Thursday, May 10, 2012

5/6/12 and 5/7/12: Bryan Evans, Jake Smolinski, Kyle Jensen, and others Chase the Dream


I finished yesterday’s post discussing Diamondbacks LHP prospect Tyler Skaggs. His counterpart on Monday afternoon’s start was RHP Bryan Evans.  

Bryan Evans

This was the third time that I have been able to see Evans pitch, as I had seen him pitch twice last year (once against Tampa Bay Ray prospect Jesus Colome and once against Trevor Bauer).  Here is what I had to say about Evans’ first start last season:

Colome's counterpart on Wednesday night was Bryan Evans, a 14th round draft pick out of UC-Davis in  2008.  Evans, 24, has spent the better part of the past two years in Florida State League and the Midwest League and is probably not projected to be a true prospect.  His minor-league K/IP statistics are not all that impressive and his arsenal is not made up of typical swing-and-miss type stuff.  However, I came away liking what I saw from Evans, even though there have been thousands of pitchers with similar stuff that have never sniffed the big leagues.  Evans' delivery is a bit complicated and it appears as if when he releases the ball he is throwing across his body or is facing the hitter at an extreme angle.  His arm angle is over-the-top and the best comparison that I can give is kind of a hybrid mix between Josh Collmenter and Jered Weaver.  The scouts were clearly there to see Colome (even though Evans was also just recently called up to AA), as most put their radar guns down when Evans was on the mound.  However, I was able to see from those that did keep the guns out that Evans' fastball sat at 85-90 mph, his slider clocked in around 81 mph, and his curve/slurve measured in at 74 mph.  I did not get a good read on what the velocity was on his changeup, but the pitch did feature some arm-side run (although he did telegraph a few by slowing down his windup considerably).  His fastball also featured some good arm-side run and he was able to sneak some in on right handed hitters.  Evans' pure stuff was nowhere near as dominant as Colome's but his line was a bit better for the night as he went 6+ innings (walked first two guys in 7th) for the win, giving up 6 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, while striking out 6.  Evans' future is nowhere near as bright as Colome's given his age and lack of velo, but his windup and pitching mechanics were deceptive enough to hitters that he was able to strike out 6 in 6 innings of work.  Given that this was only his 3rd appearance and 1st start in AA, it remains to be seen if hitters will be able to adjust and exploit Evans' pedestrian stuff or if his pitchability and deception will allow him to succeed and climb the ladder of professional baseball.

He struggled in his second start of 2011, against Trevor Bauer.  Here is what I wrote about that specific outing:

A player that I profiled previously, RHP Bryan Evans started opposite Trevor Bauer but had a very poor evening, as he struggled to find the strike zone (walked opposing SP Bauer twice) and his line read 3.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 4 K. Evans’ was not very consistent with any of his pitches, but especially his slider which seemed to be much more flat than the previous outing that I was able to see (IMO his curveball still seems to be the sharper breaking ball and a better option than the slider, even though he throws it only around 74-75 mph).  His FB velocity was still between 85-91 mph but again his command was sharp enough and he paid it, after being pulled early.

Evans finished 2011 in AA Jacksonville after dominating High-A (as a 24-year old) and posted solid numbers.  However, his strikeout rate was not impressive (only 27 in 37.1 IP or 6.5/9 IP). 

After seeing him this past Monday, I am not convinced that Evans can pitch in the big leagues. The first time I saw him, I noted that Evans’ delivery was deceptive.  However, Evans’ pure stuff leaves much to be desired so his command and sequencing need to be very sharp for him succeed as he climbs the ladder.  Recently, his command has been very mediocre, and he has actually walked more batters (24) than he has struck out (21) in just 30.2 innings of work.  Pitchers like Evans cannot succeed consistently with spotty command.  I had originally believed that Evans could turn into a back of the rotation innings eater if everything broke right, but after seeing him a few more times I think that if Evans is to ever make a MLB roster it will be as a middle-reliever or swingman.

Jake Smolinski

Last year I also got the chance to see Jake Smolinski (JAX) play a handful of times and here is what I had to say about him:

 Jake Smolinski, a 22 year old OF for the Jacksonville Suns was drafted in the 2nd round out of high school by the Washington Nationals.  He was traded to the Florida Marlins organization with Emilio Bonifacio for Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham.  Smolinski is a converted 2B/3B that flashed some decent athleticism in the games that I attended.  He hit towards the bottom of the order, which is surprising for such a high draft pick, but nonetheless he put together quality ABs and was 2-3 off of Chris Archer. This is Smolinski's first season in AA and he has played pretty well so far and has been able to draw more walks, even though he only is hitting .259.  Overall, Smolinski looked like a pretty solid player and profiles as a 4th OF or maybe a 2nd-division starter type if he remains as a corner OF.

Smolinski finished 2011 in AA Jacksonville hitting. 245/.342/.364 with 26 2B and 7 HR. The first thing that I noticed this season was that Smolinski appeared to have filled out a little bit more.  The media guide listed him at 6’0, 205 and he clearly looked the part, with an athletic frame.   Now 23 years old, Smolinski is hitting .325/.440/.482 with 9 2B (and 0 HR) through 22 games with Jacksonville.  Smolinski’s value would be much greater if he could handle center field, but I clocked him at a slightly-below average 4.4 and 4.5 to first base so he is going to be limited to a corner spot.  His lack of raw power has to be slightly disconcerting, but he has a level-swing plane and has proved that he has solid gap-to-gap power.  At this point, Smolinski appears to a traditional tweener—not enough power to handle a corner and not athletic/fast enough to play in center field.  However, with his ability to get on base and put the bat on the ball he may still end up as a 2nd-division starter.

Kyle Jensen

Last season I also saw Kyle Jensen play a couple of games in right field for the Jacksonville Suns.  Here is what I had to say about him:

The Suns’ RF Kyle Jensen was pretty impressive in both games that I saw (again limited sample size) as he showed the ability to barrel balls the other way (off Jarrod Parker) and flashed nice range in right field.

Jensen, a left-handed hitter clocked a 4.8 to 1st base and looked below-average out in right field on Sunday night.  Suffice it to say, I was a bit off base in my observations last season.  As a 23-year old Jensen crushed Hi-A pitching in Jupiter and his numbers fell off a bit when promoted to Jacksonville towards the end on 2011.  Thus far he is struggling a bit at the plate.  I did not get to see Jensen play on Monday, but he (like many other Suns hitters) was overmatched by Trevor Bauer.  He has some power in the bat, but he is limited defensively and turns 24 on May 20th so he does not profile as a true prospect.  He may have some value as a bat-only 4th OF/1B/DH type.

Sutil and Gilbert

A couple of Mobile Bay Bears caught my eye initially, but I quickly found out that they were journeymen chasing the dream.  SS Wladimir Sutil made a solid play to his left and flashed a strong arm, but the Venezuelan is 27 years old and is playing in AA for a fifth consecutive season.  CF Archie Gilbert was picked off by Jose Alvarez in Sunday night’s game, which led me to believe that Gilbert was a young player learning the nuances of professional baseball.  However, Gilbert is actually a soon to be 29-year old, so even though he showed a short, compact swing and hit 12 HRs last year in the Eastern League, he is not a true prospect either. 

Matt Davidson

Finally, Mobile 3B Matt Davidson caught my eye as well.  I did not do any research going into the series so I had not heard of Davidson before Sunday, but his solid numbers and role as cleanup hitter piqued my interest.  He has a “bad” body with some baby fat and looked like he might have to move to 1st base in the future if he did not get into better shape.  Regardless, I liked his approach at the plate, and statistics show that he has been able to work more walks. Furthermore, Baseball Prospectus’ Jason Parks recently wrote about Davidson and noted that his footwork (defensively) and offensive approach have improved since his inaugural season.  Davidson was a supplemental first-round pick in 2009 and a .310/.433/.534 slash line as a 21 year old in AA shows that Davidson can hit.  I hope to see Davidson play again this season for a further and more complete evaluation.

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