Monday, October 1, 2012

I'm Back?!?!


Hello? It has been two and a half months since my last post and I don’t have much of an excuse for my lack of updates/profiles. While I was interning at Baseball America I had the opportunity to see many minor league games in the Durham/Raleigh/Burlington area. I had meant to keep writing and updating the blog during my free time, but too often I would come home from a game or the Baseball America offices and just veg out and watch Netflix (Tim Riggins is my hero). 

Luckily, I kept notes upon notes upon notes on players that I saw, and I promised myself that I would begin writing down my observations when I had time. Now, after a week of “acclimating myself” back home, and fully removed from my internship with BA, I’m up to the task.  Hopefully, given my newfound abundance of leisure time, I will be posting something every (week)day for the foreseeable future.

Today, instead of starting out with a player that I saw over the summer, I will offer up a portrait of somebody I this past spring in Tallahassee—former Florida State and current Tigers 2B Devon Travis.  As a lifelong Seminole fan, even as a young pup growing up in New Jersey, I had been able to catch a few FSU games on ESPNU and in the CWS the past few years, and I liked what I saw from Travis.  But having seen him firsthand circa 20 times this spring, I really fell in love with his game (even though I tend to wax poetic about little second basemen).

Player: Devon Travis
Position: 2B
Bats/Throws: R/R
Hometown/HS: Wellington , Florida/Palm Beach Central HS
Drafted: 13th round and 424th overall pick by the Detroit Tigers

Background/Stats: Undrafted out of high school, Travis earned first-team all-state honors as a senior at Palm Beach Central High School, but profiled best as a college player given his relative lack of loud tools. Upon enrolling in Florida State, Travis quickly established himself and started 46 games as a true freshman in 2010. He hit .276/.331/.436 and was 5-6 in SB attempts in his first collegiate action. As a sophomore in 2011, with the new BBCOR bats that limited offensive production nationwide, Travis improved his line to .329/.455/.519 and was 5-10 in SB attempts.

Firsthand Observations: Upon first glance Travis does not stand out. Listed a 5’9 and 183 pounds, Travis has thick legs, a squat frame, and is clearly maxed out physically with no room for projection.  Additionally, after a couple of solid collegiate seasons in 2010 and 2011, Travis underwent knee surgery so going into 2012 there were significant questions about his speed and lateral quickness. 

However, throughout the 2012 season, Travis erased any of my personal doubts, and did much to bolster Coach Mike Martin’s effusive praise about his speedy recovery and commitment to rehab/offseason workouts.  He flashed tremendous lateral movement, especially to his left and had the knack for making the sensational play.  Additionally, while countless other collegiate and young amateur players may make the spectacular play and fall asleep on the routine, Travis showed a constant commitment to detail throughout the season.  While his arm is below average and will restrict him to 2B (see also: his frame/athleticism), it will not be a concern at the keystone. Finally, Travis’ ability to turn the double play is well above-average—his extremely soft and quick hands and sufficiently quick transfer allowed FSU’s young pitchers to work around their mistakes throughout 2012.

Given Travis’ limited stolen base totals, thick frame, and knee operation, one would not expect the second baseman to be much of a burner.  Throughout the year I clocked Travis between 4.08 and 4.4 on home to first splits, with the majority of the times circa 4.2 and 4.25.  Viewed through lens of the 20-80 scouting scale, the righthanded hitting Travis grades out at plus to solid-average (60-55) runner. Again, given his frame and injury history, there is little room for further projection, so Travis will probably be a 55-50 runner over the course of his professional career.

At the plate Travis finished 2012 with a career best eight homeruns, hitting .325/.400/.504 in the process.  He particularly flashed his power late in the season, during the regional and super-regional games.  He also finished with a team best 24 doubles. Travis, like most other FSU hitters, is quiet at the plate and likes to let the ball get deep and hit off his backside.  His bat speed is probably average or solid-average and he ran into trouble when pitchers were able to pound him right below the hands.  Luckily, Travis rarely ran into the kind of pitcher that could consistently challenge him with the necessary command and velocity in his collegiate career. However, as he climbs the ladder professionally, Travis will have to prove that he can handle plus velocity in on the hands.  Furthermore, while Travis improved upon his plate discipline (which was questioned early in his career) and showed that he could work deep into counts he also had a tendency to flail at breaking balls in the dirt.  Again, Travis’ ability to read quality breaking balls out of the hand will be tested throughout his minor-league journey in the next couple of years. However, on the whole Travis was a solid hitter—mechanically nearly every hitter this side of Miguel Cabrera has a hole—and he showed the ability to consistently barrel balls and keep a level swing plane. 

When you put together the whole package, (I think) you get a plus (60-65) defender at 2B, with solid-average (55) speed, a potentially fringe-average (45) to average (50) hit tool, and below-average power (40) at an up-the-middle position.  So potentially, Travis profiles as a 50-player or a fringe-average everyday regular (solid value for a 14th round pick, no?).  A scout that I talked to before the 2012 season started was not too high on Travis given his frame and questionable hit tool, but another scout that I talked to after the season (and after Travis had been drafted) was very complimentary of the second baseman and thought that he had an outside chance of playing in the big leagues.  Clearly, the Detroit Tigers organization was also high on Travis, as they handed out an over-slot bonus of $200,000 to their 13th round pick.  According to Baseball America’s 2012 Draft Database only five other players drafted between the 10th and 15th rounds were awarded higher bonuses (Cardinals LHP Max Foody Cardinals, Braves OF Connor Lien, Rays C Taylor Hawkins C Rays, Mets RHP Chris Flexen, and Blue Jays LHP Ryan Borucki).

Travis signed with the Tigers relatively quickly (after FSU was eliminated from CWS) and played in 25 games with Detroit’s NYPL affiliate Connecticut before a hand injury ended his professional debut on August 4th. The 21-year-old hit .280/.352/.441 with three homers in his 93 at-bats.  And while the preliminary results are encouraging, because he profiles only as a second baseman, a lot of pressure will be on the bat, and Travis’ ability to handle the lumber (and stay healthy) over the next two seasons will probably provide much more clarity on his future role.



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