller did not get much of a chance to shine in game action, as his team’s predominant 3B was Jan Hernandez (see below).  However, Hagenmiller showed extremely smooth actions in the field for a non-premium athlete. He has soft hands and flashed an extremely strong and consistent, accurate arm.  At the plate, Hagenmiller utilizes a toe-tap and a high hand set.  He showed the ability to backspin the ball and tap into some of his strength and raw power during batting practice, but he struggled to make contact in game action, striking out in 3 of his 4 at-bats. Probably destined for college ball or a late-round selection, Hagenmiller provides a solid blend of defensive chops at the hot corner and power potential (and a strong arm—90 mph off the mound).

2013 SS/3B Jan Hernandez, Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy, Caguas, PR: 6-2, 195, R/R, uncommitted

Here’s what fine folks over at Baseball Prospectus had to say while watching Hernandez play at the WWBA in Jupiter:

First Take: Long-limbed, athletic body reminds me of a young Alex Rodriguez frame in short look. Soft feet with plus arm, appears to have skills to remain at short. Highly touted infielder, looks the part, right handed bat.–Dan Evans

Second Take: Good frame; clean actions in the infield; footwork plays around the bag; left side arm; collegiate shortstop and has chance to stick at pro ranks if he doesn’t get too big; power potential; natural lift; delivers barrel well; average runner likely slows as body matures; game projects across the board.–Nick Faleris

And now for my humble take:

I didn’t get a chance to see Hernandez at WWBA, but he did stand out at the FLDCS.  He has a good, solid frame and natural athleticism.  Right now he is a solid-average runner, turning in a 6.8 60-yard dash time at the showcase. As such, in my opinion he probably profiles best as a 3B down the road, but his hands are great, actions extremely smooth, and arm strong and accurate, so an organization may allow Hernandez to play his way off SS.  At the plate, he has a good swing path, and he turned in two very solid BP rounds.  His swing is compact and he flashed gap power and an innate ability to square up balls—the power should play up and develop as the body matures. Obviously much of Hernandez’s value is dependent on his ability to stick at shortstop. If evaluators like Dan Evans think that he can stick there, he will most likely end up as a high draft pick come June, as his other tools are polished yet projectable.

FLDCS Observations: Arlington Country Day Edition

Last time I wrote about a number of players that stood outat the Florida Diamond Club Showcase, and today I will continue with my analysis with a brief rundown on a handful of players from Arlington Country Day. ACD is a high school that has long been associated with dominance in basketball and baseball, as Javier Baez (currently Chicago Cubs top prospect and 2011 1^st round pick) and a handful of other talents have provided the program with some serious buzz in the Southeast. Of the following four players, three call Puerto Rico their home (as did Baez), and some within the high school athletics industry have questioned the legitimacy of such schools and whether or not they should be able to allowed to compete for state championships. Indeed, ACD was fined by the Florida High School Athletic Association for recruitment violations and in 2010 the school announced its intention to withdraw from the organization. Regardless of one’s personal beliefs about the intersection of education and athletics in high school and the circumstances of ACD’s roster compilation, there is no doubt that Brian Navaretto, Iramis Olivecia, Bernardo Bonifcacio, and Blake Hennessey will make some serious noise (be it in the collegiate or professional ranks) over the next few years.

2013 C/1B/OF Brian Navaretto: 6-3, 220, R/R; currently uncommitted.

First here is what the fine folks over at Baseball Prospectus had to say about Navaretto in their rundown of a handful of players they say at the WWBA in Jupiter last weekend:

Outstanding catching prospect with impressive energy and tools. First guy out, first guy in dugout. Showed 60+ arm with accuracy and loved to use it. Great frame (6'3" 200 lbs). Quick bat. Aggressive with intangibles.–Dan Evans

And now for my humble synopsis:

Great frame, athletic and well-proportioned body. Large forearms, broad shoulders, tapered waist and well-developed lower-half; basically everything you look for physically in a prospect. He utilizes his strong forearms and wrists and upper-body strength to create easy plus bat speed and leverage.  At times, Navaretto’s swing showed some length as he appeared enamored with his power (wanted to put on a show in BP for scouts?). In game action Navarreto showed an innate ability to barrel balls and create loud contact, including a ground-rule double. Navaretto oozes confidence and plays with swagger.  He was not overwhelmed by the showcase and the attention it garnered—he thrives on the big stage and the competition.  Constantly upbeat, energetic, and plays with a smile. From what I can recall, nobody at the FLDCS tested his arm during the two games he played, but in IF/OF he showed off a very strong arm, turning in 1.76, 1.83, 1.84 pop times and athleticism/agility that should allow him a chance to stay behind the dish.  Unfortunately, I was too focused on catching a glimpse of everybody at the tournament, and fulfilling my duties for Baseball America that I was not able to get a good read on his receiving skills.  I had hoped to get another look at Navaretto at the WWBA, but I was only able to catch one of his team’s (East Cobb Baseball) games and he was sitting the bench (as he had caught earlier in the day).  From what I heard, scouts were impressed with Navaretto’s arm strength and athleticism but questions still remained about his catching future, although former Dodger’s GM Dan Evans seemed pretty convinced in the quote listed above.  If Navaretto is able to confirm that he has the potential to stick behind the plate, he has an outside shot of being a late first-round or supplemental first-round pick, but organizations are generally hesitant to select high-school catchers unless they are sure they can handle the defensive responsibilities. As such, Navaretto currently projects to be a second to fourth round selection (according to former colleague and all-around good dude Nathan Rode, whom you can follow on Twitter @BAHighSchool).

2013 OF Iramis Olivecia: 5-9, 170, R/R; currently uncommitted. Although all players who participated in the FLDCS were invited by various area scouts, Olivecia was relatively unknown to many scouts in attendance.  Nonetheless, Olivecia performed well enough to make sure those covering Northern Florida pay attention this spring.  Olivecia features a small, compact frame, as he listed at 5-9, 170.  A classic quick-twitch athlete, Olivecia’s performance in IF/OF and game action highlighted his athleticism and loose movements. At the plate,  he was balanced throughout time in batter’s box and consistently turned in solid, if not spectacular rounds of BP.  He immdediately turned heads in game action, however, as the Puerto Rican native bit a two-run HR to left center field off RHP Nick Eicholtz in his first AB of the weekend.  Although he didn’t record another hit in that game, he did sting a single in his second game and showed an ability to work the count.  Overall, the bat looks promising and the approach generally sound—although it was still tough to get a solid read as he went up against a relatively mediocre group of pitchers in the second game. In the field, Olivecia played predominately in the corner outfield positions, as CF was ceded to either Josh Greene or Matthew Railey (observations forthcoming), and I cannot rememeber his arm being tested in game action.  However, in IF/OF, Olivecia flashed solid-average arm strength although his consistency and mechanics were quite inconsistent. Overall, Olivecia is an intriguing prospect—despite his small stature he showed some in-game pop and a balanced approach in the batter’s box. While his movements and actions were athletic and loose, Olivecia remains a bit raw and he turned in a disappointing 4.5 home-first split on a ground ball to second base (although he did slow down towards the end).  I’m not sure where he ends up come next summer, but I think he definitely opened a few eyes at the FLDCS.

2013 INF Blake Hennessey: 6-1, 175, R/R, Oklahoma State commit. Hennessey was listed as a middle infielder on the roster, but he played the majority of the weekend at the hot corner.  Regardless, the ACD product features a projectable and athletic frame.  He flashed a strong, accurate arm that should allow him to stay on the left side of the diamond if he is forced to move off shortstop down the road.  He made some solid defensive plays in game action, specifically on relay throws from the outfield—he gunned down a couple of runners trying to take an extra base on balls hit into the gaps.  At the plate, Hennessey generates some solid power and leverage, but he had a tendency to get sloppy with hands as he dropped them during his trigger/load phase.  As such, his swing got long and loopy, he struggled to maintain a consistent swing path, and he had some contact issues (3K during the weekend).  However, when his hands were correct, Hennessey was able to make some solid contact and hit with authority. Since Hennessey’s time at SS was limited throughout the weekend, it would be foolish to discuss his defensive capabilities at length, but the fact that he was not given the opportunity to start may indicate that scouts prefer him at 3B.  At present, Hennessey probably does not have the power of an ideal third baseman, but he has the frame to carry more mass, so teams may be willing to take him later in the draft and try to pry him away from his OK State commitment.

2013 OF Bernardo Bonifacio : 5-9, 200, R/R, Bethune Cookman commit. Bonifcacio, the final member of ACD’s Puerto Rican triumvirate was listed as a CF on the roster, but the thickly built outfielder spent all weekend in either corner.  Bonifacio is probably maxed out physically, but despite his thick build the youngster is still a plus-runner, turning in a  4.2 from the RH side.  Like Olivecia, I cannot remember Bonifacio’s arm being tested in game action, but in IF/OF he flashed solid-average to plus arm strength with some consistency issues in his mechanics, rhythm, and accuracy. At the plate, Bonifacio’s had a few issues as his hands and hips were not always working together. As a result he frequently hit with only his upper body. Regardless, his swing path was relatively sound and consistent and his raw strength impressive enough to suffice at the amateur level.  As he climbs the ladder Bonifacio will have to adjust and clean up his hands/hips in order to thrive and hit consistently, but the tools are in place.  His ceiling is not nearly as high as Navaretto’s, and he will most likely lose a step or two as he gets older, but Bonifacio boasts a plus arm, good athleticism, and juice in the bat, so he is an intriguing prospect nonetheless.

I’m excited to have stumbled upon these amateur talents and I’m looking forward to seeing them play for ACD this spring.

Next up I’ll be focusing on a handful of players, including a few from from Tallahassee’s North Florida Christian (like 2014 stud Matthew Railey).

Florida Diamond Club Showcase Observations

As I mentioned briefly yesterday, I still have a ton of raw scouting notes on a handful of players that participated in the WWBA this past weekend and the Florida Diamond Club Showcase two weekends ago.  Yesterday I touched upon a few players that I only got to see for a couple of plate appearances, innings, hours, etc., but today I will focus on some guys that I was able to see over the course of an entire weekend’s worth of games, batting practices, and infield/outfield routines at the Florida Diamond Club Showcase.  

2013 SS Oscar Mercado: 6-1, 177, R/R, Florida State commit. Those within the industry have known about Mercado for a while now, as he has been a regular on the showcase scene. Baseball Prospectus’ Nick Faleris provided an analysis on him here. From what I saw at the showcase, Mercado is a great athlete and possesses the necessary quick-twitch athletisicm that is necessary for a major-league middle infielder. He has fluid movements, nimble footwork, a quick transfer, and a solid arm--all of which indicate that he should be able to stick at shortstop at the highest level. On the second day of the showcase he did play CF and actually looked very natural there, despite not playing there much at all over the past few years. If for some reason things do not work out for Mercado at SS, he has the athleticism, instincts, speed, quickness, and arm to transition to CF. At the plate he was a bit inconsistent, and I felt that like he’s late with his trigger and load at times.  Regardless, he features very good bat speed and quick wrists that allow the hit tool to play up (at present).  I didn’t get any run times on Mercado, as he spent so much time barreling balls into the outfield and working walks, but he was a nuisance on the basepaths, swiping three bases over the course of the weekend. SYNOPSIS—Mercado showed out at the FLDCS and is a legitimate athlete at a premium defensive position; I’d be extremely surprised if he was not drafted in the first round of the draft

2013 3B/OF Tucker Neuhaus: 6-3, 190, L/R, Louisville commit. Neuhaus plays shortstop for his high school team and is committed to Louisville in part because of the coaching staff’s willingness to let him play short for the Cardinals. During the showcase weekend he played at third base and right field, both of which fit his profile better. He has a long frame with more room to add mass in both his upper and lower halves. He is pretty athletic, but he does not profile as a shortstop at the next level. He looked decent at third base, showing off some soft hands and plus arm strength, but he had some accuracy issues as his throws tended to sail on him. I personally like him better as a RF, especially as he continues to mature and add mass over the next few years.  He put on a show in batting practice on the first day, and it continued into game action, as he belted out a homerun off a lefthanded pitcher. There is some length in his swing but throughout the weekend he showcased some true pull power. During the second game, Neuhaus swung a bit “uphill” at times and displayed that his long swing could get him into trouble at times. Overall, Neuhaus presented an intriguing combination of plus power potential and plus arm strength. I’m not entirely sure of his draft prospects given his defensive profile, but  I liked the overall package.

2013 1B/OF Nick Longhi: 6-2, 212, R/R, LSU commit. Longhi made some noise this summer at the Area Code Games in California, and he had a solid weekend in Lakeland for the FLDCS. He has a muscle bound body with a thick lower half. Combine that with a below-average arm, and I feel that his future probably lies at first base rather than the outfield (although he is a solid athlete for such a big guy). Longhi has a high hand set in the batter’s box, and he lowers his hands during the pitcher’s delivery, which makes for a lot of pre-swing movement. The slight hitch and hole in his swing makes for some swing and miss, but did not present too much of an obstacle over the weekend, as he generates good bat speed and easy plus power with plus-plus potential. At times he can hit entirely with his upper body as he tends to “spin”, but his enormous strength allows the power and bat to play at present. Down the road, he will have to make some slight adjustments, but the bat has some serious juice. Again, I’m not too sure on his draft prospects—the defensive profile may scare off some teams—but the power is real, so even if he ends up in Baton Rouge, he remains a college bat to keep an eye on over the next few years.

2013 RHP/INF Brett Hanewich: 6-3, 208, S/R, Stanford commit. I don’t think he even played in the field during game-action at the FLDCS, but if he did I missed it. I wasn’t too enthralled with his showing during the two BP rounds, as he had a tendency to jump at the ball and hit front-footed. His body is impressive and imposing for an 18-year-old, as he is chiseled with broad shoulders.  His fastball sat between 86-91 during his two innings in Lakeland, but he showed out more in Jupiter, when he sat between 89-93 with a hammer curve between 73-75.  The pitch got a little loose at times, but it had a good shape and flashed plus. His delivery was pretty clean overall, although one could nitpick and say that it was a bit too mechanical/rigid and limited his momentum towards the plate.

2013 C/3B Adrian Chacon: 6-1, 195, R/R, UNC commit. Chacon saw limited time in the field for the West squad at the FLDCS, but he was impressive during BP and I had the chance to see him briefly at the WWBA in Jupiter. Chacon is solidly built with a muscular physique. I felt that he profiled better as a catcher (although I did not get much of chance to see him behind the plate), so he will probably be able to add on mass without sacrificing much defensively behind the dish. At the WWBA he threw out a runner trying to steal second base and clocked in a 1.89 pop time. It was difficult to get a read on his receiving skills, but I was very high on his ability in the batter’s box. At times he hit too much off his front-foot and his hands got a little noisy and drifty, but overall Chacon was solid. He did a fine job of throwing his top hand through the zone and creating a nice, fluid, direct path to the ball.  He also showed the ability to backspin the ball and consistently square up pitches. It is always hard to evaluate how high school catchers will be able to handle the responsibilities of catching professionally, so my gut instinct is that Chacon ends up in Chapel Hill, but scouts that are more familiar with Chacon may feel that he has “it” so I would also not be surprised to see him popped in an early-mid round rang of the 2013 draft.

2013 RHP Spencer Trayner: 6-0, 160, R/R. UNC commit. Chacon’s high school teammate, Trayner is also a Tar Heel commit that performed well at the FLDCS and the WWBA. While he doesn’t possess the traditional pitcher’s frame, Trayner was able to flash solid-average to plus velocity at both events, sitting 90-92 in Lakeland and 91-93 in Jupiter. Trayner normally throws from the traditional high ¾ arm slot, but on occasion he would drop down El Duque style and deliver a sidearm 87-88 mph fastball.  Although he threw it sparingly, Trayner also flashed a late-breaking 80 mph slider with good two-plane depth. 

2013 RHP Dane Dunning: 6-3, 190, R/R. Florida commit. Dunning features a long, lithe frame with room for future projection.  He has an easy and seemingly clean delivery, and he appears to stay over himself well.  Throwing from the common high ¾ arm slot, Dunning has a solid release distance and stride length, which helps his 86-91 mph FB play up a bit. The pitch appears to have some real life and jump in on righthanded hitters. His secondary pitches, a 73-80 mph CRV and 80 mph CH, were used sparingly so it was hard to get a true gauge on the quality, although the curveball had good shape. Florida’s 2012 recruiting class was decimated due to a plethora of high MLB draft choices, and 2013 may be no different.  Dunning offers some serious projection and it will be interesting to see how high his draft stock may rise this spring.

2013 MIF Christian Arroyo: 6-0, 180, R/R. Florida commit. Arroyo starred for USA Baseball’s 18U team that won the Gold medal at the World Championships is South Korea this summer. I had the chance to interview Arroyo twice this summer and he is an outstanding young man and was by far the best interview I conducted while interning for Baseball America. On the field, Arroyo typically fits the “gamer” profile as he does not have one loud or exceptional tool. However, he is an extremely instinctual player. He features only average speed presently, and given his thicker lower half, he projects best as a second baseman professionally. His arm strength may also be average at best, but his transfer and release are extremely quick.  At the plate Arroyo utilizes a short, compact swing. He was able to consistently control the bat and square up pitches to make solid contact.  Furthermore, Arroyo has an advanced approach at the plate and a good feel for hitting in general—he was able to work the count, use the entire field, and borderline pitches throughout the FLDCS weekend and the WWBA tournament in Jupiter. High school “gamers” are not often selected early in the draft, as pure athletes who feature more projection than the polished yet understated Arroyo, so it is more likely that we see him donning the Orange and Blue in 2013.

More to come in the following days, including observations on Brian Navaretto, Bernardo Bonifacio, Matthew Railey, Iramis Olivecia, Shaun Anderson, Ian Hagenmiller, etc. 

Some Thoughts & Observations from WWBA

This past weekend I was able to attend the World Wood Bat Association Championship, a tournament showcasing the largest(?) collection of domestic, amateur baseball talent, in Jupiter, Florida. The previous weekend I was fortunate enough to cover the Florida Diamond Club Showcase in Lakeland, Florida for Baseball America. My recaps for the three days of action at the Diamond Club Showcase can be found here, here, and here (all FREE). The Florida Diamond Club Showcase was a tremendous experience and I was able to jot down some raw scouting notes on dozens of top prospects from the state and talk to a handful of scouts and players (much of which I will be disclosing on the blog in the future). 

Needless to say, after seeing a number of high profile amateurs such as Oscar Mercado and Brian Navaretto, I thought that my experience in Lakeland would prepare for me for the WWBA weekend in Jupiter. 

I was wrong.  Much of my confusion was due to the fact that I arrived midday and mid-tournament.  The tournament was slated to begin on Thursday—but weather only allowed one game to be completed. Friday was also dicey, as the weather forecast steady rain, much of which was nonexistent.  Regardless, because of the forecast I did not travel the nearly five hours down to Jupiter until Saturday, at which point I arrived at around 1 or 1:30.  After paying the entrance fee and obtaining a program I wandered over to the nearest (and most visible) field—Roger Dean Stadium—spring training home for the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins.  Unfortunately, I had no idea who was playing—they don’t operate scoreboards, have announcers, etc. and the tournament schedule had been completely changed because of the weather.

Eventually, I was able to determine that I was watching the Texas Scout Team Yankees, one of the traditional powerhouses at the WWBA, and Farrah Scout, a team primarily composed of players from New Jersey and New York. Although it is difficult for a Jersey boy like myself to admit---the Northeasterners were completely outclassed. I could withstand the beatdown for a couple of innings before I walked around the complex.  Luckily, I was able to jot down a few notes on players from the Texas Scout squad that were particularly interesting in the hour or so that I got to see.

2013 SS Brett Boswell: L/R, 6-0, 170, Texas commit; loose athlete with rhythm at the plate, plays with swagger, quick wrists and ability to barrel the ball with a quality, compact swing path

2013 SS/2B/RHP Sheldon Neuse: R/R, 6-0, 180, Oklahoma commit; was playing 2B—showed athleticism, moved well laterally with clean actions. Worked opposite field while at the plate—barreled a ball over the RF head for a double, did a good job staying closed and working backside. Solid runner, instincts on basepaths.

2013 IF/RHP Garrett Luna: R/R, 6-1, 200. Corner profile—not a premium athlete and “goofy” actions while running. Saw the bell well at the plate—good feel for hitting and advanced approach

2013 LHP Tyler Alexander: 6-2, 175, TCU commit. Athletic, projectable frame. Showed a clean delivery. Stays over top of himself and repeated delivery well from both windup and stretch. Solid command of FB down in zone. Slightly slower arm speed and lower release point/slot on CH. Plus potential on breaking ball/slider with late tilt and depth.

Despite being pounded and outdone on all fronts, one player from the Farrah Scout squad did stand out as a sleeper type.

2013 RHP Shawn Kanwisher: 6-2, 190. Athletic, lithe frame that should be able to handle more mass, and hopefully velo down the road. Sink and armside run on FB—solid action on the pitch. Little command of the pitch as he began tired. Not a premium prospect or “guy” per se, but he is a high school teammate of one of the top prep arms in the upcoming 2013 draft, LHP Rob Kaminsky. As such, Kanwisher may benefit from the extra attention that Kaminsky will garner this spring.

Later I wandered around the back fields of the complex, wading through throngs of parents, college recruiting coordinators, scouts, crosscheckers, and kiosk vendors selling shirts, bats, gloves, hats, etc. to find a few other games going on. In many ways it was a sensory overload, and I wasn’t able to take quality notes until later in the night when I had settled in.  While I was trying to keep my eyes on two fields at once, a handful of young athletes stood out.

2013 OF/1B KJ Woods (Royals Scout Team): Ft Mill HS, South Carolina. L/R. 6-4, 208. Only saw one AB—he struck out but it was a quality AB—worked the count, fouled off at least four pitches, caught out a bit out in front a few times. Large, mature body, but he is an athlete. Played in RF and did a good job of turning and running on a ball hit over his head. Gunned down a runner trying to stretch hit into a triple with solid throw to cutoff man (solid avg. to plus arm). Would’ve loved to see more in game action.

2014 SS Maurice Cooley (Royals Scout Team): Fleming Island HS, Orange Park, FL. R/R. 6-0, 180. Very athletic body and strong, solid frame. Didn’t get a run time on him, but am quite sure he is at least a plus runner. Good range in field. Juice in the bat—flashed oppo power, flying out to RF, warning track. Am looking forward to catching him play this spring, as he is in the Jacksonville area.

2013 CF Josh Hart (East Cobb Baseball): Parkview HS, Georgia. L/L, 6-3, 190, Georgia Tech commit. Plus athlete with body for projection. Good reads and quick breaks in the outfield—near diving play in shallow RCF. Premium projection and ceiling.

2013 3B/RHP Travis DeMerritte (East Cobb Baseball): R/R. 6-1, 185, South Carolina commit. Solid body and frame. Athletic in field, moved well laterally at hot corner and showed solid instincts. Plus arm in the field (didn’t see him pitch). At the plate he has noisy hands and an extended load/trigger phase but he generates plus bat speed. Patient, advanced approach—didn’t chase at all or expand zone.

2014 RHP Cobi Johnson (Cardinals Scout Team): James W. Mitchell HS, Florida. R/R, 6-4, 175. Body has real room for projection down the road. Arm action is clean and delivery looks nice, easy, with limited effort. He does throw slightly across body as his foot strike is on third base side and he closes himself off a bit. 89-91 mph FB with late life down in zone. 80 mph CH. 76-77 CRV with good shape.

Finally, in the nightcap I was fortunate enough to see a premium prep arm in action. Jordan Sheffield, a 2013 6-1, 180 pound righthander out of Tullahoma, Tennessee came out of the bullpen to relieve his younger brother, 2014 lefthander Justus Sheffield. While the younger Sheffield was solid in his own right, sitting 87-91, the eldest stole the show.  Jordan’s delivery was a bit smoother and more athletic, and he was able to consistently fire off 95 and 96 mph fastballs, hitting 98 once.  For more on the Sheffield Bros check out Nathan Rode’s recap at BA here and here.

Rode (@BAHighSchool) and Conor Glassey (@conorglassey) were at the showcase all week, so for more information I would highly recommend the BA blogs. Baseball Prospectus also had a significant contingent in Jupiter so I’m sure they will have some more quality analysis on the WWBA forthcoming.

I still have a significant amount of raw notes left over from the Florida Diamond Club Showcase and the WWBA, so I will provide some more information about players that stood out over the next few days (provided I feel motivated). 

Brenden Webb, OF, Orioles

Player: Brenden Webb 

Position: OF

Bats/Throws: Left/Left

Hometown/School: San Diego, CA/Palomar Junior College (Calif.)

Height/Weight: 6-3/190

Drafted: 30^th round and 896^th overall by the Baltimore Orioles in 2009

Background/Stats: Webb was undrafted coming out of high school so he stayed close to home, attending Palomar Junior College in San Diego County. His freshman season at Palomar was impressive enough to earn him a spot at the University of Southern California, but the Orioles nabbed him in the 30^th round of the 2009 draft and offered him a well-above slot bonus of $250,000.  Webb signed close to the deadline in 2009 and only got 43 at-bats for the Orioles Gulf Coast League affiliate. In 2010, as a 20-year-old Webb hit .244/.348/.412 in the Appalachian League. Webb began the following season in Low-A Delmarva, where he struggled. He hit just .218/.344/.288 in his first taste of the South Atlantic League. Given his struggles with Low-A pitching, the Orioles assigned Webb to the Delmarva roster again in 2012. The 22-year-old spent the vast majority of the season in the Sally League, hitting .251/.422/.457, before a late-season promotion to High-A Frederick in mid-August. Webb hit .270/.382/.500 in just 74-at bats with the Keys.

Firsthand Observations: I saw Webb play in Hickory, North Carolina against the Texas Rangers Low-A affiliate Hickory Crawdads on July 7^th.  I had no prior knowledge of Webb and made the trip out to Hickory to watch a number of other guys, specifically Rougned Odor, Jorge Alfaro, Luis Sardinas of Hickory and Nicky Delmonico, Jason Esposito, and Parker Bridwell of Delmarva.  However, Webb immediately caught my eye pre-game. Simply put, Webb looked good in the uniform. No, we’re not selling jeans here, but listed at 6-3, 190 pounds, Webb has the tall, loose, and muscular frame that you tend to see at the highest level of professional baseball.  Although it would be foolish to read too much into pre-game calisthenics and warm-ups, Webb’s movements were smooth and he appeared to be the most athletic player on the Delmarva roster. His arm appeared strong and his arm action mechanically sound, although I did not get to see him air it out in game action.  Webb played RF in the game, as he did for the overwhelming majority of the season, and showed some defensive chops and solid instincts when he quickly and correctly read the ball off of the bat and flashed impressive closing speed to nab a bleeder of the bat of a right-handed hitter near the RF line.

At the plate, Webb did a good job of staying balanced and tracking pitches. Utilizing a slightly open stance, Webb stayed balanced throughout his load and weight transfer. In his first two plate appearances Webb faced Hickory starter, LHP Kevin Matthews. He did a fine job of tracking sliders and some close fastballs below the knees to work a walk in the first inning. In the second, Webb struck out on three pitches (took a CRV, fouled off a FB, and swung through a nice CRV), as Matthews had settled in during the third frame. In the fifth, against reliever Arlett Mavare, Webb grounded out to third base on a low and away CH and turned in a well-below average 4.5 home-to-first split, although he got a late start out of the box and did not appear to be running full speed. Webb flew out to CF in the eighth and worked a walk in the ninth. All in all, the results were nothing to truly write home about, put I was relatively encouraged by Webb’s set up, quiet hands, and ability to track pitches.

Going Forward: Webb’s 2012 season was a solid albeit unspectacular campaign.  When looking at Webb’s career statistics, it is evident that the young man has a propensity to strike out (with a career K rate of 28.4%).  However, Webb has also clearly improved his plate discipline, as the 22-year-old drew a career high 98 walks and raised his OBP nearly 80 points in the process. Furthermore, Webb began to tap into some of his power potential, hitting a career-high 14 homeruns. Overall, I was pretty happy to stumble upon Webb, and surprised to learn that he was a 30^th round selection, given his impressive size and athleticism. In that same vein, I completely understood why Baltimore was willing to go way above slot to get the young man to sign.  His absolute ceiling actually appeared higher to me than that of his more high-profile teammates (Nicky Delmonico, Jason Esposito).  With that being said, like so many other young, athletic corner outfielders, Webb’s ability to hit will determine how far he progresses. Webb will be 23 years old come Opening Day, and I would expect him to start off 2013 in High-A Frederick in what figures to be an extremely important year in his 

developmental process. 

Ceiling: Solid-Average RF

Feasibly: 4^th OF

Floor: Double-A

Portrait: Robert Benincasa

Player:  Robert Benincasa

Position: RP

Throws: Right

Hometown/HS: Tampa, FL/Armwood HS

Height/Weight: 6-2, 195

Drafted: 7th round and 234^th overall pick of the Washington Nationals (2012)

Background/Stats: Benincasa was drafted in the 33^rd round (and the 1000^th overall pick) of the 2009 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. He earned first team All-State honors during his time at Armwood High School in Tampa, and elected to attend Florida State University rather than sign with Toronto.  As a freshman, in 2010 Benincasa was shuttled between the bullpen and starting rotation, making a few starts mid-week for the Seminoles. In 2011 longtime FSU manager showed a bit more confidence in Benincasa, utilizing the righthander in mid-relief and setup situations. Benincasa went 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA and 24 K in 32.2 IP over 20 appearances.  Benincasa’s 2012 was by far his most successful season, as he truly came into his own as the Seminoles closer. He went 4-2, 1.32 ERA with 16 saves and racked up 58 strikeouts (to only 7 walks) in 41 innings and helped Florida State advance to the College World Series. The Washington Nationals selected Benincasa with the 234^th overall pick, and according to Baseball America he signed for $145,000.

Firsthand Observations: Even as a longtime Seminole fan, I knew very little about Benincasa before the 2012 season.  I had seen him pitch in a few games on television with mixed results, but those that I talked to were pretty high on his potential and arsenal.  Fortunately, I was able to see Benincasa pitch many times over the course of the spring and summer.  Listed at 6-2, 195, Benincasa has a nice tall frame and thick legs. Unlike many relievers, Benincasa works from a full windup when runners are not on base, and his movements in the windup are clean, balanced, and athletic. He does a fine job of staying overtop of his body throughout his delivery and features solid posture, but his release point and arm angles can be a bit inconsistent, particularly with offspeed pitches. However, since Benincasa will almost certainly be used exclusively as a reliever “tipping” his pitches should not be too much of an issue, as the release point inconsistency is relatively miniscule.  Benincasa offers a true three-piece mix, as his fastball typically works between 90 and 93 miles per hour. The pitch features some late arm-side run, and Benincasa showed solid command, particularly glove-side.  His primary offspeed pitch of choice is his slider, a sharp 78-82 mph offering that has late two-plane depth. Benincasa proved to be particularly adroit at commanding the slider throughout FSU’s 2012 season, and it appears as if he was able to continue the trend with the Auburn Doubledays of the NYPL, as the righthander only surrendered 3 walks in his 23.1 summer innings.  Finally, Benincasa also showed a decent feel for a low 80’s changeup, but he rarely needed to utilize the pitch at the collegiate level.

Going Forward: After dominating in 23.1 innings in the short-season NYPL (2-0, 3.09 ERA, 32 K, 27 H, 3 BB) like a college arm should, I would expect Benincasa to break 2013 with Hagerstown, Washington’s Low-A club, but I also would not be surprised to see him start the year with their High-A club in Potomac. The entire package is nothing too sexy—the fastball is solid-average, the slider a solid pitch and I could argue for a plus grade, while the changeup is currently fringe-average with room for further development.  He probably will not end up being an impact arm at the MLB level, but I would be surprised if, health permitting, Benincasa is not a setup man or middle reliever in the big leagues.

Etc.: See this excellent YouTube video by Jeff Reese/Bullpen Banter in order to form your own opinions.

Portrait: Phillies 3B Maikel Franco

Player: Maikel Franco

Position: 3B

Listed Height/Weight: 6-1, 180

Bats/Throws: R/R

Hometown: Azua, Dominican Republic

Acquired: Signed by the Phillies on January 13, 2010

Background/Stats: Lauded for his power potential, Franco garnered a $100,000 signing bonus from the Philadelphia Phillies in January 2010.  According to Baseball America, many teams were scared away after Franco turned in an abhorrent 7.7 second 60-yard dash time, but well-respected international supervisor Sal Agostinelli saw past the poor foot speed and believed in Franco’s other tools and potential. In 2010, Franco reported to the Phillies’ Gulf Coast League team in Clearwater and hit .222/.292/.330 in 194 at-bats as a 17-year-old.  In 2011, the Phillies sent Franco to Williamsport, their short-season affiliate in the New York-Penn League before a brief stint with their full-season affiliate in the South Atlantic League, the Lakewood Blue Claws. Franco only managed a meager .123/149/.200 in just 65 at-bats with Lakewood, and he was reassigned to Williamsport, where he finished the 2011 season.  While Franco’s struggles in Low-A were to be expected given his youth and inexperience (only 18 at the time), the results at Williamsport painted a much prettier portrait of the player. Franco hit .287/.367/.411 in 202 at-bats for the club. In 2012, Franco broke the spring with the Lakewood Blue Claws, as the Phillies felt that he would be able to handle the transition to full-season ball in the South Atlantic League.  Statistically speaking Franco’s 2012 was a tremendous success. He spent the majority of the season as a 19-year-old in a league in which the average (median) age is 22 and hit .280/.336/.439 and began to tap into some of his power with 32 2B and 14 HR.  However, it was truly a tale of two halves, as Franco hit .207/.269/.338 before the Sally All-Star Break and a whopping .346/.395/.530 after the break.

Clearly, Franco had a breakthrough second-half and his late season surge will probably allow the Phillies to start him in High-A next season.  With that being said, I was able to see Franco in game action during my time in North Carolina and the youngster clearly still has issues that need addressing.

Firsthand Observations: I had the opportunity to see Franco and the Lakewood Blue Claws play a doubleheader against the Hickory Crawdads while on assignment for my internship with Baseball America. As I mentioned above, Franco really came into his own during the second half of the season, and given the fact that I watched Franco play on July 22^nd (post All-Star break), one would expect Franco to have put on a show. I mean he finished the month with a .327/.389/.496 line.  However, my fellow intern and I both came away from the two games unimpressed with Franco.  Obviously, it would be foolish to draw too much from one day’s worth of game action, but there were some red flags.

First, was the body. Now, Franco is not a “bad-body” type of player, but he looked heavier than his listed 180 pounds (I’d say about 190-195) with some baby fat.  His 6-foot-1 frame leaves little room for further projection.  He also looked a bit sloppy in the field with his actions, struggling to field balls cleanly and explode into a good throwing position.  All in all, he looked very sluggish and disinterested in the field.  One positive, however, is his arm strength which would easily grade out at plus (60) and perhaps plus-plus (70).

As I mentioned in the background section, Franco is clearly not a threat on the basepaths.  Unfortunately, I either did not either clock his home-first splits or forgot to record them, as I don’t have anything on his foot-speed in my notes.  Regardless, one should safely be able to assume that his speed is below-average at best.

Third basemen and any corner position player make their living with the lumber. Franco’s strong showing in 2012 as a 19-year-old should not be discredited. Obviously he was able to adjust to the environment and level of pitching in the second half to put up some solid numbers.  However, in the two games that I saw him, Franco went 1-for-6 with 2 K, and I can’t remember him barreling a ball.  While the results weren’t particularly impressive, I was also not a fan of the process.  I felt that Franco started with his hands to close to his head and body.  As the pitcher got into his windup and prepared to release the ball, Franco began a lengthy load process in which his hands went down, up, and down again.  All of this movement and noise led to an extremely lengthy swing. One could see the potential for outlandish power if solid contact were made, but the elongated swing path really seemed to hinder any chance for barreling half-way decent pitches.  Over the course of the double header Franco was caught out front-footed numerous times and he did not show the ability to adequately diagnose breaking pitches out of the hand.

Far too many times I feel that people try to isolate a flaw within the hitting process. It is easy and convenient to say that X causes Y, and I am tempted to trace Franco’s problems with his setup and noisy trigger.  However, it should be remembered that I only saw Franco in six at-bats.  Perhaps he was just feeling the grind from playing every day in his first full season and was lackadaisical with his attention to detail.  Maybe he was not prepared to play because of the weather forecast (was supposed to rain yet again) or was not particularly thrilled of the idea of playing a double header in 95 degree heat. 

Going Forward: Franco will most likely begin the 2013 season in the Florida State League, where I hope to be able see him again.  The power potential is impressive, but I’m not sure how much it will play at the next level given his current propensity to get pull-happy, front-footed, and be lengthy in his swing. If there is one thing that did surprise me in going back to do research for this portrait, it is that Franco only struck out in 14.4% of his plate appearances. Given what I saw I was expecting it to be much higher.  With that being said, while the results/statistics from his 2012 campaign are encouraging, I personally would not be willing to bet on a lengthy MLB career (feel free to bash me in the comments). However, since he is so young, many of his issues and flaws can still be addressed over the coming two or three years, and it will be interesting to see how Franco adjusts to quality breaking balls.

I'm Back?!?!

Hello? It has been two and a half months since my last post and I don’t have much of an excuse for my lack of updates/profiles. While I was interning at Baseball America I had the opportunity to see many minor league games in the Durham/Raleigh/Burlington area. I had meant to keep writing and updating the blog during my free time, but too often I would come home from a game or the Baseball America offices and just veg out and watch Netflix (Tim Riggins is my hero). 

Luckily, I kept notes upon notes upon notes on players that I saw, and I promised myself that I would begin writing down my observations when I had time. Now, after a week of “acclimating myself” back home, and fully removed from my internship with BA, I’m up to the task.  Hopefully, given my newfound abundance of leisure time, I will be posting something every (week)day for the foreseeable future.

Today, instead of starting out with a player that I saw over the summer, I will offer up a portrait of somebody I this past spring in Tallahassee—former Florida State and current Tigers 2B Devon Travis.  As a lifelong Seminole fan, even as a young pup growing up in New Jersey, I had been able to catch a few FSU games on ESPNU and in the CWS the past few years, and I liked what I saw from Travis.  But having seen him firsthand circa 20 times this spring, I really fell in love with his game (even though I tend to wax poetic about little second basemen).

Player: Devon Travis

Position: 2B

Bats/Throws: R/R

Hometown/HS: Wellington , Florida/Palm Beach Central HS

Drafted: 13^th round and 424^th overall pick by the Detroit Tigers

Background/Stats: Undrafted out of high school, Travis earned first-team all-state honors as a senior at Palm Beach Central High School, but profiled best as a college player given his relative lack of loud tools. Upon enrolling in Florida State, Travis quickly established himself and started 46 games as a true freshman in 2010. He hit .276/.331/.436 and was 5-6 in SB attempts in his first collegiate action. As a sophomore in 2011, with the new BBCOR bats that limited offensive production nationwide, Travis improved his line to .329/.455/.519 and was 5-10 in SB attempts.

Firsthand Observations: Upon first glance Travis does not stand out. Listed a 5’9 and 183 pounds, Travis has thick legs, a squat frame, and is clearly maxed out physically with no room for projection.  Additionally, after a couple of solid collegiate seasons in 2010 and 2011, Travis underwent knee surgery so going into 2012 there were significant questions about his speed and lateral quickness. 

However, throughout the 2012 season, Travis erased any of my personal doubts, and did much to bolster Coach Mike Martin’s effusive praise about his speedy recovery and commitment to rehab/offseason workouts.  He flashed tremendous lateral movement, especially to his left and had the knack for making the sensational play.  Additionally, while countless other collegiate and young amateur players may make the spectacular play and fall asleep on the routine, Travis showed a constant commitment to detail throughout the season.  While his arm is below average and will restrict him to 2B (see also: his frame/athleticism), it will not be a concern at the keystone. Finally, Travis’ ability to turn the double play is well above-average—his extremely soft and quick hands and sufficiently quick transfer allowed FSU’s young pitchers to work around their mistakes throughout 2012.

Given Travis’ limited stolen base totals, thick frame, and knee operation, one would not expect the second baseman to be much of a burner.  Throughout the year I clocked Travis between 4.08 and 4.4 on home to first splits, with the majority of the times circa 4.2 and 4.25.  Viewed through lens of the 20-80 scouting scale, the righthanded hitting Travis grades out at plus to solid-average (60-55) runner. Again, given his frame and injury history, there is little room for further projection, so Travis will probably be a 55-50 runner over the course of his professional career.

At the plate Travis finished 2012 with a career best eight homeruns, hitting .325/.400/.504 in the process.  He particularly flashed his power late in the season, during the regional and super-regional games.  He also finished with a team best 24 doubles. Travis, like most other FSU hitters, is quiet at the plate and likes to let the ball get deep and hit off his backside.  His bat speed is probably average or solid-average and he ran into trouble when pitchers were able to pound him right below the hands.  Luckily, Travis rarely ran into the kind of pitcher that could consistently challenge him with the necessary command and velocity in his collegiate career. However, as he climbs the ladder professionally, Travis will have to prove that he can handle plus velocity in on the hands.  Furthermore, while Travis improved upon his plate discipline (which was questioned early in his career) and showed that he could work deep into counts he also had a tendency to flail at breaking balls in the dirt.  Again, Travis’ ability to read quality breaking balls out of the hand will be tested throughout his minor-league journey in the next couple of years. However, on the whole Travis was a solid hitter—mechanically nearly every hitter this side of Miguel Cabrera has a hole—and he showed the ability to consistently barrel balls and keep a level swing plane. 

When you put together the whole package, (I think) you get a plus (60-65) defender at 2B, with solid-average (55) speed, a potentially fringe-average (45) to average (50) hit tool, and below-average power (40) at an up-the-middle position.  So potentially, Travis profiles as a 50-player or a fringe-average everyday regular (solid value for a 14^th round pick, no?).  A scout that I talked to before the 2012 season started was not too high on Travis given his frame and questionable hit tool, but another scout that I talked to after the season (and after Travis had been drafted) was very complimentary of the second baseman and thought that he had an outside chance of playing in the big leagues.  Clearly, the Detroit Tigers organization was also high on Travis, as they handed out an over-slot bonus of $200,000 to their 13^th round pick.  According to Baseball America’s 2012 Draft Database only five other players drafted between the 10^th and 15^th rounds were awarded higher bonuses (Cardinals LHP Max Foody Cardinals, Braves OF Connor Lien, Rays C Taylor Hawkins C Rays, Mets RHP Chris Flexen, and Blue Jays LHP Ryan Borucki).

Travis signed with the Tigers relatively quickly (after FSU was eliminated from CWS) and played in 25 games with Detroit’s NYPL affiliate Connecticut before a hand injury ended his professional debut on August 4^th. The 21-year-old hit .280/.352/.441 with three homers in his 93 at-bats.  And while the preliminary results are encouraging, because he profiles only as a second baseman, a lot of pressure will be on the bat, and Travis’ ability to handle the lumber (and stay healthy) over the next two seasons will probably provide much more clarity on his future role.

Also, cool little article on his signing: http://www.pbgametime.com/news/ex-palm-beach-central-star-devon-travis-signs-pro-contract-with-detroit-tigers-will-forgo-senior-year-at-fsu/138750/

Thoughts on the Bristol White Sox

A couple of days ago I included some of my thoughts and observations about a number of players from the Burlington Royals, and today I am going to discuss what I saw from their opponents from July 4-6, the Bristol White Sox.  As I mentioned previously, I wrote a feature article on the White Sox’s first-round draft pick, Courtney Hawkins for Baseball America (link). 

The BA article was predominately positive, as it highlighted Hawkins’ raw tools and potential for future success.  Indeed, there is much to like about Hawkins.  Like Starling, Hawkins’ body immediately stands out.  However, unlike Starling, Hawkins does not need to add and probably should not add more muscle mass at this point in his career.  The 18-year-old is listed at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, which definitely appeared accurate in person.  Based on his size and athleticism alone, one can easily project power in Hawkins’ future, and a scout in attendance noted that Hawkins generates plus bat speed with his strong wrists.  While he patrolled center field for Bristol, the scout felt that Hawkins may have to move to a corner outfield spot down the road.  I agree and was a little disappointed by his speed, as Hawkins consistently turned in 4.4 and 4.5 seconds on home-to-first splits.  He does feature strong arm and looked to make instinctive reads off of the bat, so he should be fine in either outfield position.  At the plate Hawkins struggled a bit throughout the series.  The first game he was pitched backwards almost every at-bat, which he clearly was not expecting. He took a couple of ugly swings and did not hit a ball hard.  However, he showed some flashes of his potential in the final two games of the series, and he showed the ability to adjust to how pitchers attacked him.  After striking out on three straight fastballs in his 1^st AB of the second game, he jumped on a first pitch fastball and drove it for a double into the right-center field gap in his second at bat.  Similarly, later in the series he put together some good AB and drove a 2-2 slider back up the middle for a hard-hit single.  While I was at first expecting a bit more out of the first-round talent, I learned that it would be foolish to expect too much from a teenager getting his first taste of professional ball.  The bottom line is that Hawkins has the physical tool to succeed at the highest level—the ability to make key adjustments and respond to failure will ultimately determine just how far Hawkins will go.

Unfortunately, none of the other players that I saw for Bristol particularly caught my eye.  I asked the scout that I sat with for two of the games if there were any players to look out for, but he also seemed to think that Hawkins was the only real ‘guy’ that the team had.  With that being said, I still took down some notes on a handful of players, such as Nick Basto, James Hudelson, Steven Nikorak, Jake Cose and Jefferson Olacio. 

Olacio is the player with the most potential, as the 18-year-old is a 6-foot-7, 230 pound left-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic.  In his previous start Olacio had mowed down his competition, striking out seven in five innings of work and not walking any. However, against Burlington both his stuff and command were lacking any #veneno.  It seemed as if his command issue stemmed from inconsistent mechanics—he had a tendency to pitch with only his upper half.  An inconsistent release point combined with some significant arm drag led to a rather unremarkable performance in which Olacio’s fastball ranged from 87-90 mph and his breaking balls (79-82) were too often either 58-footers or spinning across the heart of plate.  When it was all said and done with Olacio had thrown four innings, allowed four runs on two hits and seven walks, while striking out three. While the start was not impressive by any means, it is important to recognize that Olacio is still on 18 years old and may still be growing into his body.  Over the next few years he must continue to work hard to refine his movements, mechanics, and feel for pitching in order to be more consistent.

Some brief thoughts on the other guys that I mentioned:

·         I expected more out of Nick Basto. The shortstop is a fifth-round pick from this year’s draft, but he is not an elite athlete and will probably have to move to second, or more likely third base down the line. He put together a couple of scrappy AB, but was overpowered by fringe-average fastballs in on his hands. The scout that I talked to was not very impressed and felt that he would turn into a punch-less 3^rd baseman.

·         3B Steve Nikorak (R/R 6’2, 215) made some nice plays defensively—one to his left and one to his right—that required accurate and strong throws from his knees.  While he flashed the leather and had an athletic body type, the bat was nothing special, and he is a 22-year-old that was just drafted out of college (Temple), so one would be wise to remain skeptical until he continues to hit up the minor-league ladder.

·         RHP Jake Cose (6’5, 180) is 21-years-old in his 2^nd year w/ Bristol who was drafted in the 27^th round of the 2011 draft.  He showed some decent stuff (88-91 FB, 78-81 SL, 78-81 CH) and has a projectable frame, but I think that if he was able to put on some more muscle mass he would be able to add some velo and improve a fringy arsenal into a more potent collection.

·         RHP James Hudelson (6’4, 200) is a 22 year old out of Missouri that is in his first season of professional ball. He featured a ¾ delivery that created some deception and a nice angle for his 88-90 mph 2-seamer.  He also flashed a couple of average sliders between 74-75 mph.  Given his age and limited upside, Hudelson’s ceiling appears to be a mid-relief type of guy.

"Scouting" in North Carolina

Last week I started my summer internship with Baseball America in Durham, North Carolina.  While the majority of my work for BA will be conducted within the confines of their main office, there are a number of minor league teams within two or three hours.  Earlier this week the site posted an article that I wrote about the Chicago White Sox’s recent first round pick, Courtney Hawkins, which you can read here (if you are a BA subscriber).  If you are not a BA subscriber, the basic gist of the piece is that while Hawkins is “struggling”, the 18-year old is still getting adjusted to the rigors of professional baseball and has the raw ingredients for a special major-league player. 

               

I was able to see Hawkins and a number of other notable and rather unremarkable young players last week, as I attended three games between the Burlington Royals and the Bristol White Sox of the Rookie-level Appalachian League, and one game between the Delmarva Shorebirds and the Hickory Crawdads of the Low-A South Atlantic League.   

               

                Today I’ll include some of my notes and thoughts on various Burlington Royals, but tomorrow or the next few days I will write about some players from Bristol, Delmarva, and Hickory.

                Burlington features a number of impressive players for such a low level of the minor leagues.  The first and most well-known is center fielder Bubba Starling, a first-round pick in 2011 who is a tremendous athlete.  Listed at 6-foot-4 and 180 pounds, Starling signed for around $5 million, spurning the Nebraska Cornhuskers football team for a chance to play professional baseball.  He is extremely athletic and the body absolutely looks the part.  He has the frame to add some more muscle mass as he grows older, but he definitely looks like he belongs when he steps on the field.  Even though I only saw three games, it was apparent that Starling is still raw, but the tools are there.  His swing has some holes in it and I think that he will struggle with quality breaking balls all the way up the ladder, but he generates bat speed and showed the ability to work the opposite field, as he smashed a low and away fastball (that was probably a ball) into the right-CF gap for a triple.  His arm and speed are both solid-average to plus tools, and scouts project plus-power onto his bat.

               

Burlington’s second baseman for the series was Kenny Diekroeger, a 21-year-old 4^th round pick in this past month’s draft from Stanford University.  You can read more about Diekroeger’s path to the big leagues from one of my fellow BA interns, John Sandberg, here.  Diekroeger has a solid build and good body and is listed at 6’2, 190, which seemed accurate when looking in person.  He moved over to shortstop for one game in the series, but he definitely profiles better at second base.  He is athletic and made a very nice play on a high chopper to his left that required an accurate, quick release.  While I only saw him make a few plays in the field, I’d say that he profiles as an average defensive second baseman.  Like most prospects, Diekroeger’s future will rely on his ability to hit.  While at Stanford he struggled to make a consistent impact, and his production actually decreased each season.  While his numbers have been solid thus far and he performed well in the series, I was not sold on his potential.  A couple of his hits were jam-shots and bleeders that found open space and I really believe that anything above average velocity will give Diekroeger trouble.  Given his age, I’d expect Diekroeger to move up to Low-A, if not High-A to start off 2013.  As he climbs the ladder we will truly see what kind of bat Diekroeger brings to the table.

               

Many of the other Royals were solid players, but lack the pedigree or notoriety of Starling and Diekroeger.  In the above referenced piece about Diekroger, is a short blog post on Terrance Gore, a diminutive 20-year-old outfielder with blazing speed.  He has a 30 (maybe 20) grade arm and will probably be reduced to a corner outfield spot (unless they are willing to take the defensive hit), which greatly reduces his value.  He has been rumored to be clocked at an astounding 3.8 seconds to first base from the right-side which grades out higher than “80” or elite, but I clocked him at a 4.03 while a scout I sat with had him a 3.95 on another occasion.  Regardless, Gore’s speed makes him an interesting prospect to keep an eye on.  I really liked a pair of left-handed starters that the Royals threw out, Patrick Conroy and Colin Rodgers, but because I was focused on Hawkins, Gore, and the other top guys (for my piece for Baseball America) I was not able to get as much detail as I’d like.  Regardless, here are some of my skeleton notes for the more under-the-radar Burlington guys:

·         LHP Patrick Conroy (6’4, 218), 20 years old, 1^st season out of J.C. (Marin CC in Cali), 32^nd round pick

o   86-89 FB

o   84-85 cutter

o   75-77 curve

o   Pitchability guy—still needs to polish some of his secondary command, but overall strong control

·         SS Humberto Arteaga (R/R, 6’1, 160), 18 year old out of Caracas

o   Listed as best fielder in Royal’s farm system by Baseball America, but I did not see it at all during the series

§  Made a couple of errors on routine plays, also did not appear to get to balls in the hole that I thought he had a shot for

§  Didn’t appear to be playing hard, running hard down the line

o   Good frame, body—can add mass down the road, needs to

o   F-8

o   5-3

o   1b (2-2 count; made nice adjustment—after missing slider earlier, went back up middle for hit)

·         RHP Jake Junis (6’3, 210), 29^th round out of Illinois HS in 2012

o   87-90 FB

o   78-81 CH

·         LHP Daniel Stumpf (6’2, 200), San Jacinto College, 21 years old, 9^th round pick in 2012

o   Good CH

o   Late life, burst on FB

·         LHP Colin Rodgers (6’0, 180), 3^rd round pick in 2012 out of LA HS, 18 years old

o   86-88 FB

o   82-83 SL/CT (scout said created good angle with arm action)

o   72-75 CRV

o   74-75 CH