It is August 1st and the trade deadline is officially over, although there are sure to be a few waiver deals in the next few weeks as well. However, for all intents and purposes all of the major wheeling and dealing has been done until the end of the 2011 season. If baseball is considered to be America's pastime, then analyzing trade-deadline trades (and roster management in general) could arguably be considered a close second as anybody is who is anybody in the baseball world has opined about the many deals in the last few days. Because I, like so many others, am striving for 'relevancy' (via Hipster Runoff) I figured that would do something similar and discuss three trades in particular.
However, before getting into any "analysis", I think that it is important to understand that there are no real "winners" or "losers" yet. Some of the deals may have been done for a few days and guys like Hunter Pence or Colby Rasmus may have already played a few games for their new teams, but it is far too early to definitively say that this franchise "won" the deal while so-and-so are deadline "losers." Every trade and roster move in general has to be taken in context, but oftentimes such considerations are afterthoughts in the spectacle that is the 24-hour news cycle. The true trade deadline "winners" and "losers" will be revealed within the next three, four, or five years.
Cleveland Rox, Ubaldo (70-grade pun)
Ubaldo Jimenez was dealt after all, but it was to the Cleveland Indians, not the Sox or the Yanks or even the Texas Rangers, all teams known for making a big splash around the trading deadline. Instead it was Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro who made the most surprising deal of the deadline (year maybe). Jimenez was traded to CLE in return for a package of prospects that include RHP Alex White, 1B Matt McBride, RHP Joe Gardner, and PTBNL (will be LHP Drew Pomeranz).
Media heads and stat heads alike were both surprised by the trade and many people are not sure what to make of it. It seems as if some people are giving CLE daps for going after the big horse, while others are wondering if they gave up to much to get a Ubaldo Jimenez that has not been as dominant or consistent as he was for the first 3 months of 2010. I'm not a true talent evaluator and I certainly don't know as much about sabermetrics and advanced statistics as many other bloggers and baseball personalities, but I think that this trade makes more sense than it does on the surface.
CLE is only 2.5 games back of DET right now and they have somehow managed to keep themselves in the division race without a true ace and an overall average pitching staff. Sure, Justin Masterson has been great this season and Tomlin and Huff have been acceptable as mid-to back end rotation guys, but the Indians undoubtedly needed somebody with the ability to miss more bats than the cast that they had. Jimenez's stuff has fallen off this year, as reports are that his fastball is averaging 2 MPH less. Similarly, his K/9 has decreased from 2010, but his pure stuff is still light-years ahead of every other CLE starter. Furthermore, Jimenez's friendly contract also played a role as he is under team control at an affordable rate for the next two and a half seasons (with a 2014 option).
Therefore, I find it hard to believe the argument that CLE is chasing the division this season. They are definitely trying to compete this year, but when one looks at the trade deeper it seems as if adding Jimenez was actually a move that will pay out higher down the road. Many of CLE's position players are young and promising prospects (3B Lonnie Chisenhall, 2B Jason Kipnis), others have recently established themselves as stars (SS Asdrubal Cabrera, C/1B Carlos Santana), and others are All-Star caliber who have produced (for the most part) when healthy (RF Shin-Soo Choo, DH Travis Hafner, and CF Grady Sizemore). In all actuality CLE might not make the playoffs this year--like I said the position players are relatively young and the pennant race may very well wear them down. However, in getting Jimenez (it appears that) the Indians have put themselves in position to compete in the AL Central for years to come.
[Exhibit A: Baseball Prospectus only gives the Indians a 7.6% chance of reaching they playoffs (see http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/)].
Many have wondered why the Rockies traded Jimenez at all. Like I mentioned earlier he comes at a reduced price through 2014. There is no doubt that the Jimenez and the Rockies franchise both struggled to meet high expectations this year, as many considered the Rox to be NL West contendors and Jimenez to be a Cy Young candidate. Letting go of Jimenez was even more interesting considering that this offseason the Rockies signed OF Carlos Gonzalez and SS Troy Tulowitzki to large multi-year contracts with the intent of building a franchise around these three. However, the Rockies have struggled mightily in both the offensive and pitching departments and obviously felt that CLE's package of prospects was good enough to offset the loss of Ubaldo. According to Baseball Prospectus' excellent Kevin Goldstein, RHP Alex White profiles as a third or fourth starter, but has been a harder prospect to evaluate because he features a rare FB, SPL, CH arsenal. He also notes that White may be an option in the bullpen. Regardless, White has already pitched in the bigs this year and he figures to slide somewhere into the Rockies staff right away. Goldstein also profiles RHP Gardner as more of a pitch-to-contact sinker type of pitcher, but notes that he has struggled a bit this year in AA. Similarly, Goldstein is a bit lukewarm on 1B McBride who is a converted catcher. The PTBNL is LHP Drew Pomeranz, CLE's first round pick in 2010. Pomeranz is a big lefty from Ole Miss that features a low-mid 90s fastball and a great curveball. Goldstein pegs Pomeranz as a #3 type starter until he develops his changeup, but I see Pomeranz as a current #2 type with the outside possibility of a #1 down the road. Pomeranz should be up in the big leagues by the end of 2012 if not sooner.
Rasmus heads north, Edwin Jackson changes ballcaps yet again
Since my analysis of the last trade was a bit longer than I thought it would be, I will attempt to be more concise in my analysis of the 11-player 3-team deal that sent OF Colby Rasmus, LHPs Trever Miller and Brian Tallet, 3B Mark Teahen, and RHP PJ Walter to the Toronto Blue Jays.....Edwin Jackson, Cory Patterson, and RHP Octavio Dotel, LHP Marc Rzepczynski to the St. Louis Cardinals....and RHP Jason Frasor and RHP Zach Stewart to the Chicago White Sox. In short, I like the deal for the Blue Jays. I mean I really like the move by the Blue Jays. Saber-nerds and the blogosphere have been talking about TOR GM Alex Anthopoulous for months, especially his aggressive tactics in the draft and the international market, and this trade again has people praising A.A. In essence, the Blue Jays traded a veteran borderline OF (Patterson), an aging relatively mediocre right arm (Dotel), a quality, but soon to be 34-year old reliever (Frasor) and a pretty good 26 year old LHP in Rzepcyznski (has been good out of pen, could be mid-back of rotation type) for a potential star center fielder, two veteran LH relievers, and a throw in RHP.
Much has been said about Rasmus' attitude "problems" in STL and the fact that his numbers are down this year. However, there isn't much debate about Rasmus' ceiling and potential as a star center fielder. Even if Rasmus is unable to stay in CF, given that defensive metrics have rated Rasmus extremely poor the past few years, his potential power numbers would allow him to slide into a corner OF spot without losing too much value. In Rasmus, Eric Thames, Travis Snider, and Jose Bautista (and Rajai Davis if they choose to keep him) the Toronto Blue Jays have a promising a versatile core of outfielders to build around. Again, as much I as like the trade for TOR on paper and the aggressiveness of Anthopoulous, we still must wait to see how this plays out and avoid jumping to any conclusions days after the deal has commenced.
Even though I feel as if TOR got the better of the deal (potentially) I still respect what STL did, as they acquired Edwin Jackson (poor guy has been traded 5 times already and he's only 27), a SP who may never reach his ceiling of bonafide ace, but has quietly become more reliable and has developed into a solid #3 pitcher in the last few years. Furthermore, Rz.... is another quality arm and will fill the void of Miller and Tallet. Dotel is a shell of his former self but still has some "veteran presence" and Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa always seem to make old guys work for a short period of time (Miguel Batista).
Bedard: Relevant?
The Boston Red Sox were not able to acquire Ubaldo Jimenez (see above) but they did manage to secure some pitching depth by adding Erik Bedard from the Mariners in a 3-team deal. Bedard has been extremely injury prone since his move to Seattle from Baltimore a few years ago but can still be a quality starter when healthy. The lefty has a low-90s FB with a sharp breaking ball that is especially effective against lefties. In Bedard, the Red Sox are getting someone who has AL East experience. They are undoubtedly hoping that Bedard will be able to slow down Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, and turn around switch hitters Mark Teixera and Nick Swisher.
Boston traded away OF Chih-Hsien Chiang (to SEA) and C Tim Federowicz, RHP Stephen Fife, and RHP Juan Rodriguez (all to LAD) to acquire Bedard. Chiang played in the 2011 Futures Game a few weeks ago and has been hitting very well in the AA Eastern League for Portland. I don't know much about Federowicz, Fife, and Rodriguez but knowledgeable Kevin Goldstein profiles all as fringe-type prospects, Fedro as backup catcher material, Rodriguez as a young power pitcher still years away, and Fife as a middle-reliever (via Baseball Prospectus).
After receiving these prospects the Dodgers proceeded to trade OF Trayvon Robinson to SEA to complete the 3-team trade. Robinson has been mashing in AAA this year, is a switch hitter, with plus speed and projects as an everyday outfielder in the show. All in all, SEA seems to have gotten a good pair of prospects for Bedard, while the Red Sox got what they needed (pitching depth) for a relatively low price, while the Dodgers traded away one of their better positional prospects for three lesser prospects.
????
It is common for people in the media and semi-bloggers like myself to throw around labels such as "winners" and "losers", but we do so because it is easy. In actuality trades and roster moves take weeks, months, and years to properly evaluate. Why did STL trade Rasmus away? Perhaps the front office and advance scouts saw a pattern in his swing or his attitude. Maybe they felt that they could slide Jon Jay over in from right to center and that he could handle the transition. Maybe they have another player in the minors that will be ready next year. There are so many variables that go into trades that it can be difficult to understand why certain moves are made. Although the Dodgers traded away Trayvon Robinson and received three "marginal" prospects in return, how can I or anyone else adequately say that they are the "losers", at least right now? The answer is we can't, at least not yet. Furthermore, how would one define a successful trade...if Mark Rzepczyski won Game 7 of the World Series this year for STL, but never contributed again while Colby Rasmus developed into a perrenial All-Star which team would be the "winner" or "loser"? These kinds of questions always tend to arise around the trading deadline and are why its important not to jump to conclusions.
No comments:
Post a Comment